Saturday, November 13, 2021

Good evening, Unionist Twitter. So, after two weeks and a massive SNP lead on three separate voting intention questions, you've finally noticed the poll, have you?

If I'd known the villain of #Pounds4McDougallgate and his chums were going to get so over-excited, I would have made the obvious point last night - that the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll actually has slightly older fieldwork than the Scotsman / Savanta ComRes poll, which showed a narrower No lead and no change whatsoever from the previous ComRes poll.  It was also markedly better for the Yes side than ComRes polling back in the spring.  So there are very good reasons for thinking that the Yes vote is holding up, and that the statistically insignificant 1% decrease with Panelbase that Blair is hyperventilating about is just meaningless margin of error noise.

1 comment:

  1. Could someone clarify for me what the issue actually is? What would a poll of polls tell us about the independence / dependence split?

    Any individual poll, depending on how the question is put, can skew things a little bit.

    James, for your non-statistician user base, i.e. me, could you explain your concerns in non technical language?

    Cause I'm not getting it.