Monday, April 29, 2024

John Swinney as leader? "We tried that, it didn't work."

The title of this post contains the exact words John Swinney himself used a few years ago when someone suggested he might be a future leader.  Because he was of course leader between 2000 and 2004, and it really didn't work.  The SNP had convinced themselves that the public would warm to Swinney as an 'elder brother' figure who was much less divisive and Marmite than his predecessor Alex Salmond, but the public had other ideas. 

I can remember multiple appearances by John Curtice on Newsnight Scotland in which he urged the SNP to face up to the fact that they had a major leadership problem.  The polls consistently showed Swinney was the least popular of the four main party leaders - which not only meant he was less popular than Henry McLeish and Jack McConnell, but also less popular than the Tory leader David McLetchie and the Lib Dem leader Jim Wallace.  That predictably was reflected in election results, with the SNP losing ground in terms of both votes and seats at the 2001 general election, before a major setback at the 2003 Holyrood election when they slipped from 35 seats to 27, followed by the ultimate humilation when they dropped below 20% of the vote at the 2004 European elections.  At that point the game was up, Swinney was replaced by his predecessor Salmond, and the general consensus was that his whole four-year leadership was a failed experiment.

Why, in an emergency situation, would you return to a failed experiment?  Unless of course your only priority is to muddle through and maintain the control of the ruling faction any way you can, rather than to work out what is in the best interests of the SNP and the wider independence movement?

Even now, even after the catastrophe of the last year, they still just don't 'get it'.

150 comments:

  1. For the good of this country there needs to be a Holyrood election.
    These charlatans have done enough damage.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hurry along now or you'll miss the last bus to Yoontown.

      Delete
    2. Aye right! You think John Swinney’s taking us from this to independence? Your bus is for the psych ward!

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    3. Take the last bus to yoontown
      You can be there by four-thirty
      'Cause I've made your reservation, don't be slow
      Oh, no, no, no
      Oh, no, no, no

      Delete
  2. Humza fuckt up, he should have never resigned, he should have fought the assorted arseholes.

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    1. Indeed. He's given in to the Greens, and by the looks of it, the SNP are going to do so again in this leadership election.

      If they do, I give up. What happened to the SNP being the SNP?

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    2. Fight who, everyone? If any SNP government since 2016 had told the Greens to pound sand, they would've gone elsewhere eventually. The Tories would eat the greenest coalition agenda if it let them throw the SNP into opposition and gloat.

      The only thing they could've done was call the Greens' bluff and dared them to make the above jump. Yousaf did that last week and look what happened.

      If it wasn't to be the Greens, it would have had to be the Lib Dems or one of the other two. That's how parliamentary majorities(or lack thereof) work.

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    3. I'm still waiting for someone to explain how any successor could scrape together a majority without the Greens. Which devil are we dealing with next?

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  3. To be fair to Swinney, he’s gained a lot in the last twenty years in terms of experience and a strong reputation for competence (which is not exactly a common trait among the current crop of SNP figures). He seems a good choice to come in, steady the ship and bow out for a new leader to take the party into the 2026 election.

    Kate Forbes would undoubtedly be a better choice - but electing her would essentially mean an immediate election as the Greens will be hot out the traps to vote her down and the Unionists are not in any mood for compromises.

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    1. I don't agree with that. I think Kate Forbes would find a way of staving off an election. Remember an election isn't in the Tories' interests, so if she can give them some sort of way off the hook, they might well take it. And presumably she'd have the backing of Ash Regan.

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    2. Humzs wasn't made to stand down to hand the job to Kate Forbes. Those who made him do so want either Neil Grey or John Swinney, who are more acceptable to the Greens.

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    3. Thats my take as well.

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    4. (My reply was to James...not Ano @ 2:14pm)

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    5. It's not important "who he was made to stand down for". That's the language of the continuity faction who have caused this mess. What matters is who stands in an open leadershil election and who attracts the most support.

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  4. It was 20years and manty cabinet posts ago though. Times change.

    I'm not against Swinney being the leader. Would be seen as a sade pair of hands by many.

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  5. We're moving towards the SNP only being able to govern with Green support. The days of an SNP majority by itself are difficult to forecast.

