Sunday, June 23, 2019

Bombshell Panelbase poll shows support for independence at a three-year high - even without Boris Johnson as PM

You've probably seen by now that there's a new Panelbase poll today suggesting that if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, there will be a majority of 53-47 in favour of independence.  But you always have to be just a little bit careful with poll results on hypothetical questions, even when the hypothetical scenario is highly likely to come to pass.  In this case, perhaps the biggest problem is that people might feel that the way the question is asked suggests that their response 'ought' to be different if Boris is leader.

So, as ever, what really matters is the result on the standard independence question.  But, never fear, that result is sensational enough - Yes have practically drawn level.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)

To put this in perspective, over the last few years Panelbase have been (along with YouGov) one of the most No-friendly polling firms.  For eighteen months between the early summer of 2017 and the autumn of 2018, every poll they published showed Yes on either 43% or 44% - a slightly lower level of support than recorded in the 2014 referendum.  Over the last few months, Yes has been creeping up and up in Panelbase polls - and today's 49% is the highest figure the firm has reported since the temporary surge in the aftermath of the EU referendum three years ago.  In conjunction with the (relatively) recent YouGov poll that had Yes jumping to 49%, this leaves little room for doubt that Brexit is belatedly helping the independence campaign to gain some traction.

The poll was commissioned by the Sunday Times, and I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, so I'm having to rely on What Scotland Thinks for the Westminster voting intention figures, and unfortunately there seems to be a small discrepancy between the figures on their website and on their Twitter account.  But what does appear clear is that, notwithstanding what I said earlier about exaggerated effects on hypothetical questions, there is actually very little difference between the standard voting intentions and hypothetical voting intentions if Boris becomes PM.  That's an absolute hammerblow for the Tories.  I've been saying for days that a Johnson premiership would be a double-edged sword for the SNP, because although it would help Yes to win an independence referendum, it might also in the shorter term help the Tories hold off the SNP's challenge in the north-seat constituencies, due to Tory voters coming home from the Brexit Party.  But the latter doesn't seem to be the case to any appreciable degree.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 38% or 39% (n/c or +1)
Conservatives 18% (n/c)
Labour 17% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (n/c)

Hypothetical Scottish voting intentions for Westminster if Boris Johnson becomes Conservative leader:

SNP 39%
Conservatives 18%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 14%
Brexit Party 7%

The Brexit Party vote does drop 2% on the assumption that Boris is leader, so it could be that those votes are going to the Tories.  But there are two problems: a) the Tories would have expected the swing to be a lot bigger than that, and b) it's not actually doing them any good, because presumably (although we'll need to see the datasets to be sure) Johnson is causing existing Tory votes to be lost in the other direction to Labour, the Lib Dems and maybe even the SNP.  With or without Johnson as leader, the Tories are on 18%, about twenty or so points behind the SNP, who could expect to win around 50 of the 59 Scottish seats, and leave the Tories with something in the region of 3 (down 10 from the current position).

Incidentally, the finding that there won't be much of a Boris bounce was supported at Britain-wide level by a Survation poll yesterday, which suggested that the Tories would enjoy a net gain of only two points with Johnson as leader, and that the Brexit Party would only slip back four points.  The Tories and Labour would be tied for the lead in that scenario.

Panelbase also have Holyrood voting intention numbers...

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot): 

SNP 42% (+1)
Conservatives 20% (n/c)
Labour 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+3)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (regional list ballot):

SNP 39% (+2)
Conservatives 20% (+1)
Labour 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)
Greens 7% (n/c)

The SNP's 42% on the constituency ballot is their highest vote share in any Panelbase poll since 2017.  In a way it's strange that the Tories are doing a little better in the Holyrood vote than in the Westminster vote, although that may simply be because some voters don't think there's much point in switching to Farage's mob in a Scottish Parliament election.

There would be a very clear pro-independence majority in Holyrood on those numbers, and the SNP wouldn't be far away from an outright majority of their own.

