Tuesday, February 2, 2021

The way forward

Should we be bracing ourselves for the sequence of twenty-in-a-row Yes majority polls to be broken? Even just from a purely statistical point of view, it's very possible that could happen - the most recent polls from both YouGov and Survation had Yes on 51%, and the most recent from Panelbase had Yes on 52%. Due to the margin of error, sooner or later you're likely to end up dropping to 49% in at least one poll. And that's before we even consider recent events, which may have checked the momentum behind the Yes movement. Nobody is free of responsibility for that. It's all very well for the SNP leadership to lecture the rank-and-file as if they're unruly schoolchlidren, but the building and maintenance of unity is a two-way process, and yesterday's sacking of Joanna Cherry was a monumentally idiotic unforced error that the leadership have no-one to blame for but themselves. None of the excuses we've heard from anonymous sources are remotely convincing. Even if you're hellbent on punishing a hugely popular frontbencher for alleged 'disloyalty', there are ways of doing it with subtlety and nous. Instead of sacking her, you could move her to a less prominent portfolio, and if she refused to take it, you could present it as a resignation. Or you could offer her a meaningful role away from the frontbench. And what you most certainly wouldn't do is sack two other promiment people from the same wing of the party at exactly the same time as sacking her. What happened yesterday looks like petty factionalism because that's exactly what it is. 

However, we are where we are, and in a strange way the results of independence polls aren't actually the most important thing in the very short-term. So close to an election, we normally set the independence numbers to one side and concentrate almost exclusively on the party political voting intention numbers. It's odd that hasn't happened yet, and it may be because an SNP win and a pro-indy majority at Holyrood look like foregone conclusions. But we know from the 2016 campaign that such an impression can be horribly deceptive. The election has to be taken by the scruff of the neck and won, whether by the SNP alone, or by the SNP and the Greens in combination, or by a three-way combination of the SNP, the Greens, and a Party X involving Alex Salmond. I've no idea whether Mr Salmond is even thinking along those lines, and I know some people are claiming it's impossible anyway because he'd be timed out by the Electoral Commission - but there are always ways and means. He could, for example, join forces with one of the small pro-indy parties that are already registered with the Electoral Commission. If he doesn't take the plunge, though, we have to be realistic and accept that the SNP and Greens are the only game in town and are the only pro-indy parties capable of winning seats. I know that's a bitter pill to swallow for people furious with both party leaderships for their stance on the trans issue and reluctance on Plan B, but it really is true - if we care about independence, this is an absolutely critical election, and in the absence of a Salmond-led party we'll need to set aside all reservations and make an SNP/Green majority happen. And, more ideally, an outright SNP majority. 

Some people are in love with the idea of building up the ISP and winning list seats that way, but without big name backing that simply isn't a viable option. We'll doubtless hear the usual misguided arguments over the coming weeks about how SNP supporters should vote "tactically" on the list for the Greens, and those siren voices should be ignored. But at the end of the day, if you vote Green in the erroneous belief that you're doing so tactically, you're at least voting for a party that has a chance of picking up list seats. That will not be the case if you vote for the ISP or another fringe party.

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49 comments:

  1. From the previous thread, on a new party, a little bit more relevant here....

    the party splits, not always fruitful, where are the SDP or Change UK right now (probably in the Lib Dems but that's not the point).

    For it to work they may need a strong, charismatic, popular leader hmmmm.......

    A few high profile talented 'switchers' to gain momentum and drive media attention hmmm...

    A passionate core of supporters united behind a cause hmmm....

    And a feasible election strategy that isn't realiant on winning FPTP seats hmmmm.....

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    1. And lots of time to register candidates, get exposure, and start having support in opinion polls.

      The latter is probably the most important thing; folk just don't vote for a party unless they think other people are voting for it en masse too.

      Of course if that happens, it could well be we end up with one mother fcuker of a Yes majority.

