Friday, March 2, 2018

Tory hubris cruelly exposed AGAIN as even the Beast From The East can't stop the SNP from winning the Clackmannanshire North by-election

To quote the immortal words of Ruth Davidson herself: "Well done, Clacks!"  When it was revealed that the turnout in yesterday's Clackmannanshire North by-election had somehow almost reached one-quarter of the registered electorate, many of us feared the worst, because it seemed obvious that a lot of that must have been postal votes - which could quite reasonably be expected to favour unionist parties, and especially the Tories.  But we should have had more faith - the news has filtered through that the SNP have won.  This is the second outright victory for the SNP in local by-elections in the last three weeks - and the third outright defeat for unionist parties.

UPDATE: Here is the full result on first preferences -

SNP 37.0% (-3.3)
Conservatives 31.7% (+7.7)
Labour 23.7% (-3.0)
Liberal Democrats 4.0% (-1.1)
Greens 3.6% (-0.2)

I gather that quite a few Conservative supporters are extremely keen for us to believe that this is not, as appearances would suggest, a defeat for their party, but rather a stunning triumph - ie. because their vote went up and everybody else's went down.  There are even a few wildly optimistic claims that this result is evidence that the opinion polls are wrong to suggest that the tide is going back out on Scottish Tory fortunes.  Well, good luck to them in attempting to make that narrative stick.  I think most sensible people fully appreciate that this by-election was fought under almost unique circumstances, and ones which favoured the Tories heavily.  The SNP have done extremely well to overcome their disadvantages and squeeze out a victory.

There was a poster on the Vote UK forum yesterday who was absolutely incredulous at suggestions that the by-election should have been called off - "what, for snow?" he asked.  I'm not sure if people outside the affected areas quite realise just what an extreme weather event this has been.  I live about twenty miles from the Clackmannanshire North ward, and when I went out for a short walk yesterday afternoon the scenes were almost medieval.  It must have been physically impossible for some people to get to the polling stations, and highly risky for others to attempt it.  Grant Thoms suggested yesterday morning that it was irresponsible for political parties to even encourage people to vote, but the other side of the equation is that some people who wanted to vote were denied their democratic rights by the decision not to postpone the by-election - or more accurately by the fact that it was apparently not possible under the rules for it to be postponed simply because of the weather.  (In 1974 there was a general election on February 28th - the mind boggles as to what would have happened if the weather had been like this.)  It's simply a fact that more affluent people who are more likely to vote Tory are also more likely to succeed in casting a vote in these difficult circumstances.

To the extent we can draw any lessons at all from this result, though, this is how I would look at it.  The SNP have had a few very bad results in local by-elections since last June, and they've all followed the same pattern - they've been in traditional SNP-Labour battleground areas, and the swing to Labour has significantly outstripped anything suggested by the opinion polls.  The Clackmannanshire result very much bucks that trend.  It's a ward that in the past has seen straight SNP-Labour contests, with Labour even managing to just about fend off the Tories for second place last year.  And yet on this occasion there has essentially been no swing at all from SNP to Labour, and Labour have been pushed into third place by the Tories.  OK, the weather might explain some of that, but there's certainly no sign here of the SNP being swept away by a Corbyn juggernaut in the central belt.

44 comments:

  1. Well done the SNP and all, whichever way they voted, who turned out yesterday

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  2. Well done, too, to everyone that manned the polling stations and conducted the count - can't have been easy with the conditions.

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  3. Tories (and Labour in places) tend to do better with postal votes. SNP tend to do better on the votes cast on the day.

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  4. Yes, agree with the two comments above. Bad enough in a relatively compact area but what would have happened if the by-election had been somewhere like Argyll or Sutherland? Hopefully not relevant to IndyRef2 but the law needs reformed.

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    1. That's why major elections aren't normally scheduled for dates when weather can be a significant impediment. Can't be avoided completely (e.g. there was some localised flooding on the day of the Brexit vote) but it does reduce the risk. Always strikes me as a bit risky/daft that American elections are always held in early November.

