Apologies for the uncharacteristically negative headline, but I couldn't resist. It was perhaps inevitable that with five Scottish by-elections taking place in the space of a week, one would prove to be less wonderful for the SNP than the other four. However, this isn't as bad a result as it looks, for reasons I shall explain in a moment.
Keith & Cullen by-election result (Moray Council):
Conservatives 41.5% (+8.8)
SNP 38.1% (-1.6)
Independent - Rob Barsby 12.7% (+3.1)
Liberal Democrats 7.7% (n/a)
The sizeable increase in the Tory vote should be taken with a pinch of salt, because the overall vote for independent candidates dropped sharply from around 28% to 13%. Moray is one of the parts of Scotland where the independent vote is often pretty much interchangeable with the Tory vote, so in theory that could explain the entire Tory increase. However, there's no equivalent alibi for the slight fall in SNP support, and this is obviously a sub-optimal result given that Moray is one of the Tory seats that the SNP are targeting in the general election.
On the other hand, it's dangerous to extrapolate from a low-turnout (34%) local by-election result to a general election - it may be that SNP supporters in Moray will be far more motivated to turn out for the latter. It should also be remembered that Moray is one of the most Brexit-friendly constituencies in the whole of Scotland, so even if the Tories do cling on to it, that doesn't necessarily mean the SNP won't gain other Tory seats where the conditions are far more favourable. For example, East Renfrewshire and Stirling both had very high Remain votes in 2016.
* * *
I have two more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's Falkirk and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.
* * *
Click here for a handy list of SNP election crowdfunders.
Just got another leaflet from Masterton, East Renfrewshire. Once again not a single mention of the EU or Brexit. In this particular Toryworld the only thing that is happening is Indyref2 and a vote for him will stop Indyref2. Funny that since his boss Johnson says it's never going to happen. Has the message not got to Masterton or, as is more likely, Johnson is lying again.
ReplyDeleteThe 34% turnout in the by-election surely provides a big enough sample of the Moray Constituencies to make some comparisons. DRoss won Moray in 2017 with an 8.7% margin over SNP. Yesterday's by-election showed the gap at 3.4%. A sample size of 2750 is more than that associated with Scottish or even UK wide polls, So, some solace must be taken. We are on the right track
ReplyDelete"DRoss won Moray in 2017 with an 8.7% margin over SNP. Yesterday's by-election showed the gap at 3.4%"
DeleteBut that's a bogus comparison, unless there's some reason to believe that Keith & Cullen is precisely representative of the entire constituency.
The point I was making about turnout is simply that 34% is much lower than the turnout is likely to be in the general election, so there's potential scope for differential turnout to work in a slightly different way.
I think the fact that the SNP vote share overall these past 2 Thursday's is up in these low turnout by-elections is good. It show's motivation. Lower turnout elections tend to skew older. The Greens too where they stand are taking sizable votes with their second preferences being SNP heavy. Indeed the Tories are finding it hard to pick up transfers; Labour voters too aren't showing signs of a heavy lending of votes to the Tories.
DeleteThe Moray result suggests the Tories will be hard to beat; no surprises there. The Aberdeen result, given the Greens aren't standing suggests the Tories could be ousted in Aberdeen South. Results like that bode well for the SNP in less rural Tory held seat closer to the central belt.
All we need now are polls.
James, I do accept what you are saying. What I was getting at was, as a Moravian, I was bitterly disappointed with the result and what cheered me up a bit was the comparison between the 2017 GE and the by-election which, as I pointed out, showed a closing of the gap between the Tories & the SNP. I know that there is no statistical reason to believe my calculation proved any such thing, but ... it does provide something to grasp on to, to provide the hope that what we are doing has a chance of a positive outcome.
DeleteIn your preview of the South of Scotland constituencies are you accounting for the fact the inhabitants of those areas only receive english TV?
ReplyDeleteWhich means that they escape the worst propaganda from Plantation Quay but are also being kept in deliberate ignorance of political reality in their own country.
They do receive BBC Scotland. It's only STV they don't get. They have an abomination called "ITV Border" instead.
DeleteIn local elections personalty is more of a factor than for national elections.
ReplyDeleteLower turnout (34% vs 46% last time) apparently hitting SNP vote harder?
ReplyDeleteVotes for all 5 by-elections since 14th November
ReplyDeleteSNP 40
CON 26
LD 12
LAB 10
GRN 5
IND 6
Labour and the Greens stood in all wards except Keith.
