So this is more like it, after the slight disappointment of the by-election in Dundee last week. Haddington and Lammermuir isn't particularly SNP territory - the party finished third in the ward (albeit a strong third) last time around, at a time when there was a clear SNP lead nationally. In yesterday's by-election, they moved into a clear second place as the Labour vote collapsed.
Haddington and Lammermuir by-election result (9th May 2019):
Conservatives 35.0% (+6.0)
SNP 29.5% (+3.5)
Labour 21.5% (-12.2)
Liberal Democrats 12.2% (+4.9)
UKIP 1.7% (n/a)
That's the result on first preferences, but the SNP were even closer to victory than those figures suggest. Of the hundreds of Labour voters who transferred on the decisive count, 56.2% went to the SNP and only 43.8% to the Tories - once again giving the lie to the notion that the Labour support can be regarded as part of some sort of monolithic unionist bloc. If the Tory vote drops significantly in some of the crucial north-east marginals at the next general election, Ruth Davidson shouldn't expect unionist tactical votes to save her. Labour supporters in those seats may even be rather more tempted to cast a tactical anti-Brexit vote for the SNP.
That said, Haddington and Lammermuir is obviously a solid result for the Tories as well, and defies recent opinion polls by showing no sign of any loss of support to pro-Brexit parties. (There was no Brexit Party candidate, but UKIP were there.) I suspect it's a case of horses for courses, though, and that voters will behave very differently at the Euro elections.
Off the back of the mail shot cock up made me wonder if anyone has ever actually decided to vote a particular party/ changed their mind about voting for a party after reading an election mail shot?
ReplyDeleteObviously must convince people in some shape of form otherwise parties would not do it, but in a day and age were people get large amounts of information (rolling news forums social media etc) cant see how a bit of paper coming through your letter box would convince many people to change their vote.
I think they definitely make a difference. A lot of people who aren't very interested in politics say "I'll read the leaflets and then decide".
DeleteYes. And the glossy ones the Tories use when they go over the budget work much better. I have studies somewhere. If EVERYONE uses the same well made flyers distributed the same way and we'll designed it is less effective. As American legend Tip O'Neill pointed out following his first race ( the only one he lost) " people like to be asked!! ( His landlady didn't vote for him, because he didn't ask . One of his 16 opponents did ask. Be hired the man as his driver, a job he kept till death. All the stuff works. Think killing bugs or laundry detergent. They have 50 ways to do it.
DeleteTip O'Neill was a corrupt arsehole. He'd have done just as well in a central American banana republic as he did in the north American one. A crook.
DeleteMassive vote for Unionist parties. The Scottish Nat si / EU crawlers should be miles ahead according to them.
ReplyDeleteThe winds racing round Cordelia's gusset today, ladies.
DeleteIt should never be forgotten that Andrew Fletcher of Saltoun in Haddington shire was one of two "elected" members of Parliament for the county and has gone down in history as "The Patriot", being the last man standing against the Act of Union in 1707. A brave man who fought against the union to the bitter end.
ReplyDeleteHe fought for the Glorious Revolution which ultimately brought an end to the Scottish Parliament. He would not have known he would be shooting himself in the foot. Nevertheless he had Scotlands interest at heart.
DeleteYet he never tasted lemon sorbet.
DeleteOr sherbet dab and lovehearts.
DeleteThe treats of the vulgar horde.
DeleteFor Labour to poll just 21% in East Lothian is good news for the SNPs chances of regaining the seat they lost at the GE.
ReplyDeleteGreat news too that Gina Miller is calling on folk to back the SNP in the European elections.
Rich woman backs the Nat sis. Same old pattern from the Liberal elites. The working class can kiss our erses.
DeleteOh Cordelia, is that what you want? A bit of rough kissing your bottom? You do become naughty when you've been downing the Carlsberg Specials.
DeleteLets take Gina's advice and get out and vote remain strongly and consign the anti EU,xenophobic, natsi, racist fascists to the annals of history. Onward to deeper integration, a European army and a United States of Europe, which can become the greatest power in the world.
DeleteWith a properly constituted European parliament with executive powers, we could get rid of all the corrupt bloodsucking wasters that inhabit Westminster and Holyrood. Lets drain the swamp and abolish them, we could replace 180 odd self serving, never had a job, drain on the public purse, corrupt cronies with just 6 properly scrutinised and accountable public servants. We'd save on elections and salaries and could spend the surplus on public services.
Lets build bridges not borders
Lets make Europe great again
And dominate the world as we did in the second millennium
Lets be the USE
USE.
GWC will definitely agree with this. He's all for reducing politician numbers and hates Holyrood.
DeleteUnknown is that the BRIT NATSIS you are on about they are the closest to those other ones the baddie ones. Never mind the wind will blow the changes and independence shall arrive with joyous song and happiness for all except for greedy Brit Natsis.
DeleteLets have a democratically elected Governor of Scotland and more power devolved to city and county level where it can be used most effectively within an overarching European federal framework that treats all its states equally.
DeleteFit haeppint, tae Iain Gray ?
ReplyDeleteHe is off looking, for the 'Oil Fund'.
DeleteOne and one, are three.
He did his stint as Branch Manager and got fed up of everyone laughing at him. Even Solange Grassick in Dunbar. Dambah Hoe. Dambah Hoe. What jolly fun.
DeleteJolly good. Toodle pip.
DeleteI can’t understand why anyone would want to be part of a ‘United States of Great Britain’.
ReplyDeleteImagine that. Your parliament’s sovereignty essentially gone, replaced by a regional assembly with very limited powers. No ability manage your own economy or international relations. The vast bulk of your taxes and industries controlled by the USoGB parliament in far off London.
And that parliament is full of MPs not even elected in your country, dictating the laws of the land, before we even get to the upper chamber of bloodsucking, trough gorging unelected bureaucrats and religious leaders.
Your flag relegated to a mere regional symbol. Your languages replaced by that of a dominant neighbour, with Scottish kids forced to learn this over their own. Your Olympic team disbanded, with your athletes lucky if they get a few % of the spaces on ‘Team GB’.
Your voice on the international stage completely silenced. No ‘Council of Great Britain’ like Europe has where each country has a veto.
Your army wiped from existence, with your soldiers forced to fight in a new ‘United States of Great Britain Army’. Your TV stations / broadcasting removed from your control and taken over by the central USoGB government for propaganda purposes.
When it all becomes to much and you vote democratically for a referendum on independence, the USoGB government tries to deny that right, declaring such moves illegal.
Yet most brexiters voted for this, even though they claim to be utterly against such things.
Scottish skier nice couple of paragraphs and I can concur with them all.
DeleteThere is seven paragraphs so what two did you agree with?
DeleteIan Grey is about the size of a tangerine.
DeleteEvery state in America has ten times the independence than Scotland has in the Brotish state.
ReplyDeleteAnd every one an inch!
Delete