Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Crisis mounts for embattled Ruth Davidson as three more subsamples put the SNP in the lead

Just for the sake of completeness, here are the three most recent Scottish subsamples from Britain-wide polls -

ICM: SNP 34%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 21%, Greens 4%, UKIP 4%, Liberal Democrats 4%

YouGov: SNP 37%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 4%

Opinium: SNP 35%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 24%, Greens 6%, UKIP 1%, Liberal Democrats 1%

In a sense these are in line with the full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase, because they all show the SNP in the lead, and they all show the SNP well ahead of Labour, who until recently had looked like the main challenger.  There have now been twenty-three subsamples since the election, and fourteen have put the SNP ahead.  Seven have shown a Labour lead, and only two have shown a Tory lead.

If we buy into the theory that there was a Labour surge during the summer which has since subsided, there's one huge mystery that has yet to be solved.  How do we explain the significant swing from SNP to Labour in the very recent Cardonald and Fortissat by-elections, which took place at roughly the same time as the Panelbase poll was in the field?  Perhaps there were local factors at play, and perhaps it's just coincidence that more or less the same thing happened in two different places at once...but we should probably keep an open mind until we have more information.

Note : I'm out of the country for a couple of weeks with intermittent internet access, so blogging may be light.

28 comments:

  1. Well, well, well! Enjoy your holiday, James - I'm assuming it's a holiday - and come back refreshed.

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  2. Another internationalist! Off hobnobbing with them frenchies and their like....

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  3. The combined Unionist vote is well ahead in the three polls.

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    1. This scrounging chav is worried about his english dole cheque coz he knows you jocks are as tight as a rats arse.

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    2. And you are well versed with rat's arse I presume,so I must ask how do you know how tight it is? Have you been studying them? or have you been doing something else that cant be mentioned? I was always led to believe that a Yorkshire inhabitant was the meanest type ever born,this was told to me by a boy from Yorkshire when he seen I had a five pound note he stayed by my side till it was spent,and was my friend all the time I had that fiver.

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  4. Enjoy your break away from the mad world of unionists James ;-)

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  5. Yes,internet access can be difficult south of the border.
    Enjoy.

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  6. Nice to see that JK PLagiarist has finally admitted, of her own free will, that she's not Scottish in any way, size, shape or form. And is just an english immigrant interfering in our country due to her revolting pro Nazi, Pro-Apartheid beliefs.

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    1. Who is JK PLagiarist?

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    2. Says the anti English bum boy.

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    3. Fuck off ya nat sis imposters.

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    4. Nothing more dangerous than a Britnatsi and there are lots of those British nationalists,because nationalism is good as long as it their kind of nationalism.

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  7. I'm more skeptical than ever about the usefulness of Scottish subsamples.

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    1. They are substantially off both the Panelbase and the Survation polls in underestimating the SNP lead. If they just missed one I might put it down to the poll being an outlier. With their being so far off both polls, I am inclined to simply dismiss them.

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    2. I'm more than sceptical about the usefulness of anything Scottish.

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    3. Scotch, Women...are you crazy?

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  8. James, are you aff tae Bang Cock tae dae the Garry Glitter tourist trail or bringing a dolly burd back tae produce some wee yes voters.

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    1. Even the Thai ladyboys would turn you jocks down. Swing low sweet chariot.

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    2. Ah, the rancid, yellow bile of a Saturday night.

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  9. Scottish elections are now a mystery and can't be guessed in advance. You just don't know what you are going to end up with until the morning after the vote. Polling has limited usefulness - too many volatile voters, too many shy and dishonest voters, too many lazy voters. Only time will reveal the true state of Scottish politics.

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    1. The quiet Unionist in Scotland facing the bile fae the Nat sis can go tae the ballot box and safely say, get it right up ye National Socialist flag wavers. Zeig Heil meine Jock.

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    2. My wife's run off with another woman, she said I was too wee too poor and too stupid

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  10. My browser is now showing this blog address as being .co.id.
    Indonesia!
    Imagine internet access there will be pretty unreliable.
    Ha ha.

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