A few of you might have seen me on the BBC Breakfast show this morning - I took part in a little five-minute slot with Duncan Hothersall. Since I started writing this blog a few years ago, I've been contacted four or five times about the possibility of going on TV or radio (two of those were from Argentina!), but it never led to anything. So it was a bit of a shock to my system to actually find myself on UK-wide television, trying to put the case for Yes just three days before the referendum, and up against an "opponent" who is a seasoned political activist and a very professional speaker. Just to make it even scarier, Duncan had Kezia Dugdale MSP with him - I'm not sure where my support staff had disappeared to! I'm happy to report that both Duncan and Kezia are very friendly in real life, and it's just as well I recognised Duncan from his photo, otherwise I'm not sure I'd have ever found the right place.
Ah well, I did my best - and you know you've temporarily hit the big time when Caron Lindsay is complaining about you being part of an "all-male panel" on the BBC! (It's a perfectly fair point, of course, but not my fault.) Unfortunately, I can't provide a link, because the Breakfast show isn't on the iPlayer.
Brillaint stuff James. Saw a few facebook updates mentioning you had been on and had done very well. I am sure a clip will appear at some point. You can rewind the live bbc news stream, but not sure how far back you can go.
ReplyDeleteI assume we are expecting a couple of polls tonight and a couple tomorrow evening and then that will be us before the momentous day. From memory releasing a poll on the morning of the referendum is not the done thing and I know the BBC and STV have an embargo on reporting on opinion polling from midnight on wednesday until the polls close. Can't believe it is all so close now - excited much!
Is there any clue about any remaning polls (apart from STV's Ipsos-MORI on the referendum's eve)?
ReplyDeleteXabi
I thought there is to be 4 on Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteI bever saw it, in any case I'm sure you did a good job; your video on the polls is top notch broadcast quality - impressive.
ReplyDeleteDrunken Hovercraft may be seasoned but he's still a moron. A sad Scotland hating moron. A cretin who wouldn't tell the truth if his own mother got down on her knees and begged. I really can't stand creatures like him.
ReplyDeleteAnybody appearing on TV with the No mob should ask why they are joined with racists, bigots and fascists.
And if Kezia Dogface is one of them then she must be asked why it was fine for her to post hate speech online but not for ordinary citizens to air their views. Fifi La Bon Bon deserves to be exposed to the wider population.
Drunken Hovercraft may be seasoned but he's still a moron. A sad Scotland hating moron. A cretin who wouldn't tell the truth if his own mother got down on her knees and begged. I really can't stand creatures like him.
ReplyDeleteAnybody appearing on TV with the No mob should ask why they are joined with racists, bigots and fascists.
And if Kezia Dogface is one of them then she must be asked why it was fine for her to post hate speech online but not for ordinary citizens to air their views. Fifi La Bon Bon deserves to be exposed to the wider population.
Well done James. You came over well I thought and you deserve the recognition after all the effort you have put in with this site. Regardless of the result you can be very proud of what you've done here.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteDrunken Hovercraft may etct etc
I'm not surprised you are anonymous. You don't do the Yes campaign any favours with this kind inflammatory language.
@Ian
ReplyDeleteIndeed. We don't actually know that's a genuine Yesser, of course, but this campaign has certainly brought out a greater-than-usual number of objectionable and thick people on both sides.
So when are the next polls coming out? Do we know?
ReplyDeleteSaw you this morning on Breakfast. Well done, far more professional than Hothershall. They've all had the same briefing today, trying to whip up hysteria about "mobs" on the street. You did well to point up just how ridiculous he was being. Nice one! Three days to go and all they've got left is smears..
ReplyDeleteGot polled on my doorstep by TNS in Aberdeen on Saturday . Guy said the poll would be out on Sunday (which it wasnt')and also said it looked like definitely being a yes vote majority.
ReplyDeleteStick it up your arse. People who have dedicated their lives to spreading lies should be exposed.
ReplyDeleteAre you denying that Kezia Dogbreath was Fifi La Bon Bon? That she was Lord Foulkes creature? That the man who invented Cybernats ran his own internet smear mob?
Allowing people to lie unopposed gives absolute power to the likes of Whelan, Campbell and McTernan. They must be fought head on and destroyed.
If you don't like it then tough. I refuse to let them get away with it but you do? Just another concern troll.
There's a poll due out from TNS at 5pm on Tuesday so maybe it's that one.
ReplyDeleteI'd be surprised if a single doorstepper had any idea regarding the overall picture as the survey was in progress.
@Anon at 2:11
ReplyDeleteEven if they did, it seems rather unprofessional to divulge that information to an interviewee!
You'd be surprised if someone going round doors that works for TNS had an idea about the vote!?
