Wednesday, June 29, 2022

A reminder of the mountain of polling evidence that the Scottish public strongly support the "Plan B" options for seeking a mandate for independence if the UK Government continue to refuse a Section 30

As I mentioned yesterday, I've used several of the full-scale Scottish opinion polls that I've commissioned for Scot Goes Pop over the last two-and-a-half years to test public opinion on a range of "Plan B" options for seeking to secure an independence mandate if the UK Government remains intransigent on a Section 30 order.  It might be worth refreshing our memories of the exact results of those polls in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon's announcement.  As you can see below, no matter which "Plan B" option was presented and no matter how the question was posed, there was consistently clear public support for the proposition that the Scottish Government should circumvent any attempted Westminster veto and find a way of giving Scottish voters the promised choice on independence.

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 28th-31st January 2020: 

There are differing legal opinions on whether the Scottish Parliament currently has the power to hold a consultative referendum on independence without Westminster’s permission. If the UK government continues to refuse to give permission, do you think the Scottish Parliament should legislate to hold a referendum and then allow the courts to decide whether it can take place? 

Yes 50% 
No 39% 

With Don't Knows excluded:

Yes 56% 
No 44% 

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Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 1st-5th June 2020: 

If Boris Johnson and the UK Government manage to block an independence referendum, do you think that pro-independence parties such as the SNP and the Greens should consider including an outright promise of independence in their manifestos for a future election, to give people an opportunity to vote for or against the idea? 
 
Yes 49% 
No 29% 

With Don't Knows excluded: 

Yes 63% 
No 37%

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Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 5th-11th November 2020:

Imagine that the pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in next year's Scottish Parliament election, but the UK Government still refuses to agree to an independence referendum. In that scenario, do you think the Scottish Government should ensure the Scottish people are given a choice on independence over the course of the next parliamentary term, or should it accept that the UK Government has a veto on an independence referendum? 

The Scottish Government should ensure the Scottish people are given a choice on independence: 63%

The Scottish Government should accept that the UK Government has a veto on an independence referendum: 37%

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Scot Goes Pop / Survation poll, 11th-13th January 2021:

The UK Government has stated that it will seek to prevent a Scottish independence referendum taking place for several decades, regardless of whether Scottish voters elect a Scottish Government committed to holding a referendum. In view of this stance, do you think pro-independence parties, such as the SNP and the Scottish Greens, should or should not include an outright independence pledge in their manifestos for this year's scheduled Scottish Parliament election, to give people the opportunity to vote for or against independence? 

Should: 45% 
Should not: 36% 

With Don't Knows excluded: 

Should: 55% 
Should not: 45%

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Although there's been a certain amount of coincidental convergence in recent times between Stuart Campbell's analysis of the political situation and my own, as a matter of principle I really must call out the dodgy graph he keeps punting as supposed proof that support for independence has remained static at 47% during the entirety of Nicola Sturgeon's reign as First Minister.  It's an absolute embarrassment which makes a typical Lib Dem bar graph look statistically robust.  Judging from the small print, what he appears to have done is cherry-picked six individual polls, which are not even comparable with each other due to being conducted by different firms, and which just happen to all show a Yes vote of 47%.  The problem, of course, is that those individual polls are not representative of the state of polling in each given year.  The average Yes vote in 2019 was significantly higher than the average Yes vote in 2018.  The average Yes vote in 2020 was significantly higher than in 2019, and was in the majority for the first time.  There was then a sharp dip in 2021.

This is what is so self-defeating about what Stuart is doing.  The actual trend would give him the perfect basis for charging the Scottish Government with building up a sizeable Yes lead in 2020 and then losing it again in 2021 due to a number of mis-steps.  But instead he wants to peddle a fantasy of a flatlining trend which the facts simply do not even come close to supporting.  If you want to look like you're putting together a forensic case, it's always best to underpin it with the truth, rather than doing a Donald Trump. 

(And of course Stuart is also wrong with his claim - that he's repeated yet again - that the SNP had some kind of arithmetical leverage in the Commons prior to the 2019 general election which they could have used to gain a Section 30 in return for facilitating Brexit.  The reality is that Theresa May wouldn't have touched a deal of that sort with a bargepole, but I've rehearsed that point multiple times.)

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28 comments:

  1. Thanks for the reminder. IMO continued unionist intransigence can only result in stronger support for the Scottish government to do everything possible to secure a way for a vote on independence.

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    1. In only two weeks the narrative has gone from there definitely will be a referendum in October 2023 to the Scottish Government must do everything it can to secure a vote on independence. Crikey, the no ifs no buts didnae last long.

