Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? (ORB, telephone fieldwork)
Remain 48% (n/c)
Leave 49% (+2)
For telephone polls, ORB now filter their headline numbers by certainty to vote, which generally helps Leave. Among the unfiltered sample, Remain are still ahead, but their five point advantage is dramatically down from the peak of twenty points recorded just a few weeks ago (when some commentators were declaring it 'game over').
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UPDATE : And we also have a YouGov online poll, which reports the Leave lead jumping from one point to seven. That could be pretty significant, because before now there had only really been one recent online poll showing a dramatic swing to Leave (the big shifts were generally confined to phone polls).
Remain 39% (-3)
Leave 46% (+3)
That isn't quite a record-breaking Leave lead for YouGov, but it's certainly the highest since the firm reported the mini-recovery for Remain in late February (which other firms curiously failed to pick up). Even before that, a 7-point Leave lead would have looked unusually big - it was only bettered once, by a 9-point lead in early February, which in retrospect was probably a fluke.
Note for "international thriller writer" and "Thatcherite outlaw" Sean Thomas, if he happens to be reading this : No, the Scottish Sun did not come out for independence in 2014. They ummed and ahhed about it, but in the end they were neutral (and if anything, their polling day front page might have been said to subtly steer readers towards No). So the English edition is going out on more of a limb this time by backing a Leave vote outright.