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  5. Candidates who believe in Scotland are being elected.
    Those who are in the London/England knows best parties will struggle when it's obvious they would hae a hard time running a car boot sale.

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  6. Very good news and congratulations to the people of Clackmannanshire. Thanks for not being British nationalists.

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  7. http://www.clacks.gov.uk/council/electionresults/?election=40

    SNP 37.0% (-3.5 since 2017)
    Con 31.7% (+7.7)
    Lab 23.7% (-3.0)
    LD 4.0% (-1.1)
    Grn 3.6% (-0.3)

    NB The % given by the Council this time includes the rejected ballots, oddly. There were three SNP and two Labour candidates on the ballot in 2017.

    As expected with the weather and low turnout, the Tory share was up, but not by enough to win. SNP had a lead of 111 votes on first count, with 493 Labour, 84 Lib Dem and 74 Greens available for transfer. I don't see a transfer report on the link yet.

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    1. Quota = 1039 I assume.
      First preference for SNP = 769.

      So transfers to SNP need to be at least 270 (am I right).

      Greens & LibDem only had total of 158.

      So? Full results are slated for Monday.

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  8. Replies
    1. Paul, please don't feed the troll...

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    2. Sorry to advise you Paul that I am not part of that bum bhoy religion that gets it right up them. I note another one of your NI bishops has resigned..Just think if it was not for the Union the bum bhoys would never have been outed. Apply the cream moderately Paul.

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    3. The homophobic troll enters, stage left.

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    4. Apply the cream moderately Tomlin and bite on yer pillow.

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    5. State of this.

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  9. Seat analysis; http://ballotbox.allanfaulds.scot/clackmannanshire-north-by-election-01-03-18

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  10. I assume that due to this Earth shattering result the Nat sis will call an immediate referendum. Sensible people stayed at home while the dole scrounger nat sis left the pubs tae vote. Even the ludge closed for the night.

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  11. well done all voters making the effort

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  12. GWC2 is an on the run Nazi war criminal who was expelled from the 3rd Reich for running a petting zoo/animal sex dungeon.

    His favourite activity is allowing his Alsatian to relieve itself in his mouth before having a necrophiliac threesome with the dead bodies of his mother and father.

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    1. Jimmy Savile says it was great being a Catholic. Great Crack.

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    2. State of this.

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  13. That is a great idea tae build a bridge between Jockland and NI. We could have an annual Orange Wok between the two.

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  14. The Wee County has aye been a weathervane for Scotland.
    Weel done tae the new SNP Councillor.
    Onwards and upwards.

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  15. You have to admire Treeza May for the dignified way she goes about her business considering she was a remainer and accepts the democratic wish of the British people.
    In comparison you have Knickerless slack drawers and that Irish PM f, witt gobbing off a complete load of selfish bollocks.

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    1. State of this.

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    2. Note to GWC2. It's getting too obvious now. It was a better wind up before.

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  16. Nae admiration at all for Teresa May.
    She's walking on eggshells, trying tae steal powers back tae London from Holyrood and Cardiff.
    Ruth will spin like a peerie tae help wi Gordon Brewer licking her boots.
    Cometh the day cometh the sook.
    Baith a complete embarrassment tae Scotland.

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    1. No disagreement here.

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    2. Is this powers taken back from the EU which you do not want. How can stealing something you do not want be classed as stealing? Wierd lot you nat sis.

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    3. State of this.

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    4. Gut. State of gut.

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    5. State of this.

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  17. Oh poor wee Knickerless almost crying on Peston this morning over Brexit. She wants the EU to run Scotland and it aint gonna happen. But dinnae worry hen the Scottish working class taxpayer will pay for your inflated pension. You can stomach that hen. Oh and the food banks you were committed tae gettin of are still here ya wee hypocrite. Love yer shoes though.

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  18. 22 of the 658 Tory votes had SNP as second preference! Whats not to like :)

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  19. There is a spanner in the works. There is going to be an election in June when May resigns. This will be on the back of a no Deal. I predict some Tory seats will return to SNP. That small movement will trigger indi ref 2 and it will be in late September 2018.

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