Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Shall nation speak truth unto nation?
I have a new article at the International Business Times, on the subject of whether or not the BBC have had a good referendum campaign so far. You can read it HERE.
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The BBC two years ago admitted that Scots only had a 46% trust in it and it is still on a downward spiral. The BBC has no future in Scotland as the trust has gone forever.
ReplyDeleteTheir coverage has been pretty good in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteCertainly the best of the lot, under incredibly difficult circumstances for the national broadcaster.
Hugh.
The BBC on Saturday night repeated an episode of Dads Army in which Fraser, the Scots one, took charge of the Platoon and a made right mess of things.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances of that,eh ? of the hundreds of Dads Army episodes they stick that one on the week before Scotland decides its future in a referendum.
Nothing happens in this World by accident. If you think that's a mere coincidence, it's strange then that all these coincidences keep adding up.
Anyone have any idea on this poll?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/twittprognosis/status/511863851827363841
Oh and James, I'm sorry to say your Hillsborough allusion is a bit silly to say the least.
ReplyDeleteI know this is important, and you feel strongly about it, but no-one has been killed.
No matter what you think of their coverage the BBC hasn't done anything like accusing Yes supporters of stealing from and urinating on their dead friends and relatives.
Things are reaching fever pitch sure, but you still could have made that final (valid) point about trust without that kind of stuff.
Hugh.
ICM poll at 9pm...James is going to have a late one digesting 2-4 two new polls.
ReplyDeleteHugh - Please explain to me what you think my allusion is, because judging from your reaction you've completely misunderstood it.
ReplyDeleteFor the avoidance of doubt, I immediately asked the IBTimes to change the title they originally used, because it didn't reflect my views and I feared it might cause offence.
I remember harridan Kirsty Squawk showing her true colours when she interviewed Alex Salmond over the release of the Lockerbie bomber.
ReplyDelete'' You're picking fights with London '' she shrieked.
From my angle, London was picking fights with Scotland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnQPptuG8uM
James
ReplyDeleteI agree the headline is misleading and doesn't reflect what you wrote.
Just think you could have made the point equally well, or even better, without reference to the Hillsborough tragedy and scandal.
Hugh.
Hugh : Surely the headline has gone now, hasn't it? Or am I missing something?
ReplyDeleteI've said it elsewhere but there needs to be a quiet campaign of mass non-payment of the licence fee. There's plenty of info about how to avoid paying. We just need to spread the word, along with alternative news sources.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's still there in the URL James.
ReplyDeleteI realise it's still in the URL, but as long as it's not the title anymore, that's the main thing.
ReplyDeleteI just filled in a youGov poll on the referendum. I've been doing YouGov polls for years and I've only been asked political questions about 3 times. Twice in the last 2/3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteRobQos
From cityindex.co.uk:
ReplyDeleteHere are the upcoming polls ahead of Thursday’s referendum:
Today – 9pm: ICM poll for The Guardian
Today – 10:30pm: Survation poll for the Scottish Daily Mail
Wednesday 17th – 6pm: Ipsos MORI poll for STV News
Wednesday 17th – Expected well before midnight: YouGov poll
Wednesday 17th – No time yet stated: Opinium poll for The Telegraph
Thursday 18th – No time yet stated, early afternoon expected: Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard
I've been having a look at the people who have retweeted Kenny Farquharson's tweet about the ICM poll. Unfortunately George Foulkes is on the list. Nobody else of significance from the No camp (yet), so it's not absolute proof, but it may not be the best of signs.
ReplyDeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteWhat tweet are you on about? I looked through Kenny's tweets and there is nothing from today even hinting at the result or movement...not unless he deleted it? Just some info about numbers polled, dates of survey, and that it is out at 9pm.
How likely is it that George Foulkes has some inside info about this poll (as opposed to someone more relevant from that side)?
ReplyDeleteNo one from the Yes campaign has retweeted it?
Xabi
"I looked through Kenny's tweets and there is nothing from today even hinting at the result or movement"
ReplyDeleteThere doesn't need to be. The normal routine (although they may tightened up the embargo recently) is -
1) Farquharson does his "heads up pol peeps" tweet.
2) Someone senior from Yes or No retweets, and you know the direction of travel. Admittedly it's usually someone a bit more senior than Foulkes, but even so. Why would he go out of his way to retweet information about a poll that might turn out to be bad?
It is Foulkes, he might just be pished. :-)
ReplyDeleteI think you are being paranoid about this. It is just Kenny drumming up interest for his paper and the poll they commissioned.
ReplyDeleteI agree Kenny is an obnoxious Unionist troll masquerading as a journalist, but I would give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.
The betting markets have not budged, and if there was information out there to a select few, they would have already.
No, I'm not being paranoid. As I've explained, we've been through this exact same routine a million times before - Farquharson's tweet is almost identical with every poll. The retweets give the game away - the only question is whether Foulkes is in the loop or not.
ReplyDeleteI would agree about Foulkes, I doubt if even anybody on the No side takes him seriously anymore.
ReplyDeleteJames, what about the other polls?
