As I think I've mentioned before, I hardly ever talk about politics in 'real life'. In fact, I sometimes wince when I hear people express political views that I agree with, if the context seems inappropriate. In the run-up to the 2011 Holyrood election, I remember standing in a queue for Celtic Connections, and listening to a woman bore a couple of English students witless with rambling talk about unionists and Iain Gray. All I could think was "oh for pity's sake, what good do you think this is doing?"
I'm beginning to realise, though, that the equation has completely changed now that we're in the referendum campaign, and that there's far more danger in not speaking out than there is in looking like the pub bore. While I was off on my travels, I found myself in the company of some English people at dinner in Austria. When they found out I was Scottish, the subject turned almost automatically to independence - something which has never happened to me before, perhaps indicating that the proximity of the vote is finally starting to attract some interest south of the border. "Well, I just hope we stay united," one of them said, turning to me with a knowing smile. My interpretation was that she assumed that any Scot who could bear to have dinner with English people must be anti-independence, and that she could therefore 'risk' taking it as read that I was an ally. I felt a bit sick, because I didn't really want to get into a political discussion, but I realised that my silence would be taken as assent. So after a couple of the others had made some disparaging comments about independence, I forced myself to say "I have to tell you, I'm in favour of it".
It became very awkward from that moment on. First of all, there was the familiar knee-jerk assumption that it must all be about a childish rejection of "us", the English - "do you still blame us for Glencoe?" one of them asked. Yes, it was a joke, but the fact that questions like that were the first to enter their minds (as opposed, for example, to asking me for my own reasons for believing that Scotland would be a better country if it controlled its own affairs) spoke volumes. Then there was the phenomenon that I used to encounter regularly at PB - an assumption that political discourse across the UK is so homogenous that the debate on independence in Scotland cannot possibly be any more advanced than the kindergarten stuff in the London media, and that many key issues have therefore yet to be properly thought through. Someone asked me whether we would keep the monarchy in an independent Scotland, and did so in a tone of voice implying that it was a killer question that nobody had ever thought of before. I paused for a moment, trying to work out how to explain in a few words that I am personally a republican, but that the likelihood is that the monarchy will be retained for the time being, and that I'm not overly fussed by the prospect. She leapt on my hesitation and said "ah, you see, he'll have to think about that one!"
I fared slightly better when the usual topic of size came up. "When you look at all these countries around Europe and realise how big they are," one of them said, "I don't know how we think we can possibly compete if we start breaking apart..." I struck a 'look around you' pose and pointed out that Austria isn't that much bigger than Scotland, and is much, much smaller than the rest of the UK. She didn't have an answer to that, but did suggest that it might be time to "stop arguing now".
I went back to my hotel room and felt incredibly frustrated. It wasn't a dispute I had sought, which is perhaps just as well, because if I'd had any hopes of having my views treated as 'adult' ones in a discussion like that, I would have been bitterly disappointed. I wondered if perhaps I should have kept my mouth shut, because after all I hadn't even been talking to people who have a vote next year. But then I thought - no, it's all part of the same feedback loop. If you keep silent at a moment like that, then it perpetuates the myth south of the border - which is ultimately bounced back to us via the London media - that 'real' Scots don't care about independence.
We have to talk openly about our support for independence, not because it isn't sometimes very awkward to do so, but precisely because it is. That awkwardness is the sound of silly preconceptions being challenged.
* * *
You can't really miss from the masthead that this blog has fared rather well in previous "best political blogs" polls, and I'm delighted to learn that it can now add to that the accolade of having been voted the UK's 36th worst political blog. I tend to take the view that there's no such thing as bad publicity, so many thanks to my ex-PB chums (I presume) for making it possible. You're the best, guys! Actually, it's quite a stellar list by any standards.
