Sunday, November 15, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll suggests strong backing for a Plan B: Almost two-thirds of voters want the Scottish Government to take decisive action to circumvent Westminster's attempts to 'veto' an independence referendum

Quite a number of you specifically asked me to use the new Panelbase poll to ask about support for a Plan B option for securing an outright independence mandate if the UK Government continues to refuse a Section 30 order. I was initially sceptical, because I had posed questions about the two main Plan B ideas in the earlier polls this year. The January poll found backing for the Scottish Parliament going ahead with legislation for a referendum, and allowing the courts to decide whether the vote can take place. And then the June poll found even stronger support for the option of using a scheduled election to obtain an indy mandate. I wasn't sure there was much to be gained from repeating those questions. However, it was pointed out to me that with big votes coming up very soon at the SNP conference, it was important to have up-to-date information about the public's wishes. So on this occasion I decided to simply ask about the general principle of pressing ahead with a Plan B. 

Imagine that the pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in next year's Scottish Parliament election, but the UK Government still refuses to agree to an independence referendum. In that scenario, do you think the Scottish Government should ensure the Scottish people are given a choice on independence over the course of the next parliamentary term, or should it accept that the UK Government has a veto on an independence referendum? 

The Scottish Government should ensure the Scottish people are given a choice on independence: 63% 

The Scottish Government should accept that the UK Government has a veto on an independence referendum: 37% 

If I had been writing the question a week later than I did, I might have worded it slightly differently, because 'accepting a veto' closely echoes language used in the SNP leadership's draft motion for conference, which is based on the questionable assumption that simply saying "we don't accept the veto" will by some metaphysical means force the UK Government to grant a Section 30 order. It's important to stress that the result of this question indicates that the overwhelming majority of the public want the Scottish Government to actually take action to circumvent the veto, rather than continuing to talk impotently about how "unsustainable" the situation supposedly is. 

60% of Labour voters think that there should be a democratic choice on independence, regardless of Downing Street's wishes, as do a very healthy 46% of Liberal Democrat voters. However, I couldn't help but think it's richly ironic that a slender majority of people who vote for a party with the words "liberal" and "democrat" in its name think there should be a Westminster veto on the democratic process in Scotland! (Admittedly the subsample of Lib Dem voters is pretty small.)  As you'd expect, the strongest support for the veto comes from Tory voters (86%), people who voted No in 2014 (61%), and people who would still vote No in a second indyref (82%). 

Tonight's second question is a little different from the others. When I ran the poll in June, Dr Tim Rideout of the Scottish Currency Group asked me to add on a question about currency, and offered to provide funding to cover the additional cost. It was already too late in the day by that point, but he made the same request this time, and I agreed. So this question was written by Tim (or at least he was the one that sent it to me), although I did tweak the wording just slightly before submitting it to Panelbase. 

The SNP's policy is that if Scotland becomes independent, a new Scottish currency would be introduced as soon as practicable after Independence Day, to ensure that Scotland has control over its own monetary and fiscal policy, and interest rates. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this policy? 

Completely agree: 30% 
Somewhat agree: 29% 
Somewhat disagree: 12% 
Completely disagree: 29% 

TOTAL AGREE: 59% 
TOTAL DISAGREE: 41% 

Bear in mind that what is described in the question as the SNP's policy is what was passed at conference last year, and is somewhat more radical than the leadership's own wishes in calling for a new currency "as soon as practicable". Naturally the strongest backing for the policy comes from current Yes supporters (89%), people who voted Yes in 2014 (86%), and SNP voters (87%). But intriguingly half of Labour voters want a Scottish currency in the event of independence, as do a significant minority of 2014 No voters (37%). 

You'll doubtless have spotted that this result appears to directly contradict the recent Survation poll for Progress Scotland, which showed support for retaining Sterling in the long-term. The reason for the difference is probably that the new question briefly explained the rationale for a change of currency. It looks like respondents were convinced by the need for Scotland to be able to control its own monetary policy and interest rates.

