Well done to Michael Crick for pointing out one reason (of many) why the Tories' logic for opposing electoral reform is somewhat hypocritical - the rules for their own leadership contests. Since the 'magic circle' was abolished by Sir Alec Douglas-Home in the mid-1960s and replaced by open leadership elections, there have been many alterations to the exact rules. And yet no system used by the party has ever allowed a simple plurality for the leading candidate in a leadership ballot to be sufficient - if no outright majority is obtained, an additional ballot has always been necessary. Indeed, in the famous contest between Margaret Thatcher and Michael Heseltine in 1990, not even an outright majority was sufficient on the first ballot. Thatcher achieved well over 50% of the vote, and yet a second ballot was automatically triggered because she did not - quite - have a lead of 15% or more over her nearest challenger.
It's worth pointing out that the Conservatives don't make these rules for show, or to indulge anyone. They do it because it is considered so essential for any leader that emerges to command the clear confidence of a majority of the party - when so much is at stake, there can be no room for 'back-door' or 'through-the-middle' winners. Curious, then, that the Conservatives aren't willing to apply the same principle to the electorate at large, when something as important as the governance of the whole country is at stake.
For the avoidance of doubt, though, I'm not in any way an apologist for Gordon Brown's new-found love of the Alternative Vote system. The paradox is that, while it certainly would ensure that any individual MP has the backing of a majority of his or her constituents, it's no better (in some cases it might be even worse) than the present system at ensuring that the government have the backing of a majority of the electorate.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Could Saddam have averted war by looking slightly more guilty?
I finally caught up with Hans Blix's appearance on Hardtalk last night, and it brought home to me the most surreal (and that's quite an accolade) aspect of Britain's after-the-fact rationalisation for why an unprovoked invasion was justified without the presence of WMDs. The interviewer Jonathan Charles put this proposition to Blix - "the problem for Britain surely was that Saddam was never going to admit to having disarmed, because it would have made him look weak in the eyes of his enemies". Blix gave a rather bemused smile, and pointed out "but Saddam told us that he didn't have WMDs".
Charles seemed momentarily confused by this, but of course on that point there is no doubt at all. The most memorable of the many occasions when Saddam told the world he didn't have WMDs was in his interview with Tony Benn, who simply asked him "does Iraq possess weapons of mass destruction?" At the subsequent PMQs, Tony Blair was sneeringly dismissive of Benn's interrogation technique - "I don't think Jeremy Paxman will be fearing for his job". But it seems in retrospect this was one of those instances where a simple, direct question elicits the most honest reply. It's what you might call the 'Fern Britton principle'.
So all this begs the question - what precisely is the difference between Saddam saying something on the one hand, and 'admitting' it on the other? Would it have helped if he had looked slightly more guilty when he said it? On such distinctions, we are expected to believe, hinged Britain's decision to launch an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country.
Charles seemed momentarily confused by this, but of course on that point there is no doubt at all. The most memorable of the many occasions when Saddam told the world he didn't have WMDs was in his interview with Tony Benn, who simply asked him "does Iraq possess weapons of mass destruction?" At the subsequent PMQs, Tony Blair was sneeringly dismissive of Benn's interrogation technique - "I don't think Jeremy Paxman will be fearing for his job". But it seems in retrospect this was one of those instances where a simple, direct question elicits the most honest reply. It's what you might call the 'Fern Britton principle'.
So all this begs the question - what precisely is the difference between Saddam saying something on the one hand, and 'admitting' it on the other? Would it have helped if he had looked slightly more guilty when he said it? On such distinctions, we are expected to believe, hinged Britain's decision to launch an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country.
World Exclusive : Some serious stuff is going down, man
I'm not a regular reader of 'Yapping Yousuf' Hamid, so many thanks to Ezio for pointing me in the direction of his latest scoop. I've always prided myself on keeping my finger firmly on the pulse, so I certainly would never have forgiven myself for missing this jaw-dropping exclusive - Nicola Sturgeon has convened a meeting of the Glasgow City Council SNP group.
That's it.
A small suggestion for Yousuf - I appreciate that genuine exclusives (particularly the golden ones that really catch out your political opponents) are quite difficult for bloggers to come by, however well-connected, so no-one is really going to blame you for slightly over-hyping the facts you actually do have. But to pull that trick off successfully it might be better not to openly concede "I've no idea what's going on" and then to finish your 'story' with the following appeal to readers - "If anyone knows what is going on then please do get in touch!"