*  *  *

2019 Scot Goes Pop Fundraiser: This is Day 24 of the fundraiser, and so far £7925 has been raised. That's 93% of the way towards the target figure of £8500. A million thanks to everyone who has donated so far, and I'm also extremely grateful to all the people who have left a kind comment with their donation. You can visit the fundraising page HERE.

79 comments:

  1. The Union is almost finished, especially as the chancellor admitted that we subsidise the rest of the UK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What he said was ambiguous, and it's pretty unlikely he meant it the way you say.

      Delete
    2. Is it? Yeah? You're psychic are you? Yeah?

      Delete
  2. Been refreshing this site all morning waiting on this lovely blog inclusion. I seen the info on Twitter but surprisingly nowhere main stream. Exciting times ahead, I say double up on the efforts though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. A 4% uplift in support for Independence should Johnson become PM is certainly not what the SNP leadership would have been hoping for and will likely recede once he gets his feet under the desk and gets on with screwing Scotland in exactly the same way as all his predecessors.

    Events are not going to deliver Independence by themselves.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The YES movement do not want to see a - 6% I'm sure I read and not 4% - increase in support for Independence? What a strange viewpoint, the momentum could be massive if it forms into an actuality. Surely?

      Delete
    2. With respect, I would guess a 4% uplift is pretty much exactly what the SNP leadership were hoping for.

      Delete
  4. Anyone know where I can get a 'I'm backing Boris!' t-shirt?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Norris G ThundercakeJune 23, 2019 at 9:27 PM

      Colonel Flipflop is flogging them off at Tory Branch Office in Edinburgh. 75p for 2 - XXL only

      Delete
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Looking at the longer term trend, the closure in polls has come from a steady fall in No with a mirrored Yes rise. A direct swing it appears, with the DKs have not changed much.

    GWC's sterling work to put people off the union by constantly abusing them is clearly paying dividends.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Strange. I thought Scottish Skier and GWC were the same person, as shown by Scottish Skier publicising GWC above.

      Delete
    2. Aye, he's my alter ego. I identify as non-binary; one day orange, the other green.

      Delete
    3. Not necessarily a direct swing, could be churn no>dk>Yes. Still the right direction though.

      Delete
    4. Sure. I meant a technical direct swing, i.e. No down, Yes up. Rather than say Yes rising due to gains from DK, but no actual shift in No numbers.

      Delete
    5. That's not called a swing although some people seem to think it is. What you are talking about is called a divergence. A minor point but worth being factually accurate. It would be s pity to give ammunition to the Captain Mannerings of yheisv world.

      Delete
  7. Here's a thing. Straw in the wind.
    Reading my daughters Sunday Times to see what Jockos they were attacking today. I think she gets it for the TV guide.
    Front page, which I had seen getting my National.
    Boris victory "will end union" with their Panelbase stats.

    Went towards the back to see what Gillian Bowditch would be frothing about. I nearly fell on my arse. She was actually fulsomely praising Scot Gov AND N.Sturgeon on the Alcohol Minimum Pricing bill.
    Oh, and she slipped by admitting that the whisky tax is important to the the UK exchequer. "A series of chancellors,highly aware of the importance of the whisky industry to the British economy, pegged the price of whisky while salaries steadily rose".
    And,nae wee dirk slid in at the end of the piece.
    If I was on twitter I would send her a "thank you".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How dare you? Elton John wrote Candle in the Wind not Straw in the Wind as a tribute to the greatest Princess this country has ever seen in its history since Queen Elizabeth herself.
      You demean yourself with your snide words.

      Delete
    2. Hi TOGFER,
      you'r dead right. Ah'm doon own ma Knees when ah see er likeness oon th boax. If ah hud herr, ah'd be tuggin ma forelock.
      Oor Quine Bett, lang mae sh reign ower us. Us dinnae reely deserve her. She's sae gud an pure.

      Delete
    3. Its not hard to learn to spell properly you know.