Talking of PB, while I was away I effectively won a long-running 'duel' with the PB poster AndyJS about the likely outcome of the German election. Andy had expected a repeat of the Schleswig-Holstein state election from last year, with CDU supporters voting tactically in big numbers to ensure that the FDP stayed above the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. I never thought that was remotely likely, because in contrast to Schleswig-Holstein the CDU's own place in government wasn't in doubt, and there was no particular reason to think that CDU voters strongly preferred the FDP as a junior coalition partner to either the SPD or Greens. I must admit, though, that I was still (pleasantly) surprised that the FDP weren't able to sneak above the threshold on their own merits.
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Eurovision 2011 prediction : the final
Welcome along to my fourth annual attempt to predict the result of the Eurovision Song Contest final. Now, as I may possibly have made reference to once or twice before, I successfully picked the winner in 2008, 2009 and 2010 - and for good measure I got the top three in the correct order last year. So what does that tell you? Yup, that's right, it tells you that the law of averages is about to kick in and as a result I'm going to fall flat on my face. But am I deterred? Pah! Not a bit of it.
To my mind the three class songs in the field are France, Germany and Hungary. The fact that 50% of the vote goes to juries comprised of musical professionals should mean that the cream has a fair chance of rising to the top this time, but even so I think we can safely rule Hungary out of contention. Kati Wolf's vocals have been a wee bit shy of perfect, and in any case dance tracks have such an atrocious record in the public vote that I'm not sure even a good placing with the juries will be able to save her.
As I mentioned when I ventured my pre-rehearsals prediction a few weeks ago, I think the puzzle at the heart of this Eurovision is whether France will win by a country mile, or won't win at all - I don't think there's going to be a middle way. I'm not really any closer to solving that puzzle, and if younger televoters don't go for the song, it wouldn't completely surprise me if France finished well down the leaderboard. But the next question is "if not France, then who?", and having watched the semi-finals and seen some of the rehearsals, no-one is really leaping out at me. The obvious answer a couple of weeks ago might have appeared to be the UK's Blue, but the general view is that they've been underperforming. Jedward are clearly going down a storm for Ireland assisted by some inspired staging (and also by the fact that the "backing" vocalists are doing the singing for them), but it's hard not to feel that the juries will mark them less favourably than the public. So, almost by default, I'm plumping for France as the winners, but without a huge amount of confidence. Here is my top five...
Winners - France (Sognu - Amaury Vassili)
2nd - Germany (Taken By a Stranger - Lena Meyer-Landrut)
3rd - Ireland (Lipstick - Jedward)
4th - UK (I Can - Blue)
5th - Denmark (New Tomorrow - A Friend in London)
Possible dark horses - Austria, Estonia
Of the obvious favourites, I've left out Azerbaijan simply because I don't think the song is strong enough, although it certainly can't be discounted altogether because it's beautifully staged and choreographed. I changed my mind at least five times about whether to have Denmark or Austria in fifth place - Austria have the better singer and a more favourable draw, but I think the anthemic Danish song is slightly more memorable.
I have Lena of Germany pipping Jedward to second place for a couple of reasons - we know from past experience that she'll nail the vocals on the night, and she'll probably be preferred by the juries. But for all that and everything, Taken By a Stranger is such a laid-back, offbeat, ice-cool entry that I just struggle to see it winning Eurovision outright. So I suppose what I'm saying is that if France do falter, Jedward may find themselves next in line for victory, which is...well, a startling thought.
With Ireland, France and the UK all in genuine contention, tonight's result could have some significance in the overall history of the contest. If either France or the UK win, they'll move clear of the other and of Luxembourg to become the second most successful country in Eurovision history with six victories - just one behind Ireland. But if Ireland notch up their eighth win, they'll move three clear of the others once again. One curiosity is that six of Ireland's seven victories to date occurred in the 1980s and 90s, whereas the most recent of France's wins was as far back as 1977 - although to be fair they couldn't have come much closer in 1991, losing to Sweden on the countback rule.
One prediction that is an absolute banker for this evening is that the UK public will want to award twelve points to Ireland (although whether the UK jury will play ball with that is another matter). And Ireland may even return the compliment, although I must admit that when I heard the Icelandic entry the first thought that went through my head was "douze points from Ireland".
