I've read a couple of unionist-flavoured articles over the last few hours that have posed similar questions in my mind, so I thought I'd take a look at them together. Firstly, Stewart Whyte in a post at Tory Hoose entitled 'Do The SNP Care Enough About Scotland To Lose With Dignity?' (a 'when did you stop beating your wife' query if ever there was one) -
"The big question is what will the Referendum do to Scotland. Will it be the cathartic settlement of the constitutional issue that will give the Scots peace for a generation? Will it allow the SNP to continue on their current path to becoming a proper political party where governing is more important than a single issue? Or will their frustration and anger at the failure of their raison d’etre tear them apart in bitterness and recrimination.
And will they take Scotland down with them? For be in no doubt the eyes of the world are watching."
Now, what does 'taking Scotland down with them' actually mean in concrete terms? What would it look like? What reason is there to suspect that such a non-specific yet catastrophic event would actually happen? We don't know.
In particular, I'm struggling to see why a party that is 'tearing itself apart in bitterness and recrimination' would actually remain in power and thus be capable of taking anyone else down with them, but perhaps Mr Whyte has more faith in the SNP's unshakeable popularity than I do. This is an uncomfortable truth for the unionist parties, but the example of Quebec suggests that the SNP would have an excellent chance of a) remaining united following a referendum defeat, and b) winning the subsequent election. The Parti Québécois retained power in the election following each of the two referendum defeats in 1980 and 1995. To be fair, there's a much more plausible case for thinking the SNP might fracture following a referendum victory, but I'm not sure that's any greater a comfort for Mr Whyte.
Turning now to Jim Gallagher in the Guardian -
"...what it means to have a political union, a deeply integrated economic union and – hardest of all to pin down – a social union: not just the personal and family connections that separation might disrupt..."
Again, how in specific, practical terms would independence "disrupt" personal and family connections? What would that disruption look like? Has Mr Gallagher never heard of email, mobile phones and EasyJet, or does he think most communication between family members takes place by means of carrier pigeons that are in future liable to be shot down by the Salmond Border Militia?
Now back to Mr Whyte -
"For lose the Referendum they surely will. Last week’s opinion poll had the Yes on 33%, No on 57% and Don’t Knows on 10%. The killer for the Nationalists is the last number – there are just not enough people who have not made up their minds for them to win."
It's difficult to know where to start with nonsense like this. Clearly Stewart isn't a regular reader of Anthony Wells' strictures at UK Polling Report. First of all, there's the obvious point that the figures Stewart quotes aren't especially meaningful, because the poll in question was commissioned by the No campaign, who quite understandably went to the pollster with a track record of producing the most favourable results for No, and then got them to ask a loaded question. But even if the figures were meaningful, they still wouldn't have the significance Stewart seems to think they do. The 'don't know' figures are actually very similar to what is always seen in general election polls - so if that means the opinion of everyone who doesn't declare themselves a 'don't know' can be assumed to be absolutely set in stone, then clearly we can spare ourselves the trouble and expense of going through a UK general election in 2015, because we already 'know' the Tories will lose. In truth, polls aren't (and don't claim to be) predictions. They are snapshots of how people would vote if the election or referendum was held NOW. But the referendum isn't being held now, any more than the 2015 general election is being held now. That means there are far, far, far more votes up for grabs than the self-defined 'don't knows'. Many of the people who answered 'Yes' or 'No' will have barely even considered the issue yet, and there is a long campaign period ahead of us.
Back again to Mr Gallagher -
"Scots don't actually want to leave the UK: only a quarter want independence."
Wait a minute - hasn't Stewart just told us the figure is 33%? Crikey, at this rate it'll be zero before the day is out.
"Salmond's success has been to take control of it [Holyrood] – but at the same time failing at Westminster. In the 2010 general election, Labour polled more than twice as many votes as the SNP, and gained 41 MPs to their six. The voters knew exactly what they were doing. Fifty SNP MPs could have pushed for secession. Holyrood cannot."
Er, no, Jim, it's the other way round. Fifty SNP MPs couldn't have done a huge amount about holding a referendum, because they could have been easily outvoted by the other 600 (almost entirely non-Scottish) MPs. That's kind of the case for independence in a nutshell, isn't it? By contrast, 69 SNP members of the Scottish Parliament do seem to be in a rather strong position to "push for secession". Or is the fact that we're going to have an independence referendum a figment of my imagination?
Oh, and the reason Scots didn't vote SNP at the Westminster election is not the one Jim suggests, but instead that a) there were three rigged TV leaders' debates that totally excluded one (just one) of Scotland's four main parties, and b) people believed Jim Murphy's claim that voting Labour in Scotland would stop the Tories taking power in London. Well, that worked a treat, didn't it?
"Unionism may be right, but it needs to craft a story that speaks to the heart as well as the head."
One thing we can probably all agree on is that unionism is very much "right". It's been a long, long time since a unionist government at Westminster was in any meaningful sense "left" - hence the reason the anti-independence side will have a problem once people start contemplating the consequences of a No vote, and the decades of unbroken right-wing rule from London that would lie ahead.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Sunday, May 27, 2012
You have never been to my show, you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet
Well, I think that may have been one of the best ever Eurovisions. The average standard of the entries was higher than usual, the staging couldn't be faulted, and the presenters were only very mildly irritating, so it doesn't get a lot better than that. The only ingredient that was missing was tension in the voting, but that can't really be legislated for.
Although I wasn't a believer in what seemed to be blindingly obvious to 70% of people, ie. that Sweden would win, I do think it's a great result for the contest. The dance track hoodoo has been lifted at last, and in some style. And it hardly bears thinking about what the consequences would have been had the top two been reversed - with a Russian win, half the entrants next year might well have been novelty acts of some description.
Sweden now join France, the UK and Luxembourg as the joint second most successful country in the contest's history, with five wins. In fact, it could be argued that Sweden now have a slightly better record than the UK, because one of the UK's five wins was the four-way tie in 1969, at a time when it hadn't occurred to anyone to dream up a tie-break rule!