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  2. Johnson needs to call off his British unionist 'attack dogs'.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland/irish-pm-condemns-sinister-intimidation-as-eu-pulls-northern-irish-port-staff-idUSKBN2A20XW

    Irish PM condemns 'sinister' intimidation as EU pulls Northern Irish port staff

    LARNE, Northern Ireland (Reuters) - Ireland’s prime minister on Tuesday condemned the intimidation of officials carrying out post-Brexit checks at Northern Irish ports as a “very sinister and ugly development”.

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    1. The Irish are not afraid to challenge britnat scum like liar Johnson.

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  3. If a few high profile people jump to a party already registered,they might take quite a few with them. If they then stood as list candidates, you have the profile, the exposure, and the (relatively ) low threshold for seats. There would need to be a bit of a push though and would the SNP actively try to suppress votes for them?

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    1. The problem for the ISP is that it seems to be mostly on twitter and other online platforms which does not have much reach in the wider population. Most people are not politics junkies and aren't offended by someone tweeting something or interested in the minutia of party policy. Split off groups rarely win much before they become a footnote in some publication years later. Voters should be told that the list vote is the more important one of the 2 votes and vote SNP on both as the proportion of votes cast of the 2nd determines the seat allocation.

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  4. I used to wonder how on earth Kirsty Blackman got elected to be the deputy leader of the SNP Westminster group as she was a terrible performer on TV. She was incapable of putting across decent arguments for independence or even countering the Britnats crap and lies they would punt. I always thought surely in that large group of MPs there must be a number many of better performers.

    I now know that the reason behind all this is the fact that independence was clearly not her major interest.

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    1. In every business you have two main career path options:

      1. Work hard and become competent and reliable
      2. Find out what your boss likes and make that topic, visibly, the most fascinating aspect of your existence.

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    2. That is a better in Westminster as the Scottish Tory representatives are.



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  5. The SNP/SG shows no sign of fight. They are letting britnat Westminster and the britnat media walk all over them. The likes of Joanna Cherry have shown the right kind of fight. For whatever reason the current FM remains in awe of all things britnat.

    Liar Johnson and the disgusting cesspit of britnat Westminster deserve to be given a kicking, not just for Scotland's sake but also for the rest of the world's.

    The FM must change her attitude - and fast. I believe the people of Scotland are waiting for a courageous leader to fight for Scotland. Westminster's anti-Scottish laws must be broken.

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  6. The most objectionable thing about the ISP is not their naked ambition of parking their arses in a Holyrood seat. It's the lies, the biggest of which is their complete unwillingness to talk about the possibility of them causing a unionist majority if they manage to venture into the 5% "danger zone". In the videos they tout - "explaining" the D'Hondt voting system, they NEVER talk about that scenario. They ALWAYS start their "what if" musings by skipping straight over the 5% danger area, and talk about FIFTY PERCENT of SNP voters switching to the ISP.

    There is more chance of me hauling my 70 year-old, out-of-condition carcase down a 100 metre track faster than Usain Bolt, than there is of that happening. What on EARTH makes them think that folk are gullible enough to buy that?

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    1. You do know that you are talking total bollocks which has been disproved about 10 Million times already.
      Also please to be explaining how these two managed to be elected in 2003.
      Scottish Senior Citizens - 1.5% of the vote.
      Margo MacDonald - 1.4% of the vote.

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    2. Margo MacDonald in 2003 achieved 10.2% of the list vote in Lothian, that is why she was elected. Votes for the ISP are only going to stop the SNP gaining some list members and handing them to the UK/English supporting parties.

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    3. The ISP had very little work to do to attract this "gullible" fool as you portray it.

      The SNP and Greens have openly and loudly screamed that Women's Rights are to be removed. 52% of the population are to be ignored in the debate.

      What do voters do when a Political Party says "your voice doesn't matter"

      I was a very loyal and hardworking member of the SNP for a very long time but it was people like you who demand I weesht for Indy that eventually sickened me.
      You arrogantly call me gullible for asking that Women are at least entitled to a debate has convinced me that I made the right choice.

      I want an Independent Scotland to shape its future. I don't want any political Party to shape that future BEFORE Independence.

