Friday, March 5, 2021

The SNP's proposed manifesto commitment to a Plan B doesn't go far enough - but it's undoubtedly a big step forward

I've been having a look at the draft SNP manifesto that's been leaked to Wings (although 'leaked' may be stretching the point if it's been circulated to branches) and I'm actually a lot more positive about it than Stuart and his devotees are.  It certainly doesn't go far enough, because there's no sign of a Plan C to cover the perfectly conceivable scenario in which the UK government not only challenge a referendum in court, but actually win.  Some people say "you have to keep that card up your sleeve" - well, even if that's the theory, there should be a clear undertaking that a court defeat would not be the end of the matter.

However, the strength of the language about the determination to push ahead with legislation for a referendum come what may, and about how the next request for a Section 30 order will be the final one, is much better than I would have thought likely a few months ago, and is important because it gives SNP members something to hold the leadership to.  It isn't vague language that can be conveniently 'explained away' at a later date - the meaning of the pledge is crystal-clear, at least this side of any visit to the Supreme Court.  We no longer have the nightmare scenario, which the likes of Mhairi Hunter used to punt in all apparent seriousness as a viable strategy, of asking for a Section 30 order and then just "campaigning some more for a Section 30 order" every time the request is inevitably rejected.

A couple of Stuart's specific objections are bogus.  He seems to think the language about holding a referendum as soon as it's safe to do so is a delaying tactic, and he points out that if it's already deemed safe to hold an election in May it must by definition be safe to hold a referendum.  Well, that may be technically true, but a parliamentary election is a much more routine event than a referendum on a country's independence, and it's surely undesirable to hold the latter until it's possible to engage in the full range of campaigning options, such as doorstep campaigning.  But the way things are going, that shouldn't be too far off.

Stuart also trots out the silly old myth about how a consultative referendum is essentially impossible because unionist-run councils will refuse to cooperate with it.  In reality, the only way a consultative referendum will take place is if it's the law of the land - ie. if the Scottish Parliament has legislated for a referendum and the Supreme Court has upheld that law.  Unionist councils will obey the law of the land as they do in every other election or referendum.

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Yesterday brought some mildly encouraging polling news from YouGov, who appear to be the only firm that structure and weight their Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls correctly.  Their poll of 3rd-4th March is therefore the first real straw in the wind about the state of public opinion in the wake of Alex Salmond's appearance before the Holyrood committee, and the subsample figures are healthy enough: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 16%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 3%.

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I'm currently crowdfunding to run another Scot Goes Pop poll at some point before Holyrood election day - if you'd like to donate, click HERE to find out more.  

34 comments:

  1. My big concern about this draft manifesto commitment is that it might be a squirrel. It gets lots of attention now among the activists and buys everyone into campaigning. But, because it is a draft or proposal it might actually be watered down for the final manifesto and this might not be noticed.

    [See how my level of trust is low ... ]

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    1. Yes, it could well be watered down, but that's scarcely going to go unnoticed or uncommented upon, and the leadership must surely realise there'll be a heavy price to pay if they attempt that.

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    2. Fair point, although by the time it is published, it might be too late for anything but wheesht for Indy

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    3. I wouldn't wheesht about it even if it was too late to do anything but complain.

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    4. Grovebury any decent leadership would realise the level of trust would be low. It is a reasonable position based on all the previous unused mandates.

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  2. Maybe they'll take the feedback and improve the wording

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  3. the silly old myth about how a consultative referendum is essentially impossible because unionist-run councils will refuse to cooperate with it.

    This sounds oh so very unionist.

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  4. Plan C, being a plebscitary election, doesn't require a prior election manifesto commitment. They can pull the plug on the 2021-2025 term and force a snap election in which independence is a direct pledge if/when plan B goes down in flames.

    "You can't call a snap election! You didn't put it in your manifesto!" Aye, right. Two numbers: 2017, 2019.

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    1. Yes, this is an obvious plan B.

      And you can tell unionists as they try to pretend this isn't possible and the plebiscitary election must be this May or it's 5 years of the Tories because...

      #wheeshtfortheunion

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    2. It doesn't matter whether a manifesto commitment is needed to do it. The point of putting it in writing is to give *us* confidence that we aren't being led up the garden path.

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  5. This proposed commitment is certainly reassuring from my point of view. No vague "material change of circumstances" wiggle room.

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    1. Although, to be fair, it was the 'material change of circumstances' clause in a manifesto which actually legitimised another referendum on 24 June 2016 after the brexit referendum, less than 2 years after 2014.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  7. 39% Yes in the latest Welsh poll.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19137399.snp-welcome-blistering-welsh-attack-tories/

    'UK is over': SNP welcome blistering Welsh attack on Tories

    During an evidence session at the Welsh Affairs Committee, Mark Drakeford, right, said the United Kingdom “is over” and a new union should be crafted to reflect a “voluntary association of four nations”.

    He also condemned the UK Government’s approach of bypassing the devolved governments through levelling up funds.


    That's what was missed. Johnson hasn't tried to say no to the Scots, but to the N. Irish, forcing them to stay in the UK (and so emboldening the unionist terrorists), the Welsh and, well, the English too (only the stupid down south could not see this, i.e. 'first they came...').

    'No Welsh / N. Irish / Scottish...English' referendum for 40 years! is what he said.

    But you won't read about this on English blogs because, you know...

    #wheeshtfortheunion

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  8. It is nowhere near good enough when like me you no longer trust anyone in the present SNP leadership. They have done nothing to earn that trust.

