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More polling reassurance for SNP as by-elections approach, while Greens reclaim second place GB-wide
Greens almost draw level with Labour in GB-wide YouGov poll, SNP have double-digit lead in Scotland
Newly-elected Scottish Parliament decides by 72 votes to 55 to hold an independence referendum
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Key point which needs refutation or expansion:
ReplyDelete"Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said that voters who backed Scottish independence were continuing to switch to Labour.
'Whereas at the end of 2022, shortly before Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, 80 per cent of current "yes" supporters were saying that they would vote SNP in a UK general election, now that figure has fallen to a new low of just 63 per cent,' he told the newspaper."
As much as the general "deplorables" narrative denies it, polls have shown consistently that some Yessers have switched to Reform. There is, evidently, such a thing as a right wing / anti-immigration independence vote. I saw analysis before the election that Reform's vote consisted of former Tories, SNP then Labour voters in that order. It's a raw numbers game: there's a lot more recent SNP voters to pull from than there are beleaguered Labour's.
DeleteAs for why the Prof. says Labour were picking up the SNP's losses, though, I've no idea. Proportionally, Labour did lose less of its vote than the SNP just did in the election, but who in their right mind was fleeing to Starmer's sinking ship?
Very broadly speaking this will be the anti establishment vote. The SNP's longevity as Scotland's most popular political party is largely from it's chosen stance as a party of opposition, challenging the status quo.
DeleteNow there's a fresh new party to fill that role, who aren't mired with the baggage of 20 odd years in power it's not surprising that a few have drifted to Reform.
For some, it's got nothing to do with policies, just rage against the machine.
It's highly likely that in 2029 Scotland will be controlled by a fascist government in Westminster, but you know, :SNP bad' !
DeleteWhen Lulu won the Eurovision, she never imagined that Radovan Karadzic would be condemned as a war criminal.
ReplyDeleteWhat about when ABBA won?
DeleteIf doubt remains as to the origin of the embezzled funds, that’s partly because Short money isn’t audited in any manner.
ReplyDeleteAny audit (by the Electoral Commission) would be quantitative rather than qualitative. You don’t need AI to fabricate a policy paper. The plan for reconstruction of post invasion Iraq was jokingly referred to as the Iraq, Marshal Plan. It only emerged later that it actually was the Marshal Plan, and the people responsible for generating it were too lazy or stupid to replace reference to the Reichsmark with the Iraqi dinar. Policy papers can be counterfeit by application of simple cut ‘n’ paste.
The whole process of allocation of Short money is flawed. Under the vagaries of FPTP, for the sake of a couple of percentage points, the SNP had their Short money halved at the last election.
The sums involved in Short money can be substantial (when the SNP had 50 MPs). Do you really need that amount to formulate policy at a strategic level? You may need it to finesse policy at an implication level, but the data required isn’t necessarily available.
Best to remove all implied linkage between Short money and research and policy development. Let the parties decide how it’s spent and if that means political campaigning, so be it.
Let the public decide. In the current atmosphere where politicians are at best mistrusted, Short money would be eradicated. Somewhat of a delusory economy when the State can blow £100 billion plus on a glorified electric sprinter train from London to Birmingham, but it may give the public some satisfaction to deprive the politicians of their slush fund.
All of the above applies to a Unionist party. For a party espousing independence from the British state, Short money runs the risk of being the bait to the dependency trap.
The reason short money exists is to counter-weight the governing party's ability to sell their influence. It was very amusing to see the Tories send Jeremy Hunt to the BBC on Sunday to comment on the embezzlement scandal.
DeleteA man who was Chancellor. Who was once the richest member of May's cabinet. The fifth richest MP during the 2019 term. I know it's whataboutism bait, but come on lol
Yeah but, Yeah but Scotland hates the SNP the English have been telling us for 20 years, isn't that true? surely the English wouldn't lie would they?
ReplyDeleteSTEWpendous!
ReplyDelete6 years ago I posted on SGP that efforts were being made to sweep under the carpet the wrong doings of Sturgeon's gang. I also stated that there was so much wrongdoing it was creating a big lump under the carpet that would continually be tripped over and eventually somebody would look under the carpet.
ReplyDeleteJohn the Redactor did his best over years to cover up for Sturgeon but now he is doing his best to clean up the mess Sturgeon left. As Cherry said this morning:- " John Swinney is there to sweep Nicola Sturgeon's mess under the carpet. He has got a big brush and dustpan and that's what he is doing." Guess I will now refer to Swinney as John the Cleaner.
Sadly for John the Cleaner and Scottish Independence more of the mess under the carpet is still to be revealed.
You are a very original thinker. Why haven't you been asked to run the world?
