Monday, February 22, 2021

Scot Goes Popcast Episode 2: Dr Tim Rideout on an independent Scottish currency

In a few days' time, the Scottish Currency Group will host a virtual conference called 'Moving Beyond the Sustainable Growth Commission'. To set the scene for that, I was joined for the second episode of the Scot Goes Popcast by Dr Tim Rideout, head of the Currency Group and also a newly-elected member of the SNP's Policy Development Committee. Topics we discussed include... 

* The six tests the Growth Commission laid down for establishing a new Scottish currency. Are they reasonable, and can they ever realistically be met? 

* Whether the euro is a better long-term bet than a Scottish currency. 

* Whether it would be quicker for Scotland to rejoin the single market via EFTA than it would be to rejoin the EU as a full member state. 

* The Panelbase poll question that Tim and I worked together on last year, which showed considerable public sympathy for the idea of a Scottish currency. 

* Would the new currency rise or fall in value against other currencies? 

* Tim's four suggestions for the name of the currency, and his own personal favourite. 

* Whether the leadership have listened to the message SNP members sent them in the internal elections a few weeks ago.

* We had a quick debate about whether Nicola Sturgeon's leadership will survive the ongoing inquiries, and whether it will affect the SNP's chances at the Holyrood election if she doesn't. (We actually disagreed on both points.) We also discussed who might replace her if she does step down. 

* Tim gives his verdict on the infamously rude reply Pete Wishart MP sent him after he made some perfectly polite suggestions about the attitude the SNP should take to the Commons vote on the Brexit deal last December.

I think you'll find the sound quality vastly improved this time.  There were a few minor gremlins, and it was just my luck that a delivery man pounded loudly on my front door midway through the recording, but I don't think that'll affect your enjoyment too much.

If you have any problems with the embedded player below, the direct link to the podcast is HERE.
 

Don't forget you can also listen to Episode 1 of the podcast, in which I spoke to Dr Yvonne Ridley about her experiences as a prisoner of the Taliban, and her thoughts on the sacking of Joanna Cherry, by clicking HERE

And if you have any *realistic* suggestions for future podcast guests, please let me know in the comments section below. The operative word here is *realistic* - people keep suggesting Devi Sridhar and Andrew Neil, but I have a feeling they might both be a bit preoccupied at the moment! Incidentally, I've no objection to having a guest from the anti-indy side of the fence, but finding someone who is actually willing to do it might be a challenge. For all his bravado about taking on all-comers, Kevin Hague rejected the idea out of hand when one of his chums kindly suggested it to him.

69 comments:

  1. A fine interview. You are getting quite professional now James.

    Was that someone at your door or his? :-)

    Very interesting. I'm all for moving away from Sterling as promptly as possible, but that needs to be realistic timescale. I see no reason why we can't keep our Scots £, just decouple in due course.

    Seems I agree with you on it being unlikely that Sturgeon will be forced out, but I'm totally with the good Dr Rideout on it making no difference if she was. It was never about Salmond and it's not about Sturgeon either. Won't make a blind bit of difference to my vote and you are certainly not going to see Yes voters back unionists because the SNP put some fresh talent at the helm. As Rideout notes, Sturgeon's already done a good stint as DFM then FM so people already imagine she's going to retire relatively soon anyway. It would only be natural for her to give someone else a chance after a term or two; if she didn't she'd be challenged and rightly so.

    Unionism makes this mistake a lot. You can see it on here in our usual suspects and their constant attacks on Sturgeon. I'm accused of being her biggest fan when in fact on balance I liked Salmond's style more and don't suffer fools gladly. For them it must somehow be about Sturgeon like it was about Salmond before her. They just don't understand that it's not.

    Scotland has been on this track for about a century now. We are just at the end of a very long process of empire / union disintegration, with each generation more Scottish and less British than the one before it. Now English nationalism is rising; the final stage in the end of the UK / British empire. That's nothing to do with Salmond or Sturgeon nor the SNP. The SNP have not persuaded Scots to indy, but have grown strong on the back of rising support for it as the outdated imperial union declines in a changing world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no such thing as a 'Scots pound'. There are BoS notes, RBS notes, and Clydedale Bank notes (for people who still use banknotes). They are all commercial banks (more realistically, not very commercially viable banks). Two are mostly owned by the UK government, and the latter is Australian. N. Irish Danske Bank notes are another version of bizarrely branded sterling paper money. In all cases, the denomination is £GBP.

