Devastation for Davidson as full-scale Scottish poll from Survation shows Tories slumping to third

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation, telephone fieldwork) :

SNP 39% 
Labour 29% 
Conservatives 26% 
Liberal Democrats 6% 

The obvious health warning here is that Survation have established themselves as the most Labour-friendly pollster at GB-wide level, so if that (potential) skew has carried through to their Scottish polling, they may well be overstating Labour in this poll.  Which, ironically, would actually be good news for Labour, because the only party that is going to benefit from a Labour surge of this type in Scotland is the Conservative party.  If SNP voters are switching to Labour in SNP/Tory marginal seats because they think it's going to help get the Tories out...well, it's difficult to know whether to laugh or cry.

As you may have seen in the previous post, the average of tonight's six Scottish subsamples is more in line with the recent full-scale poll from YouGov.  It puts the SNP on 42%, the Tories on 27% and Labour on 24%.

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UPDATE : A new full-scale poll from Panelbase shows a vaguely similar trend to Survation, but because of the different starting-point it still puts Labour in a distant third place.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Panelbase) :

SNP 41% (-1)
Conservatives 30% (n/c)
Labour 22% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)

Obviously it's a bit troubling to have two polls showing SNP leads of 10% and 11% on the eve of the election - but the odd thing is that, because there's a different party in second place in each one, averaging them produces a more favourable picture...

Average of Survation and Panelbase polls :

SNP 40.0% 
Conservatives 28.0% 
Labour 25.5% 
Liberal Democrats 5.5% 

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UPDATE II : There's also been a full-scale Scottish poll from BMG published tonight, but as with the last one from the same firm, it's of limited use because the fieldwork is out of date.  It was conducted between the 27th and 31st of May, and as we know, there may have been further movement to Labour since then.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (BMG) :

SNP 42% (-1)
Conservatives 27% (-3)
Labour 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+3)

One thing we can do with these numbers is make a comparison with the Survation and Panelbase polls that were conducted at roughly the same time.  A 15% SNP lead is higher than either of those two firms were showing (Panelbase had a 12% lead and Survation had a 13% lead), which at least raises the possibility that a more up-to-date BMG poll might have shown a slightly bigger SNP lead than we've seen from Panelbase and Survation tonight.  That's highly speculative, but it's perhaps a minor point of reassurance.  It certainly looks unlikely that a BMG poll conducted this week would have put Labour in second place.