Speaking personally, I'm a tad ambivalent on this subject, because polls that specifically mention the pound (as the Progress Scotland poll did) tend to find there's an emotional pull for voters towards retaining a currency they're familiar with.  But the experience of 2014 suggests that having a credible policy that doesn't depend on Westminster acting reasonably may ultimately be more important than having a policy that is superficially popular.  So on balance I'm inclined to think that moving towards a new currency with a degree of urgency is the correct approach.

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There's still more to come from the poll over the coming days - if you'd like to be the first to know, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.

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You can read my piece in the Sunday National on last night's results HERE.

25 comments:

  1. Unionist getting increasingly desperate now that their attempt to split the Yes vote has gone absolutely nowhere.

    Yes = less than 50%, unionists be like 'All the SNP do is talk about independence! They've totally abandoned running the country to focus relentlessly on independence! They will do anything to break up the UK! Every waking minute is spent thinking about how to destroy our extra special, bestest ever in the history of the universe, dearest treasured union!"

    Independence hitting 50% or greater and unionists be like 'The SNP don't want independence, but are secret unionists! They'll never give you the indy you want! Them wanting iref2 is just a bluff! They are secretly in league with London to jail true independence supporters like Salmond! Murrell controls the whole UK, including the London met police! It's all a big conspiracy to further Sturgeon's career! Vote for someone else, like the people's front of Judea or the Judean people's front! Don't vote SNP...there will be no iref...don't vote SNP...give up on the iref...'

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    1. Probably one of Cummings's dumbass ideas, and as successful as the herd immunity plan.

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    2. There you are one of SS personalities telling everybody not to vote SNP. Clearly not the personality that claims to be a member of the SNP.

      You then have another SS personality talking to one of the other personalities. Sad - what a confused mind. Really should seek help.

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    3. You don't disagree with my analysis then.

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    4. I disagree that your confused multiple personality mind can actually do an analysis.

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    5. It's only you seeing multiple versions of people.

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    6. That's what all the people with multiple personalities think!

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  2. I was of the opinion in 2014 that Scotland having its own currency was the correct option and nothing since has changed my mind. Glad to see more people holding the same opinion.

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    1. We can call it the Scottish pound and have our own banks print it.

      Won't be 'legal tender' in England, but who the cares.

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    2. Yes, I agree, who cares. When I go to another country I exchange my money for theirs. It's not hard.

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    3. 'We don't want your Scottish monopoly money in our [English] shops, but if you vote for indy, we'll stop using it!' is real hearts and minds stuff.

      #preciousunion

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  3. Plan B is absolutely essential as is our own currency. Westminster will not give us independence but will offer a type of independence which means that they still control Scotland. We will become a veritable Bantustan or a Scottish Free State in hock to Westminster. This will create the split they need

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  4. I agree who cares. When I go to another country I exchange my money for theirs. It's easy.

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  5. Going through all the questions from your last three polls (and they are far more revealing than yes/no to indy), it's obvious that the ceiling for indy vote at the moment (and probably in the immediate future) is at about 65 per cent. So there are about 10-12 per cent more people in the general population who will/could vote yes if nudged into the right direction. Locating these people should be everyone's priority in 2021.
    I'm really glad the currency question was included and the result's much better than I expected. As there'll be lots of unionist attack on the lines of you'll have to join euro sooner or later, deficit etc, it has to be repeated over and over again that EU membership will be sorted in a separate referendum after the independence (independence is about our choices of which EU membership could be one if majority votes for it) and also that EU members decide on their own when to join euro and not the EU. There'll be a Scottish currency called Scottish pound and it will be stable (certainly more stable than the English pound).
    I wonder what kind of Tory messaging we're going to end up now in Scotland after Cummings' departure. I can't really see much change happening - it's Johnson that's their problem and not Cummings.

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  6. Can anyone explain why we couldn't switch to the Euro on day one. Regardless of joking the EU or not I would rather use a currency backed by 500 million people and 27 countries. Why tie ourselves to the Pound and Westminster manipulation?

    Many countries use the American Dollar. Why shouldn't we use the Euro?

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    1. WE ALREADY HAVE SCOTTISH POUNDS, no need to change to suit Westminster. Their value will be in international market, not London.