DeleteAre John the Redactor, John Swinney and John the Cleaner three different people?
DeleteLet's hope so.
DeleteSome of your best work Idiot for Scotland. You should be a torchbearer for slip on shoes. Are you?
Delete5.20pm pity Swinney won’t sweep up trash like you and brush you under a carpet.
DeleteShould the metropolitan Police in England now undertake investigations into the financial dealings of of the parties registered in London? After all we know the tories and reform had dodgy connections with Russian oligarchs and billionaires in the Middle East. Even former tory heid yins used to hire themselves out for Tennis matches and such things. The corrupt House of Lords has shown time after time the financial shenanigans of the lords and ladies as well as the corrupt going ons around covid with the awarding of contracts to friends and sidekicks. Labour aren’t immune and the financial dealings of Trades unionists using the funds of the members to curry favour. If they have nothing to hide they should welcome such forensic investigation to confirm they are compliant.
ReplyDeleteMcAlpine is a famous toker. Who knows what rabbit holes he goes down.
ReplyDeleteHe's a buddy of Campbell, who pulls the strings.
DeleteScottish Skier continues his trip around his fantasy land and the Big Dug gives him a platform to let him tell us where he is. Currently, he tells us that in his fantasy land the SNP finances were NOT under investigation. That's right NOT under investigation for all these years where Skier previously said the Polis WERE investigating the SNP finances.
ReplyDeleteSo when the Polis RAIDED the SNP headquarters and confiscated many boxes of SNP papers. It was only a smoke screen says Skier from his fantasy land.
Incredible that even one person believes the deranged nonsense Skier posts.
IFS speaking his Tory bosses propaganda or is it reform bigotry, who knows? Who cares? He lives in a vacuum of unionism!!!
ReplyDeleteDid he upset you Skier by telling the truth about you.
DeleteYour view in respect of what is posted on The Big Dugs site and by whom is never based on reality. Keep on taking the tablets
ReplyDeleteAll right IFS !
DeleteSNP need to get off the defensive.
ReplyDeleteThey and all of us are the victims of this scandal.
Let's be more bullish.
James
ReplyDeleteI actually agree with you on many things but I think your characterisation of mcalpine's view isnt totally fair.
I'm genuinely glad the SNP won the election. There is zero alternative right now, and keeping the machinery going is essential. But that's why the "destroy independence to save independence" characterization feels a bit unfair. Nobody is looking to wreck things out of spite. It comes from a really genuine worry about the difference between winning a regular election and actually winning a country.
The concern is that after nearly twenty years in power, any party naturally becomes the establishment rather than the fresh brand you need to inspire a radical leap to statehood.
Pointing out that there is no alternative doesn't actually challenge that underlying difficulty. Is it maybe impossible for a fresh alternative to emerge right now? Maybe it is. But is that any less likely than a fatigued SNP somehow winning over enough undecided voters to clear the 50% line in the future? If both paths look incredibly unlikely, then we are looking at total stagnation, and that's the real anxiety. It’s not about being reckless, it's just the deep strategic concern that staying locked into this exact cycle eventually leads to a terminal decline for the whole cause.
Regards
Ross
"But that's why the 'destroy independence to save independence' characterization feels a bit unfair"
DeleteIt's not an characterisation. Robin McAlpine has expressed that sentiment literally, and it cannot possibly be unfair to simply repeat what he has said. I'll give you his exact quote: "For independence, this isn’t the need for reform. It isn’t a call for penitence. This is simply a clear awareness that we must now die and be resurrected."
If anyone is going to try to tell me that those words mean something other than what they plainly do mean, then good luck to them.
"Nobody is looking to wreck things out of spite."
Again, that is objectively untrue. Stuart Campbell is 100% out to destroy the SNP, he has stated that explicitly, and his motivation is entirely spite. You know, I know it, everyone knows it. It's pointless to pretend otherwise. With Robin McAlpine it may be more complex, although there are persistent rumours that he has a long-standing personal grudge against certain individuals within the SNP, and he doesn't exactly do much to dispel that impression in his writing sometimes.
James
DeleteOk fair enough on those specific points. Im not fussed about defending those individuals. The wider point remains that an snp strong enough to win elections but not 50% plus of the vote could be an issue that needs tackled, should we move to defacto territory.
Regards
Ross
There are practically no parties anywhere in western Europe capable of winning more than 50% of the vote. If the de facto referendum option was used, it would have to be done on the basis of the combined SNP and Green vote - or ideally a joint slate of candidates.
DeleteYes, that is my point. They need to maximise the yes vote by considering how to broaden the appeal so that a slated non partisan position can be taken.