      A Scottish currency requires a Scottish central bank holding a suitably vast amount of foreign currency to underwrite it. If the divying-up of the BoE's foreign currency reserve was not part of Scexit negotiations, the whole game would be a bogey, and I don't remember the SNP mentioning it - their sterlingisation plan necessarily involves not doing that. Hence, a 'Scottish currency' becomes very expensive after official separation - taxpayers would have to stump up about £2.5 billion to buy foreign currency - that's about what a Scottish currency would cost the government/people (in stark terms: £500 from every man, woman, and child).

      Delete
    2. As such, 'sterlingisation' is nuts, unless they intend to keep using sterling indefinitely.

      Delete
    3. All Scots pounds in circulation are underwritten by sterling reserves which would become a foreign currency reserve if Scotland went independent.

      Yes, a share of the BoGB's reserves, including gold, belong to Scotland. Without a share of these, Scotland would be completely debt free. It wouldn't owe anyone a brass farthing, so would have no issues funding a fully Scots £.

      With negotiations on reserves comes negotiations on UK debt.

      Delete
    4. Mouse - Clydesdale Bank were owned by NAG (Australian as you put it) now part/merged with/of Virgin Money.

      Delete
    5. Anyway, no ability to print Sterling means no Sterling debt. It's that simple. You couldn't have Scotland paying off UK sterling debt with hard foreign currency payments to the rUK so the latter could bank this while just printing new £'s to cover it's own repayments.

      Given UK debt is all in London's name so Scotland can't default on anything, unless Scotland took some UK debt on indirectly as part of negotiations to use sterling, so giving it access to sterling printing presses, then Scotland would walk away 'scot free'.

      Delete
    6. I fully agree with you that underwriting a future Scottish currency would not be a problem. The debate is more around when this should happen.

      One small point all commercial banked 'Scottish' Notes (not Scots pounds there is not such currency in circulation) are underwritten by the individual banks backing assets (this became a requirement in 2009 to ensure even if the bank went 'bust' there would be enough assets to cover the value of the notes in circulation.

      Delete
    7. The currency nonsense again - boring - as if Scotland with all its resources would be incapable of having its own currency. It would be a strong currency just like Norways and that in itself has strengths and weaknesses for an economy.

      Adam is correct the only sensible question is the timing.

      Delete
    8. All Scottish major banks have issued notes valued in sterling since the signing of the Treaty of Union, on said note the banks say the will pay the holder in sterling, meaning silver, when required, Bank of England notes once had sterling on them but this was removed when Britian left the gold standard. Scotland also had their own mint, this was shut down by Westminster.

      Delete
  2. I lost my first comment ... Thanks again for the podcast. Can you control sound levels? Your voice comes across well, the interviewee is markedly soft. That would be my techy suggestion.

    ReplyDelete
  3. For the future podcasts, perhaps one of the SNP MSP's that are retiring at the end of the Parliamentary session.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ta for this James and for raising a topic that the SNP it seems wont discuss and that is the issue of a separate Scottish Currency. The fact that he got up Pete I want to be Speaker Pishartists nose speaks volumes for Tim Rideout.

    ReplyDelete
  5. good to get he discussion out there, I always thought the merk was a good one to.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Would it be possible to add an rss feed to the podcast?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Can't you do this on ZOOM (40 minute FREE sessions) - ZOOM can record the video /audio and make it more attractive for the audience ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know if it would be more attractive - there are pros and cons. The sound quality would be poorer on Zoom, and videos can be less convenient than audio if someone is 'on the go'.

      Delete
    2. If both people have a microphone/headset the the sound is way better than what you can get like this plus the same is true for a mobile phone

      Delete
  8. Agreed Skier. The Empire Brit thing has been slipping away for years now.
    We've seen it here in Scotland but London has just realised that the Scots and their resources are slipping through their fingers.
    Slapping a Union flag on veg in the shops just irks/enrages the average voter.
    Do they think we're that stupid?
    Salmond or Sturgeon is kinna irrelevant to me, although with an election weeks away the Unionists will be looking for blood on the walls.
    Highly unlikely IMO, though the Unionist press will nae doot gie it laldy and milk every perceived division.
    Best advice - dinna take the bait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ramstam - says " Best advice - dinna take the bait" = ignore criminal behaviour = condone criminal behaviour. Ramsatam clearly choosing option 2.

      Would you say the same if it happened to you Ramstam. In fact where do you draw your own line when ignoring such behaviour.?

      Trump said he could shoot someone in broad daylight in Times Square and his supporters would still vote for him. This is the path you are on.

      Delete
    2. What are you doing IfS? You don't seem to be doing anything other than sitting in your armchair moaning on the internet.

