Friday, July 13, 2018

Spectacular Survation poll suggests SNP are on course for landslide

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 42% (+3)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Labour 23% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (+1)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot):

SNP 43% (+1)
Conservatives 24% (-1)
Labour 21% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (regional list ballot):

SNP 33% (+1)
Labour 21% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (-4)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
UKIP 5% (+2)

I've got a few things on today, so I'll update this with analysis when I have a chance, but a couple of quick observations...

Most importantly, this is the most favourable poll for the SNP and the pro-independence parties since the general election.  If these numbers were replicated at the ballot box, there would still be a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, the SNP would regain all of the six Westminster seats they lost to Labour last year, and would even regain the bulk of the twelve seats they lost to the Tories.

Secondly, it appears from the partial datasets published yesterday that 16 and 17 year olds weren't interviewed for the poll.  If that isn't a misprint, it represents a major and inexplicable retrograde step for Survation, who previously have been good about interviewing the correct electorate.  It raises the question of whether the 47% figure for Yes published yesterday may have been a smidgeon too low.

29 comments:

  1. Nearer 49% for indi if you include the youngsters. Typical unionists spinning polls to suit their agenda. If support for indi is at 49% then I don't give a stuff about timing. We go to the polls based on peoples voting intentions not on whether it's October, March or April. That is completely bogus. It's like asking people who they would vote for in an election and then saying when do you want to vote.

    They vote when the Scottish Government calls a referendum not when polls or individuals decide.

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  2. Just like the Glasgow Herald polls, on the level of support for the SNP, twenty-five to thirty years ago.

    They Glasgow Herald always retarded, the vote for the SNP. In 2007, and since, the kye came hame. And the Scottish political scene, changed forever.

    A gradual stealth approach to the big day, is fine by me. The appalling Scottish/UkRap media, can go suck Great Bustard eggs, just like ma granny.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trynasaurus Jockus Stoneage Man emerged from the ice age and thick as shite.

      Delete
    2. Sling yer hook.

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  3. Polls are just a snapshot but I would guess the trend upwards for the SNP in recent weeks will have the opposition worried. Ruth will be telling May now is not the time another rush of blood to the head and a snap election.

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  4. If support for the SNP is at record levels and support for independence is at 47-49%. It means people want change or a choice. The polls on when Scots want a referendum is completely bogus,and it's part of Ruth and the Tories strategy. Now is not the time. It's utter nonsense and I hope the SNP don't get sucked into this narrative.

    They have a mandate, support is at record levels and Brexit is only 8 months away. Call it just do it!

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  5. Its looking better than ever,we must be close to just declaring UDI,OK just hope on my part.The figures are good and looking better each time they come out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UDI would only ever be possible in an emergency, say if there were an unplanned no deal and as a result there were blackouts and food and medicine shortages.

      It's just about possible that in such a disaster that the parliament would push for staying in the single market at any cost, especially if there were warm words from the EU.

      Still I think we will have to win this the hard way.

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    2. Graeme, grow up and pull up yer socks..

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  6. James what are your thoughts on this: http://survation.com/scots-want-second-independence-referendum/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That’s from 2016, unfortunately.

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  7. No it's not. It's weighted on the 2016 vote!

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    Replies
    1. Click the link to the data tables in the first paragraph on that page. It explicitly states that the fieldwork date was the 25th June 2016.

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    2. You are right Michael, it does give that date, but it must be a typo because nobody was asking about Post Brexit attitudes and second referendums in 2016.

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    3. I’d be over the moon to be proved wrong, but I’m afraid I’m not convinced. If you view the source code of the page, it includes the following metadata, stating that it was published on 27th June 2016:

      meta property=”article:published_time” content=”2016-06-27T09:37:20+00:00"

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    4. It's frae 2016: http://web.archive.org/web/20160702152550/http://survation.com/scots-want-second-independence-referendum/

      Delete
  8. Coldsnappa Schytte-WynneJuly 13, 2018 at 7:56 PM

    Isobel Duncan told me in Archibald's shop last week that she was anticipating an increase in support. She's always right, Issy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Isobel can swally.

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    2. She doe's. And did last night.

      Delete
    3. Sling yer hook.

      Delete
  9. Manny Bank CrashJuly 13, 2018 at 9:57 PM

    Poor Jock supremist fascists clutching at straws. Probably David Irving worshippers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Evidence? Links? No? Fucking liar.

      Delete
    2. Manny Bank CrashJuly 14, 2018 at 8:09 PM

      The only link you will get is a Bratwurst up yer erse ya English hating piece of Nat si shit. Mitt Kartoffelern und Zwiebel.

      Delete
    3. The fucking liar trots out its obsession with anal penetration again. This fixation tells us so much more about it than it planned to reveal.

      Delete
    4. Wee Manny son of MannyJuly 14, 2018 at 10:19 PM

      The vibrator is still fixated up yer erse and the battery is dead ya fascist English hater.
      Ram a dan ding dong.

      Delete
    5. No one's interested in your fantasy life, fucking liar. Stop telling us about your anal fixation.

      Delete
    6. There are only 24 hours in a day.

      Delete
  10. You can't make an omlet without breaking egg's.

    ReplyDelete