Friday, November 12, 2021

SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: SNP on course to win well over 90% of Scottish seats at the next UK general election - plus the latest independence voting intention numbers

So just a little recap for those of you who didn't see the video earlier. If you've been wondering why the Westminster and indyref voting intention numbers weren't the first results I published from the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, the mystery will now be solved, because there's nothing particularly startling in them.  However, the Westminster numbers remain extremely good for the SNP, and in fact are the best results Panelbase have reported for Nicola Sturgeon's party since a poll commissioned by this blog around a year ago.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 48% (+1)
Conservatives 21% (-2)
Labour 21% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
Others 4% (-)

Seats projection based on current boundaries, with changes from 2019 in brackets: SNP 55 (+7), Conservatives 3 (-3), Labour 1 (-), Liberal Democrats 0 (-4)

Seats projection based on proposed new boundaries, with changes from 2019 in brackets: SNP 53 (+5), Conservatives 2 (-4), Labour 1 (-), Liberal Democrats 1 (-3)

I know some people will be extremely dismissive of the idea that an enormous SNP lead is good for the independence movement.  They will argue that if we reach the next UK general election without an independence referendum having being held, the cause is lost anyway.  I certainly agree that an indyref should/must be held prior to the general election, but I don't subscribe to the catastrophist view which suggests that if the current SNP leadership screw it up for us, there's no further path forward.  Of course it makes a difference whether we retain a pro-indy majority at Westminster - and as the perverse media reaction to the SNP's comfortable victory in 2017 demonstrates, the size of that majority matters too.  There's also the theoretical chance of Boris Johnson cutting and running with a snap election before there's any chance to hold an indyref, although admittedly the likelihood of that has sharply diminished recently due to the Tory corruption scandals and Johnson's plummeting popularity south of the border.  The change in the Westminster political weather is reflected in this poll, with Labour catching up with the Tories for the first time in any Panelbase poll conducted during the current parliament.  (That said, the Tories do remain fractionally ahead of Labour on the unrounded numbers in the data tables.)

Perhaps inevitably in light of the massive SNP lead, the tables show that the SNP have been significantly more successful than other parties at retaining their voters from the 2019 election.  93% of people who voted SNP back then would still vote SNP now - with the equivalent figures for the Tories and Labour being 78% and 82% respectively.  A very significant 12% of Labour voters from 2019 would now vote SNP - it may well be that some of those people are disillusioned Corbynites.

Just 64% of Lib Dem voters from 2019 have stayed loyal - which again makes me wonder if a significant part of the Lib Dem sample from this poll consists of supporters of other unionist parties who cast a tactical vote in constituencies like East Dunbartonshire or Edinburgh West.  10% of Lib Dem voters have now drifted to the Tories, 15% to Labour, and a healthy 11% to the SNP.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (-1)
No 53% (+1)

(Before Don't Knows are stripped out, the numbers are: Yes 44%, No 50%, Don't Know 5%)

This is a mildly disappointing result, but nothing disastrous - it represents only a minor margin-of-error change from the last two Panelbase polls, which both showed a 48-52 split.  It's also a marked improvement on the result of the 2014 referendum, and is therefore an excellent starting platform for a new vote. However, it's obviously well down on the heady results of last year (the Yes vote peaked in Panelbase polls at an astonishing 56% in the Scot Goes Pop-commissioned poll of November 2020).  That being the case, here's my handy cut-out-and-keep guide to the SNP leadership's interpretation of what's been going on...

* It's absurd to deny Nicola Sturgeon the credit for the surge in Yes support in 2020 - you can't portray it as something that "just happened".  It was plainly largely caused by her leadership skills during the pandemic.  However, the subsequent drop in support has, of course, nothing whatever to do with her or any other leading SNP figure.  Drops in support, unlike increases, are things that "just happen" - either that or they're somehow caused by a small breakaway party that has received practically zero TV coverage.  "I can't prove that, but if you don't agree that it's obviously true, you're a ZOOMER." (© Mark McGeoghegan, April 2021)  

* The large lead in 2020 was an argument against holding an independence referendum any time soon.  "We got into this wonderful position by not actually talking about independence, so we mustn't throw it away now."