To my mind the three class songs in the field are France, Germany and Hungary. The fact that 50% of the vote goes to juries comprised of musical professionals should mean that the cream has a fair chance of rising to the top this time, but even so I think we can safely rule Hungary out of contention. Kati Wolf's vocals have been a wee bit shy of perfect, and in any case dance tracks have such an atrocious record in the public vote that I'm not sure even a good placing with the juries will be able to save her.
As I mentioned when I ventured my pre-rehearsals prediction a few weeks ago, I think the puzzle at the heart of this Eurovision is whether France will win by a country mile, or won't win at all - I don't think there's going to be a middle way. I'm not really any closer to solving that puzzle, and if younger televoters don't go for the song, it wouldn't completely surprise me if France finished well down the leaderboard. But the next question is "if not France, then who?", and having watched the semi-finals and seen some of the rehearsals, no-one is really leaping out at me. The obvious answer a couple of weeks ago might have appeared to be the UK's Blue, but the general view is that they've been underperforming. Jedward are clearly going down a storm for Ireland assisted by some inspired staging (and also by the fact that the "backing" vocalists are doing the singing for them), but it's hard not to feel that the juries will mark them less favourably than the public. So, almost by default, I'm plumping for France as the winners, but without a huge amount of confidence. Here is my top five...
Winners - France (Sognu - Amaury Vassili)
2nd - Germany (Taken By a Stranger - Lena Meyer-Landrut)
3rd - Ireland (Lipstick - Jedward)
4th - UK (I Can - Blue)
5th - Denmark (New Tomorrow - A Friend in London)
Possible dark horses - Austria, Estonia
Of the obvious favourites, I've left out Azerbaijan simply because I don't think the song is strong enough, although it certainly can't be discounted altogether because it's beautifully staged and choreographed. I changed my mind at least five times about whether to have Denmark or Austria in fifth place - Austria have the better singer and a more favourable draw, but I think the anthemic Danish song is slightly more memorable.
I have Lena of Germany pipping Jedward to second place for a couple of reasons - we know from past experience that she'll nail the vocals on the night, and she'll probably be preferred by the juries. But for all that and everything, Taken By a Stranger is such a laid-back, offbeat, ice-cool entry that I just struggle to see it winning Eurovision outright. So I suppose what I'm saying is that if France do falter, Jedward may find themselves next in line for victory, which is...well, a startling thought.
With Ireland, France and the UK all in genuine contention, tonight's result could have some significance in the overall history of the contest. If either France or the UK win, they'll move clear of the other and of Luxembourg to become the second most successful country in Eurovision history with six victories - just one behind Ireland. But if Ireland notch up their eighth win, they'll move three clear of the others once again. One curiosity is that six of Ireland's seven victories to date occurred in the 1980s and 90s, whereas the most recent of France's wins was as far back as 1977 - although to be fair they couldn't have come much closer in 1991, losing to Sweden on the countback rule.
One prediction that is an absolute banker for this evening is that the UK public will want to award twelve points to Ireland (although whether the UK jury will play ball with that is another matter). And Ireland may even return the compliment, although I must admit that when I heard the Icelandic entry the first thought that went through my head was "douze points from Ireland".
Friday, April 8, 2011
'Yeah, they had that AV in Mongolia, that's how the giraffes went extinct'
I caught up with the Daily Politics AV debate on the BBC iplayer earlier, and I think I may have just discovered why the No campaign's star turn John Prescott was never made Foreign Secretary. We were treated to an impressively confident recital of assorted 'facts' about the electoral systems of foreign countries, most of which Prezza seemed to have gleaned from a conversation with his mate Dave down the pub. For your delectation...
1. The German Greens dumped their Social Democrat coalition partners midway through a parliament, and put in the Christian Democrats instead.
(The German Greens have never done any such thing, and at federal level have only ever been in coalition with the Social Democrats. Prescott is thinking of something the liberal FDP did in 1982. This, is any case, has no relevance whatever to AV, given that Germany uses a proportional and non-preferential voting system that bears no resemblance to the preferential and non-proportional system we're currently being offered.)
