It's 2.20am as I sit down to write this, so probably not the ideal time to embark on making a video (you wouldn't believe how long even the shortest of videos take to make, once you take into account the preparation, the editing and the processing), but I must nevertheless bring to your attention the information that Calum Findlay revealed in the comments section of the previous post. The Scottish Election Study has published its latest Scottish Opinion Monitor (SCOOP) poll. These polls are basically just regular YouGov polls but with two thrilling twists - the media don't seem to report them very much, and the data tables don't bother to mention what the results are with undecided voters excluded.
The most significant results are on the independence question. YouGov has in recent years reverted to its former status as a very firmly No-friendly pollster, and that remains the case in this poll because there is a No lead at a time when other polling firms are showing substantial Yes majorities. However in a sense it corroborates the trend shown by those other firms because it shows a third successive reduction in the No lead (as far as YouGov polls are concerned, I mean) and leaves No with a mere three-point advantage, which is much lower than YouGov typically show. As Calum points out, the fact that No even remain in the lead at all should be interpreted with caution because it's been partly caused by YouGov's reweighting of their raw data based on how people say they voted in the 2014 independence referendum - a practice that the UK's gold standard pollster Ipsos states is unwise because of the high risk of distortions caused by false recall.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 10th-20th October 2025)
And although this isn't a video, please feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel anyway, because I'm trying to get to 1000 subscribers as soon as possible!
I read that YouGov doesn’t just ask respondents who they voted for in the past, relying on their recollection for each and every poll, but uses its own historical data for that particular panel member instead. They have a longstanding panel, keeping the same respondents on file for many years, and they've said that this technique works well to neutralise the effect of false recall.
ReplyDeleteNow, just how much their 2014 numbers are based on actual 11-year users going all the way back to the event itself, and how much of it came in later, is something to ask them about.
The general principle apparently works well for general elections, no more than 5 years apart. But a "once in a generation" event that completely redefined Scottish politics? That remains untested.
I'm aware that they've said that, but I struggle to believe that anything like a majority of their panel (or at least the active portion of their panel) were registered with YouGov in 2014, so it must be based on recall to a large extent.
DeleteI love the PT Barnum style headlines, it always makes me feel reassured that everything I believed already is true.
ReplyDeleteYou're very welcome.
DeleteI have looked at the tables again and the raw numbers are included at the top, it's Yes 48.4% No: 51.6%.
ReplyDeleteThat seems to have upset the alleged anti-SNP independence movement bods - as they seem to get really worked up any time the SNP seem to be holding out well. Very interesting response every time and Steph Paton's article in the National putting down Tommy Sheppard for saying 'winning a majority of Scottish residents to the cause' is the way to independence - and instead saying that the way to independence is Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party getting power in Westminster who will 'not block a second poll on independence, the way would be clear'. When you hear movement influencers suggesting there is no longer any interest or impetus in bringing Scottish residents over to the cause of independence - but suggesting that Corbyn of Islington is the new Messiah of independence - you know something is very wrong. Stuff the residents of Scotland now - and it's all about Corbyn of Islington and a London HQ'd Your Party? The Salmond aide who 5 years ago laughed and said 'There's no such thing as 'the Yes movement' - it makes sense now. When Sturgeon got the numbers up to 58% - it was the alleged Yes movement who virulently started working against her. Yes movement would seem to be fake news in reality. No other explanation for it - well, there is - but it's too sinister and machiavellian to say out loud. When you hear movement influencers praising Corbyn and Sultana and declaring them Scotland's route to independence based at Westminster - you have to seriously wonder why this movement now wants to hand our future over to Westminster. The movement is projecting what it's doing onto the SNP accusing them of cosying up to Westminster - when it's been the other way around all along.
ReplyDeleteUK Labour approval figures are diabolical. Net negative 83%, down 15% from June.
ReplyDeleteThis is before Rachel from Customer Services hits us all with tax rises. The precipitous fall of Labour on the Wiki, Westminster voting intention, best fit graph has no firmly predicable floor.
What happened between June, and October to prompt an already dire approval rating to drop off a cliff?
Perhaps Starmer, and half his cabinet dropping all the rest of their pressing affairs to mount a concerted campaign of staning for a bunch of violent, foreign, racist, football hooligans wasn’t such a great idea.
What could have prompted such a bizarre act of political seppuku?
Wanna buy a second hand Toyota RAV4 (slight scorch marks to the paintwork)?
That’s a bizarre interpretation of events. It is clearly your opinion, but you appear to have no actual evidence to support what you say. To suggest that Sturgeon’s downfall was the fault of anyone other than Sturgeon herself is just silly.
DeleteSo there was a so called majority for independence in Holyrood since 2021 and the SNP/Greens did nothing but make promises about independence which they reneged upon.
ReplyDeleteThis poll suggests that a similar majority for independence will be the result after the 2026 election but this time Swinney has ensured that the SNP do not have to even make false promises.
I'll repeat for the trolls and numpties who frequent SGP what I have said before. Vote SNP if you want for whatever reason, but don't expect anything to be done about Scottish independence. This is not doom and gloom for the sake of it this is an accurate statement of the current position. The SNP leadership are devolutionists and John the Redactor played his part in covering up wrongdoings.
If you don't like the current position and are an SNP member have a look at yourself and question why you supported this leadership. In particular those SNP members at their conference cheering Swinney's independence plan that is designed to avoid doing anything about independence.
I support the leadership as the alternative is IFS who is an underminer and supports the britnats.
DeleteIFS is a virus, because he's dying of it he wants everybody else to die, It's the latest strain of British
DeleteJust the usual ad hominen attacks on IFS with no attempt to deal with his points. Pathetic.
DeleteAnd John Swinney is telling us that the Green votes don’t count. Master strategist.
ReplyDeleteSeems to be on the way for victory.
DeleteWe've had an SNP /Green majority for years. What has it done for indy? Nothing good. So I don't share the belief that the SNP and Greens are pro-indy.
ReplyDeleteI see more the National columnist or journalists are pushing the virtue of RISE, errrr, sorry, Not Your Party.
ReplyDeleteRISE- led by whom? Just a mirage.
DeleteDisappointing that the hard-core British Imperial Parties will get as many as 58 seats according to those estimates. How sad.
ReplyDeletelets hope we can build on this.
ReplyDelete