Tuesday, May 5, 2020

This is truly remarkable: in the middle of the biggest international crisis since World War II, support for independence has just INCREASED to 50%

I was reasonably encouraged in late March when a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times suggested that support for independence had only slipped from 52% to 49%.  I would have expected a bigger drop in a time of crisis when voters are concentrating on managing from day to day, and when big constitutional projects might seem like a luxury.  However, late March was fairly early in the epidemic, and I still thought the Yes vote would drift further downwards - and actually I wasn't overly concerned by that prospect, because past experience suggests that shifts in public opinion during a crisis are not a reliable guide to what will happen when things get back to normal.  But, as it turns out, I was wrong anyway.  A new Panelbase poll suggests Yes support has nudged back up.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Panelbase, 1st-5th May 2020):

Yes 50% (+1)
No 50% (-1)

This is the Panelbase poll that I heard was in the field a few days ago.  I initially suspected it had once again been commissioned by the Sunday Times, because Panelbase's other frequent Scottish client is Wings Over Scotland, and the questions that I'd been told about didn't sound very 'Wings-like'.  But then someone mentioned that there were also lots of oddly-worded questions about the trans issue, and at that point it became clear it had to be a Wings poll!  Stuart seems to be underwhelmed by the independence results, but I think he's losing his sense of perspective somewhat due to his disillusionment with the SNP leadership and his "something needs to change" narrative.  In truth, this is one of the best ever Panelbase polls for Yes.  There have only been a tiny handful of occasions when Panelbase have reported Yes in the lead or level-pegging.  In recent times, they had become one of the more No-friendly firms and repeatedly showed Yes stuck in the 43-45% range.  To now be at 50%, and particularly in these unpromising circumstances, should be regarded as an exceptionally good result in my opinion.

That said, virtually all polling firms have changed their methodology recently to bring in weighting by recalled 2019 vote, and given that the SNP did well in the general election, that may be boosting the reported Yes vote.  So post-election and pre-election polls are not directly comparable, and it may well be that 50% in a Panelbase poll now is the rough equivalent of 48% or 49% before the election.  But in a sense that doesn't really matter, because the new weightings are likely to produce more accurate results anyway.  It's entirely possible that we were slightly underestimating support for independence during 2018 and 2019.

Why would the popularity of independence be so resilient during the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu of 1918-20?  I can only guess, but the perception that the Scottish government is handling the crisis more competently than the UK government may be a significant factor.

34 comments:

  1. Can those who voted yes in 2014 and leave in 2016 be won back?

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    1. The Union will plod on and the EU corrupt Mafia will die as it deserves.

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    2. The UK government has made it clear that they're willing to literally manslaughter the population of the UK as a whole to line their own pockets. Sure, most of us knew this already. But even the most rabid anti-EU Scot has to admit that no Brussels bureaucrat has such a notion. So, yes. One would hope that no matter how vehemently one dislikes the EU, one would recognise that Scottish independence is a necessity, rather than a luxury.

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    3. Yes - with a promise of a referendum on whether Scotland should start negotiations to become a full EU member. Probably a two-round referendum with three options - full membership, Norway-style relationship or England-style relationship should happen shortly after independence together with the referendum whether we should remain a monarchy or become a republic. It should in the end make everyone happy - whatever the end result will be.

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    4. Yes-Leavers would be stupid to forget the way in which they were frozen out of SNP policies and representation. Never mind anglo-by-choice anti-nationalist Campbell and his SNP sub-sect List Party, what I'd really like to see is some real nationalists go head-to-head with the SNP in various seats north of the Tay. I think we could give them a bloody nose in some places. (The analogy is with February 1974 when SNP successes in various 'outlying areas' sent the Overt Unionist parties scurrying to come up with some measure of Home Rule.)

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  2. Something to do with WM being responsible for the worst death rate in Europe. People know what is going on, despite the media.

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  3. I think this poll, and the recent Yougov, warrants a new indy list party.

    I'm gonnae call it the 'Jings Party' and recruit candidates from this blog for the purpose.

    Who's with me?

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    1. You have been sneekin ahead since 2014 yet you are not ahead. When the jockos know the bill for paying back the lenders they will be pragmatic.

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    2. Covidia is an obedient colonial bootlick. It will be in the fields this summer, whether it wants to be or not.

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  4. Wings Stuart Campbell was probably rather hoping support would be down for Independence giving him the excuse to moan about the SNP
    so he spins it around as this is the chance for a referendum and the SNP refuse it

    There's talking about Independence forever and hoping never to get it so you can keep talking and complaining about it, and there's winning a referendum when the FM decides, not just to hold one for the sake of a 50/50 chance but holding it to win it

    Campbell is notorious for getting people fighting like rats in a sack over a no change spun the way he wants it

    The thing about this poll is it's meaningless because no one would thank any government who undertook an Independence campaign right at this moment because it would look like the FM wasn't concentrating on the Covid crisis and Voldemort Campbell knows it


    he's just winding folk up again, every member of the SNP knows next year is when it'll happen with the groundwork beginning as soon as this crisis is over

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    1. "and there's winning a referendum when the FM decides, not just to hold one for the sake of a 50/50 chance but holding it to win it"

      That sounds dangerously close to the "don't hold a referendum until you're sure you'll win" argument - which means never hold a referendum, and never become independent.