I don't know if we've learned to accept it as a fact of life, or if it just seems less noticeable when there is a western European winner, but there doesn't seem to have been as many complaints about political voting this year. The problem was still very much present, though, and once again has only been slightly diluted by the presence of the juries. There were a few occasions when a country that I assumed was destined for a neighbourly twelve points only received eight or ten, which was presumably the jury influence. But more often than not the expected twelve arrived on cue. It's probably more of an issue at the bottom end of the leaderboard, where some countries have a natural 'buffer' of guaranteed points that leave them more or less immune from finishing bottom, whereas countries like the UK clearly don't.
It'll be fascinating to see the split between the juries and the public vote. It always seemed inevitable that Russia would do much, much worse with the juries, which leaves open the possibility that the public vote may actually have been quite tight, in spite of Sweden's landslide. I'll also be intrigued to see how the UK did with the juries, because it's become known that Engelbert Humperdinck had a shocker during Friday night's dress rehearsal, which is what the juries based their votes on. I've never liked that system - it means that the result is to a significant extent decided by something the viewing public never actually get to see. "The Hump" was in much finer voice tonight, so it's possible that if that had been his definitive performance, he might have had a better result (although probably not much better).
Either way, it's back to the drawing board for the United Kingdom, for approximately the 794th time. Luckily, if all goes according to plan in 2014, this won't be Scotland's problem for very much longer!
As always seems to happen on Eurovision weekend, Scot Goes Pop received its highest number of visitors of the year so far on Saturday. Thanks to everyone who dropped by from all over Europe and beyond, and apologies that my prediction was so rubbish for the second year in a row! My only crumb of comfort is that at least I noticed that Serbia was an excellent song and was likely to have a good result, something that seemed to be a source of utter bafflement for Graham Norton throughout the voting...
Although I wasn't a believer in what seemed to be blindingly obvious to 70% of people, ie. that Sweden would win, I do think it's a great result for the contest. The dance track hoodoo has been lifted at last, and in some style. And it hardly bears thinking about what the consequences would have been had the top two been reversed - with a Russian win, half the entrants next year might well have been novelty acts of some description.
Sweden now join France, the UK and Luxembourg as the joint second most successful country in the contest's history, with five wins. In fact, it could be argued that Sweden now have a slightly better record than the UK, because one of the UK's five wins was the four-way tie in 1969, at a time when it hadn't occurred to anyone to dream up a tie-break rule!
I don't know if we've learned to accept it as a fact of life, or if it just seems less noticeable when there is a western European winner, but there doesn't seem to have been as many complaints about political voting this year. The problem was still very much present, though, and once again has only been slightly diluted by the presence of the juries. There were a few occasions when a country that I assumed was destined for a neighbourly twelve points only received eight or ten, which was presumably the jury influence. But more often than not the expected twelve arrived on cue. It's probably more of an issue at the bottom end of the leaderboard, where some countries have a natural 'buffer' of guaranteed points that leave them more or less immune from finishing bottom, whereas countries like the UK clearly don't.
It'll be fascinating to see the split between the juries and the public vote. It always seemed inevitable that Russia would do much, much worse with the juries, which leaves open the possibility that the public vote may actually have been quite tight, in spite of Sweden's landslide. I'll also be intrigued to see how the UK did with the juries, because it's become known that Engelbert Humperdinck had a shocker during Friday night's dress rehearsal, which is what the juries based their votes on. I've never liked that system - it means that the result is to a significant extent decided by something the viewing public never actually get to see. "The Hump" was in much finer voice tonight, so it's possible that if that had been his definitive performance, he might have had a better result (although probably not much better).
Either way, it's back to the drawing board for the United Kingdom, for approximately the 794th time. Luckily, if all goes according to plan in 2014, this won't be Scotland's problem for very much longer!
As always seems to happen on Eurovision weekend, Scot Goes Pop received its highest number of visitors of the year so far on Saturday. Thanks to everyone who dropped by from all over Europe and beyond, and apologies that my prediction was so rubbish for the second year in a row! My only crumb of comfort is that at least I noticed that Serbia was an excellent song and was likely to have a good result, something that seemed to be a source of utter bafflement for Graham Norton throughout the voting...
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Eurovision 2012 prediction : Saturday's final
My starting-point for this prediction (which may well look very foolish in 24 hours' time) is that the bookies have called it completely wrong - I just don't see how either Sweden or Russia are going to win the contest. Sweden are unlikely to win because dance tracks always underperform at Eurovision, including those tipped for victory (Xandee finished a miserable 22nd, Kate Ryan failed to even qualify for the final). Russia are unlikely to win because juries comprised of music professionals hold 50% of the vote, and they're simply not going to go for a novelty act with dodgy singing, however beguiling it may be.
Looking back twelve months, it's quite astonishing how big a divergence there was between the juries and the public vote. Italy were the runaway winners with the juries, but finished just 11th on the televoting results, leading to an overall result of second. The disparity for Denmark and Slovenia was even more extreme - they were placed third and fourth respectively by the juries, but were a mere 18th and 22nd on the public vote. I must admit I'd completely forgotten about the Slovenian song until I looked it up a few minutes ago. It's really good, worth far more than 22nd place, so there's not much doubt that the juries were doing the job they were paid to do, and pushing the classier songs up the leaderboard. Realistically, therefore, for a song to have a chance of winning it needs to appeal to two very different constituencies, and attract a high level of support from both juries and the public. Azerbaijan were the only country that managed that feat last year, and were thus bound to win (not that I predicted it, of course!).