      Delete
  8. I actually made up Skier as a Jock Nat si English hater. He is me GWC. I do not really hate the English. Skier is easy tae make as lots of his type are around with their bitterness and constant Jock moaning with sad hard dun tae stories about the DWP cracking down on benefit fraud etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Robin of LocksleyJune 23, 2019 at 10:48 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    2. You are weirdly obsessed with the English though. I can understand why they find it a bit creepy; so much so they'd be happy dumping you brit jocks to get their brexit.

      Delete
  9. 'Will end Union' obviously spin for 'England could lose control of Scotland over Brexit' Rank and file Tory members caught telling the truth over what they think of us here in 'Beyond the North'
    PS did Hunt really have a photo op in Peterheid wi a can o Irn Bru?
    Aye oor fishing industry will be safe in London's hands.
    Anybody who believes that is either glaikit or gullible - mibbe baith!

    ReplyDelete
  10. For a narcissist like Boris, everything is all about his own glory, and he sees that in the context of the Tory party. So, with the polls showing that the Little England Brexiteers would be happy to dump Scotland if it would get them their max-masochism no-deal Brexit, he might decide to do just that - dump Scotland.

    That would be quite lovely from our point of view, of course - not least because it would pull the rug out from under the Usual Suspects among the Yoonatic right: SiU, manky jaiket man, the Ludgers.

    Boris is a narcissist. That is one of the reasons his judgement is so suspect. Between being known for ever after as the Prime Minister who lost Scotland because we took it back, and being known as the Prime Minister who graciously bowed to our will over EU membership and took the only logical step that would allow it, I'm sure he would prefer the latter.

    It has been pointed out, though, that there are about 20 Tory MPs who form a Never Boris faction, a bit like the Never Trumpers over the water. Subtract 20 from the Tory quasi-majority and Boris cannot function as PM. At that point there would seem to be no solution other than a general election - though even that might not solve anything.

    Improbable, ridiculous even? But then, so is the mind of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He has a 30 seat majority in England. What 16 seats in England and Wales? The problem is Scotland and N. Ireland; they lose Boris his control.

      He'd absolutely jump on the English independence bandwagon if the thought it would bring him more cash, wine and shags.

      Delete
    2. There's a piece on ConservativeWoman - https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-way-to-a-clean-brexit-independence-from-scotland/ - which basically comes to the same conclusion:

      "To get the numbers they need, Brexiteers need to choose the right battlefield. And then win the battle.

      The right battlefield is Britannia alone and not the UK. England and Wales have 573 seats in Parliament. Scotland has 59 seats, and basically none of them will support a Clean Brexit. So, to win a majority of seats in England, Wales, and Scotland, Brexiteers would (simplifying a bit) need to win 316 of the 573 seats in Britannia. If the battlefield is Britannia alone, Brexiteers would need to win only 287 of those 573 seats. Achieving a Grieve/Hammond/Rudd-proof Brexiteer majority in Britannia alone is obviously much easier than achieving such a majority in the UK as a whole."

      Delete
    3. Do I detect envy Skier! You clearly spend so much time whining to even know what a shag really is. Maybe you rolled your fag papers with it.

      Delete
    4. Brexit's incompatible with devolution too. They've already had to start rolling it back.

      The same problem will occur with any new trade deal; you end up with a clash of legislation as some related areas are devolved.

      So, either Westminster just keeps overruling the Scottish/Welsh/N. Irish parliaments, resulting in court battles etc, or it just takes back control of just about all devolved powers, even potentially the NHS.

      Boris as PM alone gives Yes a big boost, never mind an end to devo.

      The great brexit constitutional crisis hasn't even warmed up yet.

      The UK can't survive anything other than the very softest brexit, i.e. EEA with full free movement like Norway/Switzerland.

      Delete
    5. @GWC

      The wife has never screamed at me to 'get off her' and 'get out of her house'.

      Delete
    6. Number one Worlds lover then!

      Delete
    7. Robin of LocksleyJune 24, 2019 at 5:55 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    8. " cash , wine and shags" would make a great punk rock song title. Just saying....

      Delete
    9. How dare you peddle such filth.

