Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Drama as Panelbase release their datasets : it turns out half of the Scottish public want a second indyref within TWO years, not three

As I mentioned in the post about the new Panelbase poll, I was having to take all the information from John Curtice's What Scotland Thinks website, because Panelbase hadn't released their datasets yet.  It turns out that there were a few inaccuracies on What Scotland Thinks.  I would normally just update the original post, but I think the surgery required would be a bit too drastic in this case - it would even involve altering the title.  Here's what you need to know...

* Panelbase significantly changed their wording from previous polls on the question relating to the timing of a second independence referendum.  They no longer asked about whether there should be a referendum "in the next two or three years" (option 1) or "in about two or three years" (option 2), but instead changed that to "in the next year or two" (option 1) or "in about two years" (option 2).  So the half of respondents who gave a pro-referendum answer were indicating that they wanted an indyref within a maximum of just TWO years, not three.  The most important point here is that the change in wording means that the results are not directly comparable with the previous polls in the series.  Much has been made in certain quarters about the supposed drop in support for an early referendum, but that's based on a misconceived comparison of apples and oranges - of course you're going to get a slightly smaller figure if you ask about a tighter timescale.

* What Scotland Thinks wrongly reported opposition to an early second indyref as standing at 50%.  After rounding, the correct figure is 51%.  The unrounded figures are 49.4% in favour of a referendum within two years, and 50.5% opposed to a referendum "in the next few years" (which is slightly contradictory wording, incidentally).  That remains a statistical tie, in any case - meaning that you can't tell which side is really in the lead, due to the standard 3% margin of error.

* Panelbase haven't changed the wording of their headline independence question, but as a commenter pointed out on the earlier thread, that wording arguably leaves a little to be desired.  It asks people about a scenario in which "the referendum" is held "again" tomorrow.  That conditions people to think of Indyref 2 as a straight re-run of a vote that has already taken place, and possibly steers them back towards the way they voted in September 2014.  It would be better to have a more neutral wording of "If a referendum on Scottish independence was held tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question 'Should Scotland be an independent country?'".  Perhaps that would make no difference in practice, but it would still be the right thing to do as a matter of principle.  Put it this way : if you wanted to find out how people plan to vote in the next UK general election, you wouldn't ask them "if the 2015 general election was held again tomorrow, how would you vote?"

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47 comments:

  1. Theresa Trump and the BrexitearsJanuary 31, 2017 at 6:57 AM

    BostonTweet ‏@BostonTweet Jan 28

    Iranian scientist bound for Boston to begin working on a cure for diabetes at Harvard was barred entry into US today

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 10:59 AM

      Whit chance does a brickies labourer have!

      Delete
    2. Absolute bloody state of this.

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  2. It was me who complained about the word "again" in the question. I'm not too happy about "tomorrow" either.

    I suppose "tomorrow" is the standard ask, but it would be interesting to ask about the more probable scenario of a referendum in Autumn 2018 (or similar).

    I appreciate that's asking people to predict what they'll think some time in the future, but tomorrow is in 2017 and a referendum in 2017 is not going to happen.

    All the hard No people would presumably poll the same. Hard Yes's might have polled for Yes despite the illogical word tomorrow because they want the best poll result. However, the less decided and perhaps the more logical-minded might not.

    On the other hand, I suspect James might think I'm talking bollocks. I might agree.

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  3. on the question of independence it was reported yesterday

    46% yes
    54% no

    do we know how many DK's yet?
    sc

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was 7% DK's. They don't report a "would not vote" number. However, they say the results are for those who reported 8-10 on the "likely to vote" scale - and remember that's on a vote happening tomorrow.

      So I wonder how many said they were below 8 because they were being polled on a vote tomorrow.

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    2. does the poll sample include eu citizens and 16/17 yo's
      sc

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  4. Until the Brexit fallout became so clear, I may have answered "Don't Know" to a question asking me how I would vote if an independence referendum was held "tomorrow".