So which countries are likely to have that dual appeal this year? Let's start by considering what will appeal to the juries. It wouldn't surprise me if for the second year in a row they give the nod to Italy. As you may have noticed, my opinion of the Italian song has been 'evolving' at a rate of knots over the last two or three weeks (as has my understanding of one of the key lyrics - it turns out that it's actually "you're an independent grown man after all"!). I now belatedly recognise that it's dripping with class, and I think the professional juries are bound to go with it, regardless of how much it might be overshadowed by the 'showier' entries later on in the running order. At the absolute minimum, I expect them to place it in the top three. It's a touch harder to judge how music professionals will react to an ethnic ballad like Serbia's - it depends what type of music professionals they are, I suppose. But surely they'll recognise the quality? And strange though it may seem, I also think the juries will go with Ireland. Jedward were actually quite a bit more popular with the juries than with the public last year, and Waterline is a stronger song than Lipstick.
I'm not sure the juries will be quite so kind to the contest's dark horses, such as Ukraine and Turkey, but nor do I necessarily think they'll push those songs out of contention completely.
Now let's move to the public vote, where all sorts of factors that are (or should be) irrelevant to the juries suddenly come into play with a vengeance - such as running order, visual gimmickry and political voting. And that's where I think Italy may run into a problem. Certainly there's no doubt that they have a much less favourable draw than Ireland, Serbia, Ukraine, Spain and Turkey. They also have fewer natural allies than three of those five countries. From the point of view of the visual impact of the performance, it's harder to make a direct comparison, because we've already seen the majority of the leading contenders in the semi-finals, but not Italy or Spain. I have seen dodgy video footage of a couple of Italy's rehearsals, for what that's worth. The backdrop looked stunning, and Nina Zilli's vocals were near-perfect, but she did seem to be holding back slightly on selling the performance visually, which makes it impossible to draw too many conclusions. She also didn't bother with the high note in the final "femmina", which is a pity, as it's a memorable feature in the studio version.
Although I was slightly disappointed with the visual impact of Serbia on Thursday night, Željko Joksimović sounded fantastic, as he always does. Unlike Italy, we don't even need to pose the question of whether he can attract public votes - he has a formidable track record of doing so in three previous contests, with very similar songs to this one. Some of that might be classed as political voting, but votes are votes. And he has a fantastic draw. So the stars seem to be aligned for Serbia this year, and my gut feeling is that they're the most likely winners. But it wouldn't surprise me if Italy or Ireland won, and Spain, Ukraine and Turkey all just about have a chance as well. Turkey are potentially this year's Marie N (the Latvian performer in 2002 who won with a striptease rather than a song) - they're carried by just one very strong visual gimmick, but it's not entirely inconceivable that could be enough.
On balance, this is how I see it working out...
Winners - Serbia (Nije Ljubav Stvar by Željko Joksimović)
2nd - Italy (L'Amore È Femmina by Nina Zilli)
3rd - Ireland (Waterline by Jedward)
4th - Russia (Party for Everybody by Buranovskiye Babushki)
5th - Spain (Quédate Conmigo by Pastora Soler)
Possible dark horses - Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland
Italy's second place is based on the assumption that they'll win the jury vote - if they don't, obviously their overall placing could be quite a bit lower. Until a few days ago, I'd have had the UK in the top five, but I'm not even putting them/us in the 'dark horse' category because Engelbert Humperdinck's performances in the rehearsals have been so patchy.
My own favourite songs are (in no particular order) Serbia, Italy, Iceland and Spain, but because of my personal rule that I only vote for songs performed entirely in a language other than English, I'll be voting for Serbia and Spain. Which I have some regrets about - the segments of L'Amore È Femmina that are sung in Italian are an amazing showcase for that language, and a perfect antidote to Terry Wogan's theory that "pop is an anglophone thing".
Last thought - I don't know if the Azerbaijanis are persevering with Leyla Aliyeva as the sole 'results host' tomorrow night, but I certainly hope so. She has an old-school panache about her that reminds me of female Eurovision hosts from a bygone era.
* * *
Lib Dem blogger Caron Lindsay on the launch of Yes Scotland -
"Nothing I have seen from anyone in the SNP has come close to persuading me that there is any need for independence other than they want it. As a highlander, I have as much of an issue about being told what to do by Edinburgh as I do London."
You see, this is one of the stock unionist arguments that baffles me. Edinburgh rule is just as bad and remote as London rule...therefore by definition London rule is better. How exactly does that logic work?
Looking back twelve months, it's quite astonishing how big a divergence there was between the juries and the public vote. Italy were the runaway winners with the juries, but finished just 11th on the televoting results, leading to an overall result of second. The disparity for Denmark and Slovenia was even more extreme - they were placed third and fourth respectively by the juries, but were a mere 18th and 22nd on the public vote. I must admit I'd completely forgotten about the Slovenian song until I looked it up a few minutes ago. It's really good, worth far more than 22nd place, so there's not much doubt that the juries were doing the job they were paid to do, and pushing the classier songs up the leaderboard. Realistically, therefore, for a song to have a chance of winning it needs to appeal to two very different constituencies, and attract a high level of support from both juries and the public. Azerbaijan were the only country that managed that feat last year, and were thus bound to win (not that I predicted it, of course!).
So which countries are likely to have that dual appeal this year? Let's start by considering what will appeal to the juries. It wouldn't surprise me if for the second year in a row they give the nod to Italy. As you may have noticed, my opinion of the Italian song has been 'evolving' at a rate of knots over the last two or three weeks (as has my understanding of one of the key lyrics - it turns out that it's actually "you're an independent grown man after all"!). I now belatedly recognise that it's dripping with class, and I think the professional juries are bound to go with it, regardless of how much it might be overshadowed by the 'showier' entries later on in the running order. At the absolute minimum, I expect them to place it in the top three. It's a touch harder to judge how music professionals will react to an ethnic ballad like Serbia's - it depends what type of music professionals they are, I suppose. But surely they'll recognise the quality? And strange though it may seem, I also think the juries will go with Ireland. Jedward were actually quite a bit more popular with the juries than with the public last year, and Waterline is a stronger song than Lipstick.
I'm not sure the juries will be quite so kind to the contest's dark horses, such as Ukraine and Turkey, but nor do I necessarily think they'll push those songs out of contention completely.