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    4. How are women's rights being removed?

      Margo McDonald was Margo, that is how she was elected.
      The SCUP had a few well kent faces being trumpeted in the press and tv. It was the time when people were scunnered with the cost of the new Parliament building and got the protest votes.

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  7. I note that Graham Campbell was turning his near-incomprehensible pseudo-academic verbiage on you on Twitter. Could that have, just possibly, had anything to do with you speaking up for the previous occupant of his partner's new post?

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  8. Both the Greens and the SNP have now made it crystal clear that they will ignore the concerns of Women and will push ahead at full speed with the "Woo-Woo" agenda.

    I am also and always will be an ardent supporter of Independence

    So i will hold my nose and give my constituency vote to a candidate who is not "Woo-Woo" but happens to be the SNP selection.

    On the list I will vote ISP.

    Woman's Rights and Independence are the key issues. The SNP and Greens have made their position very, very clear to me.

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    1. Fair enough, but what I don't understand is people who sing the praises of the likes of Joanna Cherry and Joan McAlpine then do the opposite of what these want by saying they're 'leaving the SNP / voting for someone else'.

      While I think the concept of gender identity is a crock of shit, sex dysphoria is a real medical thing and making life easier for people with it is the right thing to do, balanced against women's rights.

      However, I don't by the Wings dog whistle right-wing bullshit that Nicola Sturgeon is running a secret network of trans pedo rapists who control every level of Scottish governance and hatched a plot to do over Salmond before he could make a comeback, jail them and make Scotland great again.

      I find it comical that Sturgeon is both a 'radical feminist pursuing an anti-male agenda' while simultaneously planning to 'open up the ladies loos to male rapists in a free for all'. I mean whit? Talk aboot Schrodinger's sturgeon. This is tinfoil bunnet stuff of the highest order.

      Cherry et al. have already made good inroads on the GRA issue and it seems to me the best way to ensure and changes are better for all, is through the largest party in the chamber. I can't see how it would be wise to leave the SNP to the erm 'Trans pedo cultists' rather than ensure those proposing good policy are elected to have a strong voice at the center of it.

      But that's my humble opinion.

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    2. You forgot to mention Labour that supports the government's position and are having the same debate in their ranks.

      How are women's rights being removed. Taking something away, that is what remove means, which rights? I am just curious.

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    3. I've been following the whole GRA issue vaguely and more or less only from the headlines - but as far as I know there are already countries/states/jurisdiction that have had the same/similar legislation enacted. Some of them some time ago. Shouldn't there be some data now to show us if this GRA legislation affected women's rights and how if it did. Let's move from emotions and feelings to some sort of statistics which I'm sure must exist.

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    4. I'm in agreement with Sturgeon in that it seems the main problem at the moment is not specifically the law, but poor interpretation of it as companies / institutions try to do the right thing in fear of being branded 'transphobic', but end up making a mess of it. Stonewall are not helping but they just see this as income source these days I feel; once homosexual rights became largely sorted in law, they needed a new source of funding.

      Of course it's not possible just for folk just to think themselves into the opposite sex, but at the same time sex dysphoria is a very real thing and right wing dog whistle approaches to the issue like Wings is revolting. Even the Daily Mail seems to take a more balanced approach to the debate.

      As things stand, I don't see how trans people have less rights than me; we have exactly the same rights. This includes sex based rights; we both need some sort of medical certification process if we want to change sex officially. However, I'm open to making such a process easier if done sensibly and nobody's rights are impinged upon.

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    5. There has been quite a poor discussion about it as having no axe to grind myself on either side of the debate. there seems to be fixed views that won't yield which is a pity. Martin's suggestion seems to be the way by seeing what other countries have done and use that data as a discussion point.

      On a wider point I just wish the people at the top of the SNP should look themselves into a room and find compromises and stop the infighting. The removal of JC could have been handled better by thanking her for all the hard work she did. IB's reshuffle statement was a bit off. It will allow Joann a lot more freedom on the backbenches and I wish her well as he is as asset.

