SNP up with ICM, but down with YouGov

The detailed figures from Saturday evening's two UK-wide polls have been released, and once again there are mixed fortunes for the SNP. The YouGov Scottish subsample curiously shows a decline of support for Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats enjoying a six-point jump. Here are the full figures -

Labour 34% (-2)
SNP 22% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 19% (+6)
Conservatives 19% (-3)
Others 5% (+1)

The raw 22% share is clearly disappointing for the SNP, although the overall Labour lead is once again notably more modest than the most recent full-scale YouGov poll indicated. After the previous YouGov subsample had offered a rare glimmer of hope to the Scottish Tories, they once again return to a more familiar sub-20 rating.

ICM do not provide a specific Scottish breakdown, instead lumping the country together with northern England. Here are the latest subsample figures for that highly artificial 'region' -

Labour 38% (-1)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (-2)
SNP 10% (+1)
Others 10% (+4)

This is much better news for the SNP, with 10% being at the upper end of their normal range of support in the ICM 'northern region'.

The remaining question

Well, perhaps I'll indulge in one more brief return to Chekov-watch, since the 'Three Thousand Versts' blogger has returned to the issue of Scottish nationalism. He, refreshingly, does not dismiss the idea of letting the Scottish people decide their own future out of hand, but rehearses the usual spurious objections about timing, 'rigged questions', etc. Once again, is it too much to point out that complaining about the principle of a multi-option referendum is a touch peculiar given that a single-option referendum is the SNP's clearly stated preference, and the multi-option vote is merely a proposed compromise?

Chekov's own suggestion for a 'clear, unambiguous, definitive' question is "Do you wish Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom?". This is at least an improvement on the standard proposal for a 'neutral' question from the likes of Alan Cochrane, ie. "Do you think Scotland should become completely separate from the rest of the United Kingdom?". But I think Chekov really needs to explain why the simple question "do you think Scotland should become an independent country?" is any less 'clear, unambiguous or definitive' than his own suggestion. The idea that anyone does not realise that independence would entail leaving the UK is risible - and if anyone is going to argue that case, I could just as easily make the point that Chekov's question is absolutely not unambiguous, because 'leaving the UK' could in the literal sense imply joining another country (Norway for instance?) every bit as much as it could imply becoming an independent state.

Final thought - what does it say about a self-styled 'liberal unionist' when he finds himself in so much agreement with Alan Cochrane? Cochrane is a unionist, certainly...

Ipsos-Mori sensation : SNP lead Labour in Westminster voting intentions

On this blog I normally focus only on the Scottish subsamples of UK-wide polls, because the relatively rare full-scale Scottish polls are widely covered elsewhere. But the results of this particular full poll from Ipsos-Mori deserve to be shouted from the rooftops by everyone sympathetic to the SNP, because it blows the prevailing media narrative of recent days and weeks utterly out of the water. The SNP's hopes of even modest gains at the general election were, we were told, fading fast. But here we have a poll that not only shows a decent SNP lead in Holyrood voting intention (which will ease the jitters caused by the two recent YouGov polls), but also - remarkably - shows the party retaining a slender lead over Labour for Westminster. Here are the full figures -

Westminster

SNP 34% (+1)
Labour 32% (+5)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-2)
Others 6% (-2)

Holyrood (constituency ballot)

SNP 36% (-2)
Labour 32% (+7)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-3)
Conservatives 12% (-3)
Others 8% (+1)

There do not appear to be any voting intention figures for the Holyrood list vote. The fieldwork concluded just over a week ago, which crucially places it well after Glasgow NE.