Now let's move to the public vote, where all sorts of factors that are (or should be) irrelevant to the juries suddenly come into play with a vengeance - such as running order, visual gimmickry and political voting. And that's where I think Italy may run into a problem. Certainly there's no doubt that they have a much less favourable draw than Ireland, Serbia, Ukraine, Spain and Turkey. They also have fewer natural allies than three of those five countries. From the point of view of the visual impact of the performance, it's harder to make a direct comparison, because we've already seen the majority of the leading contenders in the semi-finals, but not Italy or Spain. I have seen dodgy video footage of a couple of Italy's rehearsals, for what that's worth. The backdrop looked stunning, and Nina Zilli's vocals were near-perfect, but she did seem to be holding back slightly on selling the performance visually, which makes it impossible to draw too many conclusions. She also didn't bother with the high note in the final "femmina", which is a pity, as it's a memorable feature in the studio version.
Although I was slightly disappointed with the visual impact of Serbia on Thursday night, Željko Joksimović sounded fantastic, as he always does. Unlike Italy, we don't even need to pose the question of whether he can attract public votes - he has a formidable track record of doing so in three previous contests, with very similar songs to this one. Some of that might be classed as political voting, but votes are votes. And he has a fantastic draw. So the stars seem to be aligned for Serbia this year, and my gut feeling is that they're the most likely winners. But it wouldn't surprise me if Italy or Ireland won, and Spain, Ukraine and Turkey all just about have a chance as well. Turkey are potentially this year's Marie N (the Latvian performer in 2002 who won with a striptease rather than a song) - they're carried by just one very strong visual gimmick, but it's not entirely inconceivable that could be enough.
On balance, this is how I see it working out...
Winners - Serbia (Nije Ljubav Stvar by Željko Joksimović)
2nd - Italy (L'Amore È Femmina by Nina Zilli)
3rd - Ireland (Waterline by Jedward)
4th - Russia (Party for Everybody by Buranovskiye Babushki)
5th - Spain (Quédate Conmigo by Pastora Soler)
Possible dark horses - Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland
Italy's second place is based on the assumption that they'll win the jury vote - if they don't, obviously their overall placing could be quite a bit lower. Until a few days ago, I'd have had the UK in the top five, but I'm not even putting them/us in the 'dark horse' category because Engelbert Humperdinck's performances in the rehearsals have been so patchy.
My own favourite songs are (in no particular order) Serbia, Italy, Iceland and Spain, but because of my personal rule that I only vote for songs performed entirely in a language other than English, I'll be voting for Serbia and Spain. Which I have some regrets about - the segments of L'Amore È Femmina that are sung in Italian are an amazing showcase for that language, and a perfect antidote to Terry Wogan's theory that "pop is an anglophone thing".
Last thought - I don't know if the Azerbaijanis are persevering with Leyla Aliyeva as the sole 'results host' tomorrow night, but I certainly hope so. She has an old-school panache about her that reminds me of female Eurovision hosts from a bygone era.
* * *
Lib Dem blogger Caron Lindsay on the launch of Yes Scotland -
"Nothing I have seen from anyone in the SNP has come close to persuading me that there is any need for independence other than they want it. As a highlander, I have as much of an issue about being told what to do by Edinburgh as I do London."
You see, this is one of the stock unionist arguments that baffles me. Edinburgh rule is just as bad and remote as London rule...therefore by definition London rule is better. How exactly does that logic work?
Friday, May 25, 2012
Even with a biased question, the No campaign's own poll shows an increase in support for independence
Well, we've seen polls published by broadcasters, newspapers, political parties, charities and trade unions before. But this must be the first poll in history to be "published by Alistair Darling". I suppose needs must when you're desperately trying to dream up a wheeze to sabotage the Yes campaign launch. Just a pity the former Chancellor couldn't find a question biased enough that it didn't produce a one-point increase in support for independence since the last YouGov poll -
Yes 33% (+1)
No 57% (+4)
These figures of course aren't remotely comparable, because the last YouGov poll had a question with relatively neutral wording (albeit even then they couldn't quite bring themselves not to tinker with the proposed referendum wording slightly). But the more important point is that YouGov are well-known for producing figures more favourable for the No side than many other pollsters do, regardless of the question asked. The reason for this isn't quite clear - it may be an artifact of the internet panel system, or there may be some other factor at play. Either way, it's no surprise that Darling and chums made a beeline for the company that would produce the most palatable figures, but it doesn't tell us anything new (other than the fact that Alistair Darling is now a publisher).
* * *
Scottish football fans have long enjoyed pitting their wits against each other to see who can most accurately guess how many seconds into a routine Switzerland v Cyprus game it will be before Clive Tyldesley finds an excuse to mention that England won the World Cup in 1966. I'd suggest we can have similar fun with the Daily Telegraph's reporting of the independence referendum over the next couple of years - 3 points if you can correctly guess how many times an article will refer to the pro-independence side as "separatists", 5 points if you can guess the number of times the anti-independence side will be referred to as "pro-UK", and 7 points if you can guess the number of crushing "blows" for Alex Salmond that the article identifies.
Along with these comfortingly familiar gems, the article on the Darling poll also informs us that the SNP's allies in the Yes campaign are "minor left-wing parties". Hmmm. Given that the Liberal Democrats only have three more Holyrood seats than the Greens, does that mean the Tories and Labour will be joined in the No campaign by "a minor right-wing party"?
Oh, and apparently the lead for the No side in the poll means that "the United Kingdom is under no threat of breaking up". I presume by the same token that Labour's handsome poll lead in the summer of 2007 means there is absolutely no danger that we're now living under a Tory-led government. Phew, what a relief.
Yes 33% (+1)
No 57% (+4)
These figures of course aren't remotely comparable, because the last YouGov poll had a question with relatively neutral wording (albeit even then they couldn't quite bring themselves not to tinker with the proposed referendum wording slightly). But the more important point is that YouGov are well-known for producing figures more favourable for the No side than many other pollsters do, regardless of the question asked. The reason for this isn't quite clear - it may be an artifact of the internet panel system, or there may be some other factor at play. Either way, it's no surprise that Darling and chums made a beeline for the company that would produce the most palatable figures, but it doesn't tell us anything new (other than the fact that Alistair Darling is now a publisher).