      Delete
  11. So much for the UK's reputation as a democracy.

    Whether deliberate or not, it just looks racist to the world, especially in the context of brexit, windrush, the 'hostile environment' and 'Scotland needs England's permission for independence'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48744647

    EU deplores UK 'voting obstacles' in May European elections

    Bloody EU fascists. Standing up for people's right to vote! How dare they.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The EU will eventually be in the dustbin. They have no say over my country. (UK).

      Delete
    2. Many voters in the UK don't get a say either, e.g. EU citizens, Scots... N. Irish.

      Only English voters get a say it seems.

      Out of interest, if England wants independence, does it need permission from Scotland/Scots MPs?

      Delete
    3. Robin of LocksleyJune 24, 2019 at 5:56 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    4. Cordelia's 2 personas seem to be having a lovely chat.

      Delete
  12. Borris (if he is to become next PM) has next to no options:
    Go for no deal- Conservatives bring him down
    Somehow manages to convince Brexiters to vote for the deal on the table: DUP brings him down

    Tries to 'dump Scotland': DUP bring him down

    So that leaves a GE or a second ref, out of the two a second ref gives him the highest chance of remaining PM, so he will try and find a way of engineering that to happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Dumps N. Ireland and Scotland'

      Seems more realistic since the backstop = dumping N. Ireland already. If N. Ireland stays in the single market, policy diverges so much it's not realistic to have MPs from there voting for UK trade, agriculture, economic policy etc... It needs to become some sort of largely autonomous protectorate. Like the Falklands, Gibraltar...

      As for an EU referendum with no mandate?

      If you want to really piss off the electorate and get them to vote Leave again, that's how to do it! Tell them 'We didn't like your first answer, so we're going to keep asking you again and again..'. That's where the Brexit party are rising from.

      With Remain/Leave polls a statistical dead heat, it's not as if we can expect a vote to stay with any confidence at all.

      A second ref needs the public asking for it in a GE. That's the only way to Remain winning it.

      Delete
    2. Contracepta Reece MoggJune 24, 2019 at 6:00 PM

      Maybe the British could turn NI into one of their tax dodging havens like the Isle of Man, the Cayman Islands or Jersey. DUP (Dedicated Upmarket Properties) could then start selling luxury apartments in places like Portadown to oligarchs from Russia, Saudi Arabia or the USA. The British could use to tax money for 3rd runways, HS trains and royal yachts.

      Delete
    3. Tax dodging as opposed to tax robbery from hard working people. At least 50% of politicians are not required. More money from tax dodgers would only end up in the pockets of politicians and not the public services.

      Delete
    4. Robin of LocksleyJune 25, 2019 at 9:11 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  13. Well he can't dump NI as the DUP would bring him down if he tried. The fact that remain leave could well be 50\50 is way more attractive odds than a GE

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    1. 2nd referendum and he destroys the Tories, paving the way for Farage as prime minister and a crash out hard brexit.

      Unless Leave drops below say 35% and/or FPTP is ended in favour of PR, then life in the UK will be all about brexit going forward for many, many years.

      It's just not going to go away because it's roots are too deep / stretch too far back. Just as Scottish independence is inevitable as the empire retreat reaches all the way back to where it began, so brexit won't go away either until it's all resolved. They are tied to each other, part of the same final collapse, just as the slow Westminster descent into corrupt political farce is.

      The best hope for Remainers in England is the end of Britain and England facing the world as just little England. With all remnant empire fantasy dispensed with (as is the case for all the other European nations), it should be ready to join the modern world and Europe properly.

      Sustaining Britain just sustains the 'two world wars and one world cup Britannia rules the waves' delusion.

      Nobody had as an empire any more. It's nothing to be ashamed of being just a large sized European nation like Spain or France.

      Anyway, I admire your continued optimism about a second referendum sorting things all out. However, even if that happened it's only likely to buy the UK a little time. The end of Great Britain is a natural process; all of the empire is gone now, and second to join will be second last to leave.