2. AV has led to the current coalition government in Australia.
(Australia doesn't have a coalition government at present, for the very good reason that the only independent third party with representation in the lower house of parliament holds just one seat. What there is instead is a minority government, the first of its kind under Australia's AV system for several decades, and one that occurred simply as the result of an unusually close election. In case Prescott hasn't noticed, something remarkably similar happened in Britain under his own beloved voting system just last year.)
3. AV in Australia meant that the right-wing Liberal-National coalition was always in power until last year's election, and even then Labor was only able to assume office with the help of the Greens and "a couple of farmers".
(Prescott seems to have slept through the previous Labor administrations led by well-known Prime Ministers such as Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. He also seems oblivious to the fact that the current Julia Gillard administration were the incumbents going into the last election, and had an outright majority.)
4. How do we know that AV makes coalitions more likely? Well, it's only used in three countries, and in Belgium they've been without a government for a year.
(A sentence that would make considerably more sense if only Belgium was actually one of those three countries that uses AV. The proportional system it instead uses does of course make balanced parliaments and coalitions far more likely, but as that system bears absolutely no resemblance to AV, what in God's name is the relevance in pointing this out?)
But apart from these minor quibbles, I must say I learned a great deal.
1. The German Greens dumped their Social Democrat coalition partners midway through a parliament, and put in the Christian Democrats instead.
(The German Greens have never done any such thing, and at federal level have only ever been in coalition with the Social Democrats. Prescott is thinking of something the liberal FDP did in 1982. This, is any case, has no relevance whatever to AV, given that Germany uses a proportional and non-preferential voting system that bears no resemblance to the preferential and non-proportional system we're currently being offered.)
2. AV has led to the current coalition government in Australia.
(Australia doesn't have a coalition government at present, for the very good reason that the only independent third party with representation in the lower house of parliament holds just one seat. What there is instead is a minority government, the first of its kind under Australia's AV system for several decades, and one that occurred simply as the result of an unusually close election. In case Prescott hasn't noticed, something remarkably similar happened in Britain under his own beloved voting system just last year.)
3. AV in Australia meant that the right-wing Liberal-National coalition was always in power until last year's election, and even then Labor was only able to assume office with the help of the Greens and "a couple of farmers".
(Prescott seems to have slept through the previous Labor administrations led by well-known Prime Ministers such as Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. He also seems oblivious to the fact that the current Julia Gillard administration were the incumbents going into the last election, and had an outright majority.)
4. How do we know that AV makes coalitions more likely? Well, it's only used in three countries, and in Belgium they've been without a government for a year.
(A sentence that would make considerably more sense if only Belgium was actually one of those three countries that uses AV. The proportional system it instead uses does of course make balanced parliaments and coalitions far more likely, but as that system bears absolutely no resemblance to AV, what in God's name is the relevance in pointing this out?)
But apart from these minor quibbles, I must say I learned a great deal.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Stranger things are starting to begin
Perhaps this is the time of year that I always think this, but I'm beginning to seriously despair of the 2011 Eurovision crop. Of the songs I've heard from the national selections so far, a mere three have really reached out and grabbed me (although there may be some good ones I haven't caught up with yet), and of those, two failed to win the ticket to Düsseldorf. Admittedly there were special circumstances - a sympathy vote following the death of another song's original performer - that partly explain Jóhanna's failure in Iceland, but the overlooking of Nicki Ponte's I Don't Wanna Dance in this evening's Greek final is utterly beyond me.
The one gem that has made it through comes from that unlikeliest of sources - the hosts Germany. Much as I never found Lena Meyer-Landrut half as irritating last year as some people seemed to, I was still slightly dubious about the wisdom of allowing her to 'defend her title'. However, with a brave choice of song that once again suits her quirkiness down to the ground, it looks like it might just pay off - at least to some extent. Taken By a Stranger is probably a bit too low-key to win outright, but the way things are going it may well deserve to.