* * *
Scottish football fans have long enjoyed pitting their wits against each other to see who can most accurately guess how many seconds into a routine Switzerland v Cyprus game it will be before Clive Tyldesley finds an excuse to mention that England won the World Cup in 1966. I'd suggest we can have similar fun with the Daily Telegraph's reporting of the independence referendum over the next couple of years - 3 points if you can correctly guess how many times an article will refer to the pro-independence side as "separatists", 5 points if you can guess the number of times the anti-independence side will be referred to as "pro-UK", and 7 points if you can guess the number of crushing "blows" for Alex Salmond that the article identifies.
Along with these comfortingly familiar gems, the article on the Darling poll also informs us that the SNP's allies in the Yes campaign are "minor left-wing parties". Hmmm. Given that the Liberal Democrats only have three more Holyrood seats than the Greens, does that mean the Tories and Labour will be joined in the No campaign by "a minor right-wing party"?
Oh, and apparently the lead for the No side in the poll means that "the United Kingdom is under no threat of breaking up". I presume by the same token that Labour's handsome poll lead in the summer of 2007 means there is absolutely no danger that we're now living under a Tory-led government. Phew, what a relief.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Pirates, high seas, cautions, cannons and potions
I only got 7 out of 10 right this time, but it was such a finely-balanced semi-final that it would have been tough to do an awful lot better. Having said that, my cogitations about which one out of Slovenia and Croatia would 'kill' the other now look a bit silly, as neither made it through! I must say I'm mildly baffled as to why the Balkan bloc vote preferred Bosnia to both of them, but perhaps Bosnia's favourable draw was a factor. Lithuania's even more favourable draw may also explain that country's qualification, which I didn't see coming at all. Estonia's success, on the other hand, isn't at all difficult to understand, and it's so nice to see a country that stuck religiously to the English language during its golden Eurovision years now prospering with a ballad sung entirely in Estonian.
The one country I had pencilled in to qualify that I'm delighted to be proved wrong about is Georgia - it was an absolute dog's breakfast of an entry, but it stuck out like a sore thumb and I just couldn't see past it.
One thing tonight's show brought home to me is the limited use that the YouTube videos of the rehearsals are, because they don't give you the whole picture. I had been extremely impressed by what I'd seen of the Serbian rehearsals, but it just doesn't work as well on screen as I thought it would - there's too much in long-shot. By way of contrast, Ukraine and Turkey are two examples of songs that I personally don't think are that great, but which really leaped out of the screen tonight. In particular, Turkey is such a distinctive and quirky entry that I think it now goes into the final as a real contender - if not for outright victory, then perhaps for a top three finish.
A couple of final thoughts -
1) Could someone please tell Scott Mills that Herzegovina is not pronounced with an 'ee' sound before the 'a'?
2) How can the Yes campaign in the independence referendum even dream of launching themselves on the Friday of Eurovision week? There aren't enough hours in the day for such excitement.
The one country I had pencilled in to qualify that I'm delighted to be proved wrong about is Georgia - it was an absolute dog's breakfast of an entry, but it stuck out like a sore thumb and I just couldn't see past it.
One thing tonight's show brought home to me is the limited use that the YouTube videos of the rehearsals are, because they don't give you the whole picture. I had been extremely impressed by what I'd seen of the Serbian rehearsals, but it just doesn't work as well on screen as I thought it would - there's too much in long-shot. By way of contrast, Ukraine and Turkey are two examples of songs that I personally don't think are that great, but which really leaped out of the screen tonight. In particular, Turkey is such a distinctive and quirky entry that I think it now goes into the final as a real contender - if not for outright victory, then perhaps for a top three finish.
A couple of final thoughts -
1) Could someone please tell Scott Mills that Herzegovina is not pronounced with an 'ee' sound before the 'a'?
2) How can the Yes campaign in the independence referendum even dream of launching themselves on the Friday of Eurovision week? There aren't enough hours in the day for such excitement.
Eurovision 2012 prediction : Thursday's semi-final
Well, this one has been hurting my head. There are no fewer than five Balkan ballads that are all perfectly plausible qualifiers, but it's hard to believe that all of them will make it through. There's a school of thought that holds that because Slovenia and Croatia are next to each other in the running order, one of them is bound to 'kill' the other. But if so, it's not entirely clear which one it will be - Croatia is the stronger song, but Slovenia has the more eye-catching staging. There again, Slovenia is the only ex-Yugoslav country that hasn't discernibly benefited from the Balkan bloc vote over the years. Anyway, it may be my heart talking (given that I'm a fan of both songs), but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I expect both Croatia and Slovenia to just about sneak through. If at least one of the Balkan ballads is going to miss out, Bosnia and Herzegovina looks like marginally the most probable candidate.
The Georgian entry is atrocious, but I've pencilled it in as a qualifier, if for no other reason than it will stand out amongst all the ballad mush. So that leaves me with the following ten -
Turkey
Serbia
Sweden
Malta
Norway
Slovenia
Macedonia
Georgia
Ukraine
Croatia
You could just as easily make a case for having Estonia, Lithuania and the Netherlands on that list. It's certainly a much more unpredictable semi-final than Tuesday's, and should be really exciting. The quality will be a bit higher as well.
This is also the semi-final in which UK viewers can vote - although Serbia is my favourite, I think I'll be going with Croatia, as they'll probably be more in need of help.
The Georgian entry is atrocious, but I've pencilled it in as a qualifier, if for no other reason than it will stand out amongst all the ballad mush. So that leaves me with the following ten -
Turkey
Serbia
Sweden
Malta
Norway
Slovenia
Macedonia
Georgia
Ukraine
Croatia
You could just as easily make a case for having Estonia, Lithuania and the Netherlands on that list. It's certainly a much more unpredictable semi-final than Tuesday's, and should be really exciting. The quality will be a bit higher as well.