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    2. Another possibility is that a single post on here from "Anonymous" doesn't constitute "the narrative"

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    3. This is just more of Sturgeon's gaslighting. There will be no referendum next year because the Supreme Court will rule against her. Even a failed lawyer like Sturgeon knows this - all she has done is kick the can down the road yet again to the next Westminster election by which time she may well be off to one of those 'gender equality' sinecures for which she has been busy networking these last few years.

      Scotland's Lady Hee Haw has no interest in independence or indeed anything but herself and her next lucrative career move. She is many things - a fraud, an imposter, a charlatan, but she is NOT an independencista and any campaign under her baleful 'leadership' will result in inevitable defeat, just as it did when Alex handed the reins to her in 2014.

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    4. Keaton,
      Correct that a single post from annoying anonymous posters does not constitute the narrative but that is the actual situation nonetheless.

      Felix, one question Sturgeon will most definitely not be putting to the people of Scotland is " What is a woman." It remains to be seen if the independence question is ever put before Scotland by Sturgeon.

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  2. I like a lot of what Wings writes (not all, but the vast majority of it), but I agree that graph is bobbins.

    As you say, it actually hides a much more interesting and complex story about what's been happening in indy polling - which probably takes on a new significance now the SNP have decided that perhaps their patience has run out and other ways to achieve independence can be considered.

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  3. Stuart Campbell isn't of course a unionist, but he's not a supporter of Independence either, he's just a blogging hate filled wee troll who loves nothing more than causing trouble, any kind of trouble where he's the centre of attention will do

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    1. Summed it up perfectly

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    2. See you anonymous posters. If you don't want to be thought of as WGD numpties why not post as anonymous1 and anonymous2 etc and some of you as anonymousdickhead. Then you do not have the spectacle of anonymous congratulating itself.

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  4. I feel there’s been a distinct uplift in the pro-Indy following across lots of mediums. Even a few influential Scottish TikTokkers are for independence which is great.

    Let’s put Nicola Sturgeon and the unsavoury SNP aside, and let’s engage with people calmly and politely. It can’t be a hard sell this time - the “why not” line will sway more people to a YES.

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  5. Campbell of Wings gets a lot right and is clearly an intelligent person but he does get things wrong from time to time but his ego does not allow him to admit it and his aggressive nature comes to the fore when challenged. I agree with your comments on the two examples you quote. On balance, however, I believe he has made a massive contribution to the yes movement and his character is more to my liking than other bloggers eg. the big dug.

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  6. The Savanta poll in the Scotsman is encouraging. 44% Yes v 46% No, 10% undecided. That how I would like polls to headline them and not guessing how the don't knows will vote in the same proportion as to the question asked. Depending on the margin or error in Savanta polls, Yes could be just ahead. or no just ahead. Despite the best efforts of the MSM in both paper and electronic, the Yes vote has a very hard core base unlike 2012 when the referendum campaign unofficially started. Yes was nearly 20 points behind for most of that year.

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  7. You have to be fair, WGD has never advocated doing deals with the Tories, Stuart Campbell has and unfortunately that's because he doesn't care about the truth or the result, he only cares about how much trouble he can cause, Stuart Campbells cause is himself

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    1. Meanwhile Mad Old Dr Jim is giving us a masterclass on how to max the Yes vote:

      "Well don’t worry 2% folks because part of the plan by the media to undermine the YES vote is to parade the second most unpopular politician in Britain all over our TV screens in the hope of shoving the YES vote down"

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  8. Since there are people raising Wings - here is a Wings post covering a comment from Pension Pete and it sums up the ignorance, arrogance and inconsistency of the SNP and the rank stupidity of Pension Pete and all the WGD numpties who said the same.

    Cozy slippers says this last year:- " Seen a petition going around for a plebiscite from a pop up party that is polling less than 1%. Why would anyone sign up for a dead end that can't get us to Indy, would be boycotted by the Tories, lack any democratic legitimacy & would appall the international community? "

    Has Pete been told to shut up now by Sturgeon.

    Anyone think the Britnats won't follow his lead and use his words. What a tosser!

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    1. Pete Wishart on 28/6/2023 now says:- " There we go. If we are legally imprisoned in their Union we will fight the next General Election on a platform that ' Scotland should be an independent country'. This is it."

      Aye he has been told to sing a different tune by Sturgeon. All these numpties are now singing a different tune. It's like a bloody hive the Queen bee says one thing and all the drones change their minds. Pathetic numpties the lot of them. If Scotland does regain its independence it will be in spite of the numpties.

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    2. A few similar cases are coming to light. I can see why those who've argued for this approach all along in the face of such comments now feel vindicated and want to draw attention to the hypocrisy, but I'm not sure how it helps the cause of getting public acceptance for the idea of a plebiscite election to dwell on them now. BT 2.0 will be doing that enough.