One thing that occurred to me when I was listening to it the first time round was that, just like Satellite, the lyrics seemed a bit too offbeat and intricate to have been written by a non-native speaker of English. Sure enough, they appear to have been penned by an American. That's surely one of the biggest downsides of the scrapping of the language restrictions twelve years ago - now that Germany have established it can be an advantage, we'll probably see more and more songwriters from English-speaking countries being drafted in, narrowing the contest's 'gene pool' considerably.
The one gem that has made it through comes from that unlikeliest of sources - the hosts Germany. Much as I never found Lena Meyer-Landrut half as irritating last year as some people seemed to, I was still slightly dubious about the wisdom of allowing her to 'defend her title'. However, with a brave choice of song that once again suits her quirkiness down to the ground, it looks like it might just pay off - at least to some extent. Taken By a Stranger is probably a bit too low-key to win outright, but the way things are going it may well deserve to.
One thing that occurred to me when I was listening to it the first time round was that, just like Satellite, the lyrics seemed a bit too offbeat and intricate to have been written by a non-native speaker of English. Sure enough, they appear to have been penned by an American. That's surely one of the biggest downsides of the scrapping of the language restrictions twelve years ago - now that Germany have established it can be an advantage, we'll probably see more and more songwriters from English-speaking countries being drafted in, narrowing the contest's 'gene pool' considerably.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
I even painted my toenails for you, I did it just the other day
Well, owsabout that for a prediction, then? I had to rub my eyes in disbelief at the way it worked out - what with all the pre-contest uncertainty, I thought the odds were heavily against picking the right winner, let alone the top three all in the correct order. Admittedly, I seem to have had something of a blind spot about the Icelandic entry, but all in all I think I'm entitled to say (not for the first time) - eat your heart out, Keith "The Oracle" Mills!
It's obviously a fantastic outcome for the contest to have such a genuine international hit take the crown, although for me it's tinged with a couple points of regret - a) it would have been a real breakthrough moment for Eurovision if a song like Turkey could just have gone one better, and b) I had been looking forward to a photo-finish in the voting for the first time in a few years, but instead (to everyone's huge surprise) we had yet another runaway winner. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps it should have been obvious that Lena's fame across the continent would sweep her to an easy victory - but then people thought the same about Tatu (among many others).
It was, shall we say, an interesting experience for me watching the contest this year, because I was with two people who took an instantaneous and highly personal loathing to Lena, that frankly bordered on the homicidal. The ubiquitous words "Allemagne, douze points" were greeted on each and every occasion with groans that were probably audible from Germany itself. During the reprise of the song at the end, they turned to me and said "so what do you think of it, then?", and I had to sheepishly say "I didn't think it was that bad, to be honest...". My middle names are 'Moral' and 'Cowardice'.
I can of course completely understand why Lena would seem a bit irritating to some, but one thing I can't really relate to is the moaning about her singing in an exaggerated English accent. Why would that be intrinsically any more objectionable than the countless continental European singers who routinely adopt an American twang when they perform in English?
A few other random thoughts :
Exactly as I observed last year, the victory of a western country is masking the fact that the reintroduction of the juries has completely, spectacularly, utterly failed to resolve the problem of political voting. It's maybe diluted it by about 20% at best. The amount of obviously political voting for Russia in particular was as obscene as ever. I'm struggling to see what the solution is, though, because presumably eliminating televoting altogether has now become unthinkable, while the public would feel conned if their voice counted for less than 50%.
The genie's probably out of the bottle now, but I still think the two-hour televoting window is a terrible retrograde step for the credibility of the contest. I promised myself I wouldn't do this, but as I'd more or less made up my mind to vote for Portugal, I went ahead and made the call before they actually performed. I can't have been alone in doing that, and it really makes a mockery of a competition that in the past has always hinged on the live performance of each song.
