Wednesday, October 14, 2020

58% Yes: Writing is on the wall for the United Kingdom as support for indy hits record high in telephone poll

Since the independence referendum in 2014, there's been a general trend that telephone polling has produced better results for Yes than online polling - an exact reversal of what was the case before the referendum.  Unfortunately the recent period of Yes majorities has coincided with a total absence of telephone polls, so although I did wonder aloud a few times whether the differential was continuing and a telephone poll might produce something over and above a Yes vote in the low-to-mid 50s, there was no way of knowing for sure.  Luckily STV have now resumed their long-running series of telephone polls with Ipsos-Mori, and the result is not a disappointment.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Ipsos-Mori, 2nd-9th October 2020)

Yes 58% (+8)
No 42% (-8)

This is almost certainly the biggest lead for independence in any poll from any firm, ever.  It's difficult to find records from the early days of devolution (when TNS polls sometimes showed a Yes lead), but 58% is undoubtedly the highest Yes vote in a published poll since independence became a serious proposition in 2011.  The previous high watermark was 55%.

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NEW CROWDFUNDER: On Saturday I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas.  If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.

73 comments:

  1. bet Sturgeon still bricks it.

    From said poll

    This compares with negative ‘net’ satisfaction ratings for the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross (-17%), Labour’s Richard Leonard (-25%), and the Liberal Democrats’ Willie Rennie (-1%). All three leaders appear to be struggling to cut through to the Scottish public at present – 40% say they do not know whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with Douglas Ross, 38% say the same of Richard Leonard, and 41% do not know how to rate Willie Rennie.

    Richard Leonard like WTF is this clown, Scottish Labour really is a shitshow.

    Keir Starmer is the only party leader other than Nicola Sturgeon to receive a positive net satisfaction rating from the Scottish public (16%). 44% are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as UK Labour Party leader and 27% are dissatisfied, while 29% don’t know.

    Makes the case for UK Labour to take over from Scotlab. Sir Keir would make a great PM. Time to shutdown the shitshow that is Scotlab.

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    1. "Makes the case for UK Labour to take over from Scotlab" sorry but they have ALWAYS been in charge.

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  2. Don't equate the Union with Boris

    Three quarters (76%) of Scots are dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as Prime Minister, the lowest ratings Ipsos MORI has ever recorded for him in Scotland. 19% are satisfied with him while 5% don’t know.

    Sir Keir as PM will make a huge difference.

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    1. But realistically you have to wait at least 3 more years. And look at recent polling for Westminster. No Starmer bounce. You'll have a long wait for PM Keir

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    2. Don't be so sure, if there's a no deal Brexit and the shops stock out, while we're at the height of the pandemic in January, the government could well fall.

      I've always had this image of a fumbling Boris flummoxed while the country all around him is in meltdown, a la his first leadership announcement when he didn't even announce he was running at his press conference coz Gove knifed him or when he got stuck on the zipwire.

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    3. Fumbling rather than fiddling while Rome burns.

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    4. And I'm not sure you've been following the polling Labour have closed a 25 point deficit to just 2 or 3 points since the start of the pandemic.

      Sir Keir gains prominence while Boris reveals his true colours.

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    5. Erm, that's in England.

      Scots back independence and remaining in the EU. Only parties which support that position will make inroads here, hence Labour doing so badly.

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    6. "Don't equate the Union with Boris"

      Are you off your trolley? He's PM of the union. He is the union.

      Don't equate thatcher with the union! Don't equate Blair and his illegal wars with the union! Don't equate broon and his 2008/9 bust with the union! Don't equate brexit with the union even though it starts with a Br...

      You are delusional. Of course Scots equate london rule with the union; it is the union.

      They might think Starmer is a bit better than Boris, but they don't want him in charge either.

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    7. "Don't equate the union with Boris" never have. I equate the union with colonialism and wars.

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    8. People in Scotland equate the union with... Thatcher, Major, Blair, Broon, Cameron/Clegg, May, Johnson...

