The referendum polling drought will be abruptly broken at 10pm tonight, when new numbers from YouGov (the pollster notorious for adjusting their results with the No-friendly "Kellner Correction") are released. If a tweet from Nick Robinson and a comment in Brian Taylor's blog are anything to go by, they'll show a further narrowing of the gap - and that's absolutely massive news, because the last YouGov poll already showed a record high for Yes of 43% among the whole sample, and of 44% among definite voters. And it gets even better - our old friend Laurence Janta-Lipinski has been dropping broad hints on Twitter that the shift is significant, so there could well be an increase in the Yes vote of more than 1%. If so, we're getting into territory that would be consistent with a dead heat or a small Yes lead with the more Yes-friendly pollsters.
Stay tuned...
I hope you're right James!
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Out with the usual Monday pensioner crowd (a day off campaigning). At the start of the Referendum campaign I was the solitary Yes out of 6 oldies. Today it is now 4 Yes and 2 No. 2 Yes already voted by post.
ReplyDeleteAh, but that'll be partly your good influence, Marcia!
ReplyDeleteOn a slight tangent, how come journalists are allowed to drop hints on Twitter about upcoming polls anyway? Does an embargo just mean that they can't report the exact figures?
ReplyDeleterumours on twitter of Yougov: NO 53 - 47 YES, that would be a 12 point swing to YES in a month!
ReplyDeleteWell, the client gets to decide how strict the embargo is. In this case the client is the Sun, so Kevin Schofield can say what he likes.
ReplyDeleteExcellent Marcia.
ReplyDeleteI think we're all seeing bounces like that from previous No voters.
Think this YG poll is going to be a tremendous one for Yes. Nick Robinson has tweeted he's interviewing Eck tomorrow and thinks he'll be smiling from ear to ear and having a dram.
Whilst George Eaton of the Statesman has said it's 6pts between No and Yes.
So I'm guessing 47-53 without dinnae kens.
MMmm
A six-point deficit with YouGov would be pretty earth-shaking...
ReplyDeleteKeaton : Yes, I'm still pondering which adjective to use for my headline. I've almost run out of them...
ReplyDeleteIf it is down to 6 pc then this will give a really good boost to the Yes side and to the Yes leaning undecideds.
ReplyDeleteThe No side enjoyed a huge lead in the Kellner polls not so long ago.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
ReplyDeleteYouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30
The Yes campaign has been brilliant.
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame you guys are persona non grata on PB. I've been trying to tell them but they're not interested.
I'm still No, on balance, but by Christ will a Yes vote shake things up! Properly, rather than a piddling racist voting for UKIP because they think they're "sticking it to the establishment".
Well done, keep going.
Hugh
Curtice squeezed his poll of polls out then retracting it, he's probably still careering round the office in a daze.
ReplyDeleteI did a YouGov poll at the weekend which asked what I had voted in 2011 HR but not Euros 2014, so presumably no Kellner Correction. Hope this is it.
ReplyDeleteBetty : The Kellner Correction isn't based on the Euro results, and they don't need to ask for your vote recall anyway - they know how you voted from previous polls, or from answers you gave when you signed up. The Correction has definitely been applied, because Janta-Lipinski confirmed no change in methodology. For the avoidance of doubt, that makes this poll even better for Yes!
ReplyDeleteIt does, James! That was my first thought as well! Whatever the result is - it's actually better than this because of the correction.
ReplyDeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteHow about "The Joy of Six"?
Really want to see the figures now... Is it due out at ten?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/thesunnewspaper/status/506539447673188352
ReplyDeleteIt's official, gap down to 6
We still have to keep plugging away up until the time the polls close on the 18th.
ReplyDeleteRumblings from certain sources tonight YouGov is 46/54."The cat will be well and truly amongst the pigeons, would like to be around Alistair Darling tomorrow" was the quote from my source, who also asserts the Tories are "incandescent" with Darling, especially post the public slaughtering at the Glasgow Kelvingrove BBC debate from Alex Salmond, but apparently they've been unhappy with him since the turn of the year (the un-published poll) My "source" recons the Tories are possibly preparing to oust the Labour deadwood front men as early as this week and run the full operation themselves, both public front and back room. Allegedly the Tories wanted AD replaced by Douglas Alexander or 2nd choice allegedly Anis Sawar, supposedly this altercation took place at Easter but it was kiboshed by Labour up here who wanted to keep AD at the helm (supposedly!!!!!)
ReplyDeleteI notice PB's old Tory Tantrum Technicians are suggesting its 47/53?????
One thing can be almost assured, it is a significant poll for Yes, the point where the pollsters results start to converge, and with m.o.e of +/-3%, we are in 50/50 territory with 2.5 weeks to go.
All one way now my friends,and the tide is coming in fast!
SK