    Even of the SNP win an election.. unionist majorities will hold sway without a junior partner for the SNP.

    Almost like there will be a cordon sanitaire used by unionist parties for the foreseeable, driving SNP into green hands.

    Another pro independence party may be really important as a way to bridge the gap.

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  6. Forbes or it's all f@cked

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  7. The situation calls for a steady experienced hand, to at least get us through to 2026.
    Hopefully Swinney decides to stand and is elected leader.

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    Replies
    1. The last thing the situation calls for is a stop-gap, which is exactly what you're calling for.

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    2. Completely agree James. No more “steady the ship” please to those SNP members who will be voting. It just means continuity which clearly is not attractive to the electorate and doesn’t move matters forward towards independence at all.

      Personally I really don’t agree with most of the religious and social policies held by Kate Forbes, they actually make me feel uncomfortable. However the SNP, as the current main party of independence, must have a strong leader and she’s the only one that has that potential right now. It’s a risk but one I’m now persuaded to take or would be if I had a vote!

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  8. I expect it'll be Swinney because no one who still hopes they have a future would want it right now. Which is probably for the best

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    Replies
    1. The right leader would want it right now otherwise they shouldn't have entered politics. Don't wait to inherit an empty shell, actually lead and save the SNP.

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  9. I'm seeing a narrative develop online (read: Some Bastard on Twitter and/or Reddit) suggesting that it might be advantageous for the SNP to call an election and spend 2 years in opposition rather than attempting to limp their way to 2026. Obviously this is in defiance of the way that Holyrood is supposed to work but given the realpolitik of the thing is there any chance that coming from opposition rather than a weak incumbency could help the party and a new leader? Specifically, in terms of freeing the party to fight the General election as a single issue and being able to pin any short term losses on Yousaf, clearing the way for the 2026 campaign.

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    1. There's no guarantee that a Holyrood election would result in the SNP losing office. I'm not sure it's even probable: they still led Labour when last polled, though admittedly that was two weeks ago and it hasn't exactly been a quiet fortnight.

      I don't think even Labour genuinely want to risk it right now

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  10. Apparently MSPs supporters of Forbes think she will stand, but there isn't any confirmation yet

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  11. Wasn't Swinney the most disasterous party leader the SNP have ever had (probably being pushed into second-place by the current ding-bat)? He is a human charisma vacuum who possibly thinks it is manly in insurance, as he sails the wide accountant sea. Anyway, he dosen't want to be any minister, never mind the first one.

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  12. SNP can put up any candidate as FM and the campaign to remove them will start that night. Still the forthcoming GE will be SNP and for Holyrood 1 & 2.

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  13. Humza deserves a lot of credit for the impressive tone of his resignation speech. He was a very good First Minister.

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    Replies
    1. He showed sureness-of-touch and made a great resignation at press conference. We can all agree.

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    2. Agreed. Humza has conducted himself with grace, dignity and integrity - both as FM and in the manner of his leaving.

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    3. Like Major, Swinney, Miliband etc, it seems he's already getting tarred with the "uninspiring politician but a decent guy" brush that most quickly-forgotten leaders get.

      Oh well. Onwards and up(?)wards

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    4. He very eloquently said that he fucked-up, and he was toast.

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  14. Highly-regarded Neil Gray is reportedly supporting Swinney.

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    Replies
    1. "Highly-regarded" LOL

      Well, at least he's not standing himself, that would have been even worse.

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  15. The only way Forbes staves off a similar fate is doing a deal with the Tories.

    Oh how that will play out as a narrative.

    Wishing we can go back to cuddly old Anabel Goldie times is wishful thinking.

    Putting your fate in hands if your greatest opponent instead of the zoomy elements of a pro indy party isn't going to get us anywhere.

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  16. I agree with Mr Kelly on this, if Forbes doesn't stand now, why is she into politics?
    It's now or never

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    Replies
    1. Flynn is lining up an insurance policy in case he loses his Westminster seat. Whoever gets the job now will be under pressure to stand down at some point when Flynn is free and after the Scottish election in 2026. Hence the push for Swinney who will be happy with such an arrangement. If Forbes gets it now she’ll be ejected unless she performs miracles up to and including 2026. She’s best to wait till 2026, if that fails, then she needs to wonder if the SNP deserve her.

