Saturday, July 7, 2018

The Brexit delusion over who calls the shots

I don't know about anyone else, but I've been rubbing my eyes in disbelief over the last few hours.  If you've been listening to the mainstream media's verdict on what was agreed at Chequers, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the fabled Brexit deal that Theresa May has been tasked with striking needed only to be a deal with the rest of her own Cabinet, and not with the European Union.   By that rather lower standard, what's just happened might indeed be seen as a stunning personal triumph for the Prime Minister and a guarantee of a (somewhat) softer Brexit, exactly as Stormfront Lite is claiming tonight.  The agreement will only be subject to a few modifications if Brussels raises any objections, reveals the Guardian, which apparently believes that the EU has only a limited consultative role in the whole process.  It's the old imperial delusion - decisions are things that happen in London.  The same commentators who complacently tell us that an indyref is a non-starter because Theresa May will say "no" also apparently believe that it's a mere point of trivia that the EU have already ruled out many elements of May's Brexit proposal.  Back in the real world, without the EU's assent there is no deal at all, and that would mean the hardest of hard Brexits.

A rare injection of realism was provided by Sam Coates of the Times, who acknowledged that the EU may well still insist on a straight choice between a looser Canada-type deal, and the Norway model that would entail the retention of the single market.  But he argued that the Chequers proposal was around 80% of the way towards the Norway model, thus making it that much easier for the Prime Minister to jump towards Norway if forced to choose.  What he didn't expand on is the consequence of such a decision.  It's highly debatable whether the government really are now 80% of the way towards Norway, but even assuming for the sake of argument that they are, the reason they haven't travelled the remaining 20% of the distance is that doing so would completely breach the red lines on formally leaving the single market and ending freedom of movement.  Some say that a soft Brexit is inevitable because there is a natural parliamentary majority for it - but that majority is cross-party in nature, and neither the government nor the Prime Minister are sustained in office on a cross-party basis.  I find it inconceivable that a Tory government led by Theresa May could keep Britain in the European Economic Area or retain freedom of movement, even if they wanted to.

And if that proves to be correct, there are only really four alternatives -

1) The EU backs down and accepts British cherry-picking of the most desirable aspects of the single market and customs union.  This is almost unimaginable because it would create a precedent that Eurosceptics in other member states would try to follow, thus risking the unravelling of the EU.

2) A Canada-type deal is negotiated after all.  This is possible, but it would require turning the super-tanker around, because it's clearly not close to what Theresa May has in mind at the moment.  It would mean a very hard Brexit in any case.

3) There is no deal at all.

4) The Prime Minister's failure to strike a deal (or a deal that is consistent with her red lines) triggers a political crisis that results in a change of leadership and/or a general election.

I can recall at least two previous occasions when we've been told that the PM has made a decisive move towards a soft Brexit, only for us to realise weeks later that there had been no change of any real significance.  I fully expect the same to prove true on this occasion.

 *  *  *

Fundraiser: If you find Scot Goes Pop's polling coverage useful and would like to help it continue, donations can be made via the 2017 fundraiser page.  The initial £7000 target was reached last summer, but one year on that money has all been used up.  I know there are always lots of very worthy pro-independence causes looking for support, so I've held off for as long as I possibly could before actively seeking donations again.

41 comments:

  1. Good analysis. The misplaced optimism of the media is only going to make the ugly truth even harder to swallow. Expect xenophobia to go through the roof. It will all be the fault of nasty foreigners.

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    Replies
    1. Good morning Jocknatsistan. The time is...Oh my god its early at least it is for Scotty Poppers as he won't be up for a few hours yet.

      Here's a little one for him

      Lazy bones, sleepin' in the sun
      How you 'spect to get your day's work done?
      You'll never get your day's work done sleepin' in the noon day sun

      Lazy bones, sleepin' in the shade
      How you 'spect to get your cornmeal made?
      You'll never get your cornmeal made sleepin' in the evening shade

      When taters need sprayin', I bet you keep prayin'
      The bugs fall off the vine;
      And when you go fishin' I bet you keep wishin'
      That the fish won't grab at your line

      Lazy bones, loafin' through the day
      How you 'spect to make a dime that way?
      You'll never make a dime that way. Never heard a word I say

      When taters need sprayin', I bet you keep prayin'
      The bugs fall off the vine;
      And when you go fishin' I bet you keep wishin'
      That the fish won't grab at your line

      Lazy bones, loafin' through the day
      How you 'spect to make a dime that way?
      You'll never make a dime that way. Never heard a word I say


      Delete
    2. Troll needs professional help.

