Monday, March 1, 2021

Survation datasets confirm a genuine 50-50 result on the independence question, SNP remain on course for overall majority, and pro-indy parties are projected to win 60% of the seats in Holyrood

Some more details have been released from the supposedly "bombshell" Survation poll, and the first thing to say is that this is a genuine 50-50 poll.  Not only is the headline result 50-50, but on the raw numbers it's as close as it can be - after weighting, 380 respondents said they would vote Yes and 382 said they would vote No, which works out as Yes 49.9%, No 50.1%.  Some people are placing huge significance on the fact that, if Don't Knows are left in, the percentages appear to show No ahead by 1%, but a) that's just a random quirk of the rounding, and b) those aren't the headline results anyway (although for some strange reason they're the ones used on Wikipedia's list of polls).  This is a dead heat, and it shouldn't be treated any other way.  The somewhat less good news, though, is that the fieldwork was conducted on both Thursday and Friday, which means the impact of Friday's explosive events will not have been fully factored in.

There are also Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers, which remain exceptionally good for the SNP - 

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 50% (-1) 
Conservatives 21% (+2) 
Labour 20% (+1) 
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2) 

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 38% (-2) 
Conservatives 21% (+4) 
Labour 20% (-1)
Greens 11% (- )
Liberal Democrats 8% (-) 

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 67 (+4), Labour 24 (-), Conservatives 21 (-10), Greens 11 (+5), Liberal Democrats 6 (+1)

SNP: 67 seats (51.9%)
All others: 62 seats (48.1%)

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 5 SEATS

Pro-independence parties: 78 seats (60.5%)
Anti-independence parties: 51 seats (39.5%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 27 SEATS

It's curious that Labour are still projected to be in second place in terms of seats, even though they've slipped back into third place in the popular vote on both ballots.  That would obviously be a huge symbolic and psychological blow to Douglas Ross, who wouldn't be able to pose as 'leader of the opposition' or get the first shot every week at First Minister's Questions - but whether the voting system really would give Labour a little bonus in that way is hard to know.  As ever, I think it's likely that Survation are slightly underestimating the SNP on the list vote and slightly overestimating the Greens, simply because of the way the question was asked.

Talking of questions, looking through the list of supplementary questions in the tables, it's not hard to see what agenda the Record/Mail were pushing and what results they were hoping to be able to report.  For example, respondents were asked to choose between "the SNP have been in government for too long" and "the SNP have not been in government for too long".  If you think about it, unless you're a dyed-in-the-wool SNP partisan, it's quite difficult to give the "not" answer to that question, because you feel you're being tugged towards a 'correct' response.  I was also intrigued to hear that the Express were apparently able to report the poll on their front page, which suggests that the Record/Mail were less interested in having their own exclusive than they were in circulating the results as widely as possible to cause the maximum discomfort for the SNP and the independence movement.  Does this mean the Record have been 'enlisted' once again?

42 comments:

  1. It may be a little out of date now, but the projected SNP gains from the Tories on here are interesting:

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?cSNP=52.57&cLAB=15.29&cCON=23&cLD=5&rSNP=45.86&rCON=21.71&rLAB=15.14&rGRN=8.57&rLD=6&rUKIP=2.03&rBREX=0

    They would take 6 Tory Constituency seats; Edinburgh Central, Eastwood, Ayr, Aberdeen West, Dumfriesshire and Galloway and West Dumfries. The first 2 are Ruth Davidson's and Jackson Carlaw's seats, and the last 2 are in the Unionist heartland of Southern Scotland. From my viewpoint as a resident of Galloway and West Dumfries, a seat which has been Tory for its whole existence, currently held by Findlay Carson it was previously held by the late Alex Ferguson, the former Holyrood Presiding Officer, and if it switched to the SNP this May I cannot see it being anything less than a real shock for the Tories, although Carson was less than 2000 votes ahead of the SNP in 2016, and his Westminster colleague, Alister Jack (unfortunately, and I have heard rumours that they don't get on) had his majority cut by the SNP in 2019.... Dumfriesshire was Labour until 2016, and Oliver Mundell is a bit of an arse, so that seat could more easily switch I think.

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    1. That should read Finlay Carson, not Findlay. Sorry, autocorrect!

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  2. I would suspect that the Record (part of Reach which is a new name for Trinity Mirror) are not on the side of Yes. The Express are now owned by Reach so that would be the reason it appeared in that paper. I have a slight feeling that Hutcheon the editor was disappointed that the No side didn't take the lead after the past week's events. The List votes varies around depending how the question is worded.

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    1. Marcia says "I would suspect that the Record .,,,,,,,,,,,, are not on the side of yes."

      What an insight. Many thanks.

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  3. " Does this mean the Record have been "enlisted" once again?"

