Thursday, April 15, 2021

If you're voting by post today, please consider voting Alba on the list ballot - but make sure you vote SNP on the constituency ballot

Postal ballots are starting to arrive in people's homes today.  Because of the pandemic, more people than usual have applied for a postal vote, and we know from past history that a lot of people tend to return their votes straight away. So this is not a drill - for a substantial proportion of the population, today is election day, and voters are about to make decisions about Scotland's future that they won't be able to take back.

I want to urge all independence supporters to strongly consider voting for the Alba Party on the regional list ballot.  You do that simply by marking a cross in the box next to the Alba Party's name on the regional list ballot paper.  (Do not write a number in the box or your vote probably won't count.)  If you're unsure of why Alba is the best choice, here are seven good reasons I've blogged about earlier, but above all else just think about how you'll feel in May 2026 if yet another five-year parliamentary term has gone by without the SNP government using its mandate to hold an independence referendum.  

To be clear, I've no idea whether or not the SNP leadership privately intend to do something about independence over the next few years.  There's a very small, closed group of advisers around Nicola Sturgeon, and unless you're on the inside it's almost impossible to discern what their instincts and guiding principles are (other than extreme caution, of course - we can take that as read).  I've watched the SNP party election broadcast that came under criticism in some quarters, and I thought it was fantastic - it pushed every button for a true independence supporter and made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.  But was that intended to set the stage for an endgame to the battle of wills with the UK government, or was it intended simply to exploit the passions of independence supporters to get the SNP re-elected so that they can stay in power and focus on other priorities, as they've done over the last five years?  I literally don't know - it could be either.

There's one thing I am sure of, though.  Nicola Sturgeon laughed at Willie Rennie when he suggested that Scotland didn't need the powers to introduce universal basic income, because we could supposedly persuade the UK government to introduce it for us.  "Persuade?  Persuade Boris Johnson?" she asked incredulously.  And yet that is exactly the position of the SNP leadership in respect of a Section 30 order paving the way for an independence referendum - they not only think Boris Johnson can be persuaded to grant one, but that it will somehow be "unsustainable" for him to refuse.  That contradiction is an insult to the intelligence of every independence supporter.  If we want an independence referendum, or some kind of equivalent democratic event to bring independence about, we're going to need to make it happen.  The UK government are not going to grant it out of the kindness of their hearts.

It doesn't exactly inspire confidence that the SNP have the mettle to make things happen when we hear today that one of their MSPs says he doesn't want to do anything until there is 70% support for independence in the polls - something that will plainly never occur.  To all intents and purposes it was a statement of opposition to independence.  Admittedly he's not exactly a key decision-maker, but it's troubling just the same.

Luckily we don't have to guess or wonder whether the Alba Party want to do something about independence over the next five years - this is a party of people who would gladly have independence yesterday if they could.  Given that we have a choice between the SNP and something better on the list ballot, it's really important that we vote for something better.  Don't let's wish in a couple of years' time that we hadn't squandered this opportunity.  Think about how much it will change the dynamic if Alba have enough MSPs to form an official group at Holyrood, thus allowing Alex Salmond to hold the government to account at First Minister's Questions every week.  Until now, the only pressure on Nicola Sturgeon has come from people who think she's going too far and too fast on independence.  Think of the difference it'll make if there's also pressure from those who think she's not doing enough, or that she's not doing it fast enough.  And it's not as if she'd just be able to brush that pressure off, because there would always be a danger of SNP MSPs (and MPs and councillors) defecting to a strong Alba party if it became clear that independence has been kicked into the long grass.

That said, it's equally important, and indeed absolutely vital, that you also vote SNP on the constituency ballot.  Again, you do that by marking a cross in the box next to the SNP candidate's name on the constituency ballot paper.  (Do not write a number in the box or your vote may not count.)  If you vote for any party other than the SNP on the constituency ballot, or indeed if you abstain, you are helping the unionist parties to win - it really is that simple.  In every single constituency in Scotland, the SNP are the only pro-independence party that can keep the leading unionist candidate out.  The Greens certainly can't do it.  (I know some people will quibble about Glasgow Kelvin, but even there the SNP are the leading pro-independence party by a country mile.)

To return to Alba, the other point worth making is that it's a party that has rooted itself firmly in the grassroots independence movement.  OK, there's an element of mutual self-interest in that, because the mainstream media aren't giving Alba a fair hearing, so it makes sense for Alba to use the movement as an alternative means of getting the message out.  But just contrast the way that Alba have embraced the movement with the way that the SNP have always kept us at a distance and treated us as a mild embarrassment.  Having been a pro-SNP blogger since 2008, I'm in a better position to know that than most.  Don't get me wrong, there are a number of leading individuals within the SNP who have been extremely kind and friendly towards me over the years - James Dornan, Ivan McKee and Angus Robertson all spring to mind.  (Angus comes in for a lot of criticism, but I can only speak as I find, and he seems to me to be a very genuine person.  He offered me some very helpful advice when I started running polls.  I'd have no hesitation in voting for him in Edinburgh Central, and whatever the virtues of Bonnie Prince Bob, fringe candidates really should be standing on the list rather than helping the Tories by splitting the pro-indy vote on the constituency ballot.)  But on an 'institutional' basis, I think it's fair to say that the SNP have deliberately kept the organic part of the movement at arm's length.

If you'll forgive me for being as pompous as the New York Times, the official Scot Goes Pop endorsement in this election is SNP on the constituency ballot, Alba on the regional list ballot.

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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).

