Since the independence referendum in 2014, there's been a general trend that telephone polling has produced better results for Yes than online polling - an exact reversal of what was the case before the referendum. Unfortunately the recent period of Yes majorities has coincided with a total absence of telephone polls, so although I did wonder aloud a few times whether the differential was continuing and a telephone poll might produce something over and above a Yes vote in the low-to-mid 50s, there was no way of knowing for sure. Luckily STV have now resumed their long-running series of telephone polls with Ipsos-Mori, and the result is not a disappointment.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
58% Yes: Writing is on the wall for the United Kingdom as support for indy hits record high in telephone poll
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Ipsos-Mori, 2nd-9th October 2020)
Yes 58% (+8)
No 42% (-8)
This is almost certainly the biggest lead for independence in any poll from any firm, ever. It's difficult to find records from the early days of devolution (when TNS polls sometimes showed a Yes lead), but 58% is undoubtedly the highest Yes vote in a published poll since independence became a serious proposition in 2011. The previous high watermark was 55%.
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NEW CROWDFUNDER: On Saturday I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas. If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.
Posted by James Kelly at 1:02 PM