      Jeez, I'm just early 40's and I've lived through what 13 countries leaving the British Empire to become independent.

      It's all played out in history so many times before. Empires rise, and fall. Expand, and contract back to where they started.

      Britain will just be a small part of Scottish, European and world history.

      "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"

      Delete
    2. Lets see, personally I think Brexit wont happen, a second indy ref will not happen/narrow loss and Scotland will get Devo Max in some shape or form shortly after that. With the big picture of European countries loosing the global economic power over the next couple of decades Independence will become a much less pressing issue, especially if you have something like devo max.

      Delete
    3. What could lead to Scotland getting Devo Max? The Tories have no reason to do it: they'll never win a Holyrood election, so their UK leadership doesn't really care if the SNP stays in power. If Corbyn gets in, he's not going to give more powers to Scotland in an attempt to bolster a Scottish branch whose membership and MSPs are largely hostile to him and which he's just managed to win a GE without.

      Delete
    4. Ah yes, the Devo max offered if we voted No in 2014.

      And I'm not sure Britain losing yet more economic power would lessen the desire for Scottish independence.

      The reason Britain is breaking up is because it has no purpose / meaning. It's a relic of the past, a past that is gone.

      Europe is a product of European countries losing their global power. They all once had empires; lost these and moved on. England remains in a British imperial time warp even though the retreat hit home shores in 1997 with devolution as the sun finally set on Hong Kong.

      My prediction is that Scots will vote massively for devolution in the late 1990's; as soon as they get the chance again. This time it won't be a narrow 52%, but 3/4 Yes. The empire is gone and thatcher ripped the British out of Scotland by shutting down or selling off everything British north of the border.

      Labour will govern for a while, but because most of them don't give a shit about Scotland or the parliament - which they created simply to 'kill nationalism/the SNP', in time the SNP and other pro-indy parties will begin to win devolved elections. They'll win because they care about Scotland, not necessarily because people are ready for indy.

      However, once the pro-indy parties take hold, they'll keep getting elected because they do a good job as they do care about Scotland. This will inevitably mean an independence referendum at some point. Maybe more than one if the first doesn't lead to independence. The issue will become the defining one in Scotland just as devo did in the 1980s/90s.

      Meanwhile, England will have a major existential crisis about it's post empire place in the world. It will increasingly blame furriners and migrants for all its woes. The right wing media will feed this frenzy of fantasy. There will be talk of 'Making Britain Great Again!'. The jocks will get it too, and in response to devolution and 'How dare one eyed jocks become PM!', Scots/Welsh/N. Irish voting powers in the British [English] parliament will be heavily curtailed. It will be called English Votes for England's Laws or something, and done not as a means to strengthen the union, but as a knee jerk 'anti jock etc' reaction. This will damage the union even further by making the British parliament the official English one. No more pretense.

      At some point the anti-migrant feeling in England will trigger an EUref. As corrupt self interest consumes them, the Tories will have stood on this ticket to try and retain power. The EU skeptic right will win, triggering a 'Brit-exit' and associated major constitutional crisis that breaks the union by tearing apart devolution and the GFA peace process.

      At this point, support for Scottish independence will approach majority while the same happens in N. Ireland for reunification, at least in the even of a 'hard brexit'. Unable to hold the union together by democratic means, democracy may start to be restricted by London as the final end draws near. It may get very mess with crash out brexits and even UDI by Scotland, although if the latter happens it will be supported by European countries as they seek stability.

      The last PM of the UK will not be British, but English (and a racist nationalist), both cause and effect.

      That's what I see happening. Roughly anyway.

      Delete
    5. You've got far too much to say for yourself and nobody reads your word farts.

      Delete
  14. Have to laugh at the great leader Corbyn who now wants the public to vote on the deal. This would make history and all the working class wealth makers would need time off to read the document. Poor Jeremy the hypocrit leaver now at a loss and no real leadership. At least he has Diane the academic Shadow Chancellor to console him with figures.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. respect are troopsJune 26, 2019 at 10:19 AM

      That remark would be slightly less unfunny if Diane was Shadow Chancellor.