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  5. "...50.5% opposed to a referendum "in the next few years" (which is slightly contradictory wording, incidentally)"

    "in the next few years" suggests it won't happen soon e.g. in Autumn 2017. So, if I wanted a referendum in Autumn 2017 then I would have answered NO to the above question.

    Point being, a lot of YES supporters could have answered NO in response to the wording of that question because they want a referendum SOONER than "the next few years".

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  6. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 11:04 AM

    I do not get the mentality of those poll results. Why not go for it now? Go fur it get it over and done with instead of listening to the constant bumping of the gums.

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    Replies
    1. 'Quebec City mosque attack suspect known for right-wing online posts

      The suspect in the deadly attack on a Quebec City mosque was known in the city’s activist circles as a right-wing troll who frequently took anti-foreigner and anti-feminist positions and stood up for U.S. President Donald Trump.

      Alexandre Bissonnette, 27, a student at Laval University who lived on a quiet crescent in the Cap-Rouge suburb of Quebec City, faces six counts of first-degree murder for a shooting that killed six people and wounded 19 others. Police initially arrested a person they considered a second suspect but they later backtracked, saying he was a witness.

      Mr. Bissonnette’s online profile and school friendships revealed little interest in extremist politics until last March when French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen visited Quebec City and inspired Mr. Bissonnette to vocal extreme online activism, according to people who clashed with him.'

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  7. GWC would love that...lets give May the chance to wreck the economy and walk hand in hand with Trump into the sunset. Then we will see if GWC is so confident of the Great Britanic Dream winning an indi ref.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 11:58 AM

      I have done my working days. I would not like to see Scots lose their jobs because of tit for tat with the Yanks. We have more to lose than them.

      Delete
    2. Wait until Auntie Cruella bins yer pension...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 4:52 PM

      Useless words. You need to renew yer dildo batteries and get yer erse in gear.
      Yer bottling going for a referendum.

      Delete
    4. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
  8. Serious question: how hard is it to just ask multiple questions on a survey? You already have a survey...ask do you want a referendum held within the next year, within the next two, within three years? , not sure really but we should have it within a few years to settle the question for this generation! , not in this generation , or never. Next, if there was a referendum etc, tommorrow, would you likely vote yea, nay
    , or dont know? Then repeat for each option above til never.

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  9. I thought the most interesting thing to come out of the datasets was that amongst those identified as born in England it still shows that 75% of them will vote No to Scottish Independence . They represent approximately 10% of the resident Scottish population . We failed to persuade them/ address their fears/make them feel genuinely part of our project - and until we do ( if we can) we seem likely to lose the next referendum too . These people need to be persuaded - what I want to know is how we are going to go about that ?

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    Replies
    1. I think "English Scots for Yes" is going from strength to strength. Maybe advice from them on mindsets would be helpful for Yes campaigners.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 8:30 PM

      Your imagination knows no bounds fash bhoy.

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    3. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
  10. This is funny. Downing St desperate for a state visit by Trump because they think they're being replaced as the White House's favourite pet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/31/how-nigel-farages-taunts-prompted-hasty-offer-of-trump-state-visit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 4:48 PM

      You are a liar on this one. May visited the USA on invitation and she returned the compliment.
      I assume you are a hater of the USA as you are of the English.

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    2. I wonder if the president will bother to learn her name this time. Though in fairness to him, why should he? She's the one on her knees, begging bowl extended.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/white-house-spells-theresa-mays-name-wrong-three-times-memo

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 6:47 PM

      Pussy Nat si shitebag, go on call the referendum. I have never laughed so much since 19 September 2014. Go on call it ya yella diahorea.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 6:53 PM

      Knickerless mark two.

      Delete
    5. 'Quebec City mosque attack suspect known for right-wing online posts

      The suspect in the deadly attack on a Quebec City mosque was known in the city’s activist circles as a right-wing troll who frequently took anti-foreigner and anti-feminist positions and stood up for U.S. President Donald Trump.

