Bombshell Panelbase poll shows support for independence at a three-year high - even without Boris Johnson as PM

You've probably seen by now that there's a new Panelbase poll today suggesting that if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, there will be a majority of 53-47 in favour of independence.  But you always have to be just a little bit careful with poll results on hypothetical questions, even when the hypothetical scenario is highly likely to come to pass.  In this case, perhaps the biggest problem is that people might feel that the way the question is asked suggests that their response 'ought' to be different if Boris is leader.

So, as ever, what really matters is the result on the standard independence question.  But, never fear, that result is sensational enough - Yes have practically drawn level.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)

To put this in perspective, over the last few years Panelbase have been (along with YouGov) one of the most No-friendly polling firms.  For eighteen months between the early summer of 2017 and the autumn of 2018, every poll they published showed Yes on either 43% or 44% - a slightly lower level of support than recorded in the 2014 referendum.  Over the last few months, Yes has been creeping up and up in Panelbase polls - and today's 49% is the highest figure the firm has reported since the temporary surge in the aftermath of the EU referendum three years ago.  In conjunction with the (relatively) recent YouGov poll that had Yes jumping to 49%, this leaves little room for doubt that Brexit is belatedly helping the independence campaign to gain some traction.

The poll was commissioned by the Sunday Times, and I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, so I'm having to rely on What Scotland Thinks for the Westminster voting intention figures, and unfortunately there seems to be a small discrepancy between the figures on their website and on their Twitter account.  But what does appear clear is that, notwithstanding what I said earlier about exaggerated effects on hypothetical questions, there is actually very little difference between the standard voting intentions and hypothetical voting intentions if Boris becomes PM.  That's an absolute hammerblow for the Tories.  I've been saying for days that a Johnson premiership would be a double-edged sword for the SNP, because although it would help Yes to win an independence referendum, it might also in the shorter term help the Tories hold off the SNP's challenge in the north-seat constituencies, due to Tory voters coming home from the Brexit Party.  But the latter doesn't seem to be the case to any appreciable degree.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 38% or 39% (n/c or +1)

Conservatives 18% (n/c)

Labour 17% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 13% (+3)

Brexit Party 9% (n/c)

Hypothetical Scottish voting intentions for Westminster if Boris Johnson becomes Conservative leader:

SNP 39%

Conservatives 18%

Labour 18%

Liberal Democrats 14%

Brexit Party 7%

The Brexit Party vote does drop 2% on the assumption that Boris is leader, so it could be that those votes are going to the Tories.  But there are two problems: a) the Tories would have expected the swing to be a lot bigger than that, and b) it's not actually doing them any good, because presumably (although we'll need to see the datasets to be sure) Johnson is causing existing Tory votes to be lost in the other direction to Labour, the Lib Dems and maybe even the SNP.  With or without Johnson as leader, the Tories are on 18%, about twenty or so points behind the SNP, who could expect to win around 50 of the 59 Scottish seats, and leave the Tories with something in the region of 3 (down 10 from the current position).

Incidentally, the finding that there won't be much of a Boris bounce was supported at Britain-wide level by a Survation poll yesterday, which suggested that the Tories would enjoy a net gain of only two points with Johnson as leader, and that the Brexit Party would only slip back four points.  The Tories and Labour would be tied for the lead in that scenario.

Panelbase also have Holyrood voting intention numbers...

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot): 

SNP 42% (+1)
Conservatives 20% (n/c)
Labour 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+3)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (regional list ballot):

SNP 39% (+2)
Conservatives 20% (+1)
Labour 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)
Greens 7% (n/c)

The SNP's 42% on the constituency ballot is their highest vote share in any Panelbase poll since 2017.  In a way it's strange that the Tories are doing a little better in the Holyrood vote than in the Westminster vote, although that may simply be because some voters don't think there's much point in switching to Farage's mob in a Scottish Parliament election.

There would be a very clear pro-independence majority in Holyrood on those numbers, and the SNP wouldn't be far away from an outright majority of their own.

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