      Delete
  15. Skier@9.39pm. That was another of your desperate comments. Go home and give yer frog wife a hug or something else. Your desperation shows when your comments drag on and on. We are leaving the corrupt EU so pack your boxes and join them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Robin of LocksleyJune 25, 2019 at 9:13 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  16. @Keaton becasue if you give Scot Gov control of things like benfits, minimum wage business rates then they cant criticises them. No more Tory/English foods banks, benifit caps austerity etc its all in the hands on the Scot Gov. If they do a good job then there is no need for Independence because people are well off if they do a bad job no one will trust them with indipendance its a win win.

    You will always get the 30-40ish percent that are always going to vote for Independence and the 30-40ish that will vote to stay in the UK. Its the middle 20% that hold the power. As long as you keep increasing devolution (no powers have been taken from the Scot Gov not will they be if UK stays in EU) and stop attack line areas such as benefits taxation, wages etc then you will never get a majority for Independence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why would you always get 30-40% voting for english rule? The maxium yoon at all costs vote in Scotland has never been higher than 20%. Given that the under 55s are now a Yes majority, our figures are even more wrong than at first glance.

      In other news. I see this article in the grainyard has attracted the usual racists. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/25/brexit-union-conservative-party-northern-ireland-scotland

      I saw a brilliant comment that Spirit Duty is a tax on consumption so Scotland really doesn't produce any revenue from Whisky. Which is news to the treasury which charges duty on production and collects over £4,000,000,000pa from Scotland. They give us back £500 Million in Gers.
      That's £4 Thousand Million Pounds stolen from Scotland's accounts every year. I'm sure leasky, gordon and hutcheon will be publicising this theft any minute now.

      Delete
    2. Yes, duty is paid by the producer, not person in the shop.

      https://www.gov.uk/guidance/spirits-duty

      Delete
    3. No it collects that amount from the UK as a whole, this gets then allocated to the countries based on were the distilleries are located. So £4 thousand million pounds are not stolen from Scotland each year.

      Delete
    4. Anon - I'd be keen on a link, which I assume you have.

      I genuinely thought (without really thinking) that spirits duty was charged to us on a bottle. Well, we do sort of pay it as does form part of the cost to us in Tesco, but the manufacturer actually pays the duty at the point of production. They just then add the cost to buyers, and it's passed on to us.

      It's not really clear to me how GERS gets figures. What you suggest seems very complicated as large corporations will have distilleries across the UK and are paying per litre of absolute alcohol, not specifically per bottle of Scotch. So ethanol in vodka production at a site in will be under the same bulk duty payments as ethanol distilled for whisky from the highlands. It's all just ethanol, mass produced in stills, before being used to fortify our spirit drinks.

      Anyway. GERS says this:

      https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/FAQs

      In addition, whisky consumed in the UK is subject to VAT and alcohol duty [which includes spirits duties]. This is assigned to Scotland on the basis of how much is consumed in Scotland.

      Scotland spirits duties are recorded as £391 million for GERS 2015-16.

      https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/queries/007

      For the same year, the UK income was 3147 million.

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/284336/united-kingdom-hmrc-tax-receipts-alcohol-duties-by-type/

      So Scotland just got 8% of that, i.e. a consumption share (Scotland is 8% of the population), and not a production share.

      I am happy to be corrected. I just did a quick look out of curiosity.

      Delete
    5. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/803475/Disaggregated_tax_and_NICs_receipts_-_methodological_note.pdf

      As for how calculated:
      The estimation of alcohol duty raised in Scotland is based on the premise that the burden of
      duty is borne by the final consumer rather than the producer.
      UK alcohol duty revenues are taken from ONS’ database underlying the Public Sector
      Finances for:
       Spirits;
       Cider and perry;
       Wine; and
       Beer.
      Scotland’s share of total UK private household consumption of these different alcohol
      products is then used to derive the proportion of duty attributable to Scotland.

