I suppose on some level you have to admire the chutzpah of John Swinney, winner of the coveted 100% rating in the 2025 Guide To The World's Worst Plans For Winning The Independence Of A Country, in criticising *someone's else's* independence plan for being "unworkable", but that's what he's just done. In today's YouTube commentary I explain why the plan of the so-called "SNP rebels" is self-evidently far more workable than Mr Swinney's plan, and at the end I also point out the single worst feature of the Swinney plan - meaning that we'd practically be better off going into the election with no plan whatsoever than with the Swinney plan.
You can watch via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.
This is so depressing. James, is there any way that you could speak with John Swinney directly, one to one? Someone convincing, like yourself, needs to get through to him. That's assuming you would want to, of course.
ReplyDeleteWhen you say that Spain is different, are you really sure? I don't think this uk former empire, now decadent, is very different. The reason why Independence is not outright uncostitutional is simply because there isn't a written constitution.
ReplyDeleteThere isn't a written constitution and the UK Parliament is Sovereign(both traits of the pre1707 English Kingdom) because the English Kingdom changed its name to Great Britain thus nullifying Article1 of the Treaty. Great Britain therefore consists only of England and Wales. Scotland is being unlawfully administered as it is not a partner; the union is fake.
DeleteI believe Spain is different because Catalonia signed up to the 1978 constitution that makes secession illegal. UK is a union that in theory either can leave.
DeleteWT it’s only a theory that Scotland can leave so that people like Swinney and others can punt the democratic deficit and Westminster will cave in to Scottish democracy if we vote for this or that. There is no union voluntary or not. As the other poster says the union is fake. A con job from the start.
DeleteThe question that should be asked is why does the SNP leadership persist in promoting the voluntary union lie.
Anon 10.55 I'm not an Act of Union propagandist, that there was one is undeniable but it's so lost in time that it menas nothing (that's my personal view) and thus is not part of the route to independence. The voluntary union lie has been propounded both by England and Scotland and that was both endorsed and undermined by the Section 30 based referendum of 2014. For me, the acceptance that the UK is NOT a unitary state (the unitary state idea being pushed in some quarters these days) makes 2014 a benchmark for both sides of the border. The acceptance of the geographical boundaries that were 'allowed' to vote in the referendum gave modern recognition to what defines the difference between WM and the state of Scotland. The fact that we lost doesn't alter the fact that the state of Scotland along with the reaffirmation in WM of the Claim of Right (passed without opposition) makes it harder for WM to put a total stop on the desire for self-determination. They can block it, they can ignore us and it is up to us to solve that problem but they cannot resile from their recognition of Scotland as an entity. So what? Not much, but it's a staging post, one that can always be pointed at. Independence is actually up to us. We have to take it. Are we ready for it? Do we want it enough? I don't know, but it's there for the taking and roughly 50pc of the population want it. The problem is our party of independence isn't ready for it, nor do they want it enough. It's depressing but that's where we are. It is up to us though.
DeleteCatalonia seems different in the fact that it has no right to seceed, they signed up to a unitary state in 1978 and that unfortunately is their benchmark, the one that Madrid can always point to. The Catalan party of independence was ready for it, they did want it enough, but the majority of the population didn't. Madrid saw this as a breach of the Spanish constitution and went in cracking heads (Kendal style). The point of interest here for me is that the Catalan party was prepared to do the hard thing in spite of their constitutional settlement, the SNP aren't prepared to do anything even with our favourable constitutional settlement. I'm not suggesting that Swinney sticks his head under a police truncheon, but it would be good if he could stick his neck out a bit, but he woan't because they don't want it enough or perhaps they don't want it at all. Who can say?
Anon 11.45 and Aug 7 10.55 Reread your comments and see your points. Sorry for not addressing them correctly. To add to my other post if it is up, my position is not how we got here, not what our constitutional set up really is, it's how we get out of this prison and the way we do that is up to us - it really is. Independence is taken, it can be a long game, it can be a short one, but as I said Do we want it enough? I do. Does the SNP? Presently, that is the most important issue we have to deal with.
DeleteYou say; “we'd practically be better off going into the election with no plan whatsoever than with the Swinney plan.”
ReplyDeleteI’d reword that for accuracy to: “we'd absolutely be better off going into the election with no plan whatsoever than with the Swinney plan.”
Just like the Culloden battle plan, it’s a guaranteed expressway to a signature defeat. Swinney, do you fancy yourself as a reborn Bonnie Prince?
Compelling viewing again. The move to video blogging is going very well.
ReplyDeleteI was hopeful JS would have a period of reflection after his initial statement was received so unfavourably, but to come straight out rubbishing any alternative is very disappointing. It feels like he's making moves to head off any challenge at conference.
Surely, we'll see some SNP MPs/MSPs break ranks in the coming days. It can't just be the grassroots who think the plan is dreadful.
Remember it’s not that long ago he was saying we need something like over 70% in the polls for a period of time before anything might happen on independence. That is now set aside for the current nonsense. Swinney is a complete time waster regarding independence.
DeleteExpectations of Sturgeon were high, and yet after she resigned and had an open field to kick the Independence ball around in, all she did was go on and on about her pathetic book and the GRRB.
ReplyDeleteExpectations of Swinney are low, and it would be impossible for him to do worse than those expectations.
Therefore maybe he'll be onwards and upwards, get an overall majority for which he'd need to convince 530,000 lost voters to vote SNP, both votes, no wasting votes on other parties on the List.
And for THAT he'd need a plan to actually convince us all to vote SNP.