On the other hand, although the organisers will be mortified by it, the 'pitch invasion' during the Spanish entry at least reminded us that, for all the new-fangled computer technology and backing tracks, Eurovision remains a completely live event with the welcome potential for unscripted catastrophe. Although this incident was a first for the main contest, something very similar happened in the Lithuanian national selection four or five years ago - except on that occasion the intruder remained on stage for half the entire song, and for good measure the performer's microphone stopped working as well. Bona fide TV gold - and if anyone ever manages to track it down on YouTube there might just be a fun-size Aero in it for you.
It's obviously a fantastic outcome for the contest to have such a genuine international hit take the crown, although for me it's tinged with a couple points of regret - a) it would have been a real breakthrough moment for Eurovision if a song like Turkey could just have gone one better, and b) I had been looking forward to a photo-finish in the voting for the first time in a few years, but instead (to everyone's huge surprise) we had yet another runaway winner. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps it should have been obvious that Lena's fame across the continent would sweep her to an easy victory - but then people thought the same about Tatu (among many others).
It was, shall we say, an interesting experience for me watching the contest this year, because I was with two people who took an instantaneous and highly personal loathing to Lena, that frankly bordered on the homicidal. The ubiquitous words "Allemagne, douze points" were greeted on each and every occasion with groans that were probably audible from Germany itself. During the reprise of the song at the end, they turned to me and said "so what do you think of it, then?", and I had to sheepishly say "I didn't think it was that bad, to be honest...". My middle names are 'Moral' and 'Cowardice'.
I can of course completely understand why Lena would seem a bit irritating to some, but one thing I can't really relate to is the moaning about her singing in an exaggerated English accent. Why would that be intrinsically any more objectionable than the countless continental European singers who routinely adopt an American twang when they perform in English?
A few other random thoughts :
Exactly as I observed last year, the victory of a western country is masking the fact that the reintroduction of the juries has completely, spectacularly, utterly failed to resolve the problem of political voting. It's maybe diluted it by about 20% at best. The amount of obviously political voting for Russia in particular was as obscene as ever. I'm struggling to see what the solution is, though, because presumably eliminating televoting altogether has now become unthinkable, while the public would feel conned if their voice counted for less than 50%.
The genie's probably out of the bottle now, but I still think the two-hour televoting window is a terrible retrograde step for the credibility of the contest. I promised myself I wouldn't do this, but as I'd more or less made up my mind to vote for Portugal, I went ahead and made the call before they actually performed. I can't have been alone in doing that, and it really makes a mockery of a competition that in the past has always hinged on the live performance of each song.
On the other hand, although the organisers will be mortified by it, the 'pitch invasion' during the Spanish entry at least reminded us that, for all the new-fangled computer technology and backing tracks, Eurovision remains a completely live event with the welcome potential for unscripted catastrophe. Although this incident was a first for the main contest, something very similar happened in the Lithuanian national selection four or five years ago - except on that occasion the intruder remained on stage for half the entire song, and for good measure the performer's microphone stopped working as well. Bona fide TV gold - and if anyone ever manages to track it down on YouTube there might just be a fun-size Aero in it for you.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Eurovision 2010 prediction : the final
I really don't know whether to laugh or cry when I hear Pete Waterman claim that the Eurovision song he's penned for the UK has "every chance" of winning. I can understand how he might just have been labouring under that delusion back in March, but to still feel able to say that after having heard the competition demonstrates that he just never really 'got' Eurovision. Doubtless when the UK finishes somewhere in the bottom five (very possibly last) Pete will claim - as others have before him - to be utterly bemused, and put it all down to the bloc voting. And, to be fair, he might even be half-right if he does - but the bottom line is that Jade Ewen, Jessica Garlick and Imaani have all demonstrated that the UK's in-built disadvantage in the televoting age can be overcome with the right song and the right performance. Neither will be on offer this time.
In a sense, Waterman's comments are a classic case of putting 2 and 2 together and making 22, because he was clearly aware that Azerbaijan were the favourites, and after hearing their underwhelming performance in the semi-final instantly concluded that all bets are off. Well, he's maybe being wildly optimistic about the implications for the UK, but he's certainly bang on the money in his assessment of Azerbaijan - it really isn't looking like a winner, even taking into account the reports of an improved rehearsal. The early results from Esctoday's prediction poll seem to suggest that Armenia are poised to pick up the pieces - as I mentioned last night, I'm not convinced, but given its highly favourable draw, it certainly can't be ruled out.