This is also the semi-final in which UK viewers can vote - although Serbia is my favourite, I think I'll be going with Croatia, as they'll probably be more in need of help.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
This trumpet makes you mine, girl
Well, the first Eurovision semi-final was the perfect tonic after a manic day - it was the usual masterful blend of the good, the bad, and the barking mad. On the latter front, the opening entry from Montenegro may have been a joke that didn't quite work, but I can't fault the performer's comic timing when Scott Mills asked him what he was doing at the contest, and he replied "it's a mistake". In fact, I think that may have been my highlight of the evening.
My prediction was pretty close to being spot-on - I got nine out of ten right, with Albania the one I overlooked. Belgium would probably have been a worthier qualifier, but I should have remembered that Albania do have a formidable record of qualifying almost regardless of what they enter. If nothing else, it's good for the contest (in my opinion) to have one more song not in English through to the final.
I was a bit irked that the BBC commentators suggested that Hungary's qualification was a surprise, and that it wasn't the strongest entry. In my view, it was more a case of a strong song making it through in spite of some uninspired staging. I had been a bit concerned that the glitzier performances from Austria, Switzerland and Israel might squeeze Hungary out.
One half of Jedward (no idea which one) looked ready to burst into tears when six qualifiers had been revealed, and Ireland wasn't one of them. As with previous years, it's a bit hard to believe that the order in which the qualifiers were read out was completely random, with two of the most obvious countries left for last. And it's also very hard to see the point of the 'golden ticket' wheeze to reveal the final qualifier if the camera doesn't even zoom in when the envelope is opened.
Scott Mills mentioned during the show that Italy are now the favourites to win the contest. That doesn't baffle me as much as it would have done a few weeks ago, as the song gets under the skin a bit more with each successive listen - I had the words "you're an independent woman after all" (which may well become my new life motto) rattling around in my head on the bus home this evening. But the fact that it's taken me so long to 'get it' makes me wonder if it really has much chance of winning on Saturday, when most people will be hearing it for the first time. In fact, one of the fascinations of this year's final is that so many of the strongest songs are pre-qualified, which will make it much harder to deduce the likely outcome from the semi-final performances alone.
* * *
Thanks to everyone who voted in the Scot Goes Pop Eurovision poll. Here are the full results -
Ireland 23%
Serbia 20%
France 20%
Spain 20%
United Kingdom 17%
Iceland 14%
Sweden 14%
Turkey 14%
Italy 14%
Denmark 11%
Hungary 11%
Israel 8%
Bulgaria 8%
Norway 8%
Slovenia 8%
Latvia 5%
Albania 5%
Romania 5%
Switzerland 5%
Netherlands 5%
Malta 5%
Finland 5%
Lithuania 5%
San Marino 5%
Germany 5%
Montenegro 2%
Belgium 2%
Cyprus 2%
Austria 2%
Moldova 2%
Macedonia 2%
Belarus 2%
Portugal 2%
Croatia 2%
Estonia 2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2%
Azerbaijan 2%
All Others 0%
In case anyone is wondering, the reason the percentages add up to far more than 100 is that multi-voting was enabled!
* * *
I very nearly wrote a post the other day entitled "Note for Americans : Johann Lamont does not speak for the people of Scotland. Source : Election results." But I didn't need to, because Doug Daniel said everything I wanted to say on the subject, and more.
My prediction was pretty close to being spot-on - I got nine out of ten right, with Albania the one I overlooked. Belgium would probably have been a worthier qualifier, but I should have remembered that Albania do have a formidable record of qualifying almost regardless of what they enter. If nothing else, it's good for the contest (in my opinion) to have one more song not in English through to the final.
I was a bit irked that the BBC commentators suggested that Hungary's qualification was a surprise, and that it wasn't the strongest entry. In my view, it was more a case of a strong song making it through in spite of some uninspired staging. I had been a bit concerned that the glitzier performances from Austria, Switzerland and Israel might squeeze Hungary out.
One half of Jedward (no idea which one) looked ready to burst into tears when six qualifiers had been revealed, and Ireland wasn't one of them. As with previous years, it's a bit hard to believe that the order in which the qualifiers were read out was completely random, with two of the most obvious countries left for last. And it's also very hard to see the point of the 'golden ticket' wheeze to reveal the final qualifier if the camera doesn't even zoom in when the envelope is opened.
Scott Mills mentioned during the show that Italy are now the favourites to win the contest. That doesn't baffle me as much as it would have done a few weeks ago, as the song gets under the skin a bit more with each successive listen - I had the words "you're an independent woman after all" (which may well become my new life motto) rattling around in my head on the bus home this evening. But the fact that it's taken me so long to 'get it' makes me wonder if it really has much chance of winning on Saturday, when most people will be hearing it for the first time. In fact, one of the fascinations of this year's final is that so many of the strongest songs are pre-qualified, which will make it much harder to deduce the likely outcome from the semi-final performances alone.
* * *
Thanks to everyone who voted in the Scot Goes Pop Eurovision poll. Here are the full results -
Ireland 23%
Serbia 20%
France 20%
Spain 20%
United Kingdom 17%
Iceland 14%
Sweden 14%
Turkey 14%
Italy 14%
Denmark 11%
Hungary 11%
Israel 8%
Bulgaria 8%
Norway 8%
Slovenia 8%
Latvia 5%
Albania 5%
Romania 5%
Switzerland 5%
Netherlands 5%
Malta 5%
Finland 5%
Lithuania 5%
San Marino 5%
Germany 5%
Montenegro 2%
Belgium 2%
Cyprus 2%
Austria 2%
Moldova 2%
Macedonia 2%
Belarus 2%
Portugal 2%
Croatia 2%
Estonia 2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2%
Azerbaijan 2%
All Others 0%
In case anyone is wondering, the reason the percentages add up to far more than 100 is that multi-voting was enabled!
