Torry/Ferryhill by-election result (Aberdeen City Council):
SNP 43.2% (+11.8)
Conservatives 26.0% (+2.1)
Labour 10.6% (-12.8)
Liberal Democrats 8.4% (+3.3)
Greens 8.1% (+3.3)
Independent 2.3%
UKIP 1.4% (+0.5)
The percentage changes are uncannily similar to last week's three by-elections - the SNP are up, the Tories are up but not by as much, and Labour are down. It looks like voters are highly motivated to turn out for the SNP, which hopefully makes it less likely that the opinion polls will overestimate the SNP's general election support this time. I don't think we should jump to the conclusion that the Tories' vote is likely to increase from 2017 - they tend to benefit from differential turnout in local by-elections, and a drop in the Independent vote may also have been a factor.
Bear in mind that not all of the votes in Torry/Ferryhill were cast after the rigged debate - most postal votes will have been completed before then. But it's a highly reassuring result all the same.
Encouraging as you say James - FWIW, SNP are 2% ahead of Electoral Calculus's prediction for the ward, CON(adding UKIP) 2% lower, LAB and LIB both 5% lower. With no Green candidate standing, This looks good for the election.
ReplyDeleteTransfers:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1197665303427211264
Torry/Ferryhill (Aberdeen) By-Election, votes at final stage 6 (changes vs comparable stage 2017);
SNP - 1989 (53.1%, +12.4)
Con - 1151 (30.8%, +1.4)
Didn't Transfer - 603 (16.1%, -9.8%)
So ~53% Yes now?
So the UK is officially a rogue state, and will soon be subject to UN sanctions for illegal occupation of another country's territory, from which it previously forcibly deported the population just like the Germans did to Jews.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50511847
No it won't only the Security council can impose UN sanctions and the UK has a veto in that.
DeleteYou are wrong or lying.
DeleteSanctions would be slow, incremental and largely institutional - in the sense that Britain is going to find itself squeezed at institutions that it has traditionally seen as very important.
Britain no longer has a judge on 14-seat International Court of Justice in The Hague, and it's going to start to see UN maps reflecting the legal fact that the UN sees this islands as belonging to Mauritius."
'A rogue state in breach of international law for brutal colonial occupation of an other country's territory and subject to UN sanctions' is a correct assessment of the situation.
As someone who makes repeated statements about being a scientist i'm surprised you don't know not to check with multiple sources before making a statement and not just use one source.
DeleteUN sanctions are implemented by the security council
https://news.un.org/en/story/2016/05/528382-un-sanctions-what-they-are-how-they-work-and-who-uses-them
Which the UK has a veto on, therefore my statement that UN sanctions will not be imposed is correct.
I never stated there would be the type of sancitons you are describing. I was referring to these:
Deletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50511847
Sanctions would be slow, incremental and largely institutional - in the sense that Britain is going to find itself squeezed at institutions that it has traditionally seen as very important.
Anything of this sort is a sanction. The declaration that the occupation is illegal is in itself a sanction, so my original post remains correct, no matter how to try to twist things.
I notice how you accept the UK is an aggressive imperial power occupying other people's land while forcibly mass transporting the residents and try to deflect using the definition of sanction.
Get over it, the UK is an evil, occupying aggressor involved in racist mass deportations.
I never said it wasn't, along with most of the western powers it has a terrible track record.
DeleteAnyhow in a couple of months Scotland will be free, onwards and upwards for you. I have to wonder why you concern yourself so much over the UK when you are so convinced that Scotland will be independent soon? Why are you so preoccupied in another country, its a bit creepy.
Good to hear you acknowledge that. There are also lots of western countries with far better records, which the UK should emulate.
DeleteThe UK isn't another country. Scotland is part of it.
If Scotland becomes independent, I will be much less concerned about the UK and how it's governed. Until that time, I shall exercise my right to free speech and free/fair voting (and fight for these by all means if needs be).
So long as it acts legally on the international stage and in terms of international human rights laws domestically.
Hoping the result from Moray in Keith & Cullen will be as good as that from Torry & Ferryhill.
ReplyDeleteI spoke to the Tory candidate in Cullen. She seemed utterly stupid and the essence of the colonial (I-know-better-than-the-natives) type. The Tories are pretty strong here - and all things being equal would probably win - but if she's spoken to enough people then the SNP could easily come out on top.
ReplyDeleteThe demographics in Moray are strange with the admixture of thousands of military and the colonials living in beautiful ex-fishing towns and villages or inland in Speyside. Being from Moray, I was always surprised that SNP MPs and MSPs did so well. Almost all the local people must be voting SNP!
DeleteI had the dubious pleasure of getting a taxi home from the station, driven by one of the newer residents who asked me was I pleased at how well we'd done in the rugby that day. We had lost to France but England had beaten Wales.
Tory gain from 'independent' Tory, so a Tory hold.
DeleteSNP vote held up solidly.
Meaning it went down?
DeleteEncouraging results from the 5 council elections over the last week. Moray looked like the steepest hill to climb but vote share was maintained.
DeletePotential tactical voting will be an issue but a surprising number refusing to cast their vote for another party. The Tories have moved to the right and it is unsurprisingly a bigger pill to swallow for Labour and Liberal voters. Davidson attempted to muddy those waters in 2017 but Johnson, Rees Mogg etc are a harder sell.
Meaning it went down?
DeleteThat's not possible to conclude locally based on an 0.7% change on a low turnout.
Was the 0.7% change in an upward or downward direction?
DeleteYou can't read and/or use the internet?
DeleteA big net positive today combining all results, and likewise for the year so far.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1197875857676734464
With all that in mind, here is how the total of this years votes compares to 2017 for the same wards;
SNP - 37.0% (+3.0)
Con - 21.9% (+2.1)
Lab - 17.2% (-6.9)
Lib Dem - 10.3% (+5.8)
Green - 6.6% (+1.3)
Independents - 5.6% (-6.4)
Others - 1.4% (+1.0)
Although caveats apply that this is not indicative of national shares of course for obvious reasons!
I'd be curious to know if the Salmond case this week will affect the polls at all
ReplyDeleteThe media will be pushing it as far as they can and must be livid it won't be heard till January.
DeleteYou'd need to ask hardcore unionists that. They are the only people I've ever met that apparently vote a specific way 'cos Alex Salmond'.
DeleteThe media have to be very careful they do not jeopardise the trial for cheap political advantage. Doubt other than loose cannons smearing on boards it will feature in the remaining 19 days. The case will be done and dusted well over a year before the Holyrood elections in 2021. I doubt it will feature much by then either. A week is long time in politics...a year an eternity.
DeleteThe future's bright, the future's SNP.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1197848157339705347
Not only the future. The charts show SNP at 5% in all age groups up to 50+
DeleteMy current UK subsample PoP (historcially lies between Panelbase and Yougov full Scottish):
ReplyDelete46% SNP
24% Con
11% Lab
3% Brx
2% Grn
Updated to include latest Yougov, MORI and Comres.
As with the Fife and Inverness by elections last week, the sheer collapse of the Labour vote is staggering.
ReplyDelete