Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Ipsos-Mori sensation : SNP lead Labour in Westminster voting intentions

On this blog I normally focus only on the Scottish subsamples of UK-wide polls, because the relatively rare full-scale Scottish polls are widely covered elsewhere. But the results of this particular full poll from Ipsos-Mori deserve to be shouted from the rooftops by everyone sympathetic to the SNP, because it blows the prevailing media narrative of recent days and weeks utterly out of the water. The SNP's hopes of even modest gains at the general election were, we were told, fading fast. But here we have a poll that not only shows a decent SNP lead in Holyrood voting intention (which will ease the jitters caused by the two recent YouGov polls), but also - remarkably - shows the party retaining a slender lead over Labour for Westminster. Here are the full figures -


SNP 34% (+1)
Labour 32% (+5)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-2)
Others 6% (-2)

Holyrood (constituency ballot)

SNP 36% (-2)
Labour 32% (+7)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-3)
Conservatives 12% (-3)
Others 8% (+1)

There do not appear to be any voting intention figures for the Holyrood list vote. The fieldwork concluded just over a week ago, which crucially places it well after Glasgow NE.


  1. His Excellency, President Ezio Auditore da Firenze of the Scottish RepublicDecember 2, 2009 at 6:06 PM

    James my auld chum!

    As much as it PAINS me to talk about PB at all after my banning, do you think the old 'Smithson rule' relating to David Cameron, i.e. if Cameron is on tv the Tory vote will go up, might also apply to Alex Salmond?

    Even if voters see him defending supposed mistakes or bad results, they are reminded that he exists, that he is head and shoulders above his competition and that he is the only man that should lead Scotland (apart from me, of course!)

  2. Could well be right, Ezio. And, after the slightly painful day the SNP had yesterday, let's hope so!

    Actually, judging by the results of the other questions on this poll, the one place where the Smithson rule about Cameron definitely won't be applying is Scotland - Dave has a net satisfaction rating of minus eleven!

  3. Good news indeed, but Id rather see a few more than this to reverse my own assement that the SNP is on something a slow slide at the moment.

    But the sitution is I think very fluid

  4. around this time in 2004 the same polling firm had the SNP at 13%, they polled about 18% in the 2005 election.