But the fun doesn't end there. Yousuf adds a disclaimer that he rarely blogs about pieces of gossip, and only does so "if they are serious and if I am sure that I can believe them". This might have a touch more credibility if he hadn't already revealed that his sole rationale for believing there is any significance to Sturgeon's meeting is that it "must be serious" if she is making the time for it despite "firefighting on so many fronts". Now, for this logic to stand up to scrutiny, Yousuf does of course first have to establish that Nicola is indeed fighting on a number of fronts. So what are they? According to Yousuf, they include boundary changes to her constituency, the fact that she was 'in the cabinet that scrapped GARL', the fact that she once said something unspecified but really rather nasty about Steven Purcell, and the fact that the SNP group on Glasgow City Council 'didn't offer any resistance' to the SNP cabinet scrapping GARL. Crikey. With a diary chock-full of crises like that, Nicola really doesn't have time to do anything, does she?
Future Yapping Yousuf exclusives -
Sturgeon sneezes. No politician in the almighty mess that Sturgeon's in has the time to expel phlegm from her nasal passages. Only possible conclusion - the noise from the sneeze was intended to cover up the latest Salmond gaffe. Don't know what the gaffe actually was, but were YOU in the area? Do let me know what you heard.
Sturgeon visits Mum. Come on, does anyone seriously think a politician facing calamity on so many fronts would choose to waste an hour visiting her mother? Only possible conclusion - her mother is planning to defect to Labour, and Sturgeon is locked in desperate last-minute crisis talks to prevent that happening. Are YOU Nicola Sturgeon's mother's next-door-neighbour? Does she have thin walls?
Sturgeon goes to the hairdressers. Are we seriously expected to believe that a woman at the centre of the most perfect political storm the western world has witnessed since Watergate would stop off for a quick trim? Of course not. Now, I must admit I don't know what she was up to this time - perhaps her hair was planning to defect to Labour? OK, maybe not, but there must be something. So, do YOU work at Daphne's Scissor Palace?
That's it.
A small suggestion for Yousuf - I appreciate that genuine exclusives (particularly the golden ones that really catch out your political opponents) are quite difficult for bloggers to come by, however well-connected, so no-one is really going to blame you for slightly over-hyping the facts you actually do have. But to pull that trick off successfully it might be better not to openly concede "I've no idea what's going on" and then to finish your 'story' with the following appeal to readers - "If anyone knows what is going on then please do get in touch!"
But the fun doesn't end there. Yousuf adds a disclaimer that he rarely blogs about pieces of gossip, and only does so "if they are serious and if I am sure that I can believe them". This might have a touch more credibility if he hadn't already revealed that his sole rationale for believing there is any significance to Sturgeon's meeting is that it "must be serious" if she is making the time for it despite "firefighting on so many fronts". Now, for this logic to stand up to scrutiny, Yousuf does of course first have to establish that Nicola is indeed fighting on a number of fronts. So what are they? According to Yousuf, they include boundary changes to her constituency, the fact that she was 'in the cabinet that scrapped GARL', the fact that she once said something unspecified but really rather nasty about Steven Purcell, and the fact that the SNP group on Glasgow City Council 'didn't offer any resistance' to the SNP cabinet scrapping GARL. Crikey. With a diary chock-full of crises like that, Nicola really doesn't have time to do anything, does she?
Future Yapping Yousuf exclusives -
Sturgeon sneezes. No politician in the almighty mess that Sturgeon's in has the time to expel phlegm from her nasal passages. Only possible conclusion - the noise from the sneeze was intended to cover up the latest Salmond gaffe. Don't know what the gaffe actually was, but were YOU in the area? Do let me know what you heard.
Sturgeon visits Mum. Come on, does anyone seriously think a politician facing calamity on so many fronts would choose to waste an hour visiting her mother? Only possible conclusion - her mother is planning to defect to Labour, and Sturgeon is locked in desperate last-minute crisis talks to prevent that happening. Are YOU Nicola Sturgeon's mother's next-door-neighbour? Does she have thin walls?
Sturgeon goes to the hairdressers. Are we seriously expected to believe that a woman at the centre of the most perfect political storm the western world has witnessed since Watergate would stop off for a quick trim? Of course not. Now, I must admit I don't know what she was up to this time - perhaps her hair was planning to defect to Labour? OK, maybe not, but there must be something. So, do YOU work at Daphne's Scissor Palace?
