Hammerblow for Starmer as YouGov poll shows he is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn, Reform UK's lead has trebled, and the SNP have yet another handsome lead in the Scottish subsample

Starmer's decision today to withdraw the whip from four Labour MPs is a sign of weakness, not of strength, because if it's a disciplinary matter to organise a partly successful rebellion that clearly attracted the sympathies of the majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party, then the leadership is unambiguously at war with those who sustain them in office.  Without some humble pie being eaten to pave the way for a reconciliation, the chances of Starmer being deposed during this parliament have surely increased.  Which may be no bad thing for the Labour party as a whole, because yesterday's YouGov poll was an unmitigated horror show for them.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 13th-14th July 2025):

Reform UK 28% (+2)

Labour 22% (-2)

Conservatives 17% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 16% (+1)

Greens 12% (+1)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Reform UK 22%, Labour 18%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 6%

Recent YouGov polls had shown a narrowing of the gap between Reform and Labour, opening up the possibility of a 're-crossover' that might put Labour back into the lead for the first time since the spring.  But most other polling firms haven't really corroborated that trend, and now YouGov have returned to the pack and dashed Starmer's hopes by suddenly showing a trebling of the Reform lead from two points to six.

The Scottish subsample isn't quite as good for the SNP as last week's, but it's still plenty good enough to be getting on with, and continues their run of favourable results since the Hamilton by-election.  The Tories' dire fifth-place showing in Scotland may seem scarcely believable, but in fact it's been a pretty consistent pattern for months now.  We may at last be seeing The Strange Death of Tory Scotland.

Net ratings for party leaders and potential party leaders:

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -6

Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -31

Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -35

Jeremy Corbyn (Independent Alliance): -37

Keir Starmer (Labour): -44

So Starmer now has an inferior net rating to Jeremy Corbyn, and Corbyn is also ahead in terms of the percentage of respondents who view each individual positively (25% for Corbyn and 23% for Starmer).  Remember that when Starmer replaced Corbyn as Labour leader five years ago, it was supposed to be a no-brainer that Labour had just acquired a much more electable leader.  That theory may now be tested to destruction, with Corbyn looking set to lead or co-lead a party in direct competition with Labour.

Incidentally, one of the suspended Labour MPs is Brian Leishman, who represents Alloa & Grangemouth.  That means the number of Scottish Labour MPs has been for the time being reduced from 37 to 36, leaving the party with 63% of Scottish seats at Westminster.

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