Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Progress Scotland poll: By 3-1 margin, voters want the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government to have control over all decisions affecting the people of Scotland's lives

Well, the first thing to say about the latest batch of results from the Progress Scotland/Survation poll is that they include a question about an independent Scotland's currency that is very similar to the one I've been strongly urged to ask in my own forthcoming poll, so I may have been saved the trouble.  Perhaps disappointingly, an absolute majority of respondents (54%) want to keep the pound in the long-term.  Only 19% favour the most likely compromise of retaining the pound in the short-term and moving to a Scottish currency later on, and a mere 5% would want a Scottish currency straight away.  Just 10% want to join the euro.

Another mildly disappointing result is that a slim plurality (40% to 38%) want the UK Government to retain control over foreign affairs and defence.  On the face of it, that contradicts the desire of a clear majority in the poll for Scotland to become an independent country, although respondents may have just been answering in respect of what they think should happen if Scotland remains a devolved part of the UK.

The good results are, however, very good.  By the decent margin of 45% to 34%, respondents say that independence would be beneficial for the Scottish economy in the long run - radically different from polling findings in the run-up to the 2014 indyref.  An enormous majority of 62% to 18% say that all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish Parliament and Government - that one should terrify unionists.  By 61% to 22%, respondents feel that Scotland's relationship with the EU should be decided by the Scottish Parliament and Government.  And the notion that independence would be more economically damaging than Brexit is rejected by the narrow plurality of 39% to 37%.

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NEW CROWDFUNDER: On Saturday I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas.  If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.

72 comments:

  1. Would it be possible to ask the currency question in order of preference? An STV option might give clearer results than FPTP

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  2. 62% to 18% - ya beauty. Will someone get off their backside in the SNP and get us independence. Anyone - it's an open goal. As Nike used to say just do it.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. IDS, Form your own party - DIY!

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    2. Ramstam - so the SNP is not the party of independence? - is that what you are saying? - do you not want me to vote for the SNP? - is that what you are saying?

      PS Just who authorised the removal of Salmond from the SNPs history? Was it the members? Did the branches vote on this? Was it the NEC? Was it the Murrells? Come on Ramstam surely you must know such a thing. The SNPs first ever FM of Scotland and the only man in 313 years that gave the people of Scotland a vote on their freedom.

      Delete
  3. "An enormous majority of 62% to 18% say that all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish Parliament and Government"; and "an absolute majority of respondents (54%) want to keep the pound in the long-term"
    The only conclusion to draw from those two statements is that a large proportion of the electorate have no clue what they're talking about.
    As long as we use someone else's currency, major decisions affecting the people of Scotland will continue to be made elsewhere.

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  4. I strongly suspect that the results for the currency question are a combination of inertia ("I want as little change as possible"), people not having thought about what they want and why, and some leftover fear from the first indyref. At any rate, an independent Scotland would not be bound to keep the pound forever just because voters now (or even voters in a newly independent Scotland) wanted it. Same with keeping the monarchy. Once Scotland is independent, these are all questions that can be revisited.

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    1. I think your assessment is correct Holly. Until recently i have not really understood the currency question and certainly that decision should be left to after Independence and without interference from Westminster.
      Richard Murphy at taxresearch is very good explaining this as is he on the GERS figures .The more these two are discussed the better so please let as many of your contacts know about the site.
      Ally

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    2. Here is the link.
      https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/09/11/does-scotland-need-its-own-currency/
      Ally

      Delete
  5. Most people don't understand the importance of currency to the economy and well being of an independent country. It is not really a useful question to ask. Scotland will have its own currency on independence, the currency can be called the pound but it will be a Scottish pound. Using someone elses currency is not independence.

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    1. Spot on Penny - it will be a strong currency - due to Scotlands natural resources - the only problem Scotlands currency will have is it being too high in value like Norways. Of course so many people in Scotland are brainwashed with nonsense like GERS they do realise how strong a currency Scotlands currency will be.