* * *
I very nearly wrote a post the other day entitled "Note for Americans : Johann Lamont does not speak for the people of Scotland. Source : Election results." But I didn't need to, because Doug Daniel said everything I wanted to say on the subject, and more.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Eurovision 2012 prediction : Tuesday's semi-final
I'm in a mad rush at the moment, so for now I'll just do my traditional prediction, and write something more substantial after the event! In no particular order, here are the ten countries I think will qualify this evening -
Cyprus
Greece
Moldova
Ireland
Iceland
Russia
Belgium
Hungary
Romania
Denmark
Cyprus
Greece
Moldova
Ireland
Iceland
Russia
Belgium
Hungary
Romania
Denmark
Friday, May 18, 2012
Poll : What are your favourite songs of Eurovision 2012?
The last time I ran a poll like this was way back when Scot Goes Pop was more or less an out-and-out Eurovision blog. I fully appreciate that 95% of regular readers probably won't have an opinion at all, so if the poll attracts only three votes you can safely assume that not much search engine traffic has been generated by this post! The voting form can be found at the top of the sidebar, and the poll will close on Monday - the day before the first semi-final. Multi-voting is enabled, so you can vote for as many songs an you like, but not for the same song twice!
In no particular order, here is my own selection of favourites -
CROATIA (Nebo by Nina Badrić)
This was the first song I really fell in love with during this year's national final season, and the new arrangement is even better. It's not going to win, but in line with my personal rule of only voting for songs exclusively sung in a language other than English, I may well vote for it in the second semi-final.
ICELAND (Never Forget by Gréta Salóme & Jónsi)
Jónsi deserved a much higher placing in his first appearance in the contest a few years back, and he has an excellent chance of making up for it this time round. I was a bit worried that the song might lose some of its drama after being switched from Icelandic to English (that problem has occurred many times before), but in fact it sounds just as good.
IRELAND (Waterline by Jedward)
I know I made a snide remark about Jedward in my last post about the contest, but in truth I've always rated their chances. Lipstick was a bit of an acquired taste last year, but Waterline has a much more instant hook. The million dollar question is whether the live performance will be up to scratch - miracles were achieved twelve months ago, but reports from the rehearsals so far are mixed.
A scary thought - would an Irish win guarantee a third Jedward entry to the contest next year?
SERBIA (Nije Ljubav Stvar by Željko Joksimović)
Željko Joksimović has been the contest's 'magician' in recent years. He finished second as the representative of Serbia and Montenegro in 2004, but could easily have won - he was later revealed to have beaten the eventual winner in the semi-final. A year later, he penned the gorgeous song Jutro for Jelena Tomašević, which almost certainly would have won the country's national selection had political voting not got in the way (although someone of my political persuasions can hardly blame the Montenegrins for seizing the opportunity to make a point!). He returned to the contest in 2006 as the writer of the Bosnia and Herzegovina entry - another cracker, which finished third. He sat out 2007, which ironically was the year that Serbia finally won. But that turn of fate enabled him to achieve a unique first in 2008 - he was the contest's co-host in Belgrade, and he also wrote the Serbian entry (Oro performed by Jelena Tomašević), which finished sixth.
This year he returns as both songwriter and performer, and a lot of people seem to be assuming that he'll be the bridemaid and not the bride once again. I'm not so sure - the song matches his usual high standards, is probably more accessible than Oro, and in any case he's guaranteed to have both Russia and the Balkan bloc vote right behind him.
(In researching this post, I consulted Željko Joksimović's biography on Wikipedia, and realised to my amusement that I had written some of it and forgotten all about it!)
DENMARK (Should've Known Better by Soluna Samay)
A lovely, gentle, bitter-sweet and extremely catchy song, which I couldn't get out of my head for several days in February. However, it's not desperately original, and with it being so low-key I think it may struggle to grab people on a first listen.
UNITED KINGDOM (Love Will Set You Free by Engelbert Humperdinck)
I was fully expecting to be underwhelmed by this song, but in fact the first thought that went through my head when I heard it was "Olsen Brothers". That's not to say I expect it to win (after all, even the Olsens came a cropper in 2005), but I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the top five.
HUNGARY (Sound of Our Hearts by Compact Disco)
This was an early fan favourite, but seems to have fallen off everyone's radar. It's still as catchy as it ever was, and it's another one that I struggled to get out of my head after I first heard it.
SPAIN (Quédate Conmigo by Pastora Soler)
This is the second year in a row that I'll be cheering on Spain, albeit the song could hardly be more different from Que Me Quiten Lo Bailao. Undoubtedly the best ballad of the field, and if this doesn't get the result it deserves I'll begin to wonder if the televoters of Europe have got something against Spain or the Spanish language.
SWEDEN (Euphoria by Loreen)
Although I think Sweden's chances of winning are being vastly overestimated, that's not to say I don't rate the song itself. In many ways it would be a fantastic breakthrough for the contest if a dance track of this quality could win, but I don't think it's going to happen.
FRANCE (Echo by Anggun)
Normally when I say "France have got a great song, but haven't got a hope of winning", it means they've entered a powerful ballad. But this year they've excelled themselves with a very worthy entry that breaks the traditional mould.
SLOVENIA (Verjamem by Eva Boto)
Will probably be overshadowed by the country's Balkan neighbours, but is beautifully sung, and boasted one of the most eye-catching stagings in the national final season. I'll be gutted if they dispense with the head-dress.
* * *
UPDATE : The poll is now closed - you can find the results HERE.
In no particular order, here is my own selection of favourites -
CROATIA (Nebo by Nina Badrić)
This was the first song I really fell in love with during this year's national final season, and the new arrangement is even better. It's not going to win, but in line with my personal rule of only voting for songs exclusively sung in a language other than English, I may well vote for it in the second semi-final.
ICELAND (Never Forget by Gréta Salóme & Jónsi)
Jónsi deserved a much higher placing in his first appearance in the contest a few years back, and he has an excellent chance of making up for it this time round. I was a bit worried that the song might lose some of its drama after being switched from Icelandic to English (that problem has occurred many times before), but in fact it sounds just as good.