      Delete
    3. Whoa!
      Everybody in the world likes to jockyerlatte
      Ooh, we love it!
      Oh, it makes you happy
      Yeah, it gets you sexy
      It makes you fat but we don't care about that
      Come on!

      Un, dos,
      Un, dos, tres

      Mama she says roly poly,
      Papa he says holy moly
      Everybody wants to jock their latte (A joco joco)
      All the girls want candy candy,
      All the boys get randy randy
      Everybody want to jock their latte

      C’mon, a choco choco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      Everybody say a chocolate
      A joco joco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      Everybody say a chocolate

      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)




      Un, dos, tres

      Mama she says roly poly,
      Papa he says holy moly
      Everybody wants a chocolate (A choco choco)
      All the girls want candy candy,
      All the boys get randy randy
      Everybody want to jock their Latte

      C’mon, a choco choco, clap clap
      A choco choco, slap slap
      Everybody say a chocolate
      A joco joco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      Everybody say a chocolate

      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)




      Chocolate (A choco choco)
      Un, dos, tres

      Now wave to the people on the left hand side
      Now wave to the people on the right hand side
      Now wave to the people with your pretty backside
      Now we do it all again and we feel alright (Feel alright)

      Un, dos,
      Un, dos, tres

      A joco joco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      A joco joco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      A joco joco, clap clap
      A joco joco, slap slap
      Everybody say a jock yer latte

      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)
      jock yer latte (A joco joco)




      Un, dos, tres

      Reply

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    4. Friends in England who work in the NHS have told me services are in crisis. It certainly seems that the psychiatric services are failing their clients.

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  2. Kangaroo says

    There is only one word to describe this new "Plan"; delusional.

    We are edging closer and closer to "No Deal".

    From the get go there was no evidence of any attempt to strike a deal. They constantly threw up strawmen knowing full well that the EU would reject them. Small variations of the same plan is NOT a new plan, it is a con job.

    A "Hard Border" in NI and endless queues at dover will be the result of this folly. The Rees-Moggs will be happy as they make more squillions from playing the market whilst the population gets to eat hormone beef and chlorinated chicken and when they get sick they will have to pay for treatment to the US health providers.

    Nicola must keep waiting until this is nailed into place and there is no possibility of change.

    Do you know where its at with the A50 revocation Court case? If it can be unilaterally revoked then it gives another option to your four points above. One which will be increasingly difficult to ignore.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seek professional help before you do yourself a mischief.

      Delete
    2. The above was directed at our resident oaf before James did some much-valued housekeeping.

      Delete
  3. This is the best non partisan unschewed political analysis you’ve had for a while James. The headline is also non hyperbolic. I like it. You’re spot on! Keep this up and I may consider a healthy donation to your 2018 Fundraiser to keep this worthy forum and blog going!

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    Replies
    1. I may as well be honest with you and say that the hyperbolic headlines will be continuing. (Don't tell anyone, but they're meant ironically...)

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    2. "Ironic" headlines..? Well, I'll go t' foot of our stairs....

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  4. Another good/great blogg and it must be shared,tweeted and posted.Many will read and many will seek to sign up for the blogg but I'll keep sharing it.

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  5. Was reading a piece written by a Tory. He is rather angry that he is relying on the EU rejecting these plans. He indicates he will be even angrier the EU accepts them.

    We live in interesting times...permanently these days.

    I would add that the Orange Wok has always been a favourite Chinese restaurant of mine :)

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    Replies
    1. Scrummy yummy. My favourite TV series remains The Darling Buds Of May, which doesn't feature J K Rees Mogg, although I hear Michael "Include Me" Give may be joining the cast for a remake.

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  6. It's a bit like agreeing a divorce settlement with your lawyer, and then expecting your wife's lawyer to just agree it. In other words you have only agreed with yourself not your husband.

    It's total fantasy!

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  7. Westminster has something in common with Norway: Lemmings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And you have something in common with Norway.

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  8. A "no deal" exit is inevitable, as the UK government cannot accept the constraints of the EU Anti Tax Avoidance Directive which would apply to the financial services sector as from the 1st April 2019 and cripple the economies of the 14 British Tax Havens.

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    Replies
    1. It would cripple the EU member states as tax avoidance is endemic. Remember Greece.

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    2. Tax avoidance is precisely why Greece was crippled

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  9. Too many Yoon idiots trolling you James.

    Agree with your analysis,another GE before year end and to have a hung parliament again. UK is falling apart.

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  10. The Tories can duck and dive,dodge and weave all they like but at the end of the day,the EU will only agree to a deal which is enforceable.
    That means the ECJ having the final say in any dispute.
    How is May going to dress that up?

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    Replies
    1. The five D's of Dodgeball, as anyone who has seen the movie knows, are: Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive, and, um? ....Dodge!!

      Delete
  11. Nice summary, realistic. Thanks!

    The image that comes to mind regarding TM's situation is of someone half-way across the Niagara Falls on a tightrope. The stunt is a pointless folly, but for all that you have to admire their courage for even trying, and their skill to have kept their balance thus far. I mean, everyone was expecting 'body-bags' to come out of Checkers on Friday night. But no, TM has come through and lives to fudge another day. And that does require political skill of a sort at least. So on we go, everyone is on board (for now) but probably no-one is at all happy.

    Meanwhile the onlookers are growing restless, in a "plague on both your houses" way towards both Con. and Lab. There is a real danger that unless someone emerges capable of genuine leadership and direction, who can knock some good sense into the nation, then rogue disaffected elements looking for any scapegoat could seize the initiative. Look at some on the on-line comments. If this trend persists we're looking at fascism plain and simple.

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  12. So that's David David resigned from Cabinet. I don't suppose anyone will notice, but I wonder who's next.

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  13. What's up with these Three Brexiteers resigning? Is it true May only got their agreement by locking them up in our old safe house, taking away phones and posting wrong tel # for taxi service?

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  14. Brexit might be a shambles, but DDexit's hilarious.

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  15. It would be wise at this point for the SNP to prepare for another snap General Election. The long hot summer continues yet with something hanging in the air.

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    Replies
    1. I hope they've been preparing before now!

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  16. DWP Undercouver AgentJuly 9, 2018 at 10:28 PM

    Several Glesga walking sticks seen escorting Jock Irish DWP claimants to well known paddy pubs on the Gallowgate in the Calton. NI documents sold freely for pints of Guinness and Celik away season tickets.

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  17. And then the government blew itself up.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Iris "No Gays In Ulster"/"Yes Kyle" RobinsonJuly 11, 2018 at 1:11 AM

    Poor Arlene Foster seems to have a lot to say in this blog. Pity it's so repetitive. Still... What else does the great stateswoman have to fill her long empty days?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hate. Vast amounts of hate.

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  19. Nogomet dolazi doma.

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    Replies
    1. Its not coming home. England is the home and birthplace of football. Too many immigrants in the team.

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    2. Nae surprise really. Croatia, proud independent nation of just 4 million beats the only non-independent country in the World Cup. Hampered by having an anthem that doesn't mention England about a queen who plays down the 'Queen of England' tag. Jings! Where dae ye start.
      A shrink would say Gareth's boys have a crisis of identity, with England flags having,'ENGLAND'in big letters,juist in case we cuidnae work it oot.
      The flags of every other nation also fly at the UN.
      This treating England like a colony or even a vassal state has got tae stop. Still, at 10 tae 1 for the correct score my £5 is now £55.
      Happy days. Maybe I'll make a wee donation tae English Scots for independence.

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    3. Thanks to the fud who spammed "It's Coming Home" all over this thread for jinxing it :D

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    4. Yep. Thanks, Arlene, for staying off your meds and giving the adults a good laugh. You're a treasure, poppet.

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    5. Still takkin it up the bum Iain. Makes you blind.

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    6. The troll's obsession with anal tells us much more about it than it realises.

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