      I prefer the currency name to be the OILY pound.

      In 2014 the decision to promote " sharing" the pound was a political decision. In the end it was a wrong decision both politically and economically.

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    2. Yes, Scots already see the £ Scots as their own currency. After all, when they try to use it in England, it is often rejected as 'not legal tender in the rUK'.

      So saying they'd like to keep it post indy doesn't equal people saying they want to use the English pound / BoE.

      Delete
  6. It's a puzzle as to how folk can "want the UK Government to retain control over foreign affairs and defence" and at the same time "say that all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish Parliament and Government". Can you shed any light on that?

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  7. James I think the defence / foreign affairs matter is a confidence thing. Ultimately post Indy Indy vote there should be a long transition to drip the idea of a fully independent defence force,foreign affairs and currency.

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    1. James, My reading of the currency response is that if you called a new currency the Scottish Pound rather than say Dollar or Scotsmerk many of the respondents would go for it.
      Some folk need reassuring.
      Having said that, in 2014 we tried too hard to say that nothing much would change. This took the radical edge off the YES campaign and IMO opinion was a mistake.
      We should have put difficult questions to NO but missed an open goal.

      Delete
  8. Also re currency what is " the long term "
    5 / 10 / 20 years. I really dont think that the currency question will be a deciding factor in most people's minds tbh

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    1. Yep I agree ST, but the unionists will do their best to make it an issue. The more it is discussed now though the better Please see my reply to Holly and spread the link to as many of your contacts as possible.
      Ally

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  9. Ponsoby and Ian Blackford both giving Ferrier a public lashing last night on Scotland Tonight, STV. Personally I am getting fed up with this non stop public flogging.

    Perhaps the Britnat media should have a look at themselves and Ponsoby should reflect on his silence when a Tory MP travelled home on a train to Darlington from Westminster with Covid symptons in May this year.

    Perhaps if Blackford and the SNP had been doing their job and highlighting this Tory MPs actions were wrong Ferrier might not have done what she did.

    Both the Tory and the SNP MPs were wrong but the imbalance in reaction says it all about double standards. The SNP need to have a look at themselves. They are better at throwing their own people under the bus than the Tories.

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  10. Here is more from Richard Murphy:- ‘I can accuse the government of being corrupt without fear now, because the evidence supports my case. And that’s profoundly worrying.’

    http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/10/12/i-can-accuse-the-government-of-being-corrupt-without-fear-now-because-the-evidence-supports-my-case-and-thats-profoundly-worrying Murphy.
    Ally

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  11. Some independence supporters/SNP members are either very dense or they can't handle the truth.

    If a certain alphabet women walked about wearing a t-shirt saying "I am women .... and I hate Salmond ". some independence supporters would still not know who women....was.

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    1. Given only 1 of the alphabet women is/was actually some sort of SNP 'politician' (the one that made the most minor hand on the leg in the car allegation), and 7/9 were Whitehall civil service employees, I'd be pretty surprised if the average person on the street would recognise them.

      Even Sturgeon didn't know about them until Salmond (or Aberdein maybe) told her in 2018.

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    2. (Or Aberdein maybe) - what you aren't sure Skier. Sums you up - posting pish all over this site. So Skier you are dense or you do know and are deliberately covering up. I think the latter and that's why I think you are a disgrace.

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    3. (Or Aberdein maybe) - oh that comment relates to the meeting ( March 2018) that Sturgeon forgot about then remembered again in her written submision ( June 2020) to the Parliamentary inquiry and then did her best to avoid mentioning it again on her carcrash interview on Sunday with Sophy Ridge and called it a fleeting opportunistic meeting at FMQs.

      The meeting Aberdein testified in court was a formal meeting arranged by Sturgeon's office in her office - breaking all the rules by not recording it in the official FM diary and not taking any notes of the meeting . Serious offences to say the least. No notes Skier and that's why you do not know exactly what was said in the meeting. No notes/ no diary entry because Sturgeon didn't want anyone to know about what was being discussed and who was there. She has lied ever since in a failed attempt to cover it up - just like Skier - a liar protecting a liar. These are serious offences but far from her worst in this scandal.