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  5. Yeh maybe we could pay for it with the money uk gov pinched from Scotland’s oil in the past years , maybe we will get a refund for the illegal poll tax that was brought in a year ahead in Scotland than England, perhaps we could pay for with the falsified GERS. We do not need to worry about scammers asking for money.

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    Replies
    1. The poll tax was not illegal just unfair. And it was UK oil. You would not have whinged if the oil was discovered in the English Chanel. Some Jocks just like taking and not giving.

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    2. "Some Jocks just like taking and not giving"

      That would be unionist jocks, obviously. Independence supporting jocks want to stand on their own two feet. Also to chip into the EU pot for example.

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    3. Why did the English regard it as 'UK oil', but not 'EU oil' out of interest?

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    4. You would have to ask the English. I have no interest in the EU however the oil was discovered during EEC dominance.

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    5. Avoiding the question. Covidia provides much the same evasiveness as its Tory overlords.

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  6. ''Stuart seems to be underwhelmed by the independence results.''

    He will be overwhelmed by the fact that his plan, scuppering independence altogether, isn't working. Nor is his ineffective site that he's deliberately transformed into a BritNat haven. His days are numbered now with so many people seeing right through him and his devious agenda.

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    Replies
    1. He should be hung and his baws cut aff in public view.

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    2. Covidia advocates a return to capital punishment and torture.

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    3. Covidia is doing the masterclass in pogglewash. She'd be better chatting to Mrs Jenny Shah-Fitch about how to remove stickers from car windows. Just don't do the previews. Hahahaha.

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    4. Indeed. Covidia will already be well practiced in removing those stickers by tongue.

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  7. I think that the people who continue to drop comments on Stuart Campbless' ex-blog are a fair indication of the voices that he didn't ban, and so an indication of what he is into, as if anyone cares. I mean - its Scottisho grosso for people that sound like they have mental healthy problems relating to reality.

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    Replies
    1. Reality is not on any Scottish Nat si mindset. They just make it up on the hoof and hope no one will notice.

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    2. Covidia is terminally confused. Making it up on the hoof is the basis of formulation of policy by its beloved Tory overlords.

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  8. GWC and Anonymous a couple of Britnat turds chewing the crap in the sewer. What a lovely couple they make.

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  9. The poll figures are positive however I do agree with Rev Stu. There are things that could (and should) have been done by the SNP in both its dealings with Westminster and in reaction to the Corona virus. At best, they are trying to be reasonable with unreasonable people, and that never works.

    I do like Nicola Sturgeon, but I think having someone more ruthless would be better for gaining independence. I cannot see why Westminster will ever agree to another referendum using the current approach, and I can understand the logic that the healthy salaries and perks may be why the 'ask nicely again' strategy is being used.

    I think competition can be a good thing. The Labour party lost its way because it knew that left wing voters had nowhere else to go. But whilst a second socialist party would be a disaster at Westminster (due to the voting system) our Parliament is very different. Having three strong pro-independence parties (SNP, Greens and Wings) would counter the British nationalist parties. It also means that those who oppose the current trans legislation can express that view without voting Tory.

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    1. There has never been any socialist party in power in Westminster. There are no socialist parties in any of the fringe UK Governments. They are all Capitalist.

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    2. I appreciate that point. I was thinking more about the Labour party before they were first elected. It had a good principle. That principle has been lost and an alternative was required to prevent that.

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    3. Beira Nevis - " trying to be reasonable with unreasonable people" - that is what you have just done with GWC. Someone said it never works. I agree.

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  10. The thing is that Sturgeon isn't doing anything about Independence, but what she is doing is openly tackling the crisis. She's making friends amongst people who couldn't stand her before and were NO voters to boot. They've at least moved to undecided first, and with a sample size over 1,000 presumably, there's 10% of more undecided. Ready to move to YES.

    Meanwhile the SNP vote is also well up, 54% for Holyrood, 68 seats which is 63 constituency, 5 on the list, making any splitting party very dangerous from the point of view of that ideal overall single party majority Government.

    Hence why the Wings blogger is so sour about the poll, and more interested in a meaningless twitter poll on his underread twitter feed (11.1K followers compared to 5 times as many for the old Wings one).

    It looks like the end of the road for the Wings party, as it would be embarrassing, even more so probably than RISE was. I daresay Sillars would vote for it!

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  11. It'll depend on what the SNP campaign includes for the next Scottish election. If there's no roadmap other than 'vote for us and we'll ask Westminster for a referendum' ?.. then another party offering something a bit more radical in terms of really going for it regardless of Westminster will be attractive to many. We'll have to wait to see what the SNP do I guess. And I also suspect thats what Stu Campbell is waiting for as will.

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