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  3. starting to think getting to 60% is not "impossible". anything sutained over 55% is really difficult for UK government.

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    1. I use to discount the chance of 60%. Not now.

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    2. whenever 60% is "impossible" we should give up. No normal country would have less than that support for it's sovereignty. Independence will come when it's the perceived norm and it might not be a quick process. But getting to a point of around 60% is where we should be aiming to make any wildcat vote beyond doubt if needed.

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    3. Ross - no such thing as a wildcat vote when asking the people of Scotland to choose its government. You have been listening to too much Britnat propaganda.

      51.9% UK vote was enough for us to be taken out of the EU against our will. But some Scots seem to think we must get 60% in the polls - Cringe I think.

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  4. Obviously this is fantastic news. Especially given the current media campaign against all things SNP or Indy.

    A few at the outer fringes of the Wider YES movement have been very vocal in their opposition to Nicola Sturgeon and believe we'd be better placed without her. No doubt this will continue but I have always been of a mind that once a Nation comes to a settled will on something it tends to happen.

    Independence seems to now be the will of the people. I have a feeling things may move faster than any of us expect.

    Alastair

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    1. Alastair, the poll is obviously great news. The trouble is Sturgeon is compromised. GHQ/Britnat secret service will know all about what she has been up to. If she stays in place I would not want Sturgeon negotiating our independence with Westminster. Also think of the crap job they did negotiating the Smith Commission.

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    2. What nonsense - "compromised" - grow up ffs.

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    3. AMC - what a brilliant piece of prose. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Is that the best you can do.🤡🤡🤡🤡

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    4. Curious to know who you would prefer to the "compromised" Sturgeon to negotiate our independence.

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    5. John Silver - someone who actually wants independence.

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    6. There's not much to say is there IoS. If you're stupid enough to believe that the "GHO/Britnat Secret Service" have something on Sturgeon, I'm guessing you're about 12 years old and, as such, entitled to have a childish view.

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  5. And this is before Brexshit happens

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. You should delete the rest of your comments too.

      Clutching at straws, totally delusional head in the sand stuff. We have had enough. On independence we may offer a Free Trade Agreement, one that would give rUK the "best of both worlds" just think you'll be able to "have your cake and eat it too" as it will be "oven ready".

      Go home, we are not listening anymore.

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  7. If Nicola Sturgeon is working for GCHQ/Britnat secret service then she is clearly pretty crap at the job. If she doesn't want Independence then she had better start proving it and get these polls moving in the opposite direction. She's starting to look like a double agent!

    If she fails to get support down then she has to go.

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  8. The future of unionism could well be to appeal to those with a centre left or socialist perspective that their interests are best served within and are more aligned to the union.

    This may involve UK Labour allowing the rancid moribund detritus corpse that is Scottish Labour to die. There's a stench coming off Scottish Labour and it's best put out of it's misery.

    With the competent leadership of Keir Starmer and the policies of the Corbyn era socialism and social democracy can have a new lease of life. Sir Keir as PM could co-opt the SNP and offer ministerial positions to SNP MP's even the great offices of state. The UK and Scottish governments could work as one to deliver the radical socialist agenda that Scotland needs. An investment led economy that delivers for all and cares for all.

    If the UK secures a Brexit deal, and then secures a number of trade agreements, without restrictions on state aid, the UK could become the investment led, dynamic, agile, growth economy that leads the world in recovering from the pandemic.

    What's the alternative, entrusting socialism in an independent Scotland to the incompetent moribund rabble that is Scottish Labour.

    Out of Europe and not a party to the newly formed UK trade agreements on terms an independent Scotland could never get. Contemplating joining the sluggish Eurozone and giving up fishing rights, and a membership that's not even guaranteed.

    When the SNP unravels and the tartan tories emerge from their parapets to head to their true home, Scotland will in all likelihood be veering to the right, Conservatism will not be seen as an English only preserve or English nationalism. There will be no hangover from a perceived attachment to the legacy of the Thatcher years.

    High levels of national debt from the financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic will also mean austerity is the order of the day until Scotland develops an independent credit rating, which only comes with fiscal responsibility.