ReplyDeleteDo you expect a swing towards yes or no or should things still be close within margin of error?
@James
ReplyDeleteIt would seem strange that the only senior No campaigner to retweet a positive poll at this point of race is Foulkes.
This is just wild guessing, but it seems to me that perhaps nobody is in the loop.
Xabi
Anon : Yes, unless of course people like McDougall are sticking to a stricter embargo than before, and Foulkes doesn't feel quite so constrained.
ReplyDeleteI think the worst it could be, is no movement upwards for us.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally of all the polls, only the one commissioned by STV could be in any way way said to be commissioned by someone nominally friendly to 'Yes'.
At this stage of the game They will reflect the commissioner's slant and not the voting public's.
Having said that, perhaps I'm being cynical, but they wont favour the 'Yes' vote. Neck and neck is the safest bet for them, so I doubt if there will be major shocks either way. They wont want to look foolish.
In conclusion it will be the Scottish people who'll decide.
Sorry for gabbling.
@James
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps he just thought that Farquharson's tweet was interesting and retweeted it without noticing that it may not be a good poll for them.
:)
Still, what is a good poll for them, though? Last ICM one showed Yes +7 ahead (+8 excl DK). I expect a reversion to the mean. A poll showing Yes 51, No 49 could be spinned as good for both sides, don't you think?
Xabi
Anything showing a Yes lead now couldn't possibly be spun as being good for No, especially after everyone studiously applied toe "Outlier" tag to the last ICM poll.
ReplyDeleteYou cannot be serious? Any YES lead in any of these polls at this stage is amazing news and absolutely disastrous for NO, as they have no time to change a thing.
ReplyDeleteI'd expect an all out personal assault on Salmond and YES voters generally in the papers tomorrow. The ball is away, all that is left is to play the man. The demonisation of YES has already begun in effect due to the antics of a small group of neds in Edinburgh today. That will be spun for all it is worth. A broken nose for a YES supporter is just not newsworthy.
Foulkes very likely on the wind up. Like a few on the yes side
ReplyDeleteI'll eat my shorts if any poll is allowed to show a Yes lead in the time that is left.
ReplyDeleteI think we're at the point where any swing to Yes is good for Yes; any swing to No is good for No; and no change is slightly better for No than Yes as it means they stay ahead, but not much to crow about for either side.
ReplyDeletewhat are the chances of that Dads Army episode eh Brimsy? Compared to the hundreds of others where they were led competently by one of those english chappies like Mainwaring or Jones? :-D
ReplyDeleteJim Sillars was right. There needs to be a Day of Reckoning to shine a very bright beam of light against those who have attempted to undermine the democratic process. I'm totally finished with any London-based media. These people need to explain themselves in a public enquiry. And I'm not the only one saying it by a long way. And that's whether its YES or NO vote
ReplyDeleteHold your nerve everyone...we are going to win this!
ReplyDeleteYou know, I have a "Nation shall speak peace unto nation" t-shirt from my time in the BBC Symohony Chorus. I should have squeezed myself into it on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteHow long did it take Scotland to get over the Poll Tax and start electing Tories again? We are 25 years out and we only have 1 Tory MP. Tories are still toxic.
ReplyDeleteThe media in general and the BBC in particular has completely and utterly lost the trust of at least half the population - the digitally savvy half, which is predominantly younger folks.
That will have a effect on viewer/listener figures for the next 25 years.
Kevin Pringle just retweeted kenny f's tweet....
ReplyDeleteCan we assume that Kevin Pringle qualifies as a senior Yes campaign member? :)
ReplyDeleteXabi
Probably...
ReplyDeleteAmazing scenes in George Square by the way.
Probably...
ReplyDeleteAmazing scenes in George Square by the way.
With 3 polls out in two hours Kevin will perhaps be tweeting about the poll most favourable to yes. The fact scotsman poll is by ICM makes it sound that way.
ReplyDelete3 polls? I thought it was only two from ICM and Survation?
ReplyDeleteJust two this evening, that is correct: ICM at 9 and Survation at 10.30
ReplyDeleteWowza, apparently there is an Opinium poll out at 9.15. That one wasn't expected!
ReplyDeleteHmmmmmm
ReplyDeleteWho comissioned the Opinium poll?
ReplyDeleteGot a link to the Opinium poll announcement?
ReplyDeleteA third poll put in late by BT or Yes Scotland to try and make the other two not seem so bad.
ReplyDeleteExactly what I thought which is why I'm wondering which?
ReplyDeleteOpinium was observer,but I thought it was 2moro night....they have maybe brought it forward.....
ReplyDeleteSurvation leaked as YES 48, No 52.
ReplyDeleteMy wife was just called by Ipsos MORI. She was told it'll be out tomorrow so I guess it'll be the STV one.
ReplyDeleteThere were a couple of demographic questions (sounds like they were short on females under 35), then the main referendum question. After this was the usual demographic stuff like past vote / intention to vote etc. Included was "what do you consider to be your nationality:Scottish/More Scot than Brit/equally Scot+Brit/More Brit than Scot/British/Other" and country of birth.