ReplyDeleteYou do know TNS are a polling company, I'd hope they would have an idea of what way the vote is going!
Arse flapping Keaton?
ReplyDeletetick tock
I have literally no idea what that post is supposed to mean.
ReplyDeleteJust completed another Panelbase Poll today. Two new questions in it - how are family and friends voting and whether we should retain the Present Monarch, have a New Monarch or become a Republic with no Monarch. The answer to the monarchy question will be interesting.
ReplyDeleteFlockers said...
ReplyDelete"Well done James. You came over well I thought and you deserve the recognition after all the effort you have put in with this site. Regardless of the result you can be very proud of what you've done here."
Seconded. It's been interesting to see this blog go from 3 comments per thread to sometimes more than a hundred.
Hugh.
Teri
ReplyDeleteInclusion of the monarchy Q smells like a feeble distraction from the big question. Hope most say keep it, adding "for now" under their breath. If the poll shows the yesward climb we can all see around us, the mails & expresses etc will leap at the chance to headline an anti royal stat instead. And maybe sway a few poor souls who don't get out much. Sad but true. Desperate stuff.
Just did a Yougov iref survey with various related Q's bolted on. Similar to recent ones.
ReplyDeleteLooks like for the Sun / Sunday times.
Question
ReplyDeleteIf the pollsters are truly picking up the people who are newly registered/did not vote in 2011....then why is there not 500 people who did not vote in 2011 being polled according to this?
Maximum turnout = 97%
Turnout in 2011 = 50%
That is nearly 50% that did not vote in 2011.
chalks
ReplyDeleteNot quite, 97% is the % percentage of the adults entitled to vote who are registered. Once that's done the maximum turnout is 100% (of the registered electorate). Except that because of deaths, people moving in practice the roll is @95% accurate.
50% was exactly half so if we get 85% it will be 35% more in percentage terms but because the electorate is larger now it will more than that in actual numbers voting.
Thanks Ian, so I presume then, that it is very hard for a polling company to determine the right weighting of non 2011 voters then?
ReplyDeleteChalks
ReplyDeleteWell, I imagine so but I think James and others are more qualified to answer that than I am.
Anon at 4.38 : That's yet another of these "iron law" type articles that keep popping up. You'd think people might have learned their lesson by now, because whether it's a Yes or No, past comments along those lines by Peter Kellner and Nate Silver are already looking pretty silly. If you'd believed them, the swing to Yes over the last few weeks should have been absolutely impossible, because the Don't Knows were supposed to be breaking for No.
ReplyDeleteIt's quite possible that the Yes vote will be lower than the polls suggest, but if so that won't be because of any "iron law". This is an almost unique referendum due to the level of public engagement - how can anyone seriously compare it to the AV referendum, for example?
James,
ReplyDeleteAgreed, I was pretty sceptical about this article as well for much the same reasons as you. Thanks for the speedy reply.
Is there transparency as to what polls we can expect between now and Thursday? Is anything coming along tonight?
I don't think there is a particularly soft edge to the Yes vote this time out, if only becuase the adverserial nature of the opposition to the concept forces folk to go through a journey to get to Yes, they become hardened to threats thrown at them, once you are 'yes' very few folk, I'd think would fall backaways. The fact that the swing to yes has been largely uniform with no significant swing to no at any point and given the fact it looks very much like the yes vote held up last week in the face of the British state's onslaught, I think that you won't see a lot of wavering on the day, at least, not on the Yes side.
ReplyDeleteDid a YouGov this morning. One of the questions towards the end of the survey was'Do you think you there should be a referendum on whether to accept the terms negotiated after a 'Yes' vote?' (I paraphrase)
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately they didn't supply a 'fuck off' box to tick, so I ticked the 'full steam ahead...no matter what' box.
I would back that up JM. A decision like this uses both sides of the brain. At one stage in the process, people convince themselves that they have chosen correctly using their deductive powers. Once crossing that rubicon their emotional brain kicks in and seals the deal. I am happy with my decision etc.
ReplyDeleteNo amount of adverse comment can remove them from that position other than a game changer and that works for both sides.
However, as I see it, the arguments presented by the 'Yes' side are so much stronger than the better together meme that it is almost impossible to knock them into the other court.
The campaign on the ground is running at full speed so no time for anything other than a quick post.
ReplyDeleteCongrats James! Sorry I didn't catch it but you'll understand why.
"when Caron Lindsay is complaining about you being part of an "all-male panel" on the BBC!"
Well we all know how seriously Clegg's amusing ostrich faction should be taken on that after Lord Rennard was welcomed back into their party.
The yellow tory leadership joke, sorry, leadership tip, Carmicheal is making a twat of himself today I see.