    You can't feed families with flags, the SNP and Sir Keir together are in a prime position to deliver the radical transformational manifesto this country needs, if you're left leaning let's not waste this opportunity.

    As we emerge from this pandemic it's very much united we stand, and divided we fall.

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    1. That ship sailed a long long time ago. Labour is dead in Scotland and will not be resurected.

      That latest poll puts the SNP on 58% for the constituency vote, Labour in Scotland 13%. There is no coming back for Labour, Scottish voters have already made up their minds.

      We will be making our own decisions with politicians elected in Scotland by the people of Scotland, Scots no longer want a parliament in a different country making their choices for them.

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    2. You've completely missed the point, I'm suggesting allowing Scotlab to die, the only way Scottish Labour comes back is with independence.

      More powers for Scotland could be included with a deal. There's also more freedom to roam and to live within the rest of the UK. The SNP could be at the Westminster top table along with Sir Keir utilising the UK's global trade network and borrowing capacity to deliver for Scotland on a scale they never could in an independent Scotland.

      The question is, who do you want running Scotland the SNP and Sir Keir or the choice of Scotlab or Scot Tories, one is incompetent and the other right wing.

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    3. Anyone called 'Sir' anything has got no chance in Scotland. It reeks of establishment. Imagine if he had had the integrity to turn down this 'honour'?

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  9. It may also be harder to travel to Blackpool on independence.

    Nicola Sturgeon is asking Scots not to travel to Blackpool, revealing at her daily briefing that the popular seaside town is being mentioned in test and protect tracing “far more than any other location outside Scotland”.

    She said that in the last month around 180 people diagnosed with Covid had reported that they had recently visited in Blackpool.

    Acknowledging that trips to Blackpool are “an annual ritual” for many Scots, Sturgeon said that a separate incident management team had been set up to deal specifically with Blackpool-related infections.

    She said people who were still planning a trip there should not go, and that people who had already booked holidays to Blackpool should be extremely cautious when they travelled and told football fans directly: “Do not travel to Blackpool this weekend to watch the Old Firm match in a pub. If you do that you will be putting yourself and other people at risk.”

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  10. I honestly did not think it was possible for support to get that high without a campaign. But I also did not allow for a pandemic.

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    1. It's not the pandemic, not directly.

      The refusal of the Section 30 tipped the balance - probably forever - and brexit + the pandemic are making the public feel things are out of their hands, so they want to take back control.

      The 2008/9 financial crisis had the effect of catapulting the SNP to power along similar lines.

      So it's not really about SNP competence; as long as they are trying their best with genuinely good intentions (i.e. the opposite of Bozo's Tories) voters will want Holyrood to take control as that's how they can.

      People appreciate the difficulty of the situation so are not going to punish the SNP if they are really trying their best. What they will punish is e.g. Bozo cancelling furlough so he can keep taxes low for him and his wealthy mates...pushing ahead with illegal brexit while the economy is in the pandemic shit...trashing devolution so England can get the trade deals that benefit it alone...

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    2. I don't think it is directly the pandemic, but it let people see right in front of them on a day to day basis how a Scottish government can handle a serious emergency and make a better fist of it than Westminster. I do think that has opened some eyes.

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  11. You'd think that with Yes now hitting 58%, unionists might be clever enough to realise that sick trolling isn't the key to winning hearts and minds.

    If there are any decent unionists out there; you need to shut up the trolls on your side before they cost you the union.

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    1. I don't think they can help themselves. Underlying Unionism is a deep-seated belief that Scotland is intrinsically inferior and incapable of governing itself.

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  12. English/British nationalist brexit still to officially happen. English/British nationalist arrogance and ignorance towards Scotland shows no sign of abating. Scotland will be dragged out of the EU, against Scotland's wishes, and thus support for Scotland's independence will increase. The so=called united kingdom will die because of English/British nationalism. You've got to laugh.

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  13. James, what is the current thinking regarding whether telephone polling or online polling is more accurate?