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    6. Smearer Skier says -" I'm in agreement with Sturgeon" - well what a surprise 😂😂😂😂😂. Who would have guessed that.

      Smearer see when Sturgeon agrees to go after not delivering independence how about you agreeing go with her and the pair of you can live happily ever after telling each other lies and agreeing that it is fine to fit up people for crimes.

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    7. Are you in agreement with Sturgeon that murder is wrong? What about theft? Arson?

      Seems you agree a lot with Sturgeon? Or maybe not?

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  9. Am I right in understanding in the reshuffle (not 'mass sacking'), of the deck chairs of the titanic, 5 (?) SNP MPs were moved to the backbenchers?

    Does nobody care about the others? May I ask why if so?

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  10. From what I can tell the others kept their feelings to themselves and either have made no public statement or have simply wished their successor well. Joanna decided to make her disatiffaction about being sacked (her words) more public and therefore naturally has brought more attention to her removal from the front bench.

    From what I can tell being on the back benches will probably suit her more, she is now free to criticise the members of her party about legislation they are introducing even publicly agreeing with Tories in this condemnation of policy if she so wishes. Front benchers are expected to 'tow the party line'

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    1. Yes, I think if you want to make it your business to openly criticize your party leadership, you should really do that from the back benches. Doing it from a cabinet/shadow position just hands your opponents a stick to beat the party with and well, is probably going to see you being put on the back benches.

      It's like any team; if you are selected you play as a team and do what the manager says. If you have concerns, you raise these off the pitch in private. You don't run around the field in the middle of games berating your team mates and telling them how to tackle the game; it's not your role.

      I'm not saying Cherry has been particularly bad for this, but it's not for no reason that unionists are championing her (and Salmond for similar) while telling everyone not to vote for her / McAlpine, but something other than SNP.

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  11. James

    I am voting ISP on the list because I actually agree with their policies and if they stood in the constituency they would have my vote as well. Not trying to game any system. If ISO could somehow get the same coverage as other parties I suspect many more would vote for them.

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    1. This is what I've been saying for a while, i.e. that polls are already showing ISP support. ISP voters are perfectly open about their support and have been saying this to pollsters. Of course in polling you can totally do this without risk even if in the end you bottled it and went mainstream, so ISP support may be higher than reality, as is often the case for small parties challenging one of the big ones.

      As a result, the 1% max for ISP is no doubt correct.

      I have looked at the ISP manifesto, but it isn't very specific and I honestly can't tell the difference from the SNP, which doesn't surprise me given the apparent origins of the party.

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  12. Wait, so British unionists terrorists threaten EU port staff working to implement the UK's brexit trade agreement and the UK prime minister responds by saying the EU needs to do something to 'ease tensions'?

    Can Johnson not call of these violent brexit thugs? After all, they are doing what his party originally threatened, i.e. that there should be no trade border in the Irish Sea and 'English brexit means N. Irish brexit' no matter what folk in NI thought.

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  13. A TALE OF TWO CONSTITUTIONS

    1. The SNP constitution was changed in 2018 to enhance the power of the current leadership over the party. This took place at the same time the leadership realised that they were going to be shown by the Judicial Review to have been acting unlawfully in persecuting Salmond.

    2. Unlike the SNP constitution the SNP leadership just keep kicking the can down the road
    when it comes down to changing Scotlands constitution to get the people of Scotland out of the UK.

    This tale tells the story of what is more important to the current leadership of the SNP.

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    1. Says the man who is happy with SNP's constitution as he's making no effort to change it, which he could do as a member.

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    2. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - what have you done to change the consitution of the SNP to make it more democratic. You are the one who says he is a member - or is that another one of your lies. You are the person who kept saying everything was fine in the SNP and if you said otherwise you are a Unionist.

      The SNP is a political party and I give them my vote so I have every right to comment.

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  14. You can tell the real indy supporters. They comment on things like brexit, the economy, the unfolding constitutional crisis, including in northern Ireland...

    While unionists focus on domestic party conspiracy theories.