Let me point out the obvious to the idiots and twits yet again, EVERYONE in scotland knows a Yes supporter through family, friends or workmates. So cretinous smears and lies about Yes supporters will be taken as seriously as anything else coming out of the No campaign still in full hysterical omnipanic.
I see the comedy fop Cameron is back telling us we've never had it so good yet still promising 'jam tomorrow'. I'm sure an out of touch twit of a tory PM is going to be listened to eagerly and clearly trusted by undecided labour voters in scotland.
LOL
Really hope DC's speech and the effects of last week doesn't push the waverer's towards no through blackmail.
ReplyDeleteI really believe we can do it and vote yes, but I'm getting more and more worried we'll be short.
"Really hope DC's speech and the effects of last week doesn't push the waverer's towards no"
ReplyDeleteYeah, we in the campaign are REAL worried about the cowardly Cameron swinging it for No.
*chortle*
If Hugh's around, you might be interested to know that whichever moderator told you (or implied) that I am no longer blocked from posting at PB was lying through their teeth. I'm sure we'll all faint with amazement at that one.
ReplyDeleteWord is that a lot of pollsters are publishing their final polls tomorrow & Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteDo you folks expect any last minute changes (like yes or no campaigns being clearly ahead) in these polls or will it all be pretty much to play for?
James,
ReplyDeleteI know many people (including myself) has asked this many times, but do you know if there is any new poll coming out tonight?
I come here every 20 minutes to check. Please, set me free from this! :-)
Best,
Xabi
Xabi, I don't know! That Survation phone poll came completely out of the (Tory) blue on Saturday, so it's probably best to expect a poll when you least expect it. I vaguely remember seeing something last week about an ICM poll in the Scotsman that was due tonight, but I haven't seen anything more about that, so I'm dubious.
ReplyDeleteI think it will still be same as in the polls, but if there was a time for YES to be ahead it would be now. It would really rally all YES supporters and enthuse them even more as we head towards the line. The NO recriminations would start early, especially from MP's down south who are currently biting their tongues. It would create incredible sense of moment for the last few days.
ReplyDeleteSo I'd love to be ahead in the last polls, but realistically given the hammering we have taken from most of the media the last week or so I'd be delighted to go the polls within the margin of error. I believe in the people of Scotland. When it comes down to it we are a nation of dreamers, and we can embrace those dreams for a better Scotland by voting YES on Thursday.
Thanks a lot for the answer. It seems I'll stick around. :)
ReplyDeleteXabi
Someone give poor Dave a hug, he looks like he is on the verge of a breakdown.
ReplyDeleteI think we can be fairly sure from the lack of chatter that there will be no new polls this evening, but tomorrow to Wednesday evening will be absolutely manic!
ReplyDeleteThere are few things more annoying than people going "Ochone! He said fuck on the internet, Millions will now vote NO!Woe, woe and thrice woe!!!!"
ReplyDeleteWALOFS to the lot of you!
I am a poll junkie and just discovered this blog. I am a Scot, raised in the US, British Citizen now living in England.
ReplyDeleteI worked with the 2000 Bush campaign in polling. Regret all that now.....
Most will be glad to hear that I am a Nat and have been one of the few SNP members south of the border.
Can anyone comment on the ability of the SNP to turn out the vote in the ground game on Thursday.
In looking at polling and prior election data it does look like the SNP can add another three percent with get out the vote.
@George
ReplyDeleteAttended a Yes Scotland 'get the vote out' meeting for volunteers here in Dundee on Sunday evening. Standing room only in the hall.
You can assume this is being replicated all over Scotland.
I'm not sure how 'SNP' this is as I'm not SNP and this is my first campaign. Heard about it on social media and signed up via email.
We will get the vote out.
@George
ReplyDeleteI've just had a card through the door form Yes Scotland one for each voter in the house. I spoke to the chap who delivered it and they are asking everyone to hand the card to the yes rep at the polling station. If you don't hand it in they will send someone around to your door to remind you to vote.
First time I've seen this in any political campaign and assuming its part of a national picture I think it would answer your question.
Don't know if the no camp are doing something similar or relying on traditional methods which I don't think will cope given the volume of voters.
Those are redding cards. They're very labour intensive and can only be used where you have good, recent canvass data. They're helpful as regards getting out the vote and I'm encouraged to hear some areas are using them.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be universal, as not all areas are so well-resourced. However it will be the high-Yes areas that will be doing it, so hopefully bang for buck.
I was also at Dundee GOTV meeting, well impressed by enthusiasm and organisation.
ReplyDeleteIf this is bring replicated all over the country then we will do very well.