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    4. (Or Aberdein maybe) - who was at the meeting in Sturgeons office on March 2018. Well it should be a documented fact - as per the strict government regulations but of course it was not documented - a serious offence.

      Aberdein testified at the criminal trial that Women.... of the alphabet women was in attendance. So you may want to consider was it appropriate for a complainer to be there at the meeting at all and is it believable she was just a junior making the coffee or something as Skier would have you believe.

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    5. So let's take Skiers opinion that ONLY 2 SNP members were involved - if that is true - why have they not been kicked out of the party. Somehow in Skier's moral compass it seems two people trying to send an innocent man to jail is ok because it is not 4 or 5 or 7. Of course someone like Skier may say perhaps they have been kicked out - well they haven't .

      The SNP leadership are very selective who they throw under the bus and when.

      Delete
  12. Why is my local SNP branch holding a candidate hustings?

    I thought Peter Murrell controlled Scotland?

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  13. Seems to me that Sturgeon and co did pretty much everything recommended [for the UK as a whole] apart from what they couldn't do, i.e. a short almost full lockdown, as they don't have control of furlough.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54528983

    Covid Sage documents: The scientific evidence and what No 10 then did

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  14. For context, why don't you compare the last 7 days with cases for the previous 7 days in Scotland and the 7 days before that.

    Boris and co are an incompetent rabble yet the situation in Scotland is only marginally better, and following exactly the trend as the rest of the UK.

    A Lancet paper pointed out, countries that have done well are those where administrations enjoy a higher degree of public trust and where government public health messaging has been clear.

    “With a few exceptions, such as Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, and South Korea, political leaders have struggled to secure public trust and thus support for continued lifestyle changes,” the Lancet paper concludes.

    Scotgov has had public trust and support, yet deaths due to Covid as registered on the death certificate (a more accurate measure) and case numbers are not significantly different to England where there is hardly any faith in Boris. I'd hypothesis things would be radically different in England if Sir Keir were in charge.

    Sir Keir Starmer has called for a circuit breaker lockdown. SAGE have advised the same and indicated that even the highest tier of restrictions in England and the similar restrictions in Scotland will not bring the R rate down to under one. Has the FM abandoned the elimination/suppression strategy without telling the Scottish public.

    After the Sophie Ridge interview, I'm not sure I'd trust anything the FM says again. "I forgot" "no I didn't forget", she was the cross between a rabbit caught in the headlights and a pickpocket caught red handed. She blinked about a thousand times and displayed every panorama of someone not providing the whole truth.

    None are so blind as those who refuse to see.

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  15. For further context Germany, Norway, New Zealand and South Korea have all managed the pandemic a damn sight better than Scotland has. Comparisons with England only serve to show the lack of ambition, vision and perspective amongst supporters.

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    1. Scotland isn't a country you prize idiot, it's a region of the UK.

      England by contrast is in terms of full sovereign powers.

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    2. What kind of dumb ass makes comparisons like 'Lombardy is doing much better than other countries such as Spain and Brazil!'.

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    3. As a small administrative region of one of the worst affected / most grossly mismanaged countries in the world, Scotland's doing pretty well.

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    4. We'll begin Ski school on R numbers in the near future, but for now it's good to know you're role in life is to assure a constant flow in pipes. I'm assuming they're sewerage pipes because you're very good at assuring a constant flow of shite.

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    5. It was the Lancet that made the comparison.

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    6. Do you have any scientific qualifications or are you just pretending to?

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    7. As long as the qualification is made - Scotland isn't a country (so lacks the full covid control powers of one) - the comparison can be made for academic purposes.

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    8. For example, highlighting how independent countries have done much better than Scotland which isn't independent, but controlled by the UK, is a valid comparison.