Monday, February 8, 2010
Location, location, location
Rather amusing to see Tom Harris take one his blog's regular SNP posters to task for criticising a Labour MP on the grounds of having once served as a councillor well away from his current constituency. Harris observes - "you come across this nonsense a lot: only someone who has lived in a constituency all his life is deemed suitable as its MP".
Quite so. After all, for the last time we all 'came across this nonsense' we only have to cast our minds back three months or so to the Glasgow NE by-election, when Labour supporters (well, let's call a spade a spade - Kezia Dugdale) set off on a comical crusade to establish that the maternity ward where SNP candidate David Kerr was born in 1973 may have been - horrors - just outside the constituency boundaries, thereby apparently rendering his candidacy totally unsuitable!
Quite so. After all, for the last time we all 'came across this nonsense' we only have to cast our minds back three months or so to the Glasgow NE by-election, when Labour supporters (well, let's call a spade a spade - Kezia Dugdale) set off on a comical crusade to establish that the maternity ward where SNP candidate David Kerr was born in 1973 may have been - horrors - just outside the constituency boundaries, thereby apparently rendering his candidacy totally unsuitable!
Eleven years on from devolution, ITN can't distinguish between England and Britain
I happened to be half-watching the ITV News earlier this evening, and I caught the following line in relation to a health story - "Gordon Brown has promised one-to-one care for all 1.6 million patients in Britain". Now, I don't know anything about the details of this story, but I don't actually need to - ITN have got it wrong. For the story to be accurate, the Prime Minister would have to be proposing ripping up the Scotland Act, the Northern Ireland Act and the Government of Wales Act. Health in those three countries is a devolved matter and wholly outwith Gordon Brown's control - end of story.
But is this just a 'chippy Scot' point? Categorically not. We are now just two months at most away from the commencement of a general election campaign, during which the electorate will be relying on the media to play the vital role of cutting through the dubious claims of the political parties and providing accurate information upon which people can decide their vote. It's hardly going to assist the democratic process if the voters are led to believe it's somehow appropriate to take into account party pledges on the NHS that are utterly irrelevant in Scotland.
But is this just a 'chippy Scot' point? Categorically not. We are now just two months at most away from the commencement of a general election campaign, during which the electorate will be relying on the media to play the vital role of cutting through the dubious claims of the political parties and providing accurate information upon which people can decide their vote. It's hardly going to assist the democratic process if the voters are led to believe it's somehow appropriate to take into account party pledges on the NHS that are utterly irrelevant in Scotland.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
A cynic he may be, but Brown doesn't emote on cue
Looking around my old haunt today, I notice that many of the Conservative posters are spreading poison about the revelation that Gordon Brown wept during the recording of the forthcoming TV interview with Piers Morgan, talking about it in terms of Labour 'tactics'. One of the usual suspects rather risibly tries to read some significance into the fact that the 'top rated comment' on the issue on the Daily Mail website accuses Brown of exploiting his grief for electoral gain. Now, I wonder who was doing the rating?
I think Conservative supporters have got to be very, very careful about how they come at this. It's only a few short months since the near-impossible happened and Gordon Brown actually came out well from the controversy over his mis-spellings in a letter to the grieving mother of a military casualty, due to the sympathy provoked by the hysterical over-reaction in the Tory-supporting media. The way I read this is that Brown's decision to do an interview covering personal matters plainly was a tactical decision. It would also clearly have been agreed in advance that the death of his newborn daughter would not be off-limits, and that again would have been carefully weighed up. Tory supporters really can have no complaints about either of these points, given the way that David Cameron has brought his own son's illness and subsequent death into the public sphere, partly to underscore his personal commitment to the NHS - and any questioning of Cameron's sincerity would have certainly been greeted with outrage.
While I yield to no-one in my appreciation of Brown's many objectionable qualities, the one cynical thing he doesn't - or can't - do is emote on cue, in the way a Blair or Clinton could, and repeatedly did. He isn't an actor (at least not one of any quality), which paradoxically has been one of his biggest problems all along.
