So a few quick thoughts about the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result...
* The big paradox is that the Liberal Democrats won, and they won essentially because they are a Remain party, and yet this is a constituency that voted Leave in the referendum and that voted for Leave parties again tonight. Even if you don't count Labour as a Leave party, there was a narrow majority for the Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP in combination. The Lib Dems were able to come through because the minority Remain vote was united and the majority Leave vote was badly split.
* The narrowness of the result means that it's pretty likely that the Tories would have held on if a) Boris Johnson had become Prime Minister before the postal ballots went out, or b) the Brexit Party hadn't put up a candidate. It's also quite conceivable that the Lib Dems would have fallen short if it hadn't been for the unprecedented decision of Plaid Cymru to stand aside in their favour. Many Plaid members must be privately wondering whether that was a wise tactical move. The leadership may have thought that the Lib Dems were going to win anyway, so it was best to get a share of the credit...but now that it looks like Plaid may have swung the balance, there could be some regrets if considerable momentum is generated for the Lib Dems in Wales. But who knows, maybe the Lib Dems will act honourably for once in their lives and return the favour in constituencies where Plaid are the strongest Remain party.
* The real victor tonight was the Welsh language. Although Brecon and Radnorshire is very much in the more Anglicised part of Wales (hence Plaid's relative weakness in the constituency), the result was intended to be announced in both Welsh and English, but in the case of the main candidates, the returning officer only read out the numbers in Welsh and forgot to give the English version. The BBC and Sky well and truly got their comeuppance for covering a Welsh by-election without thinking to have a Welsh speaker on hand, because they literally didn't know what the result was for several minutes after it was announced. A far cry from the Welsh devolution referendum of 1997, when the BBC results programme was presented by a young Huw Edwards, who in one or two cases translated the results from Welsh in real time so that viewers would know them a few seconds early.
* As was widely trailed, the Tory/DUP majority in the House of Commons has been technically reduced to just 1, although in practice it's slightly higher than that because Charlie Elphicke remains a Tory MP in all but name. The majority will also revert to being 2 temporarily if Jared O'Mara sticks to his plan to resign his seat after the summer recess.
Turnout down 15%. The remain candidate polled 43.5% down about 5% from 48% from the 2016 referendum in this seat. If it hadn't been for Plaid and the Greens standing aside but Brexit intervening then the Tories could have won. Not the result the LD's expected. They thought given the circumstances of this by-election it would be an easy victory. The polls for this by-election were way off.
ReplyDeleteA Tory-Farage ENP pact for a snap GE would be the only hope Boris has of improving his position.
ReplyDeleteOf course the SNP would likey clean up in Scotland in such an election, accelerating UK break-up.
This election was about Brexit. The Brexit Party were naive and should have stood down. However more people did vote for brexit parties. Corbyn needs to wake up and resign.
ReplyDeleteRemain won.
DeleteLeave won the 2016 referendum. Have you just returned from tattie picking!
DeleteGuy in Wonderwoman Costume. Weird.
DeleteThey were never in the running but Labour dropping around 12% is key as well, looking like their vote either switched to the LD or just stayed at home.
ReplyDeleteThink Pc made the right choice in not fielding a candidate, fielding one and probably loosing their deposit would of gained them nothing, at least they managed to get some positive spin out of it. Plus the LD getting a bounce of winning is going to be preferable to the Conservatives getting one out of it.
The only pact that could work is for the Brexit Party not to stand candidates in seats that the Conservatives hold/have a chance of winning. In both Brecon and Peterborough the Conservatives probably would of won if the Brexit party had not taken their vote.
Ruth seriously unpopular with Tory grassroots.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1157241014911938560
Boris should sack her and replace her with an English MP.
I nominate Nadine Dorries.
DeleteUk construction has contracted for a full quarter now it seems.
ReplyDeleteWe're accelerating towards 'the golden great brecession age'.
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https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-pmi/uk-construction-sector-contracts-again-spillover-risk-seen-pmi-idUKKCN1US0WI
UK construction sector contracts again, spillover risk seen - PMI
Brexit party looks in no mood to roll over for the 'greater Brexit good'
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192
We are preparing to fight all 650 seats across the country in a Brexit General Election.
As a remainer long may this last, the more the leave vote is split the better
Boris has the power to deliver a disastrous crash out brexit, farage doesn't. Its for that reason the ukip vote vanished in 2017.
DeleteThe brexit party vote is already falling sharply in polling averages, moving directly back to Con.
http://britainelects.com/
It looks like 2017 again as ukip collapsed to Con. This time though, the remain vote is badly split in England.
Bozo needs 2/3 of the HoC to vote for GE before 19th September realistically.