Disappointing, but there always has been a strong Tory vote in Moray, supported by the forces and ex-forces portion of the population, and now thete is also those in and associated with the fishing industry, who think that Brexit will give them exclusive use of the fishing grounds.
ReplyDeleteIs your statement regarding the decline in the vote for the Independent candidate correct?
ReplyDeleteIs that question directed at me? If so, I didn't make any statement about a decline in the vote for the independent candidate. I did, however, make an accurate statement about a drop in the vote across the board for independent candidates (note the plural). As stated in the blogpost, it fell from 28% to 13%.
DeleteSocialism is certainly dead in Moray. 4 right wing candidates.
ReplyDeleteElectoral calculus has unionists / brexiters losing their (FPTP) majority in NI.
ReplyDeleteRemain / pro-reunification + neutral to win a stunning landslide with ~6/10 votes and 56% of seats.
If that happened, the only options is the original full backstop with NI remaining fully in the EU. In terms of the GFA, we'd also be looking at a referendum on reunification. Unionists would have lost there majority at every level in the province.
We truly are in the last days of Rome.
In reality the NI Assembly which is not sitting have to vote for for a referendum. All the Unionists have to do is Boycott a resumed Assembly and play the Sinn Fein IRA game. The UK also have to authorise a referendum.
DeleteIf unionists boycott a referendum, it would just mean a much bigger victory for reunification. Boycotting a free and fair vote is just plain dumb as fuck. You can only sensibly boycott illegal votes.
DeleteThe UK won't get any trade deals with anyone if it didn't authorise a referendum under the terms of the GFA. You've seen this with the backstop.
If Boris gets his majority, the EU and US will immediately seek the full backstop again. The EU only agreed to a slightly modified one in the hope of getting it through parliament. Of course if the deal had passed, the full backstop would have been immediately implemented with the DUP unable to do anything to stop that. Which is what we can expect for an English Tory win; the original backstop will be back immediately as there'll be no need for DUP votes.
I told you the English would sell you out. They have, and they will continue to do so.
And note the unionist veto for the NI assembly has already gone (at least for constitutional matters). The English removed it as part of the revised backstop so the DUP couldn't veto things, putting a spanner in England's brexit works.
DeleteThe UK should pull out of the Belfast Agreement as Sinn Fein IRA have failed to attend the Assembly for sectarian reasons. The Irish Republic has obeyed its orders from the EU to disrupt the British EU referendum result. Britain should not hesitate to put troops back in NI if the IRA scum start their murder again.
DeleteIf the UK pulls out of the GFA, it won't have a trade deal with anyone.
DeleteThe English will never do it for that reason. They'll just dump NI. Which is pretty much what they've already done.
And if the English nationalist get their majority next month, watch and see them dumb NI to full backstop quicker than you can sing the sash my father wore.
Always good tae go out on a good song.
DeleteWow. The British restarting their 650 year old genocide in Ireland. What a surprise. Don't worry , the Irish Americans and Scot Americans will bail you out when you are losing the next European War you lose. How do you keep getting in wars in Europe if your not part of Europe??
DeleteIt was actually the Catholic Normans who invaded Ireland at the grace of the then Pope. You Yanks were never very good at history were you? You could give the Red Indians their land back and move to Ireland.
Delete"Red indians"
DeleteAre they 'funny coloured' or something?
Some folk don't seem to care that the Irish were murdered by the *British* in amounts up to 100,000 people buried in mass graves all over Ireland before the IRA so much as threw a stone at the *British*
DeleteThen again education and Unionists are two words that seldom go together, especially when it suits their purposes of dominion over others
On the radio programme on the way home, all the English party representatives said if their parties were in government, they would not hesitate to carry out the mass genocide of millions of innocent people.
ReplyDeleteOnly the SNP was against it.
The Jocks can and are carrying out their own self inflicted mass genocide. Booze, fags and drugs. The extinction of the Holyrood gravy train as a lead up to Brexit would be welcome.
Deleteand the Greens
DeleteSwitched off the Fiona Bruce Show when Swinson came on. I didn't want accent attack on my eardrums. Was she as bad as reported or is that just wishful thinking?
Delete"and the Greens"
DeleteTrue, but they didn't appear to be the on the R4 programme I was listening too and Scots can't vote for the English Greens even if they had been (and the English BBC would hardly give the Scottish greens air time).
Yes, she was as bad as reported, she has managed the unenviable achievement of managing to annoy both left and right wing voters, hence the fall in her parties vote share in polls
DeleteKnickerless Sturgeon gets Jocko politician of the year. So much for the calibre of politicians in Scotland. A 50% cut in Jocko politicians is required. Abolish the Lords and EU Parliament and do the working classes a favour.