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  9. Johnson misled the Westminster Parliament. High Court rules. Let's have an enquiry.

    https://twitter.com/Germans4indyref/status/1367823752331984896

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    1. I now await English blogs and related commenters writing article after article / comment after comment calling for him to resign. Or maybe it will be...

      #wheeshtfortheunion

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  10. I must confess I've always seen the Section 30 order as a red herring.
    The UK can use all sorts of devices to block Scottish independence but if the Scots want independence they will support it and the UK trying to block it will simply strengthen and increase that demand. It's a process and Scotland will become independent when enough Scots want it to be independent. Hard support is the single most important factor here. It beats failures to grant a Section 30 order, refusal to recognise this or that mandate, legal decisions on the validity of the 1429 Treaty of Kirkintilloch and all the rest of the stuff that will be used to undermine us.
    Building increasing and harder support right here and right now is the single most important thing every one of us can do.
    Everything else is "a wheen o' blethers"

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  11. Jerry if the majority of Scottish people want their country to be independent then that is what will happen. Unless England attempts to use force to block the democratic will of the Scottish people then unionist can take part or not in the next referendum it's there choice. I would suggest force against the Scottish people would not be accepted throughout the world. Still if "now is not the time" is Boris Johnson's position, then good for us.
    Soar Alba

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  12. It's a fake, there is no such manifesto.

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    1. It was quite clever. It has forced Russell to deny it and it sets a kind of marker as to 'good enough'

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  13. Blackford says we COULD face a referendum as early as late 2021. What in November?

    But it will only happen when we get to that place of safety he also says.

    Anyone who believes this stuff care to explain how the election can go ahead ok but a referendum is subject to a safe order. A true party of independence would put a mandate for ACTUAL independence it its manifesto.

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    1. A true indy supporter would respect that other indy supporters / parties might favour a referendum.

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    2. The election is already scheduled for a particular date, it would be a big deal to postpone it, and all vulnerable people will be vaccinated so it can go ahead. For a referendum, we have the freedom to choose a date, so there's no need to schedule it until proper mass campaigning can happen. Makes sense to me. Also, yes support is a few scant percentage points above 50% (hopefully) so some flexibility on the date is a good thing.

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    3. Commentor - aye ok we will just wait then. So you agree that November or December this year is unlikely and another year goes by. There will always be an excuse for this leadership of the SNP.

      Whats the odds that come the next GE it will be the same as 2019. The most important election to ensure a mandate for a referendum da de da de da.

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  14. When you look back at the 2014 referendum, the Indy side ruled the internet. There weren't any unionists posting on Indy blogs.
    The British State has learned that lesson, and now every Indy blog is infected with anti-SNP posters trying to cause splits amongst us. They say they support Independence for Scotland, but never attack the Tory, Labour or Libdems. Only the SNP.
    Who gains with the Indy side fighting amongst itself?
    Most of these new posters are obvious British plants, but unfortunately some decent folk have been sucked into it.

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  15. If you are an equal partner in the Union no-one can block you or use any devices to stop you doing anything. It's only when you accept the other partners narrative that somehow you have to jump through x y and z hoops or anything else to do something then they have the ability to stop you doing what you want. Recently I had an interesting chat with a very good American friend who put it very kindly that we appear to be the most timid nation on earth... Indeed if we are a nation as we are the only country in the world that chose to vote against it Independence ... His suggestion was quite simple if your an equal partner just tell them it's over. There is no need to do anything else.... Such as having to explain currency pensions anything.... That's just put in your way to divert and slow you down. His point was no-one would expect England to have to do anything so why should we.Britex was an excellent example of England doing what it wants.... It's just a shame that our representatives didn't use it as an opportunity to change the narrative and begin to tell the world Scotland's new story....instead they spent 4-5 years trying to change England mind... Sorry this is England we are talking about no-one tells them what to do...and rightly so they are a Proud Nation in their own right and can decid what course they wish to follow. So now just before May we have a plan B...well sort of... and a possibility of a referendum on our future... this year maybe... or next....or later in the term of the parliament...when the time is right...but none of it can be confirmed? Really and some this from a guy who promised Scotland won't be dragged out of the EU against its will... Sure fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me... Just grow a pair why don't you! In that sense I admire the English... If they were in our position they would have already left.

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  16. Wee shoot oot tae Nicola, Wings and IfS here. Aw been daein their bit their ain way.

    Thanks folks, for the new SNP members, yessers and National subscribers!

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19140134.national-sees-flurry-new-subscribers---nows-time-sign/

    The National sees flurry of new subscribers – now's the time to sign up

    JUST as the SNP has seen a membership boost this week, The National has seen a flurry of new subscribers sign up over the last couple of days.

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  17. It's funny. I recall back ahead ae 2014 'controversial' blogs telling us aw how incessant negative campaigning didnae get ye anywhere and jist turned folks away fae yer cause.

    That's true the day as it ever was.

    Sending them richt tae the SNP / Yes...

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  18. Agree with that... a positive Campaign is best... but, the gloves have to come off as well no more listen to their narrative for us... rather telling them ours.

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  19. You said a non Section 30 referendum will be agreed by the Supreme Court. Not necessarily. The Tories could just say they are boycotting it. I am pretty sure the council's only have to comply with elections which are already authorised under devolution.

    If the referendum goes through court , it could take years with appeals and what not.

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    1. Big Jock I think that is what the devolutionists in the SNP are counting on. Remember how long minimum pricing rumbled on for.

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