DeleteI dont even think an snp and greens cuts it. It needs to be a yes team with their support though. This all needs to be planned out in advance and give people something to rally around.
That no party is getting 50% plus in Europe makes the point it cant be overly partisan in nature. Notwithstanding no country in western Europe has a burgeoning independence movement either which is always seen as a larger cause.
Looks like the Bath Balloon, IFS and the rest of the Anti-SNP motley crew are getting more and more frantic now, after what they all hoped and prayed for in the election didn't happen.
ReplyDeleteSNP won convincingly once again, their following remains strong and resolute, their finances are increasing and they are now bolstered by pro-indy governments in Wales and N.Ireland.
Swinney has not only steadied the ship, he has re-invigotated its crew and replenished its stores.
No wonder that mob are spitting tacks.
In the light of what we now know you may wish to reconsider your use of the word "mob".
DeleteSo, did the "Anti-SNP Motley Crue" need to be saved by the delay in Murrell proceedings - or was it someone else?
Who would follow IFS, wee beardy bathman. They don't get it. We dont trust them.
ReplyDeleteHow do we achieve independence if Westminster continually refuse us a referendum. What’s plan B.
DeleteAnon 10.19. Try asking the Alliance to Liberate Scotland. After all Barrheid Boy boasts of being right all the time.
DeleteWestminster voting intention, Lord Ashcroft for the Mail on Sunday, super sample (5,263), field work 25 - 26 May.
ReplyDeleteVery unusually no outright RefUK lead. They’re tied for first with the Tories at 21%.
Larger than normal, Scottish sub-sample (458).
Con 17%, Lab 20%, LibDem 17%, RefUK 14%, Green 15%, SNP 31%.
Double digit lead for the SNP and RefUK trailing in sixth place. A decent result.
Er, I think that adds up to 114%.
DeleteI had the misfortune to see a bit of Good Morning Breakfast, with various clowns spattering toast and beans all over the place in their indignant presumptions about Sturgeon "must have known". Whatever happened to the cornerstone of Justice - innocent unless proven guilty? God help us all if any of them are called up for jury duty.
ReplyDeleteDo these total clowns employ a team of private detectives to spy on their spouses or partners 24/7 - if they have any - or are there some things they just take on trust? Well, do you, punks?
I said years ago that Sturgeon is naive. She trusts the wrong people. Nothing has changed.
In fairness she said she prefers to surround herself with people she trusts. Critics jumped on that saying that she should have been surrounding herself with the best people for the job. To be honest, I don't understand the whole Sturgeon fan thing. People really seem to rate her when after all she was just as disappointing as any other politician. So many things didn't get done - important things - while a lot of guff ones got lots of effort and attention. I voted SNP for independence, all I got was a series of false starts and s bundle of poor quality papers. Oh, plus she raised the price of booze for the poor and didn't even make it a tax, and she did the Bute House Agreement that nobody voted for. Apart from that she was great, I suppose.
DeleteAs F M and leader of the SNP she was told, in public, that there were issues with the finances of the SNP. She told the executive and SNP members who were raising the issue to stop talking about it, and she did nothing to look into it. Multiple office holders resigned due to the lack of transparency over SNP finances. Nothing to do with trusting her husband. Nothing to do with her being seen as guilty of crimes. Everything to do with her failing in her responsibilities as F M and leader of the SNP. And she now claims calls for her to explain her inaction are misogyny. That is contemptible and she is seen now in an entirely different light.
DeleteEh, she is no longer leader of the party MSP or FM. What is contemptible is the mysogeny by the vigilantes who know everything about nothing supported by the Brit press and media. What is they want retribution? Let’s have a new election because the Scots shouldnt vote for pro independence parties? You need to recognise she is innocent of any crime just as Salmond was innocent of any crime. Suck it up.
ReplyDelete9.37 am you can’t even spell properly.
DeleteIt’s called reset of stolen goods. Reset, in Scottish law, is the crime of knowingly receiving, possessing, or helping to retain property that has been stolen, robbed, defrauded, or embezzled. It applies to ANYONE who takes possession of goods, intending to keep them or aid in their concealment, despite knowing they were obtained illegally. The police sent a file to the prosecuting authority and they wrongly refused to prosecute after deliberating over the contents for many months. The person in charge of the body responsible was appointed by Sturgeon to the role. That person subsequently resigned from the role.
Straw man on steroids. People are asking for honesty and accountability. 400,000 former SNP voters are fed up with the lies and the agenda driven nonsense from simpletons like you. You can’t even spell misogyny, but you parrot it out on command. The only good news is that you are probably too stupid to actually realise you ought to be embarrassed.
Delete