Loopy, RefUK friendly company Find Out Now, have conducted a poll from the racist fringes of Facebook again. Scottish sub-sample (124) field work 6th Aug Con 16%, Lab 13%, LibDem 12%, RefUK 22%, SNP 28%, Green 6%.
The Hamilton by election suggests that a 22% estimate for Reform is on the low side. If they use the name 'Reform Scotland' for Holyrood I have a feeling they woud get more than the 26% they got in Middle Scotland Hamiltion.
I think the key question many people have now is: how exactly is the SNP going to be changed from within?
We've been told it's possible, but every serious attempt so far has either been blocked, side-lined, or outright suppressed by the leadership. Even the current 'rebel' independence plan might not even make it to the conference floor.
The reality is electoral victories are seen as endorsements — not just of the party, but of its leadership and strategy. So what exactly is meant to force any radical change if they keep winning elections anyway? There’s no real incentive to shift direction when the system keeps rewarding more of the same.
And that’s the real concern — that we’ll be sitting here in the run-up to the 2031 election, having the exact same discussion we’re having now. The same frustrations, the same empty promises, the same excuses. At a certain point, it starts to feel like that old line about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.
You can’t keep asking folk to pour energy into something if they feel like they're just wasting their time. People need to believe change is possible — and right now, there’s not much reason to think it is.
"At a certain point, it starts to feel like that old line about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results."
Anyone would think you're describing the people who keep voting Alba and keep being surprised that they don't win any seats. "Doh, it's almost like the party I'm voting for doesn't have enough support to win seats or something!" But hey, maybe switching to Liberate Scotland, an alliance with a tiny of fraction of Alba's miniscule support, will prove to be a more promising strategy. Hope springs eternal.
So what exactly is meant to force any radical change if they keep winning elections anyway? There’s no real incentive to shift direction when the system keeps rewarding more of the same.
This is good in theory. Unfortunately it's not guaranteed that withdrawing the rewards (electoral success) would lead to the desired reassessment. An election defeat can be interpreted in many ways, and the evidence from setbacks in the last few years is that the leadership tends to take it as a message that they've been *too* serious about independence. That's particularly likely to be the case if their voters appear to go to Unionist parties.
You're right that Alba and Liberate Scotland haven’t proven themselves electorally. But your response — that this means voters must continue to give wasted votes to the SNP — is circular. New parties can’t become viable if voters are told from the outset that they can’t win. Viability in AMS often comes from clearing the 5–6% threshold. With enough tactical support in one or two regions, that is entirely achievable — especially if SNP list votes are already going nowhere.
You also seem to be pinning all hope on internal SNP reform — but offer no reason to believe it will happen without electoral pressure. Parties do not tend to change course voluntarily when they continue to win. The argument that "we must vote SNP now and reform it later" has been repeated since at least 2017, yet the party has stagnated on independence strategy, centralised power, and narrowed internal debate. If the movement has no leverage to demand change, why would it happen?
"With enough tactical support in one or two regions, that is entirely achievable"
You accuse me of circular logic and then write a sentence like that?! No, it is not possible for Alba and Liberate Scotland to win list seats *because they don't have enough support*.
"You also seem to be pinning all hope on internal SNP reform — but offer no reason to believe it will happen without electoral pressure."
That is a false claim. I have pointed out in previous videos that if all else fails the SNP do run leadership elections, and that is where change can occur if it doesn't prove possible by other means.
Worst case scenario (which unfortunately is also quite likely). The SNP go with the unaltered Swinney plan into HR26 and get a middling sort of result. Most seats but well short of a majority and all their efforts are then on holding together a minority government with independence well off the table for the sake of Unionist approval of the budget etc. John Swinney still in charge sucking the life out of everything and deputy McAllan inspiring precisely nobody. That's not destroying the SNP.
If we're being frank though: We know all the candidates standing for the SNP in 2026... it's a difficult task to find any viable future Leader in that list. Not to mention one who'll radically shift the SNP to prioritise independence rather than just talking about it when there's an election on the horizon.
Quite enjoying Scot Goes Pod, now that you’ve found your stride, James.
I think where the pressure is most needed now is on Swinney and those around him to allow the rebel plan to get a fair hearing at conference, and, just as crucially, to do the same to his plans to limit future leadership elections. The true nature of the SNP will reveal itself when these contentious ploys are brought out into the light of open debate. The crucial part is ensuring they even get there.
You are absolutely correct in your latest assessment, James.
Campbell is, without a shadow of a doubt, a complete nutter, now only followed and believed by a shrinking buch of other complete nutters.
Scottish, and more especially UK politics, is in a state of tremendous flux, with fascistic racist garbage like Reform harnessing the votes of the dumbest, thickest, most racist twats on these islands and being actively promoted by gibbering idiots like Stewie himself.
As for Alba and the other indy-fringe parties in Scotland, as you rightly say, every one of them has shown itself to be totally incompetent, totally incoherent, hopelessly mismanaged and completely unable to attract Scottish voters.
