Wednesday, November 23, 2022

BOMBSHELL Channel 4 poll suggests the court ruling has riled up the Scottish public so much that *60% or 61%* now say they will vote SNP in 2024 to get Scotland out of the United Kingdom. The Supreme Court justices are the toast of the independence movement this evening.

Thanks to Marcia for pointing me in the direction of a full-scale Scottish poll conducted by Find Out Now for Channel 4 News with frankly astounding speed after the Supreme Court verdict.

Would you vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? (Find Out Now / Channel 4 News, 23rd November 2022)

Yes 50%
No 33%

Excluding Don't Knows and 'Prefer Not To Says', that works out as approximately Yes 60%, No 40%.

Would you vote SNP at the next general election if your vote would be used as a mandate to negotiate independence with the UK Government?

Yes 51%
No 33%

That works out as roughly Yes 61%, No 39% without Don't Knows and Won't Says.

These are obviously extraordinarily good numbers, which at the very least seem to point to some kind of outright majority for independence in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.  It's particularly striking that respondents were not put off by the pejorative wording about "leaving the UK", which normally dramatically reduces support.  However, these numbers also raise question marks about how polling can be accurately conducted for a plebiscite election, because it's obviously pretty unlikely that a more conventional voting intention poll would show the SNP as high as 60% or 61%.  It looks like the hypothetical nature of the question, and the failure to name other parties as alternatives, may have produced a distorted outcome - but there'd be a different sort of problem if you just asked a conventional voting intention question, because that might underestimate the SNP vote due to respondents not taking into account the plebiscite element.  It's really not straightforward.

And another point that occurred to me today: will pollsters actually bother asking for referendum voting intentions anymore, now that we know there isn't going to be a referendum?  I'll almost certainly still ask for that question to be put in when I commission the next Scot Goes Pop poll (hopefully in the not too distant future), but I'll be interested to see what others do.

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21 comments:

  1. No mention on mainstream media.

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  2. The skeptic in me wants to think this isn't a big deal, but this seems significant.

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  3. The SNP could make a start by taking down the union flag flying in front of Holywood but they won't. Pathetic people.

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  4. While considering all the caveats around the non standard questioning, the fact that this result was produced AFTER the Supreme Court ruling seems very significant.

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  5. Walking to the demo in the cold and early November night, I didn’t pick up any excitement heading into town and down the high street. When I rounded the corner to see the crowd, I wasn’t sure if it was just the lack of lighting or if this really was just half the turnout on a similarly timed Brexit night not so long ago. I’m not young, yet most the crowd was older than me, more so than on the marches I remember. I wasn’t in a good mood. At least manky jacket couldn’t drown out the stage’s sound system or the pipes.

    This polling alone gives me hope. Be real and sustained, for the love of Scotland as a place and people at all.

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  6. Sturgeon would be willing to lead a relatively easy fight if these numbers hold - the truth is, we shouldn't have to fight hard to win.

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  7. This is an earth shattering Poll.

    Almost too good to be true.

    Even Kenny Farq writing thoughtful pieces.

    Goodness know what happens next.

    Unity of thought now required.

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  8. I watched the C4 programme and being a typical Britnat media they mentioned the poll but did not mention the ACTUAL figures re voting SNP only saying a majority.
    On the other hand the actual figs in the poll re "What's more important to you." 61% Scottish economy and public services -against - 26% Scottish independence were mentioned. This is the type of thing the Britnat media do all the time. Emphasise any info against independence and play down any info positive for Scottish independence.

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  9. I'm guessing it's reasonable to assume it also means that Wales is officially a colony as well.

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  10. I'm going to spell it out nice and clearly for the WGD numpties.

    Sturgeon could have established this illegal verdict years and years ago but she didn't want to because it meant she couldn't keep claiming vote SNP for Indyref2 at multiple elections. Now she has updated the con to vote SNP to save Scottish democracy. Sturgeon is a parasite on the independence movement not a leader.
    All you numpties who claimed there would be a referendum in 2021 or 2022 or the first half of this Scottish Parliament. For Scotland's sake wake up.

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    1. Hamish100 seems to think I live in Bath. That is the extent of the deep thinking that goes on in WGD as to why despite the big dug, Irish Skier, Sturgeon and all the rest saying there definitely would be a referendum in this Scottish parliamentary term it is me who is at fault for telling the truth about the matter. It seems numpties will never ever take their heads out the sand.

      Sturgeon told us way back in her Jan 2020 speech that there would be no illegal referendum. It seems lots of people just did not listen. I did listen and then watched as she set about ensuring that a referendum would be declared illegal by a court in London set up only a few years ago. That's the truth. Numpties just cannae handle the truth.

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  11. Yes by the Scottish government taking this to the Supreme Court they have forced the court to open Pandora’s box, it’s does look good for the government down south.

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  12. It's not only Britnats who are at it in giving out misleading info. A reminder that the WGD Skier of many nationalities posted that Sturgeon said she would carry out a referendum with or without Westminsters permission. What Skier DELIBERATELY missed out were the words that followed on from that in the same sentence saying: but only if it is lawful and constitutional.
    You also have Campbell on Wings with his misleading flat line graph for yes polling. Not to mention the Irish Skier and his Ski slope graph for yes that would eventually show 100% yes.

    Personally, I am totally sick of all the lies and misrepresentation from whatever source.

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  13. James,

    If and when you get round to carrying out your next poll might it be worth considering the question:

    "Would you vote for a candidate if that person stood solely on a 'Scotland United - pro Independence' manifesto - Yes/No/Don't Know?"

    And for both UK and Scottish General elections?

    What do you think?

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    1. Good idea. The exact wording will be fiddly. Even I'd think twice about supporting someone running under "Scotland United". I'd want to know the circumstances. Was there also an SNP candidate? Who is in this umbrella group? Etc. The pollster's not going to tell you, so the quality of the answer turns murky.

      My assumption is the plebiscite election is SNP policy and, in their usual style, they call the shots, name the candidates, and they'll all be running as "SNP (some faff about this being a plebiscite on indy)" so as to keep the brand.

      Some Naws I know are loyal SNP voters. Getting them to vote for Indy without the SNP name on it and Nicola undisputed at the summit would be a tall order.

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    2. It could be Scotland Und/SNP, Scotland Und/ISP, Scotland Und/SSP, Scotland Und/Green, Scotland Und/Alba Party etc. You then identify the 'badge' but the Scotland United votes could be tallied under the one total.

      The difficulty is in gaining seats at both Westminster and the constituency leg of Holyrood elections where the number of seats garnered could be at risk due to splitting over candidates (although the votes can again be accumulated under the SU umbrella).

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  14. WGD numpty Eildh says:-" As it stands at the moment democracy in Scotland is truly dead." Democracy in Scotland was never born.

    Irish or is it Welsh Skier these days says:- " I personally will never give up until democracy is restored to Scotland." It was never ever there in the first place.

    This idea of Scottish democracy was always a delusion, a con trick of the UK union and so many people fall for it. England rules - it is simple as that. If we want democracy in Scotland we need to be free and independent of the UK. The SNP want to be pals with the people who are denying us freedom and democracy. They want us to be nice to them. That will achieve nothing. We are on the road to nowhere.

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  15. This should be a big wake up call for the WGD numpties especially the racist Britnat, mad as a bucket of frogs British/Irish liar Skier, a liar since 2013, who never goes skiing, draws ski slope ski jump graphs on his blog that nobody reads, says he has a French wife and now speaks Welsh.

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  16. My guess is that they'll move the goalposts and cla it has to be >50% of all people registered to vote to have legitimacy. Of course nothing will be enough and it'll take direct action.

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