ICM poll :
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 48% (-6)
No 52% (+6)
The percentage changes are of course probably highly misleading, because the previous ICM poll does now look like a very obvious outlier. This is the joint second-highest ever Yes vote in an ICM online poll.
New Survation and Opinium polls are also out tonight - full analysis of all three polls will appear HERE.
Is this a phone poll or back to using a panel?
ReplyDeleteAlmost something fishy about that previous outlier - as if they might be laying ground so that if dark Yes springs a surprise, they can grasp the straw of that previous poll and say "we came the closest amongst our competitors." Or is that pure conspiracy theory?
ReplyDeleteBack to using online
ReplyDeleteThat's two with four point lead...if it's like this on the day were screwed :/
ReplyDeleteAlastair, I don't think you're far off the mark- I think if the pollsters settle around 50% they will say to future clients, "we were within 5%" when all's said and done.
ReplyDeleteGetting this wildly wrong would be really bad for the polling industry, maybe its the kick up the arse they need.
I may be repeating myself a lot, but this looks pretty much as a statistical tie. All polls in the last two weeks are basically within margin of error of 50/50, perhaps with a slight advantage for No.
ReplyDeleteThe most surprising thing is the level of agreement among all pollsters.
Xabi
It's as if they can't call it so are going down the middle
ReplyDeleteJames, why are you comparing it with the online ICM? Even the Scotsman is calling it a swing to Yes, in comparison with the last telephone poll.
ReplyDeleteGood poll for Yes, but I'm starting to get concerned that since the YouGov poll (Yes at 51%) took place, Yes has lost its small lead and fallen behind.
ReplyDeleteThey might be converging around a certain value, so are becoming more precise, but they could be converging around a bad number- their methods are being stress tested to destruction here so the errors will be much larger than the size of the difference between the sides.
ReplyDeleteWhat a truly weird post at 9.11pm, "If you don't have enough votes you lose"?
ReplyDeleteIf the Survation poll is confirmed then we have more movement to YES.
ReplyDeleteIt is to close to call. I big turnout will swing it for Yes.
Yes FitzyMan, I think it was inevitable that there would be a hit to Yes after the financial wobbles at the end of last week. In this final push the question we must press is whether fear and money are to triumph over hope and justice.
ReplyDeleteLet's face it: to win this there'll have to be a logistical effort on the day. This is a total tie.
ReplyDeleteXabi
@ Scott
ReplyDeleteCare to elaborate in more detail?
If there's anything consistent and we are calling the last ICM an outlier...it's a small lead for No again and again...can't believe this :/
ReplyDeleteThe swings back and forth of a percent here and there are totally meaningless- when the error in the poll is probably of the order of 6 or even 10%, obsessing about a swing of 1 % is like worrying about the colour of the hammer someone is hitting you with.
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I am wrong but this ICM Poll and the last ICM Poll are different polls. One was an internet panel and the other was a telephone poll.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see the internals and what percentage of the undecideds are swinging to YES.
Regardless the referendum has become a statistical TIE.
We know that even though 90% of eligible have registered to vote, actual percentage will be less.
Whoever physically gets their voters to the polls will win. This is classic GOTV which has been used by the Democrats in the USA for decades.
@ Scott
ReplyDeleteDo you think it's possible that Yes could be ahead by that sort of percentage?
@Fitzyman
ReplyDeleteThe only certainty here is that every poll is wrong. By how much, well we don't know, but 3% error is a laughable claim from the pollsters given that refers only to "sampling error", they simply have no idea how much error is in their published data which in reality arises at every single stage of the polling procedure (resulting in systematic error)- because get this, they have no idea what the "true" value is.
My line of work involves modelling of certain environmental realities using computer simulations, sometimes our results are "right" but we have no idea why- i.e. what part of the process made our result "right". The pollsters are in a similar position- they're trying to "model" an outcome which is too complex for the tools they have at their disposal- and none of them are telling you that.
@Fitzyman
ReplyDeleteyes for sure, if Yes is at say, 48 plus or minus 5% (it could be much more), and the same uncertainty for the No vote, there are plenty of scenarios within that range where Yes could be ahead.
@ Scott
ReplyDeleteThanks for getting back to me on this, I appreciate it.
"Is this a phone poll or back to using a panel?"
ReplyDeleteIgnore my original comment (above.
They were both online polls, it's just that the last ICM, the one with a sample of 705, was part of a UK-wide poll.
It was Survation that did the out-of-the-blue telephone poll.
This is all getting very confusing.
@Fitzyman
ReplyDeleteno problem, I guess what I would say is treat the polls with huge caution, but also that what I would look for is signs of large shifts- I'd argue there has definitely been evidence of that to Yes in the past few weeks, shifts of 1% are meaningless in the context of 5, 6, even 10% errors.
Final Yes Surge needed.
ReplyDeleteWe can do it.
Chest dip over the finish line!
@ Scott
ReplyDeleteSo are you saying that there is the possibility that polls that show significant shifts away from average estimates made by other polls could potentially be more accurate?
@Fitzyman
ReplyDeleteNo I don't think so- there's simply no way to know. The only way the pollsters could tell you whether they were accurate at any given point was if they could tell you the actual value..... there's no way for them to do that.
What I meant was, taking the group of polling companies as a whole, if they, as a group, have shown a shift to Yes over the past few week then that might mean something. But be aware if there's anything inherent in ALL of their methodologies that would favour/harm one side or the other, well the entire group could be wrong. Say not being able to contact people without either a landline or a PC for instance.
If you lose - and I accept that it is still in the balance - it is due to the fact that you have zero credibility on the currency.
ReplyDeleteYour leader is a man who claimed in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck,' and who backed the disastrous Euro, which has caused misery around Europe, but who now says with a straight face that Scotland has to adopt the pound.
He and YES have ZERO xredibility on the currency.
This poll has been fixed to favour the NO campaign. Wouldn't believe ANY of the BPC polling. Would like to see data tables. A little tweak to the weightings in one or two areas an Le voila!
ReplyDeleteThis poll has been fixed to favour the NO campaign. Wouldn't believe ANY of the BPC polling. Would like to see data tables. A little tweak to the weightings in one or two areas an Le voila!
ReplyDelete(Pressed wrong button before)