      What are you suggestion Ramstan do? Lynch sturgeon? Hold a kangaroo court and string her up?

      It's a matter for the authorities and the authorities alone.

      And why should it affect how Ramstan votes unless he is the constituency of someone found guilty of something? I can't vote for Sturgeon so even if she was found guilty of some heinous crime why would that affect my vote. My choice is between my local candidates, just as it will be for Ramstan.

      This is why the Salmond-Sturgeon dispute won't affect the election; nobody is voting for Salmond and only Sturgeon's constituents can vote for her.

      Delete
    3. People could vote for Trump. Only Nicola sturgeon's constituents can vote for Sturgeon.

      Seems you don't know how voting works so maybe should not advise people.

      Delete
    4. Smearer Skier (liar since 2914) - option 3 you have chosen - colluding and covering up,

      There is no "Salmond - Sturgeon dispute" - it is about standards of behaviour in government, abuse of power, misuse of public funds, plotting to put an innocent man in jail and common decency. Common decency being something you sadly lack.

      Delete
    5. Can you provide a link to those convicted of this plot or are you just a right-wing lynch mob?

      I will let the authorities deal with this. The Salmond cases show Scotland's justice system to be true and fair!

      Delete
    6. Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) says "I will let the authorities deal with this"

      Good so pissof and stop commenting on the matter and stalking me with your lies and misrepresentation.

      Of course you won't because as you have shown so many times previously you are a liar.

      The Salmond cases show the Judges are fair but the COPFS is in Sturgeons back pocket.

      Delete
    7. Have you some evidence that the COPFS are in Sturgeon's back pocket or are you just holding your own kangaroo court to had out guilty verdicts without trial?

      That's not a Scotland Scots want.

      Delete
    8. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - " wheesht for the union" - that's you. That's the type of Scotland you want - a phoney devolved Scotland ruled by the Tories.

      It's in Salmonds submission.

      I thought you were leaving it to the authorities.

      So once again you have proven yourself a liar.

      Delete
  9. Mouse: Your commenting on this blog alternates between legitimate comments (albeit legitimate comments I usually disagree with) and trolling. Until now I've deleted the trolling and left the other posts intact, but please note that my patience is not inexhaustible, and if you keep poking me with a stick I'll just start blanket-deleting all of your comments until you take the hint. That goes for several other people too. And as for JR Tomlin's defamatory claims that I have been "defending transphobia", don't even dream of attempting to post something like that on this blog again.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sorry to see Emily MacKintosh, SNP Senior Communications Officer debasing herself by working for Sturgeon. Emily was a nice kid who went to Williamwood High school, Clarkston at the same time as my son. Now Sturgeon has got her lying on Twitter to try and cover up Sturgeon's wrong doings. They have taken a nice young women and corrupted her.

    Sturgeon must go and take all her cabal with her - disgusting and unacceptable behaviour.

    It is NOT about Salmond or Sturgeon it is about standards of behaviour in government, abuse of power, misuse of public funds, plotting to put an innocent man in jail and common decency.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm sure if some people are found guilty of the crimes you state, they will struggle to get elected. So far, nobody has and everyone is innocent.

      Certainly, my local SNP candidates have zero involvement in any of this and that will apply to most Scots, so there's no reason for them to change their vote.

      Delete
    2. Note collective punishment is illegal under the Geneva convention.

      While it's up to people how they vote, it is morally wrong to punish a group of people for the crimes of individuals.

      So no, I will not punish innocent, hard working SNP MSPs for the crimes that may have been carried out by an individual member.

      Delete
    3. Smearer Skier liar since (2014) - never asked you or anyone to change their vote so why don't you pissof with your lying nonsense.

      Just how do you know your local candidates have no involvement when clearly you know nothing about the matter. Not everyone involved is elected you moron.

      Delete
    4. What does this mean apart from wanting Sturgeon and others out of office?

      "Sturgeon must go and take all her cabal with her"

      And can you provide a list of 'cabal' names with associated legal convictions, links to these, or are you a 'guilty until proven innocent' kind of person? That's not a Scotland I want to live in. I believe in fair justice and innocence until proven guilty, just as was afforded to Salmond by the free democracy that is Scotland.

      Delete
    5. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you believe in lying and covering up.

      Salmond provided some names for you in his submission - thought you said you read it. Charlatan Smearer.

      " Free democracy that is Scotland" that is utter tosh. There is no free democracy for Scotland - never has been. As long as we are part part of the UK there is no democracy for Scotland. As you cannot see that I doubt you are an independence supporter but a devolution person like Sturgeon. You want to live in Tory controlled Scotland. You are a charlatan Smearer.