Yeah certainly where I live, which is very very middle class, we haven't had a YES canvasser at the door the whole referendum, though we get leaflets through the door regularly, including today. Even from NO, where we would be seen as a core area, we have only been canvassed once, and that was in February. I wonder how many other little middle class dormitory villages are like this? Where YES don't see the point in wasting precious canvassing time as we are not the main target demographic and NO just take their vote for granted.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a good idea from YES. I always remember a previous Scottish election when we had a very exhausted young guy at the door at 9pm checking we had voted. He seemed very worried because clearly the vote was looking very tight and was rushing round checking off people from his list. Getting the vote out on the day will be massive and I believe the army of YES people will make a difference. BT don't have the numbers or organisation or good will that we do on the ground. Has to be worth a few extra votes, if not a lot more! But the coverage will not be even. YES canvassing has been very targeted indeed. I have done quite a bit myself, and when I suggested doing some of the middle class areas the local organiser who controlled the inputting of canvas returns and printing out of electoral register etc. was just not interested in these areas.
This is going to be one of the interesting factors. Both sides have done a lot of canvassing, but often in very different areas. How this plans out will be fascinating.
Is it likely Yes is ahead at this point? I assumed that it would be about 51-53% (excluding DKs) at this point. I really can't see how it's lost any substantial momentum since the YouGov 51% poll on September 6th.
ReplyDeleteLaukat/Muscleguy..others;
ReplyDeleteThanks for that update. In some ways that resembles the GOTV used by the US Democrat Party especially and beginning with James Carville for Bill Clinton.
I have been trying to draw some conclusions by using US GOTV experience along with historical voting data in Scotland. I know its dangerous to mix data and experiences from across the pond.
But I tend to think there might be a 3% advantage to the YES camp.
Oh, I stand rightfully corrected that this is not a sole SNP effort, it is indeed cross party and with many not affiliated with a party.
On Independence myself and the family all gain automatic Scottish Citizenship for which I am thankful.
What amazes me is that so many are frightened from this great opportunity!! And I mean a great opportunity for BOTH Scotland and the rUK. I can only hope that people see through the ridiculous lies that are being bandied about on border checks and a depression!!
There is a US expression called "jumping the shark" which you need to look up on Wikipedia. Needless to say, I think BT has jumped the shark.
Thanks for your updates and my best wishes for your work in the next few days.
Being the poll and GOTV junkie....
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know if the "did not vote in 2011 election" numbers used in polling for 2014 is primarily C2DE social grade?
Is the current GOTV focused on C2DE?
What is the problem with ABC1 voters? Are they just afraid of the future?
My family left Scotland as C2DE and I came back (England) as ABC1. With the oil reserves as a back stop, I just can not understand why anyone would be so fearful.
Are people at least scratching their heads and asking "why are Westminster politicians and bankrupt bankers so intent on pushing a NO vote?"
To be honest, one year ago the talk on this side of the border was that Scotland was such a drain on the welfare budget and the torries would have a majority if not for Scotland. Based on that I thought they would be waving goodbye.....
Something does not make sense or should I say it smells like an old newspaper used to wrap fish.
Work at panel base, word in office is No down to 41% not good!
ReplyDeleteSorry I meant Yes!! Not good at all
ReplyDelete41% for Yes? Sounds convincing...
ReplyDeleteYes, well I suppose there's a thousand to one chance that our anonymous friend really does work at Panelbase, but forgive our scepticism.
ReplyDeleteBut seriously, is there any realistic margin we can predict Yes being at right now? I would have assumed 51-53%.
ReplyDeleteHAHAHA the only person who works at panelbase but who can't spell it properly, and we are expected to beliebe you are surreptitiously slipping us confidential information.
ReplyDeleteSounds very credible. Yes down 8% in a few days...I will believe that when I see it. I will run through my village naked at midday on friday singing "The only way is up" if yes fails to poll at least 47%....
Desperate desperate trolling.
In reply to the question of was the canvassing cards being used in Yes friendly areas.
ReplyDeleteI stay in what I can best term as a traditional Tory area on the outskirts of Glasgow not Yes heartland. My Father has had the same card and he stays next to the Faslane Naval base (his house isn't easy to get to). This again is not what you would call traditional Yes areas.
I would think that if yes have the manpower to do this across Scotland it probably gives a very good pictures of overall levels of support and commitment as well as indication of how they will get out their vote.
Be interested to hear from No campaigners how they intend to get their vote out? Also interested to hear from Yes supporters in Dundee etc on if Yes is doing the same approach in what are perceived to be Yes strongholds?
We're not doing it in the Borders because we simply don't have the resources. But I'm greatly encouraged to hear that other areas are doing it.
ReplyDeleteBBC Breakfast bit with James: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5k9g9Nwvw0
ReplyDeleteThanks anonymous.
ReplyDeleteJames, if that was your first time on the telly, you did extremely well!