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  17. Humza is also a victim of circumstances.

    You don't have a majority and dont want a coalition handed to him by a predecessor.

    Wouldn't matter if he was Bismark himself, the numbers are what they are.

    The numbers are given to us by the electorate and will likely be similar in abother election. SNP may go down, Labour may go up but end result will be a loose coalition needing green or lib dem support. Almost certainly green support.

    Ie. Nothing is going to change for a while. It's not the personnel particularly to blame.

    Forces cannot get a majority just as much as Swinney won't.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Victim of his own stupidity, as well.

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  18. The unionists here seem less happy today than Yesterday, maybe because it seems we're not going to have a Direct Rule Tory- Labour administration at holyrood

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  19. Jenny Gilruth a potential future SNP leader has now thrown her support behind John Swinney.

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    Replies
    1. Clearly the continuity gang are keen for a coronation. Forbes needs to get out there as soon as possible and make clear that’s not what we’re going to have.

      Honestly, every time there’s a vacancy at the top of the SNP, the continuity gang seems hellbent on ensuring it’s filled by someone worse than their predecessor!

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    2. She may be a potential SNP Leader in your opinion ... not in mine.

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  20. Scottish Independence List Vote Party needs to be established. Only one purpose. No other agenda. That gets Indy parties a solid majority in Holyrood. It’s that or forget Indy for foreseeable future. Devolution powers will be diluted even more.

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    Replies
    1. “No other agenda “. So only independence matters!!!!!!!!
      How about a party that can run the country properly? Deal with the important issues that really matter to people. Maybe if the SNP were capable of that and showed people they are competent, then more people would be in favour of independence.

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    2. SNP would never agree to that.

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    3. Anon at 4.22. Read what I said again. Slowly. And anon at 4.33 the new party would have sweet F A to do with the SNP. That is the whole point.

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  21. Swinney nae way . Is there any MSP other than Forbes who wouldn't be a continuity candidate?

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    Replies
    1. Forbes has unacceptable viewpoints on women's rights, trans rights, and LGBTQIA+ rights generally.

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    2. She thinks what most people think. It’s this cabal of authoritarian self-proclaimed progressives who think differently.

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    3. It would be one thing if her big plan for government was to enforce her personal beliefs on the country. But it's not. If and when she comes to power, and predictably does not lead a crusade of puritanical revanchism, her critics are going to struggle to maintain these lines of attack.

      "She's going to roll back your abortion rights" loses a fair bit of its sting when she fails to roll back your abortion rights.

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    4. Anon 5:01. She's much more in line with the public on gender issues. But she manifestly doesn't think what most people think on things like abortion or gay rights.

      That's a moot point though, as she made clear in the last leadership election that she wouldn't be forcing her personal opinions on those issues onto the statute books.

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    5. More of a concern for me than her social views, which she wouldn't get the opportunity to do anything about, is her right-wing economic stance, which she would.

      I'd probably still take her over any of the realistic alternatives, mind

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    6. Anon at 4.56. Who appointed you to judge and condemn the viewpoints of others? People like you are the main reason the SNP finds itself in its current predicament.

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    7. Anon 4:56 is always banging on about the alphabet soup. It's this that has destroyed the SNP as a party of independence by focusing on 'rainbow' nonsense to the exclusion of all else. They should all clear off to the Greens where they belong.

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    8. Kate Forbe's medieval social views wouldn't come into it? If there was a vote on abortion issues etc she wouldn't abstain herself out of office? If she didn't vote according to the party whip, she would get sacked from being a minister. She wouldn't get away with not voting, like she did on the GRA bill.

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    9. Like Humza did with his medieval religious beliefs?

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  22. Stephen Flynn who is the leader at Westminster is now backing Swinney.

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    1. That's encouraging for Swinney because Flynn is often spoken highly of as a future leader.

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    2. Apparently you need a 'steady as she goes' approach when the ship is holed below the waterline.

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  23. The dream team - John Swinney and Jenny Gilruth.