Can he exceed the incredibly low expectations of him? Well, can you, punk?
"And for THAT he'd need a plan to actually convince us all to vote SNP."
DeleteIf anything he's doing the opposite.
He still thinks we're the same daft electorate who'll buy the same nonsense Sturgeon was selling.
“Same daft electorate. “ You can find examples on WGD of dafties.
DeleteHe's not rubbishing it - he's giving his opinion that he thinks it won't work and he ought to be given the chance at conference to go into the nitty gritty of why he thinks that. He's entitled to that explanation opportunity as much as anyone else is. If conference majority decide it must be the rebel plan - then if John thinks there is a danger in that, has explained his views - but nobody backs him and he feels he can't with conscience back the rebel plan - then it's highly likely he would choose to stand down in that circumstance anyway. If it's clear people express no confidence in him - I don't think John is the type who would stand in the way.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with J S is that he proposed his plan in the first place. He either knows that his plan is doomed to failure or he is hopelessly out of touch with reality. Either way, it’s not good, and right now the half million former SNP voters are I suspect waiting to see if he does anything to inspire confidence in the SNP. He has done nothing so far. I believe he is in the grip of the gender agenda and career brigade within SNP. Indy is not a priority for them. NHS is falling apart and the biggest issue for the clique is, quite literally, toilets. The competence of the govt has fallen dramatically in the past four or so years and confidence in the govt falls accordingly. Being better than the utter shitfest that is Westminster is no achievement. Sad times. I am still waiting for an apology from N S. In the meantime she and those within the clique are devoting time and energy to trying to deny the legality of the S C decision. Ten years of giving the wrong advice and implementing unlawful policies across a range of bodies really does not seem to trouble them, and that is worrying.
DeleteA clear issue here is that Swinney is essentially saying we need to vote SNP, win an outright majority, and that should trigger another referendum — following the same precedent as last time.
DeleteBut Swinney isn’t daft. He knows exactly how the d’Hondt system works in Scottish Parliament elections. He knows the 2011 majority was a mathematical fluke, and he knows full well that the chances of any party pulling that off again are incredibly remote — the system was designed to prevent it.
So why set a target he knows is next to impossible to aheieve?
Because it lets him pretend there’s a route to independence, while quietly banking on it never materialising. He’s misleading his supporters with a strategy he knows is dead in the water — and still has the brass neck to claim the rebel plan won’t work.
I honestly don't think Swinney has the level of cynicism required to do the 'pretend there's a route to independence' as a potential vote lure. Let's face it, all the other parties are playing the 'we can get independence faster if you vote for us' narrative - and they know they can't for the same reason the SNP can't.
DeleteHas to be something else going on in the background which we're not spotting the subtleties of. Interesting that Alyn Smith helped word the rebel motion. Maybe he's making a play for First Minister if he's standing and manages to get a vote in. Whatever people say about him - he's brilliant with the media and a cut above in that respect - never loses the heid and because of his past media experience - he's really really good at dealing with the UKplc media platforms. Even Andrew Neil never used to try it on with Smith. Interesting.
However, I see McKenna's Herald article headline re Kate Forbes 'The Last Reason to Vote SNP has just Walked out the Door'.
I don't think Swinney is intentionally setting out to mislead supporters - I think there's something we don't know about afoot. Nobody but nobody with all the years of Swinney's experience would compel him to a rash move like this is perceived to be. Maybe he just wants out as if wife is at a difficult stage of her MS as he talked about at the Fringe thing - and would rather be thrown out than be seen to walk away.
Whatever his reasons - I respect John Swinney. Re the post about the gender stuff above - I don't think John was deeply immersed in that - and I think the hysteria creation around the toilet stuff has been fuelled more by the Cherryites who are the ones who churn out the majority of stuff about it. I don't think the SNP themselves are obsessed with it - they're just waiting for institutions to commit to the structural maintenances required. I suspect Cherry keeps it on the front pages to give the impression that SNP are neglecting the domestic priorities - but I don't think that's the reality, but it serves Joanna and maintains the focus of attention on her - so looks like just another of her get back at the SNP ploys which she seems, for a KC, to have an inordinate amount of time to spend on.
We just have to wait and see. The rebels are likely to win out and John Swinney will let himself be flack scapegoat - and that takes guts when you're a permanent moving target for those who ironically label him a coward and are constantly manoeuvring behind the scenes - who don't step up to the public accountability plate themselves.
It doesn’t matter whether Swinney is tired, well-meaning, or trying to be noble. What matters is that he’s asking voters to back a strategy he knows is a dead end — and in doing so, he’s eroding trust in his Party even further. Implying that “something else must be going on” feels less like a serious analysis and more like a coping mechanism to avoid facing reality.
DeleteWe’re being asked to suspend disbelief and pretend there’s some hidden plan at play — when all the evidence points to more of the same as the last decade: deflection, delay, and decline.
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ReplyDeleteI dug this out James. P29, no ifs or buts, Salmond was just gonna do it. https://blog.stevenkellow.com/manifestos/snp-2011.pdf
ReplyDeleteAnon 8.20 thanks very much for this.
DeleteMr. Swinney is quite capable of a bit of bureaucratic manipulation to ensure that the opposition motion either never reaches the agenda or is lost in a forest of referring back. He can be quietly cynical when he feels the need.
ReplyDeleteEven WOS can see the error of J S’s ways. That is worrying and telling. Desperate times.
ReplyDeleteHow likely is the rebel motion to win?
ReplyDeleteIt may not even be reach the conference agenda.
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