Saturday, September 8, 2018

New YouGov subsample offers reassurance for SNP

So as you'll probably remember, the first polling straw in the wind after the Alex Salmond story broke was a Scottish subsample from a GB-wide YouGov poll, and although it had the SNP in the lead, the party's share of the vote was down to 34% - breaking a long, long sequence of YouGov subsamples that had the SNP in the high 30s or low 40s.  Although no individual subsample can be regarded as reliable, YouGov's Scottish subsamples are unusual in that they appear to be separately structured and weighted - which probably explains the relative stability of the results over time.  So the drop to 34% might have been a coincidental and meaningless blip caused by normal sampling variation - but it might just have been a warning sign that the Salmond story had caused some damage.

As Marcia pointed out last night, a new YouGov subsample is now out which appears to show that normal service has been resumed...

SNP 40%, Conservatives 23%, Labour 21%, Liberal Democrats 9%, UKIP 4%, Greens 3%

If it does turn out that we're back to normal, and that's a big if, it'll be impossible to know whether the dip was real but transitory, or didn't happen at all.  But the local by-election in Fife on Thursday certainly didn't show any sign of a catastrophic drop in SNP support.

Less encouraging are three subsamples from other firms - two from Survation that have the SNP in second place, and one from BMG that have them just about in the lead but in a virtual three-way tie.  But those are based on very small samples, and probably aren't separately weighted in the way that YouGov subsamples are.  For now the YouGov figures are of most interest.

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131 comments:

  1. The buzz on the street today, was encouraging and naebody even mentioned the Salmond case. Labour dropping like a stone while Yessers hand out free Nationals. Bookies now favouring a YES indy result.
    The dark money story nowhere to be seen in the papers. Davidson being kept in cotton wool. She'll be the face of the NO campaign.
    When she has her wee one she'll be all over TV and the papers.
    Desperate stuff mind. Somebody should exclusively reveal that she's a Tory..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only buzz we need is the sound of you buzzing off ramstam.

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    2. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  2. What is needed is a real Scottish poll.

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    1. There you go again Tomlin FFS.

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    2. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    3. Tha Bruce to tha rescue. Threedum!

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    4. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  3. It certainly seems to jive with the feeling on the street. Not at 2015 levels but better than 2017. Whatever troubles the SNP may or may not have, they pale in comparison to suicide belts on the constitution and constant back-biting over anti-Semitism.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Also, how Scots vote for the English parliament (particularly since EVEL and the apartheid that creates with respect to ministerial positions) will not decide Scotland's future. Independence will be decided in Scotland, not England.

      (Scots) Voters broadly appreciate this and, us 'hardcore' aside, just try to influence English elections as best they can. Hence they can vote in 41 Labour MPs (2010) then in the next breath (2011), deliver an SNP landslide and request a referendum on indpendence.

      How people vote for Scotland's parliament (their parliament) under PR well reflects their political views. There is essentially no tactical voting involved; no need for it. How they vote for England's parliament by contrast is massively influenced by a desperate attempt to have influence based on how they believe England is going to vote. 2010...2015...2017 are all variations on this theme and e.g. why the SNP vote 'fell' in 2017 (tactical voting for Labour to stop an apparent huge Tory victory) yet independence 'tomorrow' is polling higher than 2014 and 'independence if brexit goes ahead' has been > 50% since the vote. Deltapoll have just found the same (52% Yes if brexit occurs) as our less Yes friendly panelbase:

      http://www.whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/given-that-the-uk-has-voted-to-leave-which-is-your-preference-regarding-scotlan#table

      (53% Yes when you add the yes together). The yes here is coming from the same people who put yes ahead briefy after the brexit ref but then calmed down and said 'not tomorrow, but in due course if brexit actually happens'.

      That aside, SNP are up in the survation subsumple, meaning they are up in 2/3 recent subsamples. Must be a salmondgate* surge! ;-)


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      #Salmongate will make absolutely no difference to anything, even if it did turn out to be completely true. People just don't make major constitutional decisions on such things - it shows you how deluded the british state is to think they might.

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    2. Yes 53% and growing call the indyref now.

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    3. "jive with the feeling on the street". Yeah, wicked, Mon. Me n me bruvvas in da hood be master.

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  4. You used to do these poll-of-poll summaries, which I found quite sound. Now you appear confident that the less favourable polls for the SNP can be discounted. This is contentious. If you were to include them, how would they influence your former poll-of-polls results? Why not continue that practice?

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    1. Because its the end game for the so-called jocknatsis state and they want to bury their heads in the sand about it.

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    2. You imp-poster. Anonymous am I.

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    3. Anonymous AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. "Why not continue that practice?"
      Why not shut that gaping hole in face. Anita Harris fanny muncher.

