Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Has Colonel Ruth FALLEN OFF HER TANK? Another day, another third place for the Scottish Tories

In the continued absence of any full-scale Scottish polling, arguably the most meaningful guide to the state of play is the Scottish subsamples of YouGov's GB-wide polls - the reason being that YouGov are the only firm that claims to weight their Scottish samples separately.  (And, indeed, the figures they produce tend to be more stable than other firms.)  The third post-election YouGov poll has now been released, and the Scottish subsample has the SNP narrowly ahead: SNP 33%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 27%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 2%, BNP 2%.

Of course, even properly-weighted subsamples have extremely high margins of error, but that problem can be reduced by looking at an average of all three YouGov subsamples since June 8th, which produces the following figures: SNP 33.3%, Labour 32.0%, Conservatives 25.7%, Liberal Democrats 5.7%.

That confirms the general impression of subsamples from across the polling industry, ie. that it's a very tight three-way battle, but that the SNP are probably just about still in the lead, Labour have probably moved up to second place, and the Tories have probably slipped back to third.  There have now been thirteen Scottish subsamples from various firms since the election - eight have put the SNP ahead, four have put Labour ahead, and only one has put the Tories in front.

26 comments:

  1. Forget Davidson , she has reached her max , the one to watch is Labour , especially in the central belt . If they can pull the wool over enough eyes they are on to a winner . If they replace Dugdale with a Corbyn loving , red flag flying leader , their lead is assured !

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  2. Agree with this - we in PfY are concerned about this rise in the Labour vote and see it as a threat and will be encouraging all our members to continue supporting SNP

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    1. Narrow minded Nat sis against Labour now that is a threat to socialism.

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    2. State of this.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. Yeah, it's about time the Kezia Dugdale Party came out into the open and joined up formally with the Ruth Davidson Party. Who knows, they might stand a chance then. All the proper socialists have joined the SNP already anyway.

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  3. Wonder if the Celik Green Brigades support the Nat sis!

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    1. Absolute bloody state of this.

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  4. I've got to hand it to you, James, you somehow find positives in everything - even when your own party has lost 1/3rd of its support and the big 3 are separated by a cigarette paper, you somehow take solace in the Tories' position. You're bearing up far better than I would if I were a nationalist. I'd turn the air blue - no pun intended - seeing figures like that.

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    1. Let me get this straight - my party is in first place, your party has slipped to third place...and I'm the one that's supposed to be devastated? Yeah, sure...

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    2. Yes, because You're dropping like a stone and can't win a Scottish Parliament election or indyref on numbers even remotely like that.

      That's the real story here - SNP decline, hard and fast. I'm glad your not in the polis, James. So what was the cause of death chief inspector? Eh, I'm no too sure about that but I do remember his wallpaper was absolutely terrible...

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    3. Sigh. These are voting intention figures for Westminster elections, not Scottish Parliament elections. And the main reason Labour's Westminster vote has increased is because they've won back a minority of independence supporters. Those people have not ceased to be independence supporters. They're not suddenly going to vote No in the next indyref.

      If you're hopelessly confused about anything else, feel free to let me know and I'll do my best for you.

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    4. But they might vote NO if they think British socialism is just a year or two away at most.

      I realise that Holyrood elections and WM elections are different. But GE 2015 gave 50% for the SNP whilst Holyrood 2016 gave 47%. So, comparable levels of support, with Holyrood support slightly down on WM support, if anything.

      You can't stay in denial. The SNP are bleeding support. To be within a few % of both Labour and the Tories? Totally disastrous for your cause.

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    5. "But GE 2015 gave 50% for the SNP whilst Holyrood 2016 gave 47%"

      And GE 2005 gave 18% for the SNP whilst Holyrood 2007 gave 33%.

      And GE 2010 gave 20% for the SNP whilst Holyrood 2011 gave 45%.

      Hmmmmm. You were saying?

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    6. The figures you are using are pre-indyref and therefore not particularly relevant to today's situation. We've had years of polarisation in Scotland, with Westminster and Holyrood polls - and election results - putting the SNP at or around 50%. Now, one set of those figures appears to be dropping off quite dramatically. It seems reasonable to expect that this will be mirrored in the other set, the Holyrood polls, as soon as such figures become available. Time will tell.

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    7. Aldo, what makes you think you have to WIN an election anymore. ?? The tories have won exactly one in 3 decades.just stating the facts....

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    8. Like it seemed quite reasonable to think "the don't knows and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for Remain"?

      Your track record on predictions is not exactly stellar. What seems considerably more probable is that we're heading back to the pre-indyref status quo ante of the SNP finding the terrain tougher in Westminster elections than in Holyrood elections, for the obvious reason that the electorate knows that the SNP are only in contention for power in Holyrood elections.

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    9. Aldo was predicting the other week that, if Theresa May doesn't obey her wishes, Ruth Davidson might instruct "her" MPs to bring down the government and usher Corbyn into office. Even before the event, his predictions tend to look pretty awful.

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  5. James, I thought you were a socialist!

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    1. Unlike me I'm a tory till I die.

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    2. Don't be too inflexible! Weaponised, anti-SNP tactical voting needs to be the norm until they are returned to their box. Maybe we'll let them keep the Western Isles.

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    3. Comedy gold.

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    4. GWC2 a Tory? Does Ruth Davidson know? I Think We Should Be Told!

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  6. Give the 'I'm a Yes, but voted Labour' ones a chance to vote Yes again and they'll do so. Labour has always had a significant minority of voters who have expressed support for independence. They are the people who got angry with the party in 2012-2014.

    For many, it seems they see indyref 2 as 'not immediate enough, Corbyn's the quick route now to the change I want'.

    But in fact there's every chance that the next GE will be further off than the next indyref. I see people giving it 'it seems so far off, so I'll consider voting Labour'. Prove to them it isn't and win them back. Once it becomes 'real' (in the 'there's now an indyref campaign on' sense) people who are minded for Yes will declare themselves again in numbers.

    The SNP are making a mistake if they see their lower vote in the GE (and the apparent willingness of some Yessers to vote Labour) as anything other than 'indy didn't seem to be on the table just now and so Corbyn seemed to be the quicker route to something better OR I'm just not voting at all because indy is not on the table'.

    This analysis of course does not apply in those areas that voted Tory; we're talking Yes-Lab voters here.

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  7. For many Labour supporters it wasn't independence as such that caused them to abandon Labour but New Labour and it's Thatcherite agenda,along with Phony Blair and his Middle East fiasco.
    Corbyn has offered some of these voters the possibilty of a social democratic government in Westminster but as we all know,England is a Tory country and will soon reject his policies.
    As for the Tories,a third rate party in Scotland and once the full effects of Brexit are felt,merely a historical anomaly.

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  8. Aldo - Corbyn is a wolf in sheeps clothing, he is no longer a true Socialist. He was anti Trident and now is willing to spend a fortune on replacing it. Fracking now there is a conundrum for Corbyn!!! Back tracking on his promises to the students, he has sold his Socialist soul to be a leader. He has to be challenged on every Socialist principle and then you will see the true blue blood he has in his veins

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