Saturday, August 3, 2019

Remaining open-minded about a Remain alliance in Scotland

I have a new article in The National about the Brecon and Radnorshire result, entitled 'Could by-election-winning Remain alliance work in Scotland?'  You can read it HERE.

I see that the reference to a Remain alliance has already attracted one or two hostile comments on social media.  In fact, that point is only a small part of the article, but to avoid any misunderstanding about what I'm suggesting (and more importantly what I'm not suggesting), I'll expand on it here.

In my view, offering a Remain alliance to the Liberal Democrats in any pre-Brexit snap election would be a good each-way bet for the SNP,  because...

1) There's a 95% chance that the Lib Dems would say no.  That would allow the SNP to fight the election exactly as planned, while claiming the moral high ground and demonstrating that the Lib Dems are not serious about stopping Brexit at all costs or about working with others to stop Brexit at all costs.  Why would the Lib Dems say no?  For a number of reasons.  A pact would destroy their long-term strategy in Scotland, which is based on dogmatic, unyielding British nationalism and the securing of tactical votes from natural Tory supporters in selective seats.  It would also be humbling for a self-styled "national UK" party to have to stand aside in more than 90% of Scottish  constituencies, which is bound to be the condition of any pact.  (The Lib Dems are only the strongest Remain party in the four Scottish constituencies they currently hold.)

2) Even in the highly unlikely event that the Lib Dems say yes, the pact would actually work in the SNP's favour.  The four seats they would be standing aside in are among the small handful of seats they'd be highly unlikely to win anyway, while Lib Dem support for SNP candidates on an "emergency stop Brexit" basis could be a game-changer in Tory-held seats.  There's a Remain majority even in Moray.

3) As you know, I'm a strong supporter of the McEleny/MacNeil plan to use an election to secure an outright mandate for independence in the event that a Section 30 order is refused.  For the avoidance of doubt, if the SNP were to accept that plan for the next general election, an alliance with the Lib Dems would be completely out of the question, because there would have to be a pro-independence candidate in every single constituency.  But we've all heard the mood music from the SNP leadership: in a snap pre-Brexit election, they're more likely to emphasise their plan to stop Brexit, albeit with a pledge to hold an independence referendum.  That being the case, they might as well maximise the number of seats they win.

52 comments:

  1. What's not to like? Especially as it would help expose Swinson's true nature as a closet Tory.

    ReplyDelete
  2. My current UK poll subsamples average:
    44% SNP
    16% Con
    15% Lab
    13% Lib
    9% Brx
    3% Grn

    SNP lead = 28 pnts over Con.

    Libs don't seem to be going anywhere, so should support a Remain alliance and stand aside for the SNP. It's really their only hope of stopping brexit and saving the UK.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Lord Ashcroft indy poll out Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I cherish the decency in your message. It's humanity shines through and might make me weep.

      Delete
  4. This is the level of intellect currently in charge of brexit.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49223319

    But Mr Barclay said the backstop could mean people in Northern Ireland having EU rules "foisted on them" indefinitely to preserve the open border.

    #56%RemainLandslide

    ReplyDelete
  5. The duty of a Patriot is to protect his country from its government", - Thomas Paine.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cornelius WesterbrookeAugust 5, 2019 at 3:38 PM

      "The duty of a patriot is to buy sherbet fountains and distribute them to people living on barges." (Zuleika Mortimer)

      Delete
  6. Castanets McKinnonAugust 4, 2019 at 10:51 AM

    The Liberals are bound to say No to any such arrangement. They always were 'Tories with a Caring Smile' but under Swinson they are now the Remain Tory Party. It's hard to see Swinson's RTP agreeing to a pact with the SNP given that their appeal is more blatantly aimed at Tories than ever. Why would or How could the RTP's target voters support the pro-independence SNP?

    So, the SNP leadership should definitely propose such a scheme to the Luveral/s/RTP.

    ReplyDelete
  7. And we have Gorgeous going to stand against Tom Watson on a Brexit and supporting Corbyn platform! Corbyn is now against Brexit after supporting it for decades. Not like Gorgeous to get confused.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hold your hands out, you naughty boy.
      Hold your hands out, you naughty boy.
      Three, five, two says the lady from the zoo.
      Three for me and five for them and two for her and you.
      Hold your hands out, you naughty boy.
      Let me buy you a pretty toy.
      There was water in the field when the gentlemen called "Yield".
      Hold your hands out, you naughty boy

      Delete
  8. These guys really love you GWC.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/04/tory-candidate-says-english-taxpayers-fleeced-by-scotland

    England would be better off without Scotland, Tory candidate said

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Delmar G OddfellowAugust 5, 2019 at 7:12 AM

      Well, shorten my odds with a nail file!

      Delete
  9. The UK government understands you do negotiations by actually talking to people right? In the case of the EU, that would be the leaders of neighboring countries and EU representatives.

    Simply writing echo chamber articles for the local low brow rag isn't really standard protocol.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49223319

    Brexit: UK calls on EU to renegotiate or face no deal

    EU leaders must give their chief negotiator the mandate to revise the UK's withdrawal agreement, otherwise a no-deal Brexit is "coming down the tracks", the Brexit secretary has said.

    Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Stephen Barclay said "political realities" had changed after May's European elections.


    And erm, is this some sort of revelation?

    Mr Barclay said Mr Barnier had told him in their discussion last week that he is bound by the instructions given to him by the European Commission and leaders of member states.

    You mean the EU has 27 other members who all need to agree to re-open negotiations and agree any new deal? Is it not just Herr Juncker from Luxembourg, Germany, that controls the EU?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anyone who says they would be better of without another is rather sad and selfish. Just like it is our oil

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Queen Elizabeth 💰August 4, 2019 at 6:30 PM

      It's my pigeon! Mine!! The bunsteads.