I think Conservative supporters have got to be very, very careful about how they come at this. It's only a few short months since the near-impossible happened and Gordon Brown actually came out well from the controversy over his mis-spellings in a letter to the grieving mother of a military casualty, due to the sympathy provoked by the hysterical over-reaction in the Tory-supporting media. The way I read this is that Brown's decision to do an interview covering personal matters plainly was a tactical decision. It would also clearly have been agreed in advance that the death of his newborn daughter would not be off-limits, and that again would have been carefully weighed up. Tory supporters really can have no complaints about either of these points, given the way that David Cameron has brought his own son's illness and subsequent death into the public sphere, partly to underscore his personal commitment to the NHS - and any questioning of Cameron's sincerity would have certainly been greeted with outrage.
While I yield to no-one in my appreciation of Brown's many objectionable qualities, the one cynical thing he doesn't - or can't - do is emote on cue, in the way a Blair or Clinton could, and repeatedly did. He isn't an actor (at least not one of any quality), which paradoxically has been one of his biggest problems all along.
At last - a Tory with a Target
I know from some exchanges I've had myself that it's startlingly difficult to pin down supposedly 'bullish', 'confident' Scottish Tories on what their realistic target for the general election actually is. Cynics might think that may just have something to do with the overwhelming and consistent polling evidence that any progress the party makes north of the border is likely to be disproportionately limited (to put it mildly) compared to just about everywhere else in the UK. However, to be fair, Scotland on Sunday is today reporting that David McLetchie has nailed his colours to the mast by expressing confidence that the Tories can outperform the SNP.
As thoroughly misplaced as that optimism seems, one distant memory is preventing me from dismissing the idea totally out of hand. In the run-up to the 1992 election, the SNP were generally polling ahead of the Tories, and the projections from the BBC exit poll on election night itself suggested the SNP would end up with eight seats to the Tories' three. But, when the real results came in, the Tories had beaten the Nationalists in the popular vote by 26% to 22%, and by eleven seats to three. As the coming general election may be the first won at UK-level by the Tories since 1992, there's at least a case to be made that the outcome in Scotland may resemble 1992 more than it does any of the intervening elections.
However, for my money the opposite may well happen. This could be one of those key elections, following on from 1959, 1979 and 1987, that shows Scotland completely bucking the UK trend in its response to the Conservative Party's pitch for votes. The Euro elections last June were a pretty strong clue - the Tories secured first place in all but one English region and even in Wales, but in Scotland were left languishing in third place on a dismal 17%.
The reason? Well, it's getting harder to make the rhetoric of a two-horse Labour-Tory race stick, when the SNP have not just consistently been finishing in the top two in Scottish elections, but actually winning elections outright. Not to mention, of course, the credibility that comes from having formed the Scottish government, which takes us into completely uncharted territory at a Westminster election. Whereas in the 1980s under Thatcher the Scottish Tories were hated, nowadays they're to a very large extent simply ignored. It's striking that it's the latter that actually seems set to produce the worse result - for how many people truly think the party will even equal Mrs Thatcher's low point of 24% of the vote in Scotland?
As thoroughly misplaced as that optimism seems, one distant memory is preventing me from dismissing the idea totally out of hand. In the run-up to the 1992 election, the SNP were generally polling ahead of the Tories, and the projections from the BBC exit poll on election night itself suggested the SNP would end up with eight seats to the Tories' three. But, when the real results came in, the Tories had beaten the Nationalists in the popular vote by 26% to 22%, and by eleven seats to three. As the coming general election may be the first won at UK-level by the Tories since 1992, there's at least a case to be made that the outcome in Scotland may resemble 1992 more than it does any of the intervening elections.
However, for my money the opposite may well happen. This could be one of those key elections, following on from 1959, 1979 and 1987, that shows Scotland completely bucking the UK trend in its response to the Conservative Party's pitch for votes. The Euro elections last June were a pretty strong clue - the Tories secured first place in all but one English region and even in Wales, but in Scotland were left languishing in third place on a dismal 17%.
The reason? Well, it's getting harder to make the rhetoric of a two-horse Labour-Tory race stick, when the SNP have not just consistently been finishing in the top two in Scottish elections, but actually winning elections outright. Not to mention, of course, the credibility that comes from having formed the Scottish government, which takes us into completely uncharted territory at a Westminster election. Whereas in the 1980s under Thatcher the Scottish Tories were hated, nowadays they're to a very large extent simply ignored. It's striking that it's the latter that actually seems set to produce the worse result - for how many people truly think the party will even equal Mrs Thatcher's low point of 24% of the vote in Scotland?