      Alexandre Bissonnette, 27, a student at Laval University who lived on a quiet crescent in the Cap-Rouge suburb of Quebec City, faces six counts of first-degree murder for a shooting that killed six people and wounded 19 others. Police initially arrested a person they considered a second suspect but they later backtracked, saying he was a witness.

      Mr. Bissonnette’s online profile and school friendships revealed little interest in extremist politics until last March when French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen visited Quebec City and inspired Mr. Bissonnette to vocal extreme online activism, according to people who clashed with him.'

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2January 31, 2017 at 8:10 PM

      muslims attack other muslims on a regular basis. muslims attack anyone who does not want to be a muslim. muslim men tell their women to cover their faces while they shag other women. muslims want to destroy Israel and the Jewish population. Islam is fascist and worse than the Nazis. muslims demand
      total adherance to a bloke called allah who never existed. muslims have exceeded the stupidity of christians. Up yer kilt daftie.

      Delete
    7. Absolute bloody state of this Islamophobe.

      Delete
  11. If I am reading this correctly James:

    "in the next year or two" (option 1) or "in about two years" (option 2)

    are not mutually exclusive data sets. "In about two years" gives flexibility in a downward direction, say a quarter or so, and the other question, "in the next year or two" also has a potential (downside)overlap.

    This isn't a terribly sensible way of asking questions, to me at least.

    Do you have an opinion?

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  12. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 12:04 AM

    George Kerevan Nat si stuttering and stammering in the EU debate. Nat sis in general talking shite. They seem to have been on a bender in London arriving late in the Commons. Fuckin embarrassment tae Scotland. No doubt they will retire to chasing sheep on Hampstead Heath wellies and all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Quebec City mosque attack suspect known for right-wing online posts

      The suspect in the deadly attack on a Quebec City mosque was known in the city’s activist circles as a right-wing troll who frequently took anti-foreigner and anti-feminist positions and stood up for U.S. President Donald Trump.

      Alexandre Bissonnette, 27, a student at Laval University who lived on a quiet crescent in the Cap-Rouge suburb of Quebec City, faces six counts of first-degree murder for a shooting that killed six people and wounded 19 others. Police initially arrested a person they considered a second suspect but they later backtracked, saying he was a witness.

      Mr. Bissonnette’s online profile and school friendships revealed little interest in extremist politics until last March when French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen visited Quebec City and inspired Mr. Bissonnette to vocal extreme online activism, according to people who clashed with him.'

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 1:42 AM

      Canada was a good nation then immigrants who they welcomed started killing them. Strange phenomena.

      Delete
    3. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
  13. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 3:00 AM

    Im the real GWC2 the other idiot is an imposter

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    Replies
    1. Absolute bloody state of this and it's excuses.

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  14. "hen immigrants who they welcomed started killing them. Strange phenomena." Inconvenient that the murderer wasn't an immigrant, ain't it. The poor creature can't get anything right.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 11:15 AM

      Certainly you poor creature as I was referring to past incidents.

      Delete
    2. Evidence, troll? Links?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 4:50 PM

      For starters try the Toronto 18. And do not annoy me with the lnks crap fash bhoy. Dae yer ain homework.

      Delete
    4. Evidence, troll, evidence. Back up your ravings with links.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 6:39 PM

      Read ya raving fash Nat si knob. Up yer kilt.

      Delete
    6. Read what, dearie? You provide no evidence, no links, just another barely literate enraged rant. Never mind. Off you pop, sweetie, it's your turn to write to the Dreary Heil in green ink.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2February 1, 2017 at 9:21 PM

      Read what ye want fash bhoy.

      Delete
    8. Never mind. Off you pop, sweetie, it's your turn to write to the Dreary Heil in green ink.

      Delete