25 comments:

  1. Brilliant, inspiring. Time for my prediction: 12 percent for Alba on the regional list

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  2. I saw on a yes supporting social media site a picture of the postal vote list that on the list it says snp and the message unferneath 'Nicola sturgeon for 1dt minister' and another message for ukip 'get rid of holyrood' .. I couldn't see the alba one on the picture but presumably they could have a reference to salmond to maximise brand recognition? In reference to the initial 6% poll being unrealistic.. I note the more recent one didn't have it anyway but a thought that's all..

    Snp alba for de sf

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    1. De sf, I believe the electoral commission rejected an additional description for Alba because their submission was too late or something. In any case, I got the ballot papers this morning and it simply has Alba.

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    2. They can't have a reference to Alex Salmond on the ballot paper because the Electoral Commission turned down their request for any message (and indeed the logo, too). The EC also turned down Labour's request to mention Anas Sarwar.

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  3. It’s interesting that there seems to have been ‘no’ expressed fears about postal vote security from anyone.
    Which is slightly weird given the widely expressed conspiracy theories about the 2014 ref. vote.

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    1. Has there not been a tightening up on the rules for postal ballots? Not because of 2014 but because of Tory concerns about some Labour areas in England.

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  4. I just received my ballot paper. 🙂 Now, decision time...lol. Living in the Highlands my first thought was to vote SNP 1 & 2, as that seems safest, but I must admit I've been torn, because I would really like to see Alba win seats. Now the thing is I've never believed in tactical voting on the list. But what I DO believe is that you should vote for your first choice party on the list. That's never been a problem till now as it's always been SNP. I admire what the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon have done in so many ways but I really DO think there needs to be both a greater urgency in the independence drive and a greater involvement with the wider YES movement in achieving that end. So for me the situation has become reversed, in the sense that voting SNP on the list would actually be the tactical vote and voting Alba would be a vote for my party of choice. I need to have the courage of my convictions.
    So it's SNP 1, Alba 2.

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  5. ah - I've just seen you are pre-approving comments (my phone didn't let me see that) which is fair enough, so you'll have rceived a few simiar commments from me as I thought it was my faut they weren't appearing!

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  6. How long it it currently taking for post to be delivered? If I return ballot papers by post, what's the last safe date to make sure my votes count? I would prefer to wait a while and listen to more talking heads before making a decision on the list vote.

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  7. Was with you until Angus Robertson, a controversial mention for various reasons. I used to have a lot of respect for Robertson, but unfortunately not any more.

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    1. I have issues with Robertson too, but James speaks as he finds and I can respect that.

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  8. Probably worth noting that the 70% thing was from John Mason, who is so far from being a close confidant of the leadership he's practically an independent

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  9. I have absolutely no idea what the Alba Party want done regarding getting another referendum apart from 'negotiating with Westminster and when that's turned-down we would like the Scottish government to consider other options'. It's exactly the same as the SNP. I don't see the point. Tweedledee / Tweedledum. I know what the point of the Alba Party is, though. That's obvious.

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  10. I think we should all have respect for the different ways Yes voters want to vote. We all need a home. No party can claim the mantle of the grassroots Yes movement; they all are part of it.

    My advice, if anyone wants it, remains to vote for the party you want most in government on the PR list, be that SNP/Green/Alba...

    Going by current polling averages - which should closely reflect how people are filling out those postal ballots - attempts at a 'supermajority' by tactical list voting does look risky. However, that said, a vote with your heart for the party you really support is never a 'wasted vote'; certainly not under PR.

    Let's not gamble on the future of Scotland, but put our X next to what we genuinely think is best for it.

    Barring any drastic poll movements, here in the south of Scotland I'm settled on a safe bet for good candidates in the form of SNP-SNP.

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  11. SNP1 Alba2 Highlands and Islands for me.

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  12. Logic says SNP 1 & 2 in the Highlands and South of Scotland.

    Anywhere else, a constituency vote for the SNP with list vote going to any other pro-independence supporting party.

    I think voting Alba on the list in Highlands and South of Scotland will cost the Independence Movement seats.

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  13. In Highlands I’d likely vote for Andy Wightman, as I did here in Edinburgh in 2016. The hardest working MSP of the whole parliament on land reform. Shame to see the Greens kick him out over identity nonsense.

    Back here in Lothian: the ballot is a sight to behold! Re: ballot. 2 parties to abolish Scotland. That’s not even counting Galloway. Another for anti vaxxers. Anti abortionists have one too. And dont forget the communists of formerly Great Britain. I don’t see the SSP though, maybe they’re backing Alba.

    My vote? Either my usual Green or Alba at this point. I’ve got until polling day to decide.

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    1. He actually resigned before they kicked him out. He couldn't take the bullying from the poisonous Wokists any longer. Google his resignation letter and you will see that the Green wokists are not very nice people and there isn't anything very Green about them.

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    2. I just dont trust the PV. casting votes three weeks before the election is crooked as far as I am concerned.

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    3. How is shouting 'wokeist' at people any less of a bullying / immature attitude than shouting 'TERFS/transphobes' at them?

      Two cheeks of the same erse IMO.

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  14. The Constituency vote has the name of the Candidate for Edinburgh North and West it's Ben Shepard for the SNP and the list paper has Nicola Sturgeon for first minister on it I voted SNP(Ben) and Alba on the other.

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  15. James, can we expect any more serious polling on regional list voting intentions? I'd like to vote for whichever pro-independence party is best placed to pick up a list seat in my own (NE) region, because Christian Allard (I like that man) failed to get one for the SNP last time. So - Green (4.9% of the list vote last time), or Alba in the absence of data?

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    1. Alba will struggle to reach beyond social media as they won't have a "machine" on the ground. Getting past the 6% hurdle won't be easy. Plenty of enthusiasm I am sure but limited data. Just what people pick up on TV and radio/newspapers and what leaflets through the letter box (most are just glanced at). Only a small percentage of the population are news junkies. Alba should have started a year earlier.

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