      Delete
    6. No list then.

      Thought not mr 'guilty without trial'; a classic right wing Tory attitude.

      Delete
    7. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - don't need a trial to see you are a liar and a charlatan who will cover up any wrong doing to keep Scotland under the control of the UK.

      Delete
    8. Why don't some of you mump about the cover up of the Westminster Governments deals for supplies of health board equipment, 100s of billions of pounds, to their friends in high places, who took a large cut before passing the orders on to the actual suppliers.

      Delete
    9. William Purves - old news found out about that months ago - Britnats will be corrupt is that news to you?

      Delete
  11. The man tipped to head the Union Unit at Downing Street.

    https://archive.is/99IBv

    ReplyDelete
  12. Paul Kavanagh would be a good guest to have on if he has recovered from his recent stroke. He must be getting better as he is back to blogging.

    https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2021/02/23/what-would-alex-do/

    ReplyDelete
  13. Shows you not to trust certain people on here who pretend to speak for Salmond and say it's wrong that the complainers remain anonymous.

    In Salmond's own words:

    The blocking of the Committee in this matter and others is nothing
    whatsoever to do with protecting the anonymity of complainants, which I support and have upheld at every stage in this process...

    It was, in fact, me who instructed Counsel to seek that anonymity on the part of the women concerned...


    And Salmond is right on this. It's the law of Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - Salmond instructed his counsel to seek anonymity for the two original complainers during the JUDICIAL REVIEW. The Scotgov who continually go on about safeguarding their anonymity didn't even bother to turn up at court to request their anonymity.

      This is detailed by Salmond in his final submission.

      This is a totally different court order from the criminal trial. Lady Dorian at the criminal trial made the anonymity order.

      So once again Smearer you post inaccurate facts. Lying or useless?


      Delete
    2. My quotes come from his final submission, which I guess you have not read, otherwise you'd recognise them.

      He supports their anonymity and 'has done at every stage of the process'.

      It is others that want to break good scots law as they have no respect for that.

      Delete
    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you Smearer are a liar and a serial misleader. I never said he didn't support their anonymity.

      You of course are the one who has tried to goad me, on multiple occasions, in to breaking good Scots law as you put it by revealing names of alphabet woman. You Smearer are a charlatan.

      I have read his submissions. You, of course, choose not to refer to lots of other stuff he says.

      Delete
    4. So you agree then it is right and proper that the complainers remain anonymous just as Salmond wants?

      Delete
    5. An independence activist was so outraged when he found out who some of the alphabet women were he posted the info on Twitter. He is now awaiting sentencing, lost his job and life in ruins.

      You on the other hand cover up wrong doing. You are a shameless charlatan.

      Delete
    6. It is not the Scottish Government who is to blame,it is the civil servants who are members of the Crown Office in Westminster.

      Delete
    7. William Purves - Salmond disagrees. Try reading his submissions or if that is too much for you try reading the excerpt I posted below.

      Delete
  14. James, I don't do Twitter but I do read your comments some times. Your tweet The SNP in 10 years time ........ some of the replies to your tweet just illustrates to me the complete ignorance of the facts of some people.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Interesting that the Parliament Corporate Body withdrew Salmond's evidence under pressure from the Crown Office and replaced it with a redacted version. The Corporate Body is not the same as the Scottish Government. Its members are For clarity:
    The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body (SPCB) has six members:
    The Presiding Officer, Ken Macintosh MSP (Chair); Jackson Carlaw MSP; Liam McArthur MSP; David Stewart MSP; Sandra White MSP; and Andy Wightman MSP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They must all bin in on the Salmond plot too. All in Sturgeon's secret trans cabal cult!

      You know how Carlaw and McArthur worship Sturgeon! It's obvious. Why can't you see the truth!

      #StuAnon

      Delete
  16. of course you won't find this sort of major economic story discussed on 'pro-indy' English blogs. Likewise the usual suspects will keep quiet about it on here because, well, you know, 'wheesht for the union'.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-migration/uk-data-points-to-record-outflow-of-foreign-workers-in-2020-idUSKBN2AN1DS

    UK data points to record outflow of foreign workers in 2020

    LONDON (Reuters) - Almost a million people born outside Britain may have left the country last year as the coronavirus pandemic appears to have triggered the biggest net outflow of foreign-born workers on record, according to official data released on Tuesday.

    Scots born who moved to England are heading back to Scotland too for similar reasons, with academic studies finding rising anti-Scottish abuse driving people out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014). - " wheesht for the union " that's you.