      Delete
  16. It appears we're more concerned with suppression of information and opinion than suppression of the virus.

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  17. The Scottish pound is a bit like the Scottish premier league, it may sound the same or similar, but you know it's worth a lot less.

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    1. Hows the £ and it's new " developing nation " status ?

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    2. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history

      Down, down, down is the story of the UK £. It's now worth 36% less than 1983.

      Delete
  18. Fair play to Arlene & co and their IRA chums, they've got some balls (they've probably needed them in the past). 4 week lockdown, why can't Scotgov do the same.

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    1. Do you have any qualifications for making such recommendations, other than your armchair?

      Delete
  19. Wales are at it too.

    Ministers are "planning very seriously" for a circuit breaker lockdown for Wales, the First Minister has said.

    "We're very actively talking about and preparing for that should it be necessary," Mark Drakeford told Sky News.

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    1. You believe governments should take action based on what other governments are doing other countries rather than what their scientific advisors tell them?

      Such views would be explained by a lack of any scientific qualifications.

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    2. SAGE advised Sturgeon in the COBRA meeting that the current restrictions in Scotland would not bring the R value down to below one. Science has no borders and there's no reason governments can't learn off each other.

      Delete
    3. That's nonsensical. You don't do something simply because another country is doing it. You do what you are advised is appropriate for your country. Your decisions should absolutely not be influenced by what others are doing, but only what makes sense in your country.

      The R number in Scotland is falling at the last measurement. And anyway, virus spread can slow even while R rises; it's high school maths.

      UK Furlough is all but over and unemployment is rising rapidly as a result. That is what is the main problem for controlling covid now. I feel really sorry for NI; the UK is particularly abandoning them by ending furlough.

      Delete
  20. Over the past 2 weeks, new covid cases in Scotland remain 20% lower per capita than the UK as a whole.

    New cases detected per day has been on a downward trajectory since a peak on the 7th of October; let's hope that continues. R number is projected to be falling. Likewise.

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    1. Dear god Skier you've been saying the same thing for about three weeks. 1300 cases yesterday.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. There were not 1300 cases detected yesterday. That's a lie or you don't understand the basic. There were 1297 new cases reported yesterday; which were varyingly detected over the 4 preceding days.

      https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

      There was a peak of cases detected on the 7th of October, with the numbers falling since.

      I have not been saying that for 3 weeks. This is another lie. I have said the new case rate acceleration has been slowing. This agrees with the recent projected fall in R. Each fall in new cases, even if not sustained in the longer term, marks a slowing of the overall rate.

      Since you appear to have no qualifications in science, you probably don't understand what that means. I suggest you read up on the concept of rate and how it's possible to e.g. speed up at an increasingly slower pace; which is what happens at first when you put controls on a virus outbreak. First the rate starts to reduce, even though total cases continues to rise.

      Delete
    4. Scottish SkierSeptember 30, 2020 at 3:20 PM
      I'm not sure if you just don't understand the subject at all, or are trying to mislead people.

      The trend in new case rates for the past 5 days is tentatively down, or at least the rate isn't increasing, but is stabilising.

      People should trust public health Scotland on this.

      Their graph:

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/187wFUCt0G60XMmVsv32OsssxqsvXJL9z/view

      From here:

      https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

      Now of course the last point for the 29th will not look as good tomorrow when delayed results are added in (the 30th will appear and be very low), but for now at least the new cases peak was on the 24th. And the data from there up to the 28th is unlikely to see much change; only the 29th as more results come back from the UK labs which are slow.

      % Positive is the same; has been largely stable for 5 days now, maybe even starting to edge down, rather than continuing the upward trend we were discussing.

      The tighter restrictions do seem to be having some effect already, with the exponential that was emerging appearing to have been curtailed in earnest.

      I trust that you hope that the new case rate continues to fall.


      Scottish SkierSeptember 30, 2020 at 4:39 PM
      Here's the % positive data.