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    5. M Markle AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  5. Now that Yes is at 52%, its time the referendum was called, with a sound well communicated campaign no reason that Yes can't reach 60% during the campaign period.

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  6. Twa hunner days tae Brexit, can the Jock Nat sis save the day for Scotland and keep us subservient tae the EU FASH MOBSTERS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yoo fash natsis.

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    2. JOCKS WAE HAE WIE Barnier led.

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    3. Dae ye even ken whit that means ya daftie?

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    4. Am a daftie hoo could a Ken.

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    5. Glesga2 AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    6. I enjoy standing behind nervous people talking to myself.

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    7. Maris Piper BrotherhoodSeptember 13, 2018 at 1:08 AM

      We like standing behind young Scots whispering in their nervous ears.

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    8. Maris Piper Brotherhood AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  7. This kind of result just shows how important pro-independence voting on the list will be in the next Holyrood elections.

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  8. Barny yers hingoot floozieSeptember 12, 2018 at 1:07 AM

    Oh you BIG Jock men, ooh la la my Mick will give you trade deals if you leave the UK Union. Oooh Mick its sore will you do this to Knickerless.

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    1. Barny yers hingoot floozie AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Yoo fash natsis

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    3. Franky Mic's Barny Army..
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  9. What a shame. Poor soul.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. It needs professional help. We've been worried enough about its well-being to recommend that, but all we get in response are impotent rage and insults.

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    2. You are a poor soul Iain T. Pathetic crap hound trying to be a new Micheal Parkinson. Test.

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    3. Prof C AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  10. Comrade Eck RT's main man in the UKSeptember 13, 2018 at 2:55 PM

    The Nova Choke Kids are innocent. It is an MI6 fit up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 Anonymous Hingoot FashSeptember 13, 2018 at 4:25 PM

      If we're not careful Novachok is going to win Wimbledon next year and that will be a real slap in the face for Boris Johnstone

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  11. herman barny yer Herr junkers palSeptember 14, 2018 at 1:40 AM

    Oooh frau knickerless das ist gutt a knee trembler, ve vill fast track you jocko women into our Fourth Reich.

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  12. herman barny yer Herr junkers pal GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  13. Whenever independence gets a wee boost in the polls, btl rapidly becomes the Britnat's 'go to' place to scream in fury and silence.

    Let them, but pass on by lest you are sucked in!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nicker less dun johnSeptember 14, 2018 at 11:26 PM

      Shut your creme puff gizzard. You Cilla Black female trannie queen.

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    2. Nicker less dun john AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  14. Replies
    1. Congratulations on making more sense than the troll.

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    2. Celia Rodina Arthur Whyte-SempleSeptember 16, 2018 at 10:59 AM

      I shall be no mouse this Xmas. I shall eat of the lemon. ��

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    3. Celia Rodina Arthur Whyte-Semple AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  15. Went along to George Square yesterday to see the Nat si loony tunes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  16. Jocko nat sis very quite today. Happy Union Day, jocks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Fash Micky barn owl frog eyetie surrender monkeySeptember 19, 2018 at 11:20 PM

      Ya boola boola boola. Tickle me tit. Ya boola boola boola. Kiss me Hilda Grimslit.

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    3. Fash Micky barn owl frog eyetie surrender monkey AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. Barn owls, frogs and monkeys. At least the misfit has an interest in wildlife.

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    5. Among other bizarre tastes...

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    6. Yeah. Like you want to taste my tommy whoosh.bwierdoh! Test!!

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    7. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    8. Anonymous AKA Larry Grayson

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    9. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  17. Oi, Nonny Mouse! Yor gusset's out of control. Get a grip, missus!

    Hahahahahahaha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  18. The unionist mad dog, needs a wee holiday in Sri Lanka.

    Phone the pauchlin erse Paisley, for a line of broon envelopes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can't take a holiday from its various personal issues, though.

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    2. Oi pooftah! My tommy woosh down your gizzard. Nat si bhum Bhoy.

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    3. Oi nickaless fash bitch! Get Micki frog barn owl to shag you. Sorry he don't do fat ugly pugs.

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    4. M Markle AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  19. As I mentioned above, it can't take a holiday from its many deep-seated personal issues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Twiddle my twig. Split bhoyo. Test!!

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  20. QED. Its impotent rage has finally brought it to the point of incoherence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Get her. Little Miss Tartyfart. You should be in a mental hospital.

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    2. Yeah. She's a space cadet. Total pyscho.

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    3. I agree. She's a headbanger. Mental problems. Speaking to her invisible friend called Qed. Who doesn't exist. Nutball!

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  21. Always fun to watch the troll busily chatting with all its friends...

