Saturday, September 8, 2018

New YouGov subsample offers reassurance for SNP

So as you'll probably remember, the first polling straw in the wind after the Alex Salmond story broke was a Scottish subsample from a GB-wide YouGov poll, and although it had the SNP in the lead, the party's share of the vote was down to 34% - breaking a long, long sequence of YouGov subsamples that had the SNP in the high 30s or low 40s.  Although no individual subsample can be regarded as reliable, YouGov's Scottish subsamples are unusual in that they appear to be separately structured and weighted - which probably explains the relative stability of the results over time.  So the drop to 34% might have been a coincidental and meaningless blip caused by normal sampling variation - but it might just have been a warning sign that the Salmond story had caused some damage.

As Marcia pointed out last night, a new YouGov subsample is now out which appears to show that normal service has been resumed...

SNP 40%, Conservatives 23%, Labour 21%, Liberal Democrats 9%, UKIP 4%, Greens 3%

If it does turn out that we're back to normal, and that's a big if, it'll be impossible to know whether the dip was real but transitory, or didn't happen at all.  But the local by-election in Fife on Thursday certainly didn't show any sign of a catastrophic drop in SNP support.

Less encouraging are three subsamples from other firms - two from Survation that have the SNP in second place, and one from BMG that have them just about in the lead but in a virtual three-way tie.  But those are based on very small samples, and probably aren't separately weighted in the way that YouGov subsamples are.  For now the YouGov figures are of most interest.

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58 comments:

  1. The buzz on the street today, was encouraging and naebody even mentioned the Salmond case. Labour dropping like a stone while Yessers hand out free Nationals. Bookies now favouring a YES indy result.
    The dark money story nowhere to be seen in the papers. Davidson being kept in cotton wool. She'll be the face of the NO campaign.
    When she has her wee one she'll be all over TV and the papers.
    Desperate stuff mind. Somebody should exclusively reveal that she's a Tory..

    ReplyDelete
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    1. The only buzz we need is the sound of you buzzing off ramstam.

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    2. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  2. What is needed is a real Scottish poll.

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    1. There you go again Tomlin FFS.

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    2. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    3. Tha Bruce to tha rescue. Threedum!

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    4. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  3. It certainly seems to jive with the feeling on the street. Not at 2015 levels but better than 2017. Whatever troubles the SNP may or may not have, they pale in comparison to suicide belts on the constitution and constant back-biting over anti-Semitism.

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    1. Also, how Scots vote for the English parliament (particularly since EVEL and the apartheid that creates with respect to ministerial positions) will not decide Scotland's future. Independence will be decided in Scotland, not England.

      (Scots) Voters broadly appreciate this and, us 'hardcore' aside, just try to influence English elections as best they can. Hence they can vote in 41 Labour MPs (2010) then in the next breath (2011), deliver an SNP landslide and request a referendum on indpendence.

      How people vote for Scotland's parliament (their parliament) under PR well reflects their political views. There is essentially no tactical voting involved; no need for it. How they vote for England's parliament by contrast is massively influenced by a desperate attempt to have influence based on how they believe England is going to vote. 2010...2015...2017 are all variations on this theme and e.g. why the SNP vote 'fell' in 2017 (tactical voting for Labour to stop an apparent huge Tory victory) yet independence 'tomorrow' is polling higher than 2014 and 'independence if brexit goes ahead' has been > 50% since the vote. Deltapoll have just found the same (52% Yes if brexit occurs) as our less Yes friendly panelbase:

      http://www.whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/given-that-the-uk-has-voted-to-leave-which-is-your-preference-regarding-scotlan#table

      (53% Yes when you add the yes together). The yes here is coming from the same people who put yes ahead briefy after the brexit ref but then calmed down and said 'not tomorrow, but in due course if brexit actually happens'.

      That aside, SNP are up in the survation subsumple, meaning they are up in 2/3 recent subsamples. Must be a salmondgate* surge! ;-)


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      #Salmongate will make absolutely no difference to anything, even if it did turn out to be completely true. People just don't make major constitutional decisions on such things - it shows you how deluded the british state is to think they might.