    Oh God, I'm emigrating.

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    Replies
    1. R u Dame Mone?

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    2. R u Dr Jim or Bob Lamont?

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    3. no/yes; yes / no -take your pick

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  24. Surely there must be one, just one, person in the SNP who genuinely wants independence and is prepared to do everything they can to achieve it? At this rate Murray Foote will be next leader.

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    Replies
    1. There are plenty. But the underminers /brit nats would make you thing there aren't. Are you one?

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  25. Not to rush Forbes or anything, but the speed at which the continuity crew are coalescing around Auld Uncle John shows just how determined they are to hold onto the leadership.

    The longer she waits to jump in, the harder it will be to do so.

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    Replies
    1. Think her mind is long ago made up..... not to jump

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    2. She has Cherry and Ewing in support but little else in the party is putting head above parapet.

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  26. Is it just me that can't be bothered with this "continuity" crap that keeps getting flung around? They're in one party, the SNP, for Independence.

    A leader isn't going to come out of nowhere, it's going to be from within the upper eschelons of the party..it's inevitable it's going to be from some type of continuity.. they're in the SAME party for goodness sake.

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  27. Better for Forbes to take the mantle when it isn't poisoned. Smart money is on Swinney to the next couple of years and then Forbes in opposition offensive.

    Long game

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    Replies
    1. So an even more dire and turgid leadership period than Humza Yousaf's, with Forbes inheriting even fewer seats from Swinney than she'd have ultimately inherited from Humza?

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    2. Politics is about waves of support as well as events. That much is clear to me after so many years.

      SNP has been in power too long. There is a residual support for a competent SNP again but I sense it'll come in a second wave.

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  28. Forbes will not want to be like Hague - a good bottle of wine opened too early.

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  29. Nobody questioning the d"Hondt vote counting farce that provides Scotland with list MSPs - favoured/placed by their party - eg. Murdo Fraser, has he ever been elected to serve as a legislator?
    Events unfolding - appears that the Greens have dried their tears, and will continue to "engage" - Harvie, Slater Greer, Chapman, think on it - with the SNP government - and influence the governance of Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. D'Hondt alloates more proportionally than FPTP.

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    2. D'hondt is a good system in my view. It gives us a parliament representing Scotland. Not the people's fault this. It is up to our politicians to make it work.

      The fact is SNP Green coalition is a majority of voters with politicians than can mostly work together.

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  30. How does Forbes make these numbers work though?

    Doing a deal with Conservatives is not easy? In fact I'd suggest a fool's folly.

    She may be the best candidate, though I have my doubts, but it's irrelevant if she doesn't have the numbers.

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    Replies
    1. Voters took a very dim view of mindless obstructionism from the opposition parties in the '07 parliament.

      The best thing Forbes could do would be to formulate a popular policy agenda that addresses real and urgent public needs, and then dare opposition MSPs to vote against it.

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    2. She's the best candidate by a country mile!

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    3. She may decide her young child doesnt need the hassle of moving etc. at present. Why have all the hassle of being attacked by the britnat press ALBA and the rest.

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  31. So let me get this right, the Wings crew have been calling to get rid of the greens for years now. Now that is has happened, it was a tactical mistake to do so?

    Wings is a double agent or just hates the SNP. His "groomers" tweet of a week or so ago was years in the making.

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    Replies
    1. He took a year to write a tweet? How do you know?

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  32. All the articles talk about the Greens voting against Yousaf, but would they have had and commit electoral suicide?

    For the sake of the SNP, Yousaf should have forced them to actually vote and look even more spiteful, or abstain and look like prats.

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    1. I agree with your post yesindyref2.... he could have 'gone down fighting with all guns blazing!' ...but he chose not to...why?
      I can only conclude he used his weekend to make sure the continuity' team were in place before he jumped.
      Thats not what I call "taking one for the SNP."

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  33. John Swinney is bald and wears glasses. We can’t have that. He looks like an older Neil Grey. Less fat but with glasses. Bad for Yes.

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    Replies
    1. Neil Gray is fat Flynn, and Flynn is fat now. Not good.

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    2. End of the Line.

