Tuesday, June 2, 2009

ComRes : Labour regain lead

Given that the pollster that in recent months has been the most unfavourable to the SNP (YouGov) has just shown them ahead for the fourth time in a row, it's somewhat ironic that the latest ComRes sub-sample shows Labour back in a comfortable lead, with the SNP slumping to just 23%. Here are the full figures -

Labour 32% (+13)
SNP 23% (-7)
Conservatives 12% (-14)
Greens 11% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-6)
Others 12% (+5)

On this occasion, however, I feel confident in saying that the YouGov sub-sample showing the SNP in a narrow lead can be taken more seriously, given that the sample size was literally ten times greater. One unmistakable trend this poll does confirm, however, is the march of the Greens and the other minor parties, undoubtedly assisted by the expenses scandal, and the exposure afforded by the European elections on Thursday.


  1. Id take none of these sub polls seriously - how can you given the scale of the varyation - across and within polls?

    I wont bang on about this but sub polls are pretty much worse than useless. Just look at the figs!

    i apprecite you efforts posting these figs - but only a few days before we know for real

    You'd be better just going on Priness street for an hour and randomly stopping 200 people. It would be a scientific. Indeed reckon more accurate - a bigger sample!

  2. Alan, I think I get the message (in fact I got it months ago) - you don't like sub-samples! We'll have to agree to differ though, because my own experience has been that if you look at the pattern of sub-samples over a period of time you do get a reasonably accurate idea of what's going on. And just to reiterate, the YouGov poll yesterday had an absolutely enormous sample-size, so the Scottish breakdown certainly can be treated with a degree of seriousness.