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VovtmU643575d1QPvObFPg7p_6GB0KyS/view?usp=sharing

      Edging back down for now. Early days though.

      Delete


    5. Scottish SkierOctober 1, 2020 at 2:22 PM
      Latest Scottish data consistent with this.

      https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

      % positive seems to have stopped rising as of the 24th along with new cases / day. Both a have fallen a little since then, but not enough to say whether it's a real fall, or just a stable pause. But not going up for now, which is the main thing.

      Anyway, fingers crossed. If this continues, then the developing exponential rise has been nipped in the bud.

      Delete


    6. Scottish SkierOctober 1, 2020 at 3:56 PM
      both the cases/day and % positive numbers have stopped increasing; they are lower than a week ago.

      And it's not me suggesting things are maybe looking up with the tightening of restrictions having an effect, but Imperial College in London.

      Delete
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    8. It's all trending down Skier, we're on 1300 cases.

      Delete
    9. And we're at 17.2%, no wonder this keeps disappearing.

      Scottish numbers: 13 October 2020
      Summary
      1,297 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 17.2%* of newly tested individuals
      7 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
      35 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
      527 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19

      Delete
    10. OK Skier peak on the 7th October we'll look at that one in a couple of weeks. I admire your optimism I really do, and you'd make a great spin doctor, but unfortunately this is one we can't spin our way out of, no matter how hard you flip.

      Delete
    11. Scottish SkierSeptember 29, 2020 at 8:16 PM
      Anyway, we're not out of the woods by any means, but there are tentative signs the tightening restrictions may be having the desired effect and starting to temper the recent rise in cases.

      Reply

      Delete
    12. Scottish SkierSeptember 29, 2020 at 7:56 PM
      Not sure what you mean.

      https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

      New positive cases by sampling date:
      Scotland
      715 24th
      568 25th
      410 26th
      340 27th
      105 28th

      Similar pattern UK-wide, which is good news.

      Not sure what you mean.

      Delete
    13. Scottish SkierSeptember 29, 2020 at 8:06 PM
      Sunday's % positive is likely more reliable as it will be for the latest Scottish NHS tests.

      It's the UK programme tests which take ages. The delays here have been all over the papers. Scottish government were idiots to rely on the UK here. How stupid was that.

      From the look of things, probably about 600 of today's reported cases need to be removed, and reallocated to Friday / Saturday / Sunday. That would agree with the above peak on Thursday, with results beginning to filter through 24 hours after testing.

      Similar pattern UK-wide, which is good news.

      The same pattern can be seen in cases reported on day X, albeit we had weekend delays giving the odd effect you mention. Your 806 contains results from as far back as the tail end of last week, which only came back from the lab in the past 24 hours.

      New positive cases by date of test / sampling is the most up to data information and the best way to spot infections rising or falling. It will have some delay too, but you don't get the scatter.

      Today's % positive is also affected as it's not for the past 24 hrs, but based on samples taken last week. So in terms of tests in the past 24 hrs, it's not 11.5%. We should see better tomorrow.

      Delete
  21. Now the poster Skier who goes to great lengths to try and cover up wrongdoings has been at great pains to say that most of the alphabet women are nothing to do with the SNP - 2 out of the 9 were SNP he says - juniors you know like they make coffee - one was only a hand on the knee claim - that sort of thing he claims. His source the Britnat BBC he says.

    Here is another source Quote from McWhirter in the Britnat Herald yesterday:

    "It is important to remember what this inquiry is about. It is not about retrying Alex Salmond- he has been acquitted of the 13 charges of sexual assault and harrassment that were levelled against him, MOSTLY SENIOR FIGURES IN THE SNP.

    My bold to emphasis for the hard of reading (like Skier) that who the alphabet women are have a different take depending on what Britnat source you want to use. Mc Whirter like all these journalists attended the trial.

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    1. My source is the court records, reported widely. 7/9 of the complainers were HM civil service. If they were SNP, we can be sure the BBC would have been at pains to make sure we all knew this.