      So this, on the face of it could seem as unfair, if its made in Scotland then Scotland should get the duty.

      So lets have a look at if Scotland is loosing out. Based on this and adding on a bit of growth lets say 86million (75cl) bottles are sold in UK in a year with 80% being sold outside Scotland. That gives us 68.8 million (lets round it to 69m for ease).

      We can calculate the duty using the formula here:

      https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/holding-and-movements-exports-shops/hmexsh5030

      First need to get the volume so:
      69000000*0.75=51750000L

      Duty is £28.74 of pure alcohol so based on a 40%ABV, £11.50 in duty per bottle.
      £595125000

      Of course from that you have to take off the reverse (ie spirits distilled in other parts of the UK but sold in Scotland.

      Long and short GERS may under allocate Spirit duty in GERS but nothing to the extent of £4 thousand million pounds


      Delete
    6. It appears Scotland has at least a 30% share of distilleries, yet only gets 8% (population share) of spirits duty.

      https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2018/10/11/Brewing-and-distilling-in-Scotland---economic-facts-and-figures#Spirits--a-growing-industry

      So, it should really get 3.75x what it does get, i.e. our £391m should be £1,466m. That would be well over £1 billion 'stolen' from the books. Not to be sniffed at.

      Delete
  17. Deep racist hatred for Scots and utter contempt for democracy (+ Scots taxpayers) very evident.

    https://archive.fo/gIfxm

    Jeremy Hunts cuts off overseas support for Nicola Sturgeon to try and maintain English colonial control of Scotland

    The union has very little time left, whichever of the two dickheads wins it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wee Knickerless was looking good in her swish yellow outfit on the front page of the National today. She would blend in with the female Mep spongers.

      Delete
  18. Don't you just love the BBC and Chanel 4 Pro Remain mob. They do not even hide it now. No wonder the Jocko Nat sis are silent about them. The rich elitists are in for a shock when we leave. The next to go eventually will be over half of the university graduates MSPs in the Jocko Parliament. Fn wasters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Didn't see you as a Chanel user but whatever floats yer boat...

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJune 26, 2019 at 12:41 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  19. Jeremy Vine show's a hoot. Feel the union lurve.

    They totally ripped the piss out of GWC and mates.

    Glad I can hold my head high as someone that's always voted Yes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sucking the boabies of the EU Mafia is hardly holding yer heid high. But you are Irish and your Mrs a Frog. No shame.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJune 26, 2019 at 12:41 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  20. For anybody following the racism and assorted abuse scandal involving certain politicians and perverts. Look at this wonderful collection. Twatted by a minister no less. C McKelvie hang your head in shame!

    Lisa Charlwood-Green


    @TheWOWNetwork
    Follow Follow @TheWOWNetwork
    More
    Great to celebrate #50YearsScotland with @LGBTIScotland and @kezdugdale, @AnnieWellsMSP @ChristinaSNP @patrickharvie @Miss_Leeze @Cmacf76 and many more!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Euref2 + big remain vote just around the corner! This is why Broon 'Hasn't given up hope' I imagine!

    Westminster voting intention:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    via @YouGov
    Chgs. w/ 19 Jun

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scottish subsample:
      43% SNP
      9% Green
      14% Con
      13% Lib
      7% Brexit
      7% Lab

      Another cracker for Labour.

      Delete
  22. Arch Euro-sceptic Corbyn sitting on his hands watching his party go down the drain. Labour are neck and neck with Lib Dems and loosing votes to the Greens at a rate of knots (presumably pro EU voters who find the Lib Dems a bit too right wing or still can't forgive them for the coalition).

    Always assumed that Corbyn was untouchable, but now with pretty much all the 'big gun' Labour MPS openly supporting a second ref, wonder how long it will be before the knives openly come out for him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I reckon he's got until maybe summer 2015 before they start gunning for him.

      Delete
  23. Well, it's definitely going to be PM Boris.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48777385

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should be happy with that. Boris = indyref 10.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJune 26, 2019 at 11:35 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete