The ever-delightful Cleggy and the Vow-Meisters have today published their latest full-scale Scottish poll from Survation. It tells a familiar tale, with respondents roughly split down the middle on whether Nicola Sturgeon should call a second independence referendum. A total of 42% think she should, and 49% think she shouldn't. Bear in mind there's a margin of error of 3%, meaning those numbers are close enough to being a statistical tie as makes no difference.
The 42% in favour of a referendum break down as follows: 23% want Ms Sturgeon to call a referendum this autumn, and 19% want her to call it later. The wording of the question on this point is deeply unsatisfactory, and I strongly suspect that most respondents will have wrongly assumed that they were being asked whether a referendum should actually take place this autumn. What Survation are really asking is whether a referendum should merely be announced this autumn, but they don't spell that out, and therefore the results on timing should be taken with a massive dose of salt. It's actually quite impressive that one-quarter of the population seemingly want a referendum to take place in as little as two or three months' time! And of course the 19% who chose the 'later than the autumn' option could mean that they think this winter or next spring would be the appropriate time - they aren't given the opportunity to specify what 'later' actually means.
Disappointingly, Survation have misrepresented their own numbers on this occasion in a much more serious way than the Daily Record have. It's quite rare for a polling company to do that, but the short Survation article on the poll is headlined "Scottish Voters Opposed to Second Independence Referendum". As you can see for yourself, that's quite simply untrue - the 42% in support of a referendum, when combined with the small number of Don't Knows, outnumber the 49% who are opposed. There is no absolute majority in either direction, and it's anyone's guess why Survation are so keen to give the false impression that there is. Maybe a mole from Tory central office has infiltrated their PR department?
The only other result to be published from the poll so far is the straight question on independence, and it shows a modest increase in the Yes vote - albeit one that can potentially be easily explained by the margin of error.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Don't Knows excluded)
Yes 47% (+1)
No 53% (-1)
No 53% (-1)
Presumably we'll see Holyrood and/or Westminster voting intention numbers tomorrow or over the coming days.
Fundraiser: If you find Scot Goes Pop's polling coverage useful and would like to help it continue, donations can be made via the 2017 fundraiser page. The initial £7000 target was reached last summer, but one year on that money has all been used up. I know there are always lots of very worthy pro-independence causes looking for support, so I've held off for as long as I possibly could before actively seeking donations again.
I wish it was higher but 47% is only 4% away. That's nothing in a campaign against the shambles of Brexit and the Tories.
ReplyDeletewould take a referendum tomorrow. who in their right mind wants to live under the heel of westminster anymore. all you have is life under the tories, or life under labour. far better we live under holyrood with smaller parties in coalition, who must work for the greater good, or they fail. independence will come for us, of that i am positive.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you make of the Kantat poll that Prof John Robertson mentioned? He does attach caveats to it in his blog but thinks it interesting on the trends.
ReplyDeleteThe Kantar poll of 18+adults’ Westminster voting intentions, collected between 5th and 9th July 2018, gives the following percentages:
SNP 39%
Conservatives 20%
Labour 19%
Lib Dems 4%
Other 5%
Prefer not to say 14%
That's just a tiny subsample from a GB-wide poll. I've never taken the view that subsamples are completely useless, but if you look at one subsample in isolation you're likely to be misled.
Delete"A total of 42% think she should, and 49% think she shouldn't. Bear in mind there's a margin of error of 3%..."
DeleteCould also mean 52/39; margin of error hopes tend to be straw-clutching. I'd rather that they weren't.
Derek
Are these polls ever going to budge either way?!
ReplyDeletelike last time Union2.0, only during a proper IndyRef campaign. Its the only time 'normal' folk really know it's worth the hassle to realistically consider each case for a) the Union b) Independence
DeleteIts been relegated to 300 years of pub talk for Scots. Only a real democratic decision motivates. But when it happens, boy does it motivate! :)
Hence the Unionist war cry 'No IndyRef2!'
A finger in the dyke. Its coming so everyone better get ready to put forward their best case again...
braco
A finger in the dyke. Ooh, matron!
DeleteGood point, anonymous. But what does that mean for the SNP - have they stopped calling for another ref because:
Delete1: they want Yes to be consistently at 60% first
2: they won’t hold an unofficial one if the UK delays it to after the next Scots Parliament elections
3: they want to see how we feel about the Brexit result first
4: they’re terrified of another loss
...or any other reason you can think of? If they’re going to call one, when do you think it should be, and how long before it actually happens, and will it be an official one or not?
5: Still waiting to see what clusterfuck will come out of Brexit. At the moment any and all of the following appear possible in various combinations:
Delete(a) Conservative leadership election which May may or may not win
(b) if May hangs on, sort of soft-ish but not that soft Brexit based on the Chequers proposals if the ERG-ers back down (that may then get a bit softer if further concessions are needed to get the EU onboard)
(c) hard Brexit if May turns tail again and figures the ERG are the bigger group to placate than the Tory Remain rebels
(d) no deal crash out Brexit - which looks increasingly likely because there's not the numbers in Parliament for anything really (and half the ERG probably want that anyway) and time is getting short
(e) limbo period if A50 extension is somehow agreed when everyone realises (d) is where it's going
(f) Government collapses in paralysis as ERG effectively withdraws its support, general election and/or second EU referendum to try and break the logjam
(g) other stuff which I'm sure we're yet to be lumped with
In that sense indyref might as well hang on a bit longer for the wavefunction to collapse more, although I do agree there's not much time left to wait it out - but it does start to feel like we're getting towards the Brexit endgame.
Anyway I said it before but will say it again: I think I'd prefer to start indyref2 campaigning from 47% Yes than 60% Yes. I think that will foster a better, more positive campaign than potentially hunkering down and trying to hang onto what we've got from a 60% Yes poll.
60%!! You would be having premature ejaculation wetties in yer panties.
DeleteVery interesting and I like your analysis.
DeleteDoes that mean you’re happier with polls at 40-50% than 60%?
I'm happy that getting on for 4 years later, the polls still show Yes as well in the game. There's no element of support having completely melted away, despite the prevailing winds of the UK media. I take that as the glass half full, rather than the glass half empty of wondering why they haven't moved ahead past 50%.
DeleteAs someone said above the polls will probably only show large movements during a proper IndyRef campaign.
It'd be brilliant if the polls were at 60%. There's no point in saying "oh that would be terrible" - that'd be nonsense.
(Although if they were there'd be zero chance of a Section 30, which puts you down other roads, and in any campaign the love bombings and Vows would start on the first day of campaigning, not last minute panics.)
But I stand by my statement that I'd prefer the Yes side to go into an Indyref2 narrowly behind rather than ahead. I just think it would encourage a better mindset of coming up with the proper arguments to try to persuade new people to vote for Yes, and not just trying to hang on to the ones who were already thinking of Yes. But it's just my personal preference.
We can agonise over polls for forever and a day but at some point you just have to go for it and see what happens...
I understand. If she does of course, as a unionist, I'd be hoping for another backlash like in 2017 with the people upset at a Neverendum. I'd also be hoping for a UK delay to see what happens in 2021 and who promises what.
DeleteJust being honest. I respect your view and think it's plausible, I'll just keep campaigning against another 'once in a generation' referendum so soon, official or unofficial.
Kangaroo says
DeleteUnion 2.0 some more info here
http://www.businessforscotland.com/delusional-british-exceptionalism-is-all-thats-complicating-brexit/
What is the case for the Union? Serious question, it seems to have died, WMs total disrespect surely must make even a staunch unionist think again.
1) We’re British too so it’s our identity. 2) We’re stronger, safer, have more influence & richer.
DeleteNone of your Scots pies and bridies for me. Scottish Salmon, Roast Beef followed by Strawberries, Cream and Ice Cream. Protest all you want leftie fatties.
ReplyDeleteFuck off, troll.
DeleteWhere has that "Scotty Popper" troll gone all of a sudden? I know he kept saying that football was coming home, but surely it can't be that...
ReplyDeleteI think it's still here, James. Most of its ravings resemble those of the usual troll.
DeleteI've seen a breakdown of age groups for this poll, but no 16-17 year old's. I suppose we need to wait for the full tables to see if they were included.
ReplyDeleteThe tables have been out since this morning. You're right - unless there's a misprint, it looks like 16-17 year olds were excluded. That's a big retrograde step for Survation
Deletehttp://survation.com/scots-want-second-independence-referendum/ This one from Survation 3 weeks ago for the Record has Yes at 54% including 16-17yo
ReplyDelete