      Delete
    2. So the UK is better Remaining in the EU and sharing fishing waters?

      Delete
    3. Rather if the EU wants to join the UK! We could share our British fishing grounds with China and Indonesia if you wish. Share the basket of fishes with the hungry so to say.

      Delete
    4. Would it be one nation one vote or would England still have to dominate this expanded UK?

      Delete
    5. We would need to have a UK referendum on that and the majority vote honored. I was not aware that England presently dominated the UK except the population size. We all get a fair share of the revenue and the English less per person. So you could say England is dominated by us.

      Delete
    6. Scotland up there with the SE/London in terms of generating wealth (GVA per capita, excluding oil) yet that all flows to enrich the SE/London, just like it does from everywhere else.

      Of course much of the wealth generated in the SE is made using the cash and talent milked from the rest of the UK. People there are not naturally more productive obviously (as can be seen in GVA).

      Delete
    7. It is a myth set to divide that some workers are more productive than others. I can pack more Tartan shortbread quicker than you syndrom.

      Delete
  11. @ GWC: I checked out UK infrastructure spending expenditure per capita some 5 years back. I doubt much has changed, broadly:

    South East England - £2000
    Scotland - £200
    Northern England - £5

    Yes, our closest neighbours receive £5 per capita in infrastructure spending.

    Setting aside - let's call it an emotional identity desire for Scottish independence - the hard dollar driver is the need to escape from the wasteful greed and incompetence of the Westminster system.
    Crossrail? Trident? Brexit?

    And there is also the moral need to disengage from UK political morals - arms sales, chink, money in. Oops, lives lost somewhere. Seems the UK has a pastor to comfort servicepersons who are engaged in zapping people via drones from computer monitors. OK with that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Morals indeed. Hitler, Mussolini, China Russia. Those lot would plonk a major Ordnance devise on us if they thought we could not retaliate. You are a knob who has no knowledge of history.

      Delete
  12. This is fully understandable, especially given such payments are often made weeks to months after events. The £ is crashing and could easily be worth 25% or more less in a few months time.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/04/edinburgh-festival-performers-avoid-sterling-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Edinburgh festival performers refuse sterling payments due to Brexit

    Artists ask to be paid in euros and dollars as pound continues to fall amid no-deal risk

    I wish I was paid in Euros.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And I thought all those artists were national socialists.

      Delete
    2. Buy me a button.

      Delete
  13. James, all that you say is true ... and the logic behind your argument stands up ... but I would NEVER trust a London based Unionist based Party ... they will always defer to their Colonial Masters ... I would caution the Auld Scottish Maxim ... "If ye sup wi' the Devil ... sup wi' a lang spoon"

    ReplyDelete
  14. An overwhelming majority of Scots support indy now according to the latest polling.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/08/lord-ashcroft-my-scotland-poll-yes-to-independence-takes-the-lead.html

    52% Yes / 48% No.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Overwhelming majority also back a new indyref within the next couple of years.

      Delete
    2. I think a key finding is the decent % that think the effects of no deal are 'overblown', which is likely holding back Yes somewhat. Unfortunately, when the UK government/media lie to people all the time about everything, you get the cry wolf effect. This is happening with no deal; a good number of folk think it won't be too bad. It's kinda understandable given the complexities of it all too.

      However, the 'golden age' has already begun unfortunately. Many sectors of the economy are already contracting. The latest:

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49229153

      Scottish company insolvencies up 46% in six months

      The number of companies in Scotland declared insolvent has risen by 46% in six months, according to new analysis.

      KPMG said economic volatility is behind the trend, with Brexit creating uncertainty for businesses.

      The professional services firm advised businesses to plan for worst-case scenarios and be fiscally cautious.


      We have gone over the cliff edge already, and are sliding down the first section, picking up speed.

      Delete
    3. Apparently fieldwork was just after bozo became PM, so Yes may have risen further since then as the threat of no deal as taken centre stage.

      Delete
  15. Today's blogpost from James should be lots of fun. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  16. 9% of Scots believe brexit strengthens the case for Scotland remaining in the UK.

    #goldenage

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ooh, Morgy, will you buy me a cottage in Dorset so I may watch the ocean wash over our sceptered isle. Our New Elizabethan Age shall commence. The Tudor Spirit shall envigoyr Britain again.

      Delete
  17. Yes should be higher than 52% as 16-17 year olds were not included. Seems Westminster VI was likely asked as well, hence keeping it 18+.

    From the table layouts and demographic groupings, it looks like he got yougov to do the fieldwork.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Westminster VI was asked too, meaning 16 + 17 years olds were excluded this would likely mean non UK nationals were excluded too. I would assume the EU nationals resident in Scotland would also boost the 'Yes' %.

      Delete
  18. Can anyone who believes a crash out brexit can still be stopped explain how this is done if a VoNC is lost, but BJ schedules a new GE for post October 31 st?

    Genuine question.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As i mentioned at weekend, first port of call for Parliament will be to make him ask for extension (as they did for May). If an election is needed to make this happen then that's what will happen.

      Delete
    2. So, I am right in that the only way to stop it now is to somehow force Bozo to ask for an extension, e.g. by means of an amendment to an existing bill? That's not easy; the amendment might not even be selected. It would need to be some sort of brexit related bill to have a chance, and I understand it may be that no brexit bills will go before the HoC. If the exit is by means of a crash out, many bills that might have gone forward don't need to.

      As for the VoNC... As noted, if Bozo loses, he can just set a GE date for after the crash out.

      Delete
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