ReplyDeleteBut if he can crash the UK out on the 31st October, then why bother? Can MPs actually stop it now? The default is a crash out unless the UK government votes to stay in or for an extension somehow (and our neighbours agree).
Why not let time just run out? The only reason for getting a new majority would be to get the current deal through. The 'dead' deal that bozo and the ERG hate, as there is no other deal to be made.
Bozo sees himself as Churchill. He is madly delusional. He wants to lead a country where the shops are empty of food etc.
Bojo will likely call for a GE in Oct. Labour will back the call, it is what they have been asking for, so it will proceed. This will close parliament while the campaign runs but Bojo remains PM. So the 31 Oct will pass and give us No Deal by default and Bojo can say to the Brexit voters that he delivered in an attempt to unite the Leave vote behind him and gain a majority in the HoC.
DeleteBoris has no say in the matter. Parliament will pretty quickly send him with his tail between his legs to beg for an extension once they come back in September (like they did to May). I believe the EU have already pencilled in a date in mid September for this to happen.
DeleteThe price for an extension will be to hold a GE or second ref, he will then have a choice hold a GE voluntarily or be forced to by a VOC.
The 27 sovereign states of the EU would not put the conditions you specify on any extension. That would be interference in member state domestic politics. That's not something members do lest it happen to them / destroy the consensual basis of the union.
DeleteThe UK might be able to secure an extension by saying the plan is to hold a GE/new ref, but the 27 would never demand that.
“While I have endless patience, some of my colleagues have lost patience quite frankly with the UK and there is enormous hostility to any further extension.
Delete“So I think an extension could really only happen to facilitate something like a General Election in the UK or perhaps something like a second referendum if they decided to have one,” Mr Varadkar said.
Sounds very much like have an GE/second ref to get get a extension to me, especially when you know that Borris could not say no as that would go against what parliment has told him to do.
If the EU start dictating when the UK should have domestic elections / referendums in a clear breach of political interference protocols, I would vote to leave. I'm pretty pro-eu. You should not wish for such a thing.
DeleteIf, as per your quote, the UK puts forward a plan with which has a timetable involving a new iref/Ge which may resolve the impasse, the neighbours may be sympathetic to that.
Adam: I am not sure how exactly you think Parliament will get Boris to tuck his tail between his legs etc. Much as I would wish you were right. The Tories will not split, not so soon after recess anyway, and the DUP have their wagon well and truly hitched. Some Tories might vote against the government but equally likely some Labour MPs will vote with them. So the status quo will not be broken quite so easily as you seem to think. Unfortunately.
DeleteThere is an interesting scenario being mooted in Ireland, that Sinn Fein resign their 7 seats in favour of non-political individuals who will hold them only so long as Sinn Fein allow them and will only vote on Brexit matters. That might upset the Boris apple cart.
DeleteSo you're saying that the anglicisers were "pump"ed?
ReplyDeleteI actually thought at the time his failure to read out the English version was deliberate and a protest for the Welsh language!
ReplyDeleteThe Taffy Leak gobbledy gook brigade hold the rest of the country to ransom. Sad.
DeleteWe are leaving the EU jockos so stock up on the usual diet of porridge and Buckie. What was good for Wullyum Wallace is good enough for his descendants. Freedom
ReplyDeleteSpoken like a true Neanderthal.
DeleteSpoken like a true wind-up merchant.
DeleteTo the english nationalists, you are very much dispensible. They will sell you out.
ReplyDelete---
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49185561
Really it started when I heard the results in one poll that said if Brexiteers had to choose between Northern Ireland and Brexit, they would choose Brexit," he said.
"It made me (a unionist) feel that perhaps we're dispensable.
"In fact I discussed it with my family and thought, 'I don't know what flag I stand under any more? What does it even mean to be British now?'"
Many people in England are bemused by the notion of unionism.
ReplyDeleteOnly in Scotland Wales and NI do some folk - though fewer than before believe - that there was ever a Union.
You see it in quotes from history where English commentators are confused about when the Union began.
The rule of thumb seems to be that England at some point took over the rest, chose London as the capital - obviously and we should just get on with it. The fact is you cannot create a nation that way.
Britain is the worst example of one nation dominating the others in any state in Europe.
The UK is centuries out of date.
For God's sake put it out its misery and let's build the new Scotland.
If the UK was remodeled on the EU with a fair British Union parliament (smaller nations get more MEPs per capita to prevent large nation dominance) and a one nation one vote upper chamber Council, it wouldn't last more than a few weeks. England would vote for independence.
DeleteThe brexiters would have failed to win a majority at both levels for example, so would not be going ahead.
Ironically, that would be the sort of union that the SNP would have much more of a struggle in.
England wanted out of the EU because it didn't control it. Instead, little nations like Belgium (regional parliaments blocked TTIP) and Ireland veto major deals as they have just as much clout as other members.
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