      If you want, you can provide 'alternative facts'.

      Delete
    2. " MOSTLY SENIOR FIGURES IN THE SNP - according to McWhirter who was at the trial.

      " we can be sure the BBC" - laughable.

      " Alternative facts" - I like many know the truth, as I believe you do, and you are participating in a cover up which makes YOU as guilty as the perpetrators.

      Delete
  22. Even Boris is thinking about it

    The Sun says there is a 60% chance of the PM ordering a mini-lockdown over half-term. It says:

    The PM has so far rejected warnings from his medical advisers that a major reset is required.

    But there is a growing belief in his inner circle that the move is inevitable.

    One close Cabinet colleague said last night there is a 60 per cent chance he will bring in the measure over half-term, which begins for many a week on Friday.

    One place you don't want to be is to the right of Boris Johnson, is that where this government is heading?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As is Holyrood. Do you live in some sort of wee bubble?

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54535171

      What's your point other than the idiocy that a government should immediately do something for the sole reason that another is doing it, even if its inappropriate.

      However, with the UK government making thousands unemployed as we speak, heaven help us if we need a full lockdown. If we were independent we could extend furlough like other indy countries in Europe are doing.

      Delete
  23. And we're at 17.2%, no wonder this keeps disappearing.

    Scottish numbers: 13 October 2020
    Summary
    1,297 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 17.2%* of newly tested individuals
    7 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
    35 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
    527 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19

    ReplyDelete
  24. IPSOS-Mori: Y58 N42 :-)

    Waiting for James to unveil a special headline for this one!

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    1. I bet Sturgeon still bricks it.

      From said poll

      This compares with negative ‘net’ satisfaction ratings for the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross (-17%), Labour’s Richard Leonard (-25%), and the Liberal Democrats’ Willie Rennie (-1%). All three leaders appear to be struggling to cut through to the Scottish public at present – 40% say they do not know whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with Douglas Ross, 38% say the same of Richard Leonard, and 41% do not know how to rate Willie Rennie.

      Richard Leonard like WTF is this clown, Scottish Labour really is a shitshow.

      Keir Starmer is the only party leader other than Nicola Sturgeon to receive a positive net satisfaction rating from the Scottish public (16%). 44% are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as UK Labour Party leader and 27% are dissatisfied, while 29% don’t know.

      Makes the case for UK Labour to take over from Scotlab. Sir Keir would make a great PM. Time to shutdown the shitshow that is Scotlab.

      Delete
    2. Don't equate the Union with Boris

      Three quarters (76%) of Scots are dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as Prime Minister, the lowest ratings Ipsos MORI has ever recorded for him in Scotland. 19% are satisfied with him while 5% don’t know.

      Sir Keir as PM will make a huge difference.

      Delete
    3. "Don't equate the Union with Boris"

      Is this some sort of joke? He's the PM of the UK while Sir starmer has zero power over anything and Scots don't like him; hence Labour polling as low as the Tories.

      Delete
  25. Today's covid figures.

    The peak seen on the 7th October, one week ago, has not been exceeded as yet. Today's higher 'new recorded cases' number contains a significant proportion of results from tests taken over the last 4-5 days, i.e. are not 'new cases' in terms of sampling. Delays in test analysis / reporting means they are just coming out now.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PMpk2KBenTQ07696F0ojCInjfktn_OOL/view?usp=sharing

    Positive samples taken on the 6,7 and 8 October still remain the peak, for now.

    Each 'stalling' like this is good news as it indicates a reduction in the R number and/or transmission time, i.e. cases still rising, but less quickly.

    The % positive data clearly shows a change from exponential to liner increase as of the 26th September, as I mentioned at the time.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1q4hB-fbFmuxrLsaNp76JpCOvET4WT7Do/view?usp=sharing

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  26. Obviously not conducted in the English Colony that is Moray.

    ReplyDelete