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  14. Thankgod we have the FM Ally

    England, Wales and Scotland among worst countries for excess deaths during pandemic, report says
    An international study led by academics from Imperial College London has concluded that, out of 21 industrialised countries, England, Wales and Scotland had among the highest rates of excess deaths between February and May, during the first wave of the pandemic.

    The study looked at excess deaths from all causes, not just deaths attributed to coronavirus. This measure is seen by experts as the best way of assessing the overall impact of a pandemic because it includes caused by the virus, but not attributed to it, and deaths caused by it indirectly.

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    1. I read the article you refer to and if Scotland was Independent at the time the FM would have acted quicker on advice from Scottish scientific advisory committee.
      But of course you Britnats are in denial that Independence is coming aided and abetted by the PM under the stage name of Boris Johnson . A big round of applause for the PM.
      Ally

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  15. For over 3 years now I have been told that Nicola Sturgeon does'nt just want to hold a referendum but win it. Well thank goodness for that I would reply not much kop if she wants to lose is it.

    So I was told to believe in our Nic she will deliver - she has a secret plan and will activate it when the time is right. I would ask in reply when will the time be right. Only Nicola will know but likely to be when the polls are between 55 to 60%.

    Is this not the right time? We have already lost our EU citizenship, we cannot protect our economy from Johnsons lack of funds re Covid and a no deal Brexit beckons. Our similar sized independent neighbours Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Denmark are all in the top 10 GDP per head whilst we hope the bampot Johnson will throw us some more crumbs. We have the resources to be in the top 5 GDP per head as an independent country because for one reason we won't be getting ripped off by Westminster.

    Personally, I don't believe Sturgeon has a secret plan in her handbag. I believe her handbag contains a book of excuses to avoid a referendum along with the knife that stabbed Salmond in the back.

    But happy to be proved wrong about the book of excuses if she actually gets on with delivering what the people of Scotland desperately want - independence. The knife, of course, is fact.

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    1. Support for indy was in minority until Bozo said no to the Section 30. His refusal put Yes into majority, probably for good.

      Only unionists argue that Sturgeon shouldn't have asked for one, for that reason.

      Wise heads said asking for a section 30 was key, and that Yes could become the majority position due to wider events; a campaign would not do it so soon after 2014. They were right while English blogsites were wrong.

      A vote held prior to Feb 2020 would have likely been lost, as per polls. A campaign would have made no difference, as the polls show. Events are driving things.

      We have covid now and just 7 months or so of a parliamentary term to run.

      In May, I suggest people vote for Yes parties that already hold seats and not those on <1% of the vote.

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    2. Skier - is that post a straight copy from Sturgeons book of excuses or did you add a few bits? As such a great expert Skier when can we expect to be independent and does Sturgeon have a master plan ready to fire into action?

      There are two common statements in Scottish politics:

      1. Britnats always say the oil and gas will run out in a few years.

      2. Gradualists who support Sturgeon say independence will happen in a few years.

      Been hearing both for far too long and both piss me off.

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    3. Salmond was the most famous gradualist.

      He was right too. Respect.

      58% Yes now.

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    4. Now now don't be negative -say it - I know you want to - independence is just around the corner in the next few years.

      Of course, ultimately in the gradualist world in the next few years we are all deid.

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  16. The SNP are just getting their feet under the table at WM. Once they're part of the WM government you won't see a referendum for dust.

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  17. I feel sorry for naive souls like you IFS being led up the garden path with the carrot of a referendum by a bunch of careerist opportunists whose sole aim now is to replace one form establishment with another. Lets put people before profit.

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  18. Be careful though IFS, the Britnat secret service and GCHQ maybe monitoring your every move.

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  19. Independence for ScotlandOctober 14, 2020 at 8:17 PM
    "Don't equate the union with Boris" never have. I equate the union with colonialism and wars.

    Let's hope independence will save you from all the colonising and wars of the next few years.