    Don't know what this means. The Daily Redcoat is just another declining Britnat paper whose circulation goes down each year as some of its readers die and they are not replaced.

    Eventually most people will recognise that these papers are maintained not because of any direct economic value to their owner but as propaganda sheets.

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  4. I can't see how anything has changed in the past week. We've heard nothing but 'Salmond hates Sturgeon / SNP civil war!' for like a year now. Salmond's claims are not new, and in fact his submission cleared it up that he just has beef with a few folk, none of which are candidates. No calls for Sturgeon to resign; just told people to respect Hamilton's independent findings.

    In fact the SNP have been 'descending into chaotic civil war' since I started voting for them back in the 90's when I was just coming of age.

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    1. My BS detector just blew up. I was a Branch Organizer in the 1980's and first voted for them in 1979. You have no fecking idea what an SNP Civil War looks like. They have been comparatively United since the late 1980s.

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    2. I'm just quoting unionists. I've heard nothing but 'The SNP are cult where nobody ever disagrees with the dear leader as they tear each other apart in horrifically divided civil war'.

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    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) says "I am just quoting unionists" yeh you are always doing that and referring people to Britnat media as a trusted source."

      Well I am not part of any SNP civil war. People like Smearer are debasing themselves on behalf of Sturgeon.

      # lying for Sturgeon.

      Delete
  5. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - lying again Smearer.

    " none of which are candidates" Salmond never said that. You say that but you don't know that do you. So you are a blatant liar.

    Salmond in his statement says " There are others who, for legal reasons, I am not allowed to name."

    # Smearer lying for Sturgeon

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    1. Huh, he specifically named those he had beef with and I don't see any names from the candidate list.

      Only a prize idiot could not read what he wrote and be 99.9-100% sure they were not voting for anyone he's pissed off with.

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    2. And I thought you actually knew who all the alphabet wummin are? If so, you are totally sorted. No need even a bit of educated guesswork; you've a completely safe bet on the constituency and list.

      And what would happen if it was someone in the SNP you don't like on the constituency? Would you vote unionist or let them in by the back door?

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    3. # Smearer lying for Sturgeon

      # Smearer moral vacuum.

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    4. Smearer Skier (Liar since 2014) - I don't care much for Alex Kerr as a constituency candidate but I will be voting for him. People, in my opinion, have a right to know the sort of person they are voting for and whether or not they have lied in a criminal trial to try and send Salmond to jail. Only a person with no sense of right or wrong would say that does not matter. That is you Smearer.

      # Smearer moral vacuum

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    5. While I agree people have the right to know...

      Nobody has been convicted of perjury so nobody is guilty of lying. The court did not conclude anyone had lied / perjured, only that based on testimony, what had occurred was not criminal.

      Salmond himself has said the courts did a great job.

      But if you want, you can help people by confirming who isn't one of the alphabet folks. We have Alex Kerr as a start.

      I assume Christine Grahame is ok too? I understand she was not a civil servant at Holyrood working close to Salmond, so I must be good right?

      Do your bit here IfS. You can't identify who is a complainer, but with ~2 million adult women in Scotland, you are free to identify who is not.

      Delete
    6. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - does your employee know that you are encouraging/goading someone on a public platform to commit a criminal act and not for the first time either. Which University is it you work for Ross? Or is that another lie? Edinburgh Uni, Herriot Watt Uni? Or just lying again?

      Delete
  6. No so called Newspapers are Indy supporters. They are all rabid Yoons and the National is an apparent mouthpiece for Sturgeon who has done nothing but drag her heels over Indy.

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    1. Aye, folks need to read English (by free choice) blogs for 'the truth' I've heard. :-)

      You really get to know Scotland if you move to the South of England for 3 decades. It's the beating heart of Scotland; finger right on the pulse stuff. Place is crawling with 'trusted SNP insiders' too apparently.

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  7. The SNP have been punching themselves in The throat for months now on a range of issues, NEC, GRA, the Salmond debacle and are still at 50% in the polls. That is quite a feat. Of course it helps that the opposition are utterly useless but it also shows the strength of the pro Indy sentiment which looks beyond current blips.

    I don't know if Sturgeon will stay in post, I think she probably will, but there are plenty of candidates to step in if she doesn't. I will vote SNP in May. The rest we can sort out after the election.

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    1. HandandShrimp just think where the polls could be if there had been a leadership for the last 6 years that actually wanted independence. In fact we could have been independent by now. Sturgeon is wasting a massive opportunity.

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  8. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you would be more at home on WGD. Lying for Sturgeon is all the rage there. Critical thinking is outlawed by WGD. Just your cup of tea. No one to challenge your lies or misleading information. The 100% fantasy world that Sturgeon will deliver independence will always be alive in the bonkers old folks home.