ReplyDeleteThe Labour Party are saying people who work for a living and earn over 82k are rich and will be taxed more. They say 35k is the average wage. This means that politicians who earn twice the average wage will not be taxed extra. Nice wee niche for politicians who have the best working conditions and travelling expenses unlike most working people.
ReplyDeleteI'll never forget the first time I saw you mincing down the boulevard in your Cordelia outfit. You were my role model for getting into drag. Thanks.
DeleteGordie: Comment deleted, and please do not post anything like that again. Thank you.
ReplyDelete(And for the avoidance of doubt, this is not a cue for 75,928 "how dare you delete my comment" posts either.)
"A bit of a Lemon".
ReplyDelete(The Cullen Times)
Moray will stay Tory. Lots of anti snp support, which as most areas in the North East used to be lib fems, now they may not agree or like bojo but they are dead against indy and they are older so much more inclined to vote than the younger snp voter. Same in Gordon, banff and Buchan. We might take Gordon, but b and b and moray are likely to remain tory. In the North East I think it's fair to say that not having a first minster from the area has led to a belief that the North East is forgotten about. Which isn't helped by bbcscotland news for example.
ReplyDeleteI don't remember much of a Liberal presence in the NE except in inland Aberdeenshire like Gordon, certainly not along the coast.
DeleteThe military, ex-military and new residents' presence might keep Moray Tory, but the dislike of local people for Douglas Ross is almost universal.
It's the SNP's Blairite "on-message" approach to supporting the EU. But it's Blairism without The Big Tent. (How ironic for a party that was once nationalist.) Maybe they could buy that off-the-shelf one called EFTA?
DeleteDoesn't need to be much of a Liberal presence for it to have an effect. Gordon was lib dem with malcolm Bruce for a long time, west Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (also north east) was lib dem for a long tien with Robert Smith. Aberdeen was Labour.
DeleteMoray and Banff and Buchan were historically tory areas. Banff and Buchan takes in a big area with lots of libs lending their vote to the tories. Just like Gordon and just like Kincardinshire
Also, re Moray
DeleteIt isn't just ex army etc people that vote for the tories. It's actually a wide array of people that are against another indy ref. I've spoken to a few of them. You wouldn't have them down as tories.
I have been told Swinson spent all her time apologising for joining with the Tories during 2010. The woman has no character and is a chancer like most of those Nat si Msps we have here in Scotland. Holyrood the Lords and the EU gravy trains need emptied.
ReplyDeleteI thought she was your new role model with the funny voice and lumpy frocks. I thought you were going to call your new act Jordelia. For when you go down to Blackpool Pride.
DeleteThe lumps are devil's dumplings you nancy boy.
DeleteI hope you all remember me from the days when I did "Frocks On The Box". And I told you to vote SNP because... the poll tax... the bedroom tax... or whatever trendy Weegie-Londinium metropolitan concern.
DeleteYou'll also remember my book about The First Fifty Munros.
Think that I should do another about The Next Feeble Fifty SNP Regionalists in 2020? Given that you're rather partial to metropolitan places like Westminster and Holyrood and the salaries that they hold out.
Well, ahead of 2017, in the same time-frame (starting 2 months before), we had 5 full Scottish polls by this point. 2 x Yougov, BMG, Panelbase and Survation.
ReplyDeleteThis time we have had only 1-2. A yougov (25th October) and a panelbase technically just before our 2 month period on the 11th October.
In terms of 'polls conducted since GE was announced', we have:
2017 = 5
2019 = O
We are 70% of the way through the campaign period.
Just been canvassing for Laura Mitchell in Forres. Much apathy and quite a bit of antagonism. This used to be a good area for us ; what has happened? I can only hope other areas will be better.
ReplyDeleteIndyref2 and brexit, folk are sick of it
DeleteWell, they've England to thank for both. If Scotland was independent, neither would be on the cards.
DeleteBecause of you EU crawling erse lickers.
DeleteSays a English crawling erse licker.
DeleteEU's a heck of a lot cheaper and the let you leave if you want.
DeleteScotland isn't Independent becasue the electorate of Scotland voted not to to become Independent. Nothing to do with England. If you wish to assign blame then the blame falls on 'Yes' parties and camaginers who failed to convince enough of the electorate with their arguments for Independence
DeleteNonsense a pun a mince costs the same. Have you noticed that some EU wines have become unavailable. I have taken to Sooth Eastern Australian wines. Supermarket alcoholic drinks are cheaper in EU supermarkets but booze bought in EU pubs is dearer. The Scottish Gov does not like cheap booze for the peasants.