    ReplyDelete
  22. I got millions of friends. But nobody even knows who you are. Jocko mental head case. Get sectioned four your own good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  23. Its screams of impotent rage are mildly amusing.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Your mildly mental. You need to see a pysciatrist. Your insane and dangeroys

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  25. I made it so angry it could barely type its enraged gibberish.
    That was fun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shove it up your nat si fat arse. Your the type of twat nobody likes. Your a lonely tit that people laugh at and call you scratchy. Parthetic

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    2. And you probably wear split crotch panties to your work. We all know about it. And we laugh our selves sick at you. We call you Pansy Ann Flower.

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    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. "call you scratchy".

      Eh?

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    5. No, I didn't understand that either.
      I put it down to a combination of impotent rage and low blood sugar.

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    6. I like "low blood sugar"; it's very funny. I've tried to alter the letters of "scratchy" to see if it's a misspelling, but can't get it to make sense. Not that we expect the misfit to make much sense.
      Not sure where the "split crotch panties" came from either, but we live and learn.

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    7. Also, there's an exchange a bit further up the page where poor GWC2 seems to be agreeing with him/herself, as though s/he has forgotten what s/he has written. It's an odd one.

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    8. Iain T? Iain Twat. You know where the split crotch panties came from. You boght them off a catelogue of poof gear. You wear them when Nonny Mouse gives you a pugwash. Purv.

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    9. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  26. What a poor, tormented, bitter creature it is.
    Still, the screams of rage are vaguely amusing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As for its barely coherent homophobic ramblings, those tell us far more about the troll than it ever wanted to reveal.

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    2. Oh yes the truths coming out now and you can't face it. You shower of purvs. All you want is the Three Lions to shag you then you'll be happy. You need to see pysciathrists but they can't fix you. Bleeding wierdo HG s. You couldn't get a ride in a fish shop.

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    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  27. It didn't like that at all, and I wasn't even specific about what trolly tells us about itself.
    It would be a suitable case for intensive Freudian analysis, if anyone thought it was worth the time and money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well well its Julie Andrews cutting the bund with Mother Theresa. Pass the gut bucket before I puke my ringer up. "I didnt like that at all". Oh dearie wearie me.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  28. I made it so angry that it failed to read the comment before it vomited another stream of impotent rage.
    It also failed to deny its evident need for professional help.
    I'd call that a result.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Time and moneyy yes that's all you minters have shoving your sifters to each others holes. You proble take my one right up

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  29. I made it so angry and confused that it appears to have stayed up half the night trying to figure out how to respond.
    Now that's funny.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What the hell are sifters and minters!

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    2. I'm not sure it even knows. It gets itself so worked up that it stops being coherent.

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  30. S/he accused me earlier of trying to be a new Michael Parkinson! That puzzled me as does his/her use of "Test!".

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Most of its ravings are puzzling. My theory that they're the product of a mind which has, for most of its life, expected others to do its thinking for it. Bereft of guidance beyond the Redcoat and the Heil, its critical faculties are non-existent. That would certainly explain the lack of coherence.

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  31. You get puzzled cause your a fuck*ng half wit. You should be in Broadmoor

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Poor GWC2. Imagine being that!

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    3. All that impotent rage. The pain of knowing that everyone reading BTL is laughing at it. I can only assume someone's paying it - no-one could be stupid enough to do this for years for free.

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    4. Get back to me when you stop licking each others arsehiles.pair of handbag sniffers. Cut the fucki*g bund. The 2 a you. Gusset's. Test!

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  32. I think I made it cry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Up your greasy arse you fuck*n* arsebandit. State a *ucking play.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  33. Yep. Definitely made it cry.

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  34. You an your boyfriend probly getting up to a pugwash to night. Purvy wirdohs. Getting there gusset's split. Test!!!

    ReplyDelete
  35. Bet your having a great time lifting shirts and munching the mattress.thr pare of you. Disgusting purvs and peafigs

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  36. Still at it are you. Oh yes. You should be arrested for being mental purvs. I bet your watching wierdo stuff on dvd too. The stuff you only get in tenarife down near the big mall. Split bhoyo!

    ReplyDelete
  37. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  38. I think I made it cry again.
    You can tell by the incoherence and impotent rage.

    ReplyDelete
  39. It continues to tell us way too much about its inner life through the sexually explicit nature of its insults.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Earlier we were treated to ramblings featuring "minters, sifters, test and purvs", and now we have "peafigs". I wonder when GWC2's dictionary is due out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Best not trying to understand it.
      Mocking it is more fun.

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  41. You're right. It's hilarious!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Shut your gash you fairy fanny poofs. Stay in your villa creaming the puff off eachother its what you like best. Bet your having a pugwash with Dale Whonton. Write now. Test!

    ReplyDelete
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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  43. It continues to tell us way too much about its inner life through the sexually explicit and obsessive nature of its insults.

    ReplyDelete