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    2. Yes 53% and growing call the indyref now.

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    3. "jive with the feeling on the street". Yeah, wicked, Mon. Me n me bruvvas in da hood be master.

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  4. You used to do these poll-of-poll summaries, which I found quite sound. Now you appear confident that the less favourable polls for the SNP can be discounted. This is contentious. If you were to include them, how would they influence your former poll-of-polls results? Why not continue that practice?

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    1. Because its the end game for the so-called jocknatsis state and they want to bury their heads in the sand about it.

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    2. You imp-poster. Anonymous am I.

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    3. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. "Why not continue that practice?"
      Why not shut that gaping hole in face. Anita Harris fanny muncher.

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    5. M Markle AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  5. Now that Yes is at 52%, its time the referendum was called, with a sound well communicated campaign no reason that Yes can't reach 60% during the campaign period.

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  6. Twa hunner days tae Brexit, can the Jock Nat sis save the day for Scotland and keep us subservient tae the EU FASH MOBSTERS.

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    Replies
    1. Yoo fash natsis.

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    2. JOCKS WAE HAE WIE Barnier led.

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    3. Dae ye even ken whit that means ya daftie?

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    4. Am a daftie hoo could a Ken.

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    5. Glesga2 AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    6. I enjoy standing behind nervous people talking to myself.

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    7. Maris Piper BrotherhoodSeptember 13, 2018 at 1:08 AM

      We like standing behind young Scots whispering in their nervous ears.

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    8. Maris Piper Brotherhood AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  7. This kind of result just shows how important pro-independence voting on the list will be in the next Holyrood elections.

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  8. Barny yers hingoot floozieSeptember 12, 2018 at 1:07 AM

    Oh you BIG Jock men, ooh la la my Mick will give you trade deals if you leave the UK Union. Oooh Mick its sore will you do this to Knickerless.

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    1. Barny yers hingoot floozie AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Yoo fash natsis

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    3. Franky Mic's Barny Army..
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  9. What a shame. Poor soul.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. It needs professional help. We've been worried enough about its well-being to recommend that, but all we get in response are impotent rage and insults.

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    2. You are a poor soul Iain T. Pathetic crap hound trying to be a new Micheal Parkinson. Test.

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    3. Prof C AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  10. Comrade Eck RT's main man in the UKSeptember 13, 2018 at 2:55 PM

    The Nova Choke Kids are innocent. It is an MI6 fit up.

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    1. GWC2 Anonymous Hingoot FashSeptember 13, 2018 at 4:25 PM

      If we're not careful Novachok is going to win Wimbledon next year and that will be a real slap in the face for Boris Johnstone

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  11. herman barny yer Herr junkers palSeptember 14, 2018 at 1:40 AM

    Oooh frau knickerless das ist gutt a knee trembler, ve vill fast track you jocko women into our Fourth Reich.

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  12. herman barny yer Herr junkers pal GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  13. Whenever independence gets a wee boost in the polls, btl rapidly becomes the Britnat's 'go to' place to scream in fury and silence.

    Let them, but pass on by lest you are sucked in!

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    Replies
    1. Nicker less dun johnSeptember 14, 2018 at 11:26 PM

      Shut your creme puff gizzard. You Cilla Black female trannie queen.

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    2. Nicker less dun john AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  14. Replies
    1. Congratulations on making more sense than the troll.

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    2. Celia Rodina Arthur Whyte-SempleSeptember 16, 2018 at 10:59 AM

      I shall be no mouse this Xmas. I shall eat of the lemon. ��

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    3. Celia Rodina Arthur Whyte-Semple AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  15. Went along to George Square yesterday to see the Nat si loony tunes.

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  16. Jocko nat sis very quite today. Happy Union Day, jocks!

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Fash Micky barn owl frog eyetie surrender monkeySeptember 19, 2018 at 11:20 PM

      Ya boola boola boola. Tickle me tit. Ya boola boola boola. Kiss me Hilda Grimslit.

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    3. Fash Micky barn owl frog eyetie surrender monkey AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. Barn owls, frogs and monkeys. At least the misfit has an interest in wildlife.

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    5. Among other bizarre tastes...

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