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  34. Sky News says Forbes is actively considering standing for leadership

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    1. Is it possible to consider something but not actively?

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    2. Given that many SNP 'weel kent' heids have declared their support for Swinney ... I seriously doubt she will.Indeed..since we now appear to have a Green Government she may well be best advised not to.

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    3. When the best the continuity crew can do is a man so dismal he went backwards in opposition, I’d say that should be a pretty short consideration.

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    4. She should stand for leader of Alba, as that's the only support she'll get.

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    5. Aye, you'd probably prefer Maggie Chapman or Lorna Slater. Who cares about competence when there's men in frocks to worry about.

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  35. What's the chance of John Swinney being a witness in the possible trial of at least Peter Murrell?

    Any prosecutor would in effect be calling in his boss as a witness.

    I wouldn't doubt that John Swinney would tell the truth but as a politician on the stand he'd have to answer the prosecutor's questions fully, not as a politician but as a witness. That would inevitably be very uncomfortable politically even if there was an eventual acquittal.

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  36. Do we care -what if, maybees aye, maybbes naw

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    1. Personally I don't really care who the leader of the SNP is, but the next FM of Scotland is of some import. And it doesn't look good to me. We have had a year of a FM with the political ability of an eloquent pebble (his singlar achievement in a year appears to be that there wasn't a strike somewhere, appart from where there were strikes) , and the next one looks like they are going to be even worse, for divergent reasons.

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    2. Run along Dross...there's a good chap.

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  37. Is Swinney being ressurected because it's Easter? Or is it because the party is so talentless that the other choices include a gibbering balloon-heid, and someone who would be out of office as soon as there was a vote on abortion, homosexual marraige, transexual rights, etc.? It must have taken the party serious dedication to get here.

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    Replies
    1. Pretty much except that it's not Easter

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  38. The only thing that matters is votes, and that includes votes from the majority if Scots who are pro status quo. Especially now that the Yes camp is infighting. Swinney is the best man to win the next ELECTIONS.

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    Replies
    1. ...."especially now that the Yes Camp is infighting.".....
      My good man....trot along to Kelvin Way/Glasgow this Saturday
      and witness the strength of the YES Movement!

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  39. Who is this John Swimmey giy?

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  40. Will you be doing the pole that came out today?

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    Replies
    1. Is this a homo comment?

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    2. There was a YouGov poll today that had SNP rising more than its nearest rival.

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    3. Only if you are the vaulter.

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  41. No Surprises, lyrics extract of that Radiohead song, seems apposite:

    “…..
    Bruises that won't heal
    You look so tired, unhappy
    Bring down the government
    They don't, they don't speak for us
    I'll take a quiet life
    A handshake of carbon monoxide
    And no alarms and no surprises..”

    No alarms and no surprises with Swinney.
    ALBA bruises that won’t heal.
    HY government brought down - You Do It To Yourself, You Do… but that’s a different one of their songs lol.

    Brian

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    Replies
    1. I dont like music "to slash my wrists by" (Radiohead)

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  42. Mairi McAllan -- who has been spoken of as a potential leader -- has now come out for John Swinney.

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    Replies
    1. Oh look...its the same yoon who called Jenny Gilruth a potential leader........God loves a trier eh?

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  43. The most important thing is the SNP have exposed Salmond for what he is on a big scale, now there will never be a snowballs chance that Salmond could get himself elected as a council toilet cleaner

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    1. That is…… not the most important thing. By a long way.

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    2. No they haven’t.

      They have exposed themselves as complete incompetent morons, who value their own visionless hegemony above Independence.

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    3. Hegemony.....you're a Brechin City FC supporter...tell the truth.

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  44. I met John Swinney at a charity do once.

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    1. That’s nice

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    2. Did you ask him if he likes Radiohead?

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    3. (wouldnt be surprised if John wrote their...em...things/numbers/songs.....whatever.)

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  45. Way more comments here than on rubbish Wing’s site. Haha

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    1. Do you like Radiohead?

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    2. True dat....he's probably on the verge of throwing hi toys oot the pram.

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    3. Pwople who love life dont like Radiohead. End.