At this point I could pray in aid the fact that I correctly predicted the winner in both 2008 and 2009, but those were both total no-brainers compared to this year. But I shan't be daunted - here's my wild stab in the dark of how I think it might all shake out...
Winners - Germany
2nd - Turkey
3rd - Romania
4th - Armenia
5th - Iceland
Possible dark horses - Denmark, Belgium
My gut feeling immediately after the second semi was that Turkey might just sneak it, but the glowing accounts of Germany's latest rehearsal have given me second thoughts. Lena could hardly have a better draw, and the song is going to stand out an absolute mile. But really there are half-a-dozen or more potential winners, and it's anyone's guess.
In my heart of hearts I don't really believe Denmark are going to come close to winning, but I do think you can just about build a plausible case for it. The song (which admittedly many people loathe) has a kind of I've Had The Time Of My Life vibe about it, which means performing last ought to be the dream draw. But to have any chance they'll have to nail every aspect of the performance - the vocals were fine in the semi-final, but the visual side still lacked a bit of sparkle compared to the Danish national selection.
Other intriguing questions - who will the UK vote for? The reintroduction of the juries complicates matters, but when we eventually see the televoting breakdowns, I'll be very surprised on past form if the British public haven't put one of the following countries in first place (admittedly I haven't a clue which one!) - Ireland, Greece, Turkey, Iceland or Cyprus.
As for me, I'll be following my long-standing personal rule and voting for my favourite of the songs not sung in English, which gives me a staggering total of six to choose from! I'm pretty sure that means I'll be voting for Portugal for the third year in a row.
In a sense, Waterman's comments are a classic case of putting 2 and 2 together and making 22, because he was clearly aware that Azerbaijan were the favourites, and after hearing their underwhelming performance in the semi-final instantly concluded that all bets are off. Well, he's maybe being wildly optimistic about the implications for the UK, but he's certainly bang on the money in his assessment of Azerbaijan - it really isn't looking like a winner, even taking into account the reports of an improved rehearsal. The early results from Esctoday's prediction poll seem to suggest that Armenia are poised to pick up the pieces - as I mentioned last night, I'm not convinced, but given its highly favourable draw, it certainly can't be ruled out.
At this point I could pray in aid the fact that I correctly predicted the winner in both 2008 and 2009, but those were both total no-brainers compared to this year. But I shan't be daunted - here's my wild stab in the dark of how I think it might all shake out...
Winners - Germany
2nd - Turkey
3rd - Romania
4th - Armenia
5th - Iceland
Possible dark horses - Denmark, Belgium
My gut feeling immediately after the second semi was that Turkey might just sneak it, but the glowing accounts of Germany's latest rehearsal have given me second thoughts. Lena could hardly have a better draw, and the song is going to stand out an absolute mile. But really there are half-a-dozen or more potential winners, and it's anyone's guess.
In my heart of hearts I don't really believe Denmark are going to come close to winning, but I do think you can just about build a plausible case for it. The song (which admittedly many people loathe) has a kind of I've Had The Time Of My Life vibe about it, which means performing last ought to be the dream draw. But to have any chance they'll have to nail every aspect of the performance - the vocals were fine in the semi-final, but the visual side still lacked a bit of sparkle compared to the Danish national selection.
Other intriguing questions - who will the UK vote for? The reintroduction of the juries complicates matters, but when we eventually see the televoting breakdowns, I'll be very surprised on past form if the British public haven't put one of the following countries in first place (admittedly I haven't a clue which one!) - Ireland, Greece, Turkey, Iceland or Cyprus.
As for me, I'll be following my long-standing personal rule and voting for my favourite of the songs not sung in English, which gives me a staggering total of six to choose from! I'm pretty sure that means I'll be voting for Portugal for the third year in a row.
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