Also a couple of more interesting questions (paraphrased as she can't remember them precisely):
"Have you ever been registered to vote before this election?"
"Do you use the internet at home for work or leisure"
Sounds like they're trying to get a measure of the missing million.
YESSSSSSS!
ReplyDeleteIn the lead again with ICM, get in there!!!!
Where? Links please :)
ReplyDeleteSo both polls 52/48, then?
ReplyDeletenope were behind, 48/52
ReplyDeleteLOL - you nasty little nats are gunna lose!!
ReplyDeleteThat's what I mean. Survation and ICM both have Yes on 48.
ReplyDeleteNot a wetnat. Not a paid BT troll but, I think it's over folks.
ReplyDeleteWhich is an increase for Yes in both polls, so I dunno what Anon @ 8:57 means about being "back in the lead".
ReplyDeleteIt's Y: 48%, No: 52%. Might not be awesome but it's not bad, specially for a poll commissioned by the Scotsman.
ReplyDeleteConsidering all the media pressure & scare stories that have been featuring for a week or more - being within the margin of error is still a good thing.
Sky news said ICM and Opinion both 48 yes 52 no. Didn't mention Survation.
ReplyDeleteBlanketcase:
ReplyDeleteYou are falling back on the assumption that polling is accurate on a day when we have seen the ICM hedging his bets hugely on thje fear that they may have got this badly wrong.
Oh. Ok. Maybe Survation's still to come, then.
ReplyDeleteRight, I'll stop talking. However, ICM is still a swing to Yes.
It is too close to call. A high turnout and Yes will win it.
ReplyDeleteICM is a big swing to no.
ReplyDeleteThis referendum has become a statistical tie vote within MOE.
ReplyDeleteThe referendum will be won or lost on GOTV.
@Anon
ReplyDeleteOnly compared with their low-sample size, caveats-up-the-wazoo online poll, surely? This is a telephone one.
Just being honest- I think No is going to win, and this obsession with dissecting polls and argue about margins of error is denial. We've lost.
ReplyDelete" Anonymous Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteICM is a big swing to no."
=>
"An ICM poll compiled in August put support for Yes at 45 per cent when undecideds were taken out – indicating that the Yes campaign has gained three percentage points to 48 per cent.
This has been accompanied by a slip of three percentage points for a No vote which has fallen from 55 per cent to 52 per cent over the same period."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-icm-puts-yes-up-to-48-1-3543614
Yes I only meant that online one.
ReplyDeleteIan Baird - I do hope so, but I just don't see it. I think Yes will fall agonisingly short.
ReplyDelete@Anon
ReplyDeleteThose two aren't directly comparable. Even the Scotsman is calling it a swing to Yes!
'No' will be praying for a wet and windy thursday.
ReplyDeleteBlasketcase said...
Not a wetnat. Not a paid BT troll but, I think it's over folks.
An idiot?
The ICM swing from the august poll commissioned by the Scotsman is +3% for Yes and -2% for No
ReplyDeletestill 14% Don't Knows in the raw figures, if just 2% more break for Yes from the DK figure or the new sign up figures and we are home and dusted!
Assuming that these figures are accurate in the first place.
Okay well that's positive. If there's a similar swing in Survation where would that put us?
ReplyDeleteNow, now, Patrick.
ReplyDeleteBlasketcase has spoken!
I'm not an idiot David, I'm just being realistic. I do worry for some of my fellow Yes supporters if it is a No.
ReplyDeleteIf you're a 'Yes' supporter Balasketcase I'm a rabid Scottish Labour MP.
ReplyDeleteStop making stupid assumptions and you might not get the accusations.
Every poll has shown a swing to Yes in the midst of the media frenzy of doom.
ReplyDeleteNO currency, no current apparently according to EDF, nobody will drink Whisky, no trains, no roads, no anything.
And still the Yes vote rises despite the best efforts of the pollsters to prevent it.
whine, whine, whine. What a bunch of victims.
ReplyDeleteWhy don't you accept that if you lose - and it is still in the balance - it is probably because you have utterly failed to answer the currency question.
You have 0 credibility on this when your leader, who said in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck', and who wanted to join the disastrous Euro, which has spread misery across Europe, now demands that Scotland used the pound!
ZERO CREDIBILITY
whine, whine, whine. What a bunch of victims.
ReplyDeleteWhy don't you accept that if you lose - and it is still in the balance - it is probably because you have utterly failed to answer the currency question.
You have 0 credibility on this when your leader, who said in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck', and who wanted to join the disastrous Euro, which has spread misery across Europe, now demands that Scotland used the pound!
ZERO CREDIBILITY
whine, whine, whine. What a bunch of victims.
ReplyDeleteWhy don't you accept that if you lose - and it is still in the balance - it is probably because you have utterly failed to answer the currency question.
You have 0 credibility on this when your leader, who said in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck', and who wanted to join the disastrous Euro, which has spread misery across Europe, now demands that Scotland used the pound!
ZERO CREDIBILITY