* The disappearance of the large lead from 2020 is also, paradoxically, an argument against holding an independence referendum any time soon.  "It would be stupid to hold an unwinnable referendum. If we just keep the heid and don't talk about independence for a few more years, maybe we'll repeat the trick of 2020 by building up a sizeable Yes lead.  And if that happens, it'll be even more important not to hold a referendum, because we'd only have got those Yes votes by not talking about independence, and we wouldn't want to throw them away, would we?"

* If the thought has occurred to you that not talking about independence may actually have been responsible for the drop in Yes support between 2020 and 2021, it's time for some deep personal introspection, because the drop in Yes support is actually your own fault.  The grassroots just haven't been campaigning hard enough, or effectively enough.  It's no good whingeing to the SNP about the absence of a referendum when it's your own fault for not chapping on enough doors and persuading enough people.  But bear in mind that if you do that and Yes support starts increasing again, you won't be able to take the credit for it, because in fact it will turn out that it was the SNP that turned things around by the sheer ferocity with which they refrained from talking about independence - and naturally you still won't get a referendum, because that would throw the gains away.

Perhaps the strategy is "Free by 2083 - but by stealth."

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I'm having to partly cover the costs of the current poll with my own funds, so if we're going to run further polling in the future, we'll need to reach the £6500 target in the fundraiser (or get very close to it).  We're close to 60% of the way there so far, with more than £2500 still required.  So any donations, large or small, would be greatly appreciated and will make all the difference.  Don't risk leaving public opinion polling exclusively in the hands of the mainstream media, with all the bias that entails!  Here are three ways in which you can donate...

1) Paypal payments to the email address:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is the preferred payment method because money is transferred immediately and without fuss.  All you need to ensure is that the above email address is entered correctly (note the .co.uk ending), and add a note with the word "poll" or "fundraiser".  (But don't worry if you forget to do the latter bit, because it'll still be obvious what the payment is for.)

2) Payments to the Scot Goes Pop GoFundMe Fundraiser page, which can be found HERE.

or

3) Direct bank transfer.  Contact me by email if you prefer this option.  My contact email address is different from my Paypal address above, and can be found in the sidebar of the blog (desktop version of the site only), or on my Twitter profile.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support, and in particular many thanks to the more than 160 people who have already donated.

19 comments:

  1. What is going on with people! seems to have turned into the year of headless chickens, that 50 50 would be an achievement says it all, but to be honest it's difficult to find people interested in the subject. It's like they're waiting for Sturgeon to do something, while Sturgeon is waiting for them to do all the running.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "It's like they're waiting for Sturgeon to do something,......"

      Well I am certainly waiting for Sturgeon to go and take her crooked gang with her. As long as the SNP/WGD numpties keep supporting her it will be a long wait still in this abusive Union seeing Scotlands resources plundered and its people abused. But hey now is not the time say the numpties. They sound more and more like Theresa May as each year goes by. The numpties no longer go on about Sturgeon having a secret plan because they know the secrets out - the plan is Russell's nonsense 11 point plan that was cobbled together to get votes at May's election.

      A plan with no timetable and no chance of success.

      It's time people woke up to the fact that Sturgeon and her gang do not want independence.


      Delete
  2. How can there be 48% support for the SNP, but only 47% support for independence? Given that there is a sizeable chunk of Labour supporters who would vote for independence, plus a few folk in the other parties, there must be quite a few unionist SNP voters?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the data tables, 12% of people who voted SNP in 2019 would vote No. 31% of people who voted Labour in 2019 would vote Yes.

      Delete
    2. Wouldn’t that still suggest a higher Yes %?

      Delete
    3. It's slightly more complicated than that, because Don't Knows and people who are unlikely to vote are stripped out, but that's a different group of people on each question. 77% of respondents say they are certain to vote in an indyref, compared to only 67% for the next UK general election.

      Delete
  3. It seem's dynamic lethargy is the new SNP strategy.

    ReplyDelete
  4. " 93% of people who voted SNP back then would still vote SNP now -...."