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  46. Bring down the government, bring it to its heel
    Sure it a hoot when they prosecute you for doing what you feel.
    Bring down the government, bring it to its knees,
    If you want your rights you're gonna have to fight,
    So bring down the government please.

    No no no, that's not me said that!

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    Replies
    1. I think what you really meant was:-
      " Well I stand up next to a mountain....
      And I chop it down with the edge of my hand"......
      Jimi Hendrix 1968

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  47. I think the SNP are throwing in the towel. They know they face many years in the wilderness. So put up a leader who is going to retire. Take the hit for the team , then a new leader can rebuild.

    Continuity is the funniest phrase you hear. As if they are stable and need a contunum. When it's actually continuity on the dead end path that's sinking the party.

    I think the SNP need to disband.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...."as if THEY..."
      Butt out yoon...we see you.

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    2. Take the last bus to yoontown
      You can be there by four-thirty
      'Cause I've made your reservation, don't be slow
      Oh, no, no, no
      Oh, no, no, no

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  48. Says the 2%. Go away fantacist. If anything the SNP support are angrier than ever with the underminers and britnats

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  49. Has anyone actually declared they want to run yet? Quite an indictment of the SNP that they're all running scared.

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    1. Usually considered bad form to nominate on Humzas day of resignation.

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  50. Wonder how much longer this blog has?

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  51. Question for people here: is Swinney a better / stronger candidate for leader than Yousaf was after NS resigned?

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    1. Both are and were great candidates who have served the party well in my view.

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    2. I don't think Swinney will be great, assuming it's him, but better than Yousaf, who was/ is standout awful

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  52. It has to be John Swinney. Even if it’s just to get us through to the Holyrood election.
    I don’t think Kate Forbes would be ideal at this stage, and will she even want the job? She has a young child, and there’s a massive difference between being a back bencher and FM, especially at this very difficult time for the SNP.
    Assuming Swinney stands, I think the party will vote for him, due to his vast experience, which is obviously what’s needed at this time. Maybe come 2026, Forbes will be more ready and will have 5 years to rebuild.
    It makes no sense to bring her in at this stage, with everything that’s going on.

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  53. Professor curtice says Forbes has more electoral potential than Swinney

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  54. Again this story that Kate Forbes has children? So what, if she wants to be a housewife then just retire from politics

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  55. The conservatives labour lib dem in the Scottish parliament the english newspapers including those in Scotland ( there are no Scottish newspapers now ) the BBC SKY STV Ch4 westminster the house of lords , most corporations in uk and the english people , want England to continue to control Scotland , its no surprise that eventually the greens in Scotland would turn against the SNP , make no mistake thats what they did they said they were going to have discussions within their own party about continuing in partnership with the SNP in the Scottish government and would let the SNP know what they decide in a months time ! There was no way the SNP could possibly accept that from this tiny green party group so Mr Yousaf said no , this was planned the outcome was planned and Westminster get rid of another SNP leader in the Scottish parliament , if you honestly think that it has not been Westminster that has got rid of A Salmond N Sturgeon and H Yousaf you being naive , with global warming and dangerous wars that we are involuntarily and helplessly involved in there is no way that Englands Westminster is going to let its small neighbour take back control of its own hugely valuable and hugely essential natural resources , England would be impoverished without control of them , the international political decisions of a Scottish parliament would always be very different to that of Westminster and that means that it is very likely that you can add USA government to the list above.Scottish politics is infiltrated both in Holyrood and in Westminster by politicians we hardly ever see most of whom we would not even recognise if we passed them in the street those politicians are happy to be in the shadows collecting their huge salaries early retirement pensions and other perks they dont want to campaign for the one thing we voted them in for , Scottish independence because the LIST above would go after them hunt them down and force their ejection from their cosy jobs.Where are the young Scottish people that will sweep these old foggies aside and do the job properly , there must be people in Scotland who cannot be bought off by Westminster and the LIST.Please step forward form a group and do whats necessary for the freedom and wellbeing of Scottish people.

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    1. The above by Terence Callachan Dundee

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    2. Nationalist BS.

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  56. Of course the Usa are on it, removing Yousaf the only leader in Europe explicitly condemning Israel's actions

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