DeleteIf Scotland was already an independent country there would be no iref and no brexit. This is a factually correct statement.
DeleteAnd scottish nationals (birth certificate holders) voted yes. It was English migrants that voted no, tipping the balance. So technically Iref2 is the 'fault' of the latter.
Although I wasn't blaming anyone. Just stating facts.
DeleteOther countries don't have an independence debate as central feature of their long term politics. It's a product of unionism. This is just the reality. Just a brexit is.
If Scotland was already an independent country there would be no iref and no brexit
DeleteI never disputed that, you either struggled to read my post or made that up. I said that you were incorrect in saying the England (the country as you stated) was at fault. As I correctly stated England had no input in the vote, that was the Scottish Electorate.
But I note that you blame (fault is a synonym of blame) immigrants for not getting the result you wanted in the referendum, your are increasingly sounding like a Brexiter blaming immigrants for things.
If Scotland was not a nation then how is it that Scottish nationals voted! It is unlikely that Scotland if it had not joined the Union would be in the EU. I have a nice bottle of whisky to celebrate leaving the EU.
DeleteEngland had a massive influence. It has reserved the right to legislate and control propoganda channels. Its politicians directly interferend with threats, bribes and campaiging.
DeleteThis was all undemocratic and contrary to un rules on self determination.
It's very likely Scotland is not independent because of the actions of England.
Scotland is a nation and a country, just not an independent sovereign state.
DeleteThis is why it can have a footie team, but no seat at the un.
You cannot have self determination if you join the EU. If you get pissed with the EU and want to leave then they will strangle your economy.
DeleteIt's very likely Scotland is not independent because of the actions of England
DeleteI note you are blaming another country now, again a trait you share with Brexiters.
No, I'm stating facts. It's just you don't like them.
DeleteEngland interfered in the 2014 referendum, making it not free and fair under UN charters on self-determination. It threatened Scotland with severe economic damage and widespread civilian deaths.
Also, the constitution is reserved to Westminster, meaning English MPs will always be to 'blame' matters constitutional. Same for economic disasters. English MPs want this 'blame'. If they didn't, England would seek independence.
Oh wait, now I see. You are racist anti-Scottish.
DeleteYou are using the classic 'English people can complain about the UK government / English MPs but Scots are not allowed to'.
How stupid of me not to pick up on your hatred of Scots.
making it not free and fair under UN charters on self-determination.
Deleteyou have something to back this up, if this was the case the result would of been taken to the courts to get the result invalidated as the result should not stand as the 'rules' were broken. As this did not happen i can assume you are making this up.
You are using the classic 'English people can complain about the UK government / English MPs but Scots are not allowed to'.
Can you point out were I said Scots cannot complain? Again your just lying about that/ making things up.
I just commented that blaming immigrants / other countries for your problems is what Brexiters do.
It threatened Scotland with severe economic damage and widespread civilian deaths.
Deleteyou will have to provide evidence of this too.
Hope you Scottish Nat sis have made forward planning to have thousands of nutjob councilors available to help council the poor remainers when Boris does the business. This could end up worse than a Green Brigade Coatbridge Buckfast outbreak after Celtic losing at fitbae
DeleteWhy does eve bloody muirhead get into winning positions so often and then play a daft shot and throw away the end? SHe's been doing it for years!
ReplyDeleteBaseline for the state of play polling wise before the next slew of polls come out over the next day or so, which should all be post the ITV debate.
ReplyDeleteWith two polls taken since the #ITVDebate, the Britain Elects poll tracker now puts the Tories ahead by 12pts:
CON: 41.6% (+0.7)
LAB: 29.4% (+0.2)
LDEM: 14.9% (-0.2)
BREX: 5.7% (-0.7)
GRN: 3.2% (-)
#Symmetry
Chgs. w/ 19 Nov.
That's a Con majority of around 60. Probably should've voted for independence in 2014, eh, lads? Because you ain't getting another chance on these numbers.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteLet's hope a section 30 is granted, democracy prevails, and Scots don't need to fight for freedom like their forebearers did against the Nazis (when the latter refused Poland etc section 30s).
DeleteOpinium Scots sample:
ReplyDelete48% SNP
22% Con
15% Lab
13% Lib
49 seats would be an epic landslide.
ReplyDelete83% of seats compared to only 54% for the UK Tories.
Tim Shipman
@ShippersUnbound
34m34 minutes ago
More
BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48
Con 349
Lab 213
LD 14
SNP 49
Plaid 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)