...but I have a sneaking suspicion that'll turn out to be a non-standard question asking respondents to take Brexit into account. If so, that wouldn't be out of line with similar polls we've seen in recent months, although I certainly wouldn't diminish the significance of it in any way.
I've managed to track down the exact wording of another question in the poll...
From what you have seen and heard so far do you think that Brexit makes it more or less likely that you would vote to support an independent Scotland?
More likely: 38%
Less likely: 25%
Neither more nor less likely: 31%
Which bolsters the impression that Brexit has the potential to secure the small net swing that would be required to produce a Yes majority.
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UPDATE: It has been suggested to me by several people that the 51.4% and 48.6% figures are not from a specific poll question at all, but are just extrapolations of what would happen if you adjusted the 2014 referendum result on the assumption that No voters who say Brexit makes them "more likely" to support independence have in fact switched to Yes, and vice versa. If so, what we're being treated to this evening is the most ludicrous misreporting of a poll that you could ever wish to see. I can only admire the impudence of whoever came up with the idea.
There are Westminster voting intention figures being quoted from the poll as well, but I think I'll wait to see whether those turn out to be genuine. On the face of it they show a boost for the SNP.
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