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    2. Hi Julia -There is a really good book explaining why a country needs its own currency if you are interested in this sort of thing. Explains the terms fiat currency, sovereign currency and why having your own currency allows you to set your own interest rates, run your own fiscal policy etc. It is by Stephanie Kelton, The deficit myth. It isn't hard going, it's quite easy to read, even I could understand it. When you read it you will realize how cruel and unnecessary the Westminster government's austerity policy is. It is widely available in bookstores and your library should have it. There are also other people who talk about Scottish currency issues come Independence - Google Tim Rideout Scotland. He talks very lucidly about launching our own currency - add Scotland to your search because there are others with that name. Also, Richard Murphy of Taxresearch.org.uk is very interesting. There are all kinds of good articles on Scotland having its own currency. Most of them talk about modern monetary theory which isn't modern nor a theory but allows a country with its own currency to chart its own course - spend money on health care, affordable housing, alleviating/abolishing poverty, reforming the prisons etc etc - all the kinds of things a caring and compassionate society can/should do. Hope that helps - and I hope this attempt gets posted. My previous one failed.

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  7. The best plan for Scotland is to have its own currency. If you really have the time and interest in the benefits of sovereign currency read Stephanie Kelton, The deficit myth. It is well worth the read. Scotland with its own currency could really look after its own people and environment very very well. I dont think the Euro is the way to go and definitely not sterling. Westminster will play all the games in the book if Scotland stays with sterling. There are also good you tube talks about sovereign currencies and modern monetary theory (it is not modern nor a theory by the way). There is Richard Murphy of Taxresearch.org.uk. Also, Tim Rideout is very good at explaining the steps to creating a Scottish currency. It is very straight forward and very logical.

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  8. You could - some countries have done it without the ECB's permission and without any aggro from them - like Montenegro, but the Scottish pound (and we're just going to share the name with the English pound, it's going to be a completely different currency - the name stays the same really because some people are emotionally attached to the name, so it's going to be easier for them) is going to be a stable currency. Healthy export/import balance, higher GDP per capita then England's, oil exporter, savings in the banks - there's absolutely no reason why it shouldn't be stable.

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  9. Julia: You may have seen in various other sites references to FIAT currency, or Fiscal Automaty, or, 'control over the economy'. Real economists, actual experts, have spent time and brain power trying to help folk like me & possibly you to understand how government budgets and national economies work. It is not easy to grasp this stuff.

    Especially as about 40 years ago Mrs Thatcher maliciously led so many of us to think national economies worked like household economies/budgets which is very far from the truth. (Too many refs to start explanation here.)

    If the Euro was so advantageous then Denmark and Sweden would use it. They don't. If it would benefit Scotland we should opt to use it but I guess we will not.

    This is a very good question which needs airing in any forthcoming campaign. Too many people think like I
    used to, like maybe you do. Our currency is hugely important as is our control over it.

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  10. Use the Scottish Pound, but not tied to the English pound.

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  11. It seems that the SNP will disregard the above Poll. I expect you will be heckled and what not fro above Poll by supposed SNP members for daring to produce suggest a Poll.

    I cant be convince that we should keep the Brit Peso, Brit Lira or Brit Drachma either. I prefer we adopt our own currency and not the now worthless Yoon Pound. The Yoon Pound will become even more worthless after a no deal Brexit but perhaps that is the real objective of the Lunatics running UK PLC.

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  12. 1. Your own currency allows you a good measure of control over your own economy.

    2. Your own currency can allow you to let the value of your currency float on international markets and therefore help to keep your economy in balance if exports and imports are an important part of your economy.

    3. A Scottish currency will be a strong currency due to all the natural resources Scotland has.

    4. Being a member of the euro is signing up to monetary union with the other countries in the EU. Scotland at present is in a monetary union with England and the policy of that monetary union is determined by the needs of Englands SE region by the Bank of England.

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  13. Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon did not confirm Blackfords assertion of a referendum next year during her corona virus briefing on BBC.

    Yesterday Dr Phillipa Whitford did not confirm Blackfords assertion of a referendum next year on Newsnight.

    Anyone actually in the SNP backing him up?

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    1. You let the mask slip too often to be any good at this.

      It was a briefing on coronavirus.

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