I was in the second row from the front at the afternoon session of the SNP conference in Aberdeen today, when the party made its fateful decision on independence strategy. In this video I give you a sense of what the atmosphere among delegates was like, and set out my own (quite deep) concerns about the implications of the decision.
Apologies for the technical quality of the video - as I'm away from home I had to use my phone, and it seems to have 'issues'.
According to Holyrood magazine, John Swinney said "They say a one-party majority is needed for this and I say, challenge accepted by the SNP."
ReplyDeleteDid he elaborate on when exactly "they" said this is required? My concern about all this is not just that the threshold is near certain not to be met, but also that *even if it is met*, there's no reason for Westminster to budge an inch. If they're actually on record as saying that they would submit to a referendum if a single-party majority was achieved, that would give the strategy at least some merit: but my strong suspicion is that Swinney just completely made this up. Anyone know?
Absolutely. If he had a cast-iron deal, that puts a completely different complexion on matters. He needs to come clean.
DeleteActually he doesn't need to come clean - yet. Not till it's very nearly time for the postal votes to come out in April. For the moment, as he says: "nobody knows the tactics I’ll deploy’".
DeleteIt will need to be strong and worthwhile though; the votes of the missing 520,000 Indy voters depend on that, and perhaps a lot more considering Indy support is potentially 60%+ already.
For the moment I'm fully in support. I hope I don't get disappointed and discouraged from voting by nothing more by next May.
SNP doing well at polls.
ReplyDeleteSo to recap, the SNP have made sure Scotland can't hold it's own referendum, they've made sure they can't ever win a mandate to ask to hold a referendum and they've made sure that there are no alternative strategies available.
ReplyDeleteAll they have to do is win 66 seats. In 2011 they won 69.
DeleteOK, so explain how they're going, within months, to increase their list vote from sub-30 to the mid-40s they had in 2011.
DeleteSimples. Avoid waffling about progressive fair gender justice. And make ALL election material and campaigns about Independence, rather than practically totally avoiding it like they did last year losing 38 so-called Independence MPs.
DeleteIt’s delusional to imagine we’ll come anywhere near a majority. My worry is that the polls are missing something why else would a numpty who is incapable of speaking be elected in Hamilton there are other examples of council by elections that Labour have won that they shouldn’t have. Bit worried tbh
DeleteSpot on Rob.
DeleteLooking at the text of Swinney's motion:
ReplyDelete"Conference therefore endorses an approach to the SNP’s 2026 campaign designed to deliver a mandate that cannot be contested or rejected, which will include… a clear target therefore of repeating the 2011 achievement of securing an SNP majority in the election, with at least 65 SNP MSPs, as the only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future."
"The only uncontested way"? Whit? When did this happen? Westminster have been notorious for *not* answering the question of what threshold is required for a referendum to be held. I feel like I'm going insane
Where, exactly, in that resolution, does it say Swinney would go begging Starmer or whoever, for a referendum? Nowhere.
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