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  20. Why do people always frame independence as Scottish people vs English people. Isn't it Scottish independence people against. Scottish Unionist people

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    1. Unionists frame it that way so they can shout 'Racist anti-English'. It's the BBC etc that constantly compare Scotland with the RUK; if Scotland was independent, this wouldn't happen.

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  21. UDI election.
    If I was a Scottish Unionist I wouldn't even get up off the couch on voting day and the next day I would shout out loud. legitimate vote

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  22. Let's be clear now, a General Election in an independent Scotland would give you the options of Richard Leonard, Douglas Ross or Willie Rennie as your choice of PM.

    Anybody with any wild fantasies about a post indy, lasting SNP administration need only look at UKIP or the Brexit party post EU referendum and Westminster approval of a deal or Irish independence/free state parties as precedents.

    If you want the policies and personalities of Keir and NS then a Labour/SNP, UK/Scotgov administration is the only option that makes any sense.

    There's no doubt, even despite his electoral defeat, Corbyn has moved the 'Overton window' more than any leader since Thatcher.

    The UK is now ready and willing to accept a whole raft of policies unthinkable even a decade ago. We now have the leaders competent enough to deliver them and a public openly ready to engage with them and receive them. We are on the cusp of change, monumental change, don't throw it away.

    Keir Starmer, Labour and the UK people will be the beneficiaries, let that include Scotland, the Scottish people and the SNP too.

    Don't gift Scotland to Richard and Douglas or their acolytes, or an unknown right wing insurgency buoyed by liberation from Thatcher and the revolutionary rise of the ex SNP tartan tories as they dispose of, and discard their feigned acceptance of the social democratic party line.

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    1. I can smell your desperation, you really whiff hahaha

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    2. Does this 'monumental change' involve staying in the EU and Scottish indy? If not, it's unlikely to be popular with the Scottish electorate, who in significant majority back both of these things.

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    3. Thepnr - what on earth happened to you - you used to post interesting informative comments. Did the SNP throw you under a bus as well.

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    4. Poppy despite the fact that your proposal is delusional I salute you for one thing:

      You are discussing politics in a future independent Scotland. You are assuming what a lot of us believe, that independence is a matter not of whether, but merely of when.

      And refreshingly you are discussing what happens next. What a great thing, we are looking at post indy politics! I wish more people could do what you have done, which is to set out a vision of what we do when we get independence.

      It has always been true that the SNP when it achieves its aim will get smaller as independence minded Labour, Liberal, even Conservative, voters will split off to form the Scottish version of their preferred party. Scottish Greens like me will already be in their preferred party which is already autonomously Scottish, but some SNP will join us.

      Unlike UKIP and the Brexit Party the SNP has a comprehensive range of good policies and has already demonstrated very competent government. It will not disappear and may very likely win the first election, which is where your projection is delusional.

      But genuine kudos to you for opening up post indy politics.

      There will be other parties too so lots to choose from in the first Independent Parliamentary elections.

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    5. Topher, I salute you, you are a Scottish Green and your politics will remain unadmonished and unabated pre or post indy, you say what you say, and you believe what you believe.

      Unlike the tartan tories you believe your constitutional, political and ideological aims are aligned.

      OK, Yes the SNP would win the first election were it in a short enough period after indy. What we're trying to highlight is what happens next, be it post indy, or post the first election after indy, the SNP will unravel.

      I know Corbynism, momentum and a 'new approach' from Labour has gained traction with your sister and brother parties and movements in the Green parties of England and Wales.

      Do you entrust (in the medium to long term) your values, ethics and beliefs with Keir, Corbynism, an SNP/Green alliance at Holyrood and a Labour/SNP UK administration or Douglas Ross, the tartan tories and Scottish Labour.

      The Green movement has gained a huge amount from its support of independence, but it's goal is independence for a purpose and it's, surely you'll agree, the purpose that must come first.

      The Scottish Green party is now in a political position, through its constitutional stance, to achieve concessions and push through policies it may never again in the foreseeable future.

      Surely, it's lives and environments that matter, not borders and flags.

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  23. The Britnat prof Sir John Poultice on the telly tonight playing down the new 58% figure.