      Delete
  17. The lying Britnat Sarah Smith on lying Britnat tv today at 3.45 pm said Salmonds submission had been removed. I checked and all 4 are still there.

    The report also said "Scottish Prosecution service raised grave concerns over submission." I'll bet they are worried but it is nothing to do with naming the alphabet women or any of these devices for stopping the truth it is because Salmond said the COPFS under its current leadership is not fit for purpose.

    I say the SNP under its current leadership is not fit for purpose.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was the corporate body that have raised the issue. It's stuffed full of Sturgeon's enemies.

      Delete
    2. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) -" wheest for the union" - that's you.

      Delete
    3. I post anti uk stories, its those that don't which are wheesht for the union. Like wings

      Delete
    4. Still the same old dirge from the Bath supporting IFS. Salmond may now not appear. The Parliamentary committee now needs an enquiry as to the farce they have created.

      Delete
    5. Unknown - too lazy or stupid to think of a moniker or to scared to use your normal one. As ever not one of you unknowns ever have any counter argument/facts. My money is on you being one of the residents of the old folks home commonly known as WGD.

      Delete
    6. Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) - says "It was the corporate body that have raised the issue." Nope it was the COPFS. Lying again?

      Delete
  18. James your Twitter - " said an SNP spokesperson" sounds like Smearer Skier to me. Never any factual countering of Salmonds submissions just smears.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you give us a list of all the Scottish politicians that believe in your grand conspiracy?

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - it is neither grand nor my conspiracy. It is your stinking conspiracy that you and Sturgeon are desperate to cover up.

      Delete
    3. I'm part of it? Lol.

      I think the UK civil service did go after salmond. 7/9 in court were in the pay of Whitehall.

      If they'd been in the pay of Murrell, you might sound more plausible.

      I can't see uk civil servants perjuring themselves, risking jail, for free to help a scottish nationalist they don't even work for help his wife climb a few rungs on the career ladder, promoting the end of the UK.

      Just sounds far fetched.

      Delete
    4. Smearer Dkier (liar since 2014) - pretty pathetic attempt at covering up. Of course your 7/9 comment is just mince.

      Delete
  19. Excerpt from Salmonds final submission:

    " ......am very clear in my position that the evidence supports a deliberate, prolonged, malicious and concerted effort amongst a range of individuals within the Scottish Government and the SNP to damage my reputation, even to the extent of having me imprisoned.

    That includes, for the avoidance of doubt , Peter Murrell (Chief Executive), Ian McCann (Compliance Officer) and Sue Ruddick (Chief Operating Officer) of the SNP together with Liz Lloyd, the First Ministers Chief of Staff. There are others who for legal reasons, I am not allowed to name."

    Now the charlatan Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) used to say I'll wait till I hear from Salmond direct. Now you have and you are trying to cover up. You are a charlatan Smearer.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Can we have a list of all the SNP politicans who are publicly saying that Salmond is lying and that members senior of the SNP were not trying to to damage Salmonds reputation? and that it is all just a figment of Alex's imagination/ or that he's lying? Must be a large number of them.

    To me most likely answer is that 99.9% of the politicians don't actually know what actually happened and therefore are quite rightly keeping their personal opinions to themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Potentially interesting blog, but the sound quality for Rideout was so bad there was lots I could not hear, made worse unfortunately by the fact he seems to be a quiet speaker (and to be fair I was exercising!). But one argument I would take issue with. Rideout seemed to make a very easy assumption a Scottish currency would do very well compared to the UK pound. James quite rightly as devil's advocate took him up on this. Why? Rideout's reply was frankly feeble: UK governments always mess up badly and to illustrate this he cited how we used to get masses of dollars against the pound. But it does not take much economics or history to see that for the past hundred years or so Britain has been a declining world power. Quite naturally its currency, while oscillating in the medium term, has gone down. To use this argument to prove the Scottish currency would compare favourably with the UK is hopeless though there is of course an interesting discussion to be had. Many here seem to assume the Scottish pound would be 'like Norway.' Why? Norway has had a strong currency since at least 1916 and is also the fifth-largest oil exporter and third-largest gas exporter in the world, while right now Britain is barely an oil or gas exporter at all! I fully accept we can argue about resources till the cows come home but just to blithely assume Scotland will somehow magically become Norway is not convincing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry about the sound. On other platforms it seems to record me perfectly well. Myview is that the S£ would stay more or less the same against a basket of the dollar etc. I certainly would never say we want a Norway Kroner type uber-strong currency. That would wipe out a lot of our exports and be very damaging. Only Norway thing I advocate is in terms of EEA / EFTA and being back in the Single Market.

      Delete