    Go on you know you want to,

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    1. I'm not allowed to post on the English Wings cult blog. Try asking to see the site accounts and you'll be 'wheeshed for the union'. Makes me wonder how it's funded.

      I can try WGD to see if he allows free speech.

      Delete
    2. Please do and stay there. He chases away anyone who mentions any wrongdoing by the SNP/Scotgov but let's his posters say that Salmond was guilty - just as Sturgeon did on multiple occasions last week. Disgraceful.

      Your lies won't be challenged on WGD. You will be truly a hero on that site - mind you most of them are bonkers. But a narcissist like you will lap up the adoration.

      PS dumb take your dumber pal Marcia with you.

      Delete
    3. Unknown - I don't care if Salmond comes back. Pay attention. That is his decision.

      Unknown I bet you are the type of arsehole who used to worship Salmond now you cast him aside as worthless. Please note that I have no problem insulting unknown people who insult me particularly arseholes like you.

      Unknown insults me and complains about me insulting people. I guess if you think you are unknown you won't be great on self awareness. Away back to your old folks home at WGD which as every day passes is resembling ONE FLEW OVER THE CUCKOOS NEST more and more.

      # WGD = CUCKOO

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    4. You are certainly needing help.

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    5. You must be a real hit on the doorsteps IfS. 'Hi Mrs McPhee. What's that, you are not sure about the Salmond conspiracy? You stupid old cow, what are you reading that old woke cuckoo WGD's blog or something? Well f**k you you stupid sturgeon transfan arsehole!'

      Are you part of the #Insultsfortheunion group? I mean I'm pretty sure the is no #insultsforindy folk, which is why I wonder.

      Delete
    6. UPDATE.

      Test successful.

      Seems, unlike wings, I can freely post on WGD.

      Delete
    7. I read he said that he was an ex-neighbour of Jim Murphy. More than likely he moved away from the neighbour from hell. :)

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    8. His reaction to reading our comments - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay0vh2rRG-E

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    9. Unknown - not good on facts are you. I moved house not Murphy. However, I do still see him at Williamwood Golf Course. I can tell him some fellow Britnat arse who hasn't got the wit to come up with a moniker called unknown was asking after him. I am sure it will make his day.

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    10. Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) - I told you WGD welcomes anyone who lies for Sturgeon.

      # moral vacuum on WGD.

      Delete
    11. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) see I told you they would love you on WGD, Clydebuilt, Fable, Old Pete. A narcissist like you would love it on WGD. They won't care if you lie or smear or cannot read properly or even "rite properley". Tam the Bam will probably worship every word you "rite".

      They will not expect you to have any morals either. So no worries there for you.

      I thought your name was Ross not James (lying again). See when you posted NP instead of SNP that is what you really think - Nicolas Party.

      Delete
  9. Smearer Skier liar ( since 2014) you REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED and are REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED by the REDACTED REDACTED against the REDACTED REDACTED moment.

    Unknown you REDACTED and REDACTED son of a REDACTED are REDACTED from REDACTED REDACTED cuckoo

    That Sturgeon is REDACTED redacting REDACTED REDACTED in SCOTLAND.

    What a REDACTED mess STURGEON is REDACTED on REDACTED on Wednesday.

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    1. Whit! IFS Are you twelve?
      The first minister will show tomorrow that Salmond's claims at the end of the day are untenable.
      Sure, Leslie Evans went the extra mile to bring forward the charges against him but the FM was duty bound to refute Salmond's attempts at "mediation/sweep under the carpet".
      She did the right thing, and do you know what? Every woman in the country applauds her for it.
      BTW IFS, Why are you giving Evans such an easy ride?

      Delete
    2. Ramstam - Hamilton and Pringles submissions put up on an Inquiry website tonight. Try reading them . Hamilton says she lied multiple times.

      It was a fit up Ramstam - just some people are slow on the uptake. I got over my disappointment in Sturgeon a while ago.

      I knew Evans was guilty about 2 years ago. Old news to me.

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  10. Though not a regular poster on James's blog, I've always read it with interest. However one barely continent poster is making it unreadable, so sayonara.

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  11. If an election is held in May, it will be interesting to see if the turnout is below 50% or below 40%.

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    1. No. For some weird reason I am 'represented' by 8 MSPs, and I wouldn't vote for any of them.

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  12. Or 30% for that matter. God knows who they will be - I haven't spoken to anyone who intends to vote.

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  13. Has anyone heard of Kieth Brown? Apparently he is the deputy leader of the Scottish National Party, and spent a large part of his grown-up life trying to kill people.

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    1. Yes, he has been in Government for a while. He is ex army which isn't a crime but your pacifism does you credit.

      Delete