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    3. Keaton, are we back to wheest for Indy again. You seem to assume that Sturgeon and her gang are now back on the straight and narrow and will go ahead and deliver independence. Swinney says it is a majority of MPs will deliver independence the next day Sturgeon says it is not. It is a majority vote she says but then will not clarify any further. Is this a sign of people who have thoroughly planned this out or a knee jerk/panic reaction. I find it hard to take this lot seriously.

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    4. Of course it is not only Pension Pete who has dissed using an election to gain our independence. Sturgeon's pal Hunter said last year:- " A single issue election is a practical impossibility." Of course being a numpty she provides no evidence for this assertion.



      Now Wishart and Hunter are classic Sturgeon/SNP drones who wouldn't take a leak without asking Sturgeon for permission so why the sudden change. Is it genuine?

      Is Mike Russell now using his 11 point plan to clean his horsebox out as it always was a load of shit.

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  9. That graph is a shame, Wings prides itself on backing its claims up with sources and while none of the points on the graph are false, it is so selective it could be Liberal Democrat by-election material.

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  10. As Sturgeon, Blackford, Robertson, Hosie et al keep saying they will not do anything unlawful, and what they mean by that is English law, then all Westminster has to do is pass a law saying what they are proposing to do is unlawful. In practice this could well amount to a commitment by the SNP to remain a prisoner in the UK Union.

    Only Scots law should apply to Scotland and Scots but Sturgeon prostrates herself before Westminster's English law and English constitution.

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  11. Nasty WGD numpty Dr Jim has this to say:- " It's shocking that to this day there are folk who still can't get it round their head that the BBC and other broadcasters are not impartial, the BBC in particular........"

    yeh that would be people like Sturgeon who reckons the BBC is a key and valued institution. Unlike Sturgeon I agree with Jimbo about the colonial media that broadcasts in Scotland with the prime purpose of keeping Scotland chained to the Union. In the heart of Scotland in Inverness the BBC have a panel of 3 Britnats and 2 independence supporters ( not to forget rabid Unionist Fiona Bruce). 0h and the usual Britnat plants in the audience masquerading as normal members of the public. When it comes to the union the BBC is permanently imbalanced in favour of the union. Angus Robertson did well as did the independence supporting comic.

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  12. Even if NS & co genuinely intend to hold a referendum next October, this is a classic case of The Boy Who Cried Wolf. She has stated her intention so many times in the past with nothing really happening, no one seems particularly interested or engaged this time round (totally unscientific reading of the situation amongst acquaintances/friends/co-workers admittedly).

    I’m guessing the court decision will go against her, so that’ll give her another couple of years kicking it down the road, then she’s obviously not going to get over 50% of the popular vote at the next GE so that’s another reason to put it on hold again (likely to the next SP election when Labour might finally have their act together enough to prevent an Indy majority).

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  13. Campbell was banned from Twitter for hate speech, taken to court for slander and lost, basically shut down by the Scottish public because they found out he's not what he claimed to be, caught lying and fiddling polling results by this site and you're still quoting his utterances ?

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    1. Stu Campbell's abrasive nature certainly antagonises people but Wings has been ahead of the curve in exposing the corrupt heart of the SNP under Sturgeon. From Salmondgate to the missing indyref fund to the proposal of a plebiscite as an alternative to the fabled 'gold standard' S30 referendum, Campbell has opened eyes to the true state of affairs under Sturgeon. Sometimes that truth hurts but I would rather have my eyes open than follow blindly like the gullible fools on WGD. I say again, the referendum next year is a non-starter and merely another mouldy carrot for the donkeys to munch on for 18 months while Lady Hee Haw gets on with her woke agenda to reshape society in her image.

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    2. Anonymous you are such a numpty it's not even clear who you are referring to. If you are referring to my post then I am quoting Pension Pete Wishart not Campbell. Try reading without the bile rising up and spoiling your vision. Another anonymous numpty.

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    3. owenmullions@gmail.comJuly 2, 2022 at 10:32 AM

      Stu Campbell's language can be obnoxious but he was NOT sued for slander. On the contrary, it was he who sued the odious Kezia 'I'm A Celebrity' Dugdale for her column in the equally odious Record which accused him of homophobia. (Interestingly, Paul Kavanagh attended court to speak up for him - how times have changed!) Whether he lost or not is an interesting question since the judge accepted he wasn't homophobic but still awarded costs against him - go figure.

      As for his twitter ban, it was the result of a coordinated campaign by the SNP's woke youth wing for his gender-critical views. Those views were expressed in his usual atavistic style but is it 'hate' speech to assert the reality of biological sex? Some might call it 'free' speech or stating the bleeding obvious.

      Still, why let the facts get in the way of a good anti-Wings rant. There used to be a guy on here who blamed Campbell for everything as he trawled the Borders looking for toilets he could share with women, it's not you is it? You seem to want to silence those whose opinions you don't like, perhaps you would be more comfortable with the group-think on WGD.

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