Monday, June 1, 2009

YouGov : SNP maintain narrow lead

The Scottish sub-sample of the latest YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph shows all of the four main parties slipping slightly, with the minor parties gaining as a result. Here are the full figures -

SNP 29% (-1)
Labour 26% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
Others 15% (+9)

This is the fourth YouGov sub-sample in a row that has shown the SNP in the lead for Westminster - and just for once it can be taken reasonably seriously, given that the unweighted sample size is no less than 547! Of course, the rise of the 'others' is due to the unusual exposure they are receiving in the run-up to the European Parliament elections on Thursday. The Scottish breakdown for that election is as follows -

SNP 29%
Labour 24%
Liberal Democrats 13%
Conservatives 13%
Greens 7%
BNP 4%
SSP 1%
Jury Team 1%
Others 2%

By my reckoning, that would result in two seats for the SNP, two for Labour, one for the Tories and one for the Lib Dems. So a little disappointment for the SNP there - although personally I've always felt they were likely to fall short of the third seat. The most important thing is to claim victory in the popular vote for only the second time in history in any sort of national election.


  1. I a not a big fan of Scottish sub polls extracted from UK ones, but the apparent inabilty of the SNP to put clear tartan water between itself and nulab, given the comnrades' current predicaments on near all front is concernng

    And whilst I hope the reality at the ballot box proves theswe polls wrong, just look at the resiliance of that Scottish labour vote in current circumsatnces - a solid 25% despite it all: Sadly, the size of "the payroll" in Scotland. A big problem for any party or cause that wants to braek labourism in our land

    But break it we must

    My take on this? - for later, not this week - is "break that payroll, destroy it" - dinna cosy up to it, wahtver the short tersm attarction of some cosy quotes from Harry McGugan and co at COSLA or the PCS.... " Social Democray" Scottish labour style - our nation's curse, the dead hand and an expensive dead hand. Dont let ir seduce the nats, the liberation movement

    All hands to the pumps for Thursday! ...but ironically it is England that might deliver the crucial and fatal blows....

    ....for England and St George!!!!

    ,,,for Scotland and StAndrew!

  2. I might half-agree with you this time - 29% for the SNP in these unique circumstances is a bit disappointing. But the Labour position is absolutely dire - even in 1983 they got 36% of the vote in Scotland. They're surely heading towards a historic low when the votes are counted on Sunday night.