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    1. Smearer Skier ( Liar since 2014) telling people what they can and cannot say or get branded as a Unionist by Smearer Skier. There seems to be a few people like you in the SNP these days - intolerant of different opinions and authoritarian.

      You know what Smearer Skier I am more than happy not to be like you - you are a proven liar.

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  15. Great to see UK-EU trade flowing freely following a seamless transition to the new Brexit arrangements.

    Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, told the Commons transport committee that the disruption feared at the Dover-Calais border when the new post-Brexit customs arrangements came into force at the start of 2021 has not materialised. He said:

    The latest information is nearly 6,000 trucks a day [moving in each direction between Dover and Calais], which is probably now about 1,000 under where you might expect it to be at this time of year.

    It’s somewhat difficult to be definitive in terms of what we’d expect, simply for the fact that there was a lot of stockpiling going on because there was a lot of concern about disruption, which hasn’t materialised.

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    1. Yes, brexiter Tories are super trustworthy. Will put English cheesemake and Scottish shellfish exporters minds at rest.

      I suppose when loads of companies can no longer legally export, it will ease traffic at channel ports, so maybe truth to the matter.

      Anyway, folks in Northern Ireland will be happy to here English trade is apparently going jolly well while they get death threats from brexiter terrorists and enjoy empty shelves.

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    2. You dont have a clue do you. I import from Germany, probably about 2 or 3 deliveries a month. I have goods waiting for a customer waiting to be uplifted for 2 weeks now. I have spoken to 5 local shipping agents and 1/2 of them have stopped even trying to bring product in. 1 in 5 deliveries is being turned away at customs. I now have to fill in an EX1, CRA, copy of customer invoice, etc etc for every shipment. The cost of shipping has increased by 15 / 20%. Schenker, Germany's largest freight forwarded wont even ship to the UK now. So please gee us peace ya clown. You know nothing of the real effect of Brexit on Scottish businesses and only make yourself look incredibly thick

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    3. We needed a container for expanding storage at my work. Serious shortage currently due to these full of stuff piled up but unable to move due to brexit.

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    4. Duggie Radge - that's you TELT!!

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  16. Better later than never and it's about time.

    Nicola Sturgeon has announced the highest daily total for vaccinations in Scotland since the programme began.

    Challenged yet again on the speed of the Scottish government’s vaccine rollout at FMQs, the first minister repeated that it was right to concentrate first on care homes – which take longer because of the nature of the population – and insisted that the programme is now accelerating for younger age-groups.

    Confirming that 38,484 people in Scotland were given their first dose of the vaccine yesterday, she said that the figure was 59% higher than last Tuesday, with over 90% of the over-80s already completed.

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  17. I am 72 and my vaccine is due on Friday. I have to travel to a vaccination centre which is fair enough. Changing from moving the vaccination centre between relatively small numbers in care homes and moving to something more like a 'drop-in' arrangement should speed things up a lot.

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    1. I would expect so.

      Scotland's population density is 65/km2 with England 275/mk2, and that's before we consider the addition factor of accessibility on top of simple distance (highlands, islands etc).

      It goes without saying that from a similar starting point, vaccinating a country like Scotland is very, very, very obviously going to be logistically more difficult and time consuming than e.g. England even if identical approaches were applied, which isn't the case.

      Comparing the two is like comparing apples and rubik's cubes.

      To be honest, we should probably be asking how things are going so slowly south of the border.

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  18. So Johnson visited a factory in the middle of a coronavirus outbreak there. One in 8 of the factory workers had been found as infected just 24 hours before.

    The man is an imbecile.

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    1. Went around breaking the 2m rule and touching people too. FFS.

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    2. It wisnae me, it wis the prime minister's office says the PM.
      If we had a truly free press this would be front page.
      If only....

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  19. Could someone explain the whole tactical list vote thing to me? I shouldn't vote SNP main and Green on list for example because?

    What I do know is that there hasn't been an Independence vote or a date set within the next 5 years, the SNP will never get my vote again.

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