    He also says that the increase ( which he played down earlier) was down to Sturgeons personal rating re covid 19 but says "despite the fact Scotlands actual record is not much better than Englands".

    So word seems to have gone out to all the Britnats to say Sturgeon has not actually done any better re outcomes for covid but has just been on the telly a lot. I have heard this said by a number of people in the media recently and it is blatantly false. Scotlands outcomes have been better since the beginning and continue to be.

    Poultice got his knighthood for being on the British state message and wants to keep picking up his TV appearance fees.

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    1. I've made this point before, but Curtice is bang on in terms of records of the respective governments. Whether the surreal, parallel universe version of Covid-19 as perceived by the Scottish public watching 'Sturgeon TV' will ever come back to bite her, or haunt her, who knows. Maybe she'll "forget", or "not forget" something in earnest when questioned.

      It's mainly pensioners that will watch this type of thing, and 'Yes' are now on 40% with the over 65's, in this current poll so maybe it's cutting through. Cynics would suggest that verbose obfuscation for party political purposes is not an appropriate use of a government's resources. But the neverending droll has seemingly become a source of succour and sustenance for many in these hardest of times.

      I hope when all is said and done on this pandemic, political allegiances aside, that Scotland's outcomes are better, and not just better than England's, but others also. But I fear this whole episode has been manipulated and used as a platform and a spectacle to allow an assiduous and insidious trojan horse to enter the fray, for a power grab by Her that is of show and tell.

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    2. Yep - verbose obfuscation - pretty much your norm. Not interested - usually scroll past your posts. Away and bother Skier he likes that sort of thing.

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    3. If someone thinks the current Yes support is directly related to the pandemic, they don't understand things at all.

      The S30 refusal is far more important for example. It made the Yes majority. The more Johnson resists, the stronger the Yes. This is blindingly obvious stuff.

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    4. There, there Ifs, sorry to trouble your intelligence or lack of it, maybe now you can go back to dreaming about the CIA, MI5 and your Sturgeon natplot. Does James Bond save the day, the Sean Connery version of course. Apparently another Scot is being touted as Bond, although might all go tits up on indy.

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    5. Skier, dear chap, there was a previous S30 refusal after the EU referendum result and a weird retraction of it from NS prior to GE 2017, a bit like the I "forgot" no, "I didn't forget" but yet the refusal made no difference to polling unlike the aftermath of the referendum result.

      You've got to accept it's all about the pandemic Skier, I predicted this on this blog in February. As reports of the UK family coming together again were awash I eschewed any notion of traction for the union.

      My words to the great sages and scribes of the unionist press and literary world were. "The great unifyer may ultimately prove to be the great divider."

      And so it has come to pass but many open, honest, detailed and delicate exchanges need to be made. This is not Brexit, this is friends, family and freedom. The freedom to roam and live throughout the UK vis a vis the feeling of lack of freedom and autonomy for those that reside and foresee they will only reside in Scotland. Although both subject to political judgement and the rule of law.

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  24. McCallums the name. Ken McCallum and ma burd is FM of Scotland. Don't mess with me I can pull a funny face.

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  25. People have been Knocking SNP and Mistress Nicky for waiting. Now we see why. Brexit finishing a once in lifetime event. Ten years after Indy vote after Brexit bypasses the " once in a generation " bit.

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  26. So why has there never been a Scotgov enquiry into who has been leaking to the Daily Recoat? Who tipped them off in the first place about the Salmond allegations and then provided all the sordid lies for its Britnat Labour readers to salivate over.

    If you are a betting type and can get a bet on such a thing my tip would be Liz Lloyd, Sturgeons Chief of Staff who just happens to be a long term pal of ex Political Editor of the Daily Redcoat, Britnat David Clegg from Norn Ireland ( I'm sure his father did wear a sash). Funny friend for someone close to the heart of the SNP/Scotgov. Anyway, if after 3 years the Scotgov is not going to investigate I might as well speculate.

    I'm sure Skier will be along soon to say it was the tea lady.

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