Friday, February 5, 2010
Scotland is not a nation, advises Rod Liddle
It was a slightly peculiar experience watching the discussion on Scottish independence on Wednesday night's Dinner With Portillo, with the only person I really had to cheer on being a decidedly right-of-centre historian. I must admit, though, that although I may not have agreed with Michael Fry on every point, he is a very effective and passionate debater, and given the circumstances thank heavens he was there. The most bizarre segment of the programme offered us yet another unwelcome opportunity to take a wander around the frightening terrain that is Rod Liddle's psyche. "Scotland is NOT a nation," he thundered repeatedly. You might assume such a startling claim would be backed up with a sophisticated and considered argument, but instead what we got was - "on the east coast of Scotland they speak like Northumbrians, on the west coast they speak Gay-lick". Yes, I must admit every time I visit Dundee I really have to pinch myself to remember I'm nowhere near Lindisfarne, and come the weekend I enjoy nothing more than a trip to Troon to sample the very best the GÃ idhealtachd has to offer. Seriously, though, is Liddle really offering up the continued survival of one of Scotland's indigenous languages as evidence that Scotland is less of a nation than it would otherwise be?
Vernon Bogdanor is of course a much weightier figure than Liddle, but even he seems to be stuck in the nineteenth century, talking of his "regret" that Ireland left the United Kingdom. You'd think he might have got over it by now. Underlying this of course is the stubborn idea amongst some traditionalist unionist thinkers that it would have been a more desirable outcome had Home Rule for Ireland headed off calls for full independence. That seems an utterly incredible worldview to hold in 2010 - does Bogdanor also think devolution for India within the UK would have been a more rational, progressive outcome in 1947?
Vernon Bogdanor is of course a much weightier figure than Liddle, but even he seems to be stuck in the nineteenth century, talking of his "regret" that Ireland left the United Kingdom. You'd think he might have got over it by now. Underlying this of course is the stubborn idea amongst some traditionalist unionist thinkers that it would have been a more desirable outcome had Home Rule for Ireland headed off calls for full independence. That seems an utterly incredible worldview to hold in 2010 - does Bogdanor also think devolution for India within the UK would have been a more rational, progressive outcome in 1947?
This is the joint 42nd best blog in Scotland, apparently!
Many thanks to everyone who nominated and voted for this blog in the inaugural Scotblogs awards. These awards have been lots of fun - they even got a little mention on Newsnight Scotland a week or two back, and the best thing about it has been the opportunity to discover some extraordinary blogs I hadn't previously been aware of (Everyone I Ever Kissed stands out).
And many congratulations to Jeff on his well-deserved victory. Given the mythology that's grown up about the supposed Cybernat scourge, it seems rather apt that the blog voted the best in Scotland is written by such a polite, tolerant and thoroughly ecumenical SNP member!
And many congratulations to Jeff on his well-deserved victory. Given the mythology that's grown up about the supposed Cybernat scourge, it seems rather apt that the blog voted the best in Scotland is written by such a polite, tolerant and thoroughly ecumenical SNP member!
Why Jon Cruddas just might be Labour leader
My ears pricked up (figuratively speaking) when I read Iain Dale's headline 'Why Jon Cruddas won't be Labour leader', because a few weeks ago for Political Betting's annual prediction game I had taken a wild guess that Cruddas might be the party leader twelve months from now. So I was curious to see if there was something blindingly obvious that I'd overlooked. But of the three 'reasons' Dale provides, two relate to his own prejudices about why Cruddas shouldn't be Labour leader, including one that is utterly risible (namely that he allegedly lives in Notting Hill rather than Dagenham). The third reason is a bit more pertinent - that there is a danger that Cruddas might lose his seat to the Tories at the general election. But if Dale's level of confidence that the Tories will win that seat is so high that it totally precludes even the possibility of Cruddas becoming party leader, why does he rather amusingly feel the need to end his post by begging for cash for the local Tory campaign?
For my money, Cruddas is the one potential leader that might just have a chance of restoring Labour's standing in public esteem. He's a likeable, straight-talking conviction politician who, rather novelly, actually seems to believe in at least some of the things a social democratic party is supposed to believe in. He once mischievously said "I'd like to see us lurch to the centre-left". It's a thought.
For my money, Cruddas is the one potential leader that might just have a chance of restoring Labour's standing in public esteem. He's a likeable, straight-talking conviction politician who, rather novelly, actually seems to believe in at least some of the things a social democratic party is supposed to believe in. He once mischievously said "I'd like to see us lurch to the centre-left". It's a thought.
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