IRELAND (Waterline by Jedward)
I know I made a snide remark about Jedward in my last post about the contest, but in truth I've always rated their chances. Lipstick was a bit of an acquired taste last year, but Waterline has a much more instant hook. The million dollar question is whether the live performance will be up to scratch - miracles were achieved twelve months ago, but reports from the rehearsals so far are mixed.
A scary thought - would an Irish win guarantee a third Jedward entry to the contest next year?
SERBIA (Nije Ljubav Stvar by Željko Joksimović)
Željko Joksimović has been the contest's 'magician' in recent years. He finished second as the representative of Serbia and Montenegro in 2004, but could easily have won - he was later revealed to have beaten the eventual winner in the semi-final. A year later, he penned the gorgeous song Jutro for Jelena Tomašević, which almost certainly would have won the country's national selection had political voting not got in the way (although someone of my political persuasions can hardly blame the Montenegrins for seizing the opportunity to make a point!). He returned to the contest in 2006 as the writer of the Bosnia and Herzegovina entry - another cracker, which finished third. He sat out 2007, which ironically was the year that Serbia finally won. But that turn of fate enabled him to achieve a unique first in 2008 - he was the contest's co-host in Belgrade, and he also wrote the Serbian entry (Oro performed by Jelena Tomašević), which finished sixth.
This year he returns as both songwriter and performer, and a lot of people seem to be assuming that he'll be the bridemaid and not the bride once again. I'm not so sure - the song matches his usual high standards, is probably more accessible than Oro, and in any case he's guaranteed to have both Russia and the Balkan bloc vote right behind him.
(In researching this post, I consulted Željko Joksimović's biography on Wikipedia, and realised to my amusement that I had written some of it and forgotten all about it!)
DENMARK (Should've Known Better by Soluna Samay)
A lovely, gentle, bitter-sweet and extremely catchy song, which I couldn't get out of my head for several days in February. However, it's not desperately original, and with it being so low-key I think it may struggle to grab people on a first listen.
UNITED KINGDOM (Love Will Set You Free by Engelbert Humperdinck)
I was fully expecting to be underwhelmed by this song, but in fact the first thought that went through my head when I heard it was "Olsen Brothers". That's not to say I expect it to win (after all, even the Olsens came a cropper in 2005), but I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the top five.
HUNGARY (Sound of Our Hearts by Compact Disco)
This was an early fan favourite, but seems to have fallen off everyone's radar. It's still as catchy as it ever was, and it's another one that I struggled to get out of my head after I first heard it.
SPAIN (Quédate Conmigo by Pastora Soler)
This is the second year in a row that I'll be cheering on Spain, albeit the song could hardly be more different from Que Me Quiten Lo Bailao. Undoubtedly the best ballad of the field, and if this doesn't get the result it deserves I'll begin to wonder if the televoters of Europe have got something against Spain or the Spanish language.
SWEDEN (Euphoria by Loreen)
Although I think Sweden's chances of winning are being vastly overestimated, that's not to say I don't rate the song itself. In many ways it would be a fantastic breakthrough for the contest if a dance track of this quality could win, but I don't think it's going to happen.
FRANCE (Echo by Anggun)
Normally when I say "France have got a great song, but haven't got a hope of winning", it means they've entered a powerful ballad. But this year they've excelled themselves with a very worthy entry that breaks the traditional mould.
SLOVENIA (Verjamem by Eva Boto)
Will probably be overshadowed by the country's Balkan neighbours, but is beautifully sung, and boasted one of the most eye-catching stagings in the national final season. I'll be gutted if they dispense with the head-dress.
* * *
UPDATE : The poll is now closed - you can find the results HERE.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Is it every Scot's patriotic duty to show an interest in an Under-23 match between Egypt and Belarus?
Intriguing news that UEFA have encouraged Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland to ponder the possibility of a joint bid for Euro 2020. As exciting as it will be to see the Commonwealth Games return to this country in two years' time, I think most people would agree that the European Championships are an even bigger event, and in any case would break completely new ground for Scotland in a way that hosting the Commonwealth Games again will not.
From what I vaguely recall of the reasons that the Scottish/Irish bid for Euro 2008 failed, though, there seemed to be an (inexplicable) perception at UEFA that supporters in this part of the world are too parochial to turn out for matches in which their own national team isn't involved. That puts an intriguing twist on the lack of interest that has been generated in the Olympic matches that will be played at Hampden this summer - three preliminary-stage matches in the men's competition, four preliminary-stage matches in the women's competition, and one women's quarter-final.
Of course the underwhelming response to date is entirely the fault of the English FA and the BOA, who through their cynical actions have somehow managed to engineer a situation in which it seems deeply unpatriotic for any Scottish football supporter to embrace any aspect of the Olympic football tournament, even where the Greater England team is not directly involved. But if we now know that UEFA's eyes are on us with a view to 2020, perhaps we should consider the bigger picture and realise just what a thrilling prospect that Under-23 showdown between Egypt and Belarus will be.
From what I vaguely recall of the reasons that the Scottish/Irish bid for Euro 2008 failed, though, there seemed to be an (inexplicable) perception at UEFA that supporters in this part of the world are too parochial to turn out for matches in which their own national team isn't involved. That puts an intriguing twist on the lack of interest that has been generated in the Olympic matches that will be played at Hampden this summer - three preliminary-stage matches in the men's competition, four preliminary-stage matches in the women's competition, and one women's quarter-final.
Of course the underwhelming response to date is entirely the fault of the English FA and the BOA, who through their cynical actions have somehow managed to engineer a situation in which it seems deeply unpatriotic for any Scottish football supporter to embrace any aspect of the Olympic football tournament, even where the Greater England team is not directly involved. But if we now know that UEFA's eyes are on us with a view to 2020, perhaps we should consider the bigger picture and realise just what a thrilling prospect that Under-23 showdown between Egypt and Belarus will be.
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