    With every week that passes I become more proud to be part of the 7%.

    ReplyDelete
  5. James an excellent piece of satire on the SNP approach to gaining independence. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic and so accurate.

    Perhaps Blackford should have said thousands of times Scotland WILL be taken out of the EU against it's will as the opposite of what they say always seems to occur.

    Another example could have been the STOP BREXIT BUS saying BREXIT WILL HAPPEN.

    Meanwhile Sturgeon is out buying a photo album to hold all her Cop 26 selfies.

    In the history of the British Empire has there ever been a more pathetic leader of an independence movement.

    ReplyDelete
  6. James, the numpties on WGD having a go at you and your polling. First of all they are not happy that you polled on GRA but then when you poll on independence and the results are not as good as they would like they suggest you are pockling things. You should be asking about a specific referendum date in 2023 in the question. These people are going bonkers. Capella says you used to be good at interpretating polls.

    It's like Lord of the Flies for Old Gits rather than youngsters over on WGD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I haven't seen any of that, but if it's as you describe they're just showing themselves up to be utterly clueless. Polling companies ask standard questions for voting intentions - the wording doesn't change from client to client. Very occasionally a non-standard question might be agreed - for example Survation have, for whatever reason, agreed to run a propaganda voting intention question for Scotland in Union on a number of occasions. However, all that achieves is to detract from the credibility of the results, because everyone knows they're not proper independence polls.

      Delete
    2. James, A couple of quotes:

      Capella says "Assessing the validity of polls was something James Kelly used to be good at. We need clever psephologists on the case."

      Scottish Skier says " Finally, since there is a suggested date for the vote, it would be worth pollsters asking about this rather than a referendum tomorrow morning that isn't actually planned. If you want to start assessing how people might vote in 2023, then ask them that and not about an imaginary vote in the morn."

      The mad liar Skier posing as an expert on polls gaslighting people that there is a definite vote in 2023.

      Delete
    3. Well, whether Capella likes it or not, this poll is certainly a good deal more "valid" as a result of having used Panelbase's standard independence question than it would have been if I'd done what he/she apparently wanted and tried to 'engineer' an artificial Yes majority with a dodgy question.

      I don't know if it's even worth the bother of replying to the quote from Scottish Skier - before migrating to WGD he'd been peddling the "tomorrow" nonsense on this blog for years. (And before that on Wings.) By all means a poll can specify the date of a referendum when a referendum has actually been called and we have a date for it. As things stand, no referendum has been called and there is no date. 2023 is every bit as "imaginary" as tomorrow.

      Delete
  7. Well James here is DR Jim on WGD:

    " We have a timeframe for an independence vote 2023 yet the pollsters ask the question how would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow afternoon at 3.35pm........"

    Imaginary and delusional stuff. I blame Kavanagh for punting this sort of stuff to easily manipulated people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The mad liar Skier continues his attack on your polling but yesindyrefpleasenicola comes to your defence- " James Kelly of Scot Goes Pop is every bit as good a psephologist as he used to be, and it's sad some people are letting his support of Alba embitter their judgement."

      Then on cue comes bitter Hamish 100 to make a snide remark suggesting he is some sort of traitor or something.

      What a state these WGD numpties are in.

      Delete
    2. Then not to be outdone comes the extremely bitter Jack Collatin who also lays into yesindyrefpleasnicola and the "old wretched whorses " and has beens of the Alba party. A bit of a cheek since Collatin himself is probably about 120 years old.

      As the numpties slowly realise that Sturgeon is a wrong un their heads are all over the place having invested so much of their personal credibility in worshipping her for so long. My advice - get over it. Independence should be the goal not putting a politician on a pedestal and worshipping at her feet.

      Delete
  8. Two SNP MPs go on a jolly to Gilbraltar ( the most British of all Britnat places) on Armistice day. This asists Scottish independence - how?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Some good news for a change. Craig Murray to be released from prison at the end of this month. Just happens to be St Andrews day.

    Somehow I don't think the old misersble Gits on WGD will be happy as it was Sturgeons gang that put him in prison and WGD Old Gits must do what the messiah says.

    ReplyDelete