They are simply a non-electable laughing stock and there is no sign whatever of that changing any time in the future.
So we are stuck with the imperfect SNP to vote for, as opposed to the imperfect other parties vying for our support and the SNP still remain the best option for achieving Scottish Independence, even with all their faults and missteps, because none of the other contenders will ever get remotely close to the public support required to have the political heft to do so.
Stewie and his lttle clique can shout and rant as much as they like, but it will have little or no effect on what happens next year. They do not matter.
I forecast that, urged on by him, most of his Scottish followers will vote for Farage's filth in any case, 'to save indy by killing it first'.
Whatever the merits of any plan or resolution, the SNP could get an overall majority in 2026 despite what some pundits say. And could win a good few on the List. I have a spreadsheet for the list seats, and take 2021 Holyrood constituency and list, just substitute the 2011 list results, all 8 of them, for both SNP and Greens in the 2021 list results, and instead of getting just 2 list seats, the SNP would have got 5 – for a total of 67 seats instead of 64, and an overall majority.
2026 will be different for the unionist parties, but the principle is the same. So to get an overall majority, all the SNP have to do is actually get out the vote, and fight the idea that spreading the votes around on the list will help independence. It needs one single strong party to have a majority. If some serious, energetic and popular new party sprung up and genuinely replaced the SNP as the Independence party, I’d vote for it. Both votes. But there isn’t one, and only a few thousand would vote for any of the current lot, apart from the Greens. And they have far too much baggage.
"I have a spreadsheet for the list seats, and take 2021 Holyrood constituency and list, just substitute the 2011 list results, all 8 of them, for both SNP and Greens in the 2021 list results, and instead of getting just 2 list seats, the SNP would have got 5 – for a total of 67 seats instead of 64, and an overall majority."
Now all you have to is explain how you propose to get the SNP back to 2011/2021 levels of support when the Scottish Government has such relatively poor ratings on policy delivery.
This is wishful thinking thh. It’s not about turnout, it’s about distribution. Even with sky-high SNP list turnout in 2021, they still won zero list seats in multiple regions, because d’Hondt punished them for winning too many constituencies.
Among the less politically engaged folk I know, there's a strong feeling that the Scottish government has turned stale and needs thrown out. That wasn't so in 2021. Where no one can agree is replaced by *who*? The enthusiasm for the SNP has sunk considerably since the last election, but there's no positive enthusiasm for their opponents, either. Not like there was in 2024 behind Labour. There's no one on the rise at all.
I've a bad feeling that where we're heading now is a reduced turnout, reduced seats for the SNP and Greens, and independence officially off the agenda. In other words: it's all going according to plan.
I’m minded to vote for Corbyn's party, if they look electable in the polls. I was guilty of wishcasting, back in 2021, when I voted Alba, in the hope the polls were wrong. They weren't.
I am 53 years old and I have never sat in a helicopter. Not even on the ground. I'm starting to think I'll never sit a Brexit-free Britain. Start the small boats - I'm off to Belgium!
Sure. Here's what the SNP conference could adopt for its 2026 manifesto:
"Manifesto to the Scottish People
The coming Holyrood Election is fraught with vital possibilities for the future of our nation. Scotland is faced with the question whether this generation wills it that she is to march out into the full sunlight of freedom, or is to remain in the shadow of a base imperialism that has brought and ever will bring in its train naught but evil for our race.
The SNP gives Scotland the opportunity of vindicating her honour and pursuing with renewed confidence the path of national salvation by rallying to the flag of the Scottish Republic.
The SNP aims at securing the establishment of that Republic.
1. By withdrawing the Scottish Representation from the British Parliament and by denying the right and opposing the will of the British Government or any other foreign Government to legislate for Scotland.
2. By making use of any and every means available to render impotent the power of England to hold Scotland in subjection by military force or otherwise.
3. By the establishment of a constituent assembly comprising persons chosen by Scottish constituencies as the supreme national authority to speak and act in the name of the Scottish people, and to develop Scotland's social, political and industrial life, for the welfare of the whole people of Scotland."
or similar adaptation. The Republic bit is optional. All it needs is some courage and determination - and integrity.
I disagree about withdrawing MPs. Our policy should be to disrupt parliament, to make it difficult for WM to conduct business. We need to trash their customs and traditions. Why leave disobedience to the public? Let our reps do the hard work. As I said before, we'd be better to elect boxers to punch their lights out than the insipid ones we have now.
Going to meeting in Perth tomorrow to try to push change in SNP on a step. No guarantees - just the best option at present. Certainly better than microbes fighting eachother in a single drop of water that political sectarians and cultists seem to favour.
Alba are my first choice party even though I don't agree with all of their policies, because as things stand in my view they are the only party with a credible plan to achieve independence for Scotland, so I will be doing as James says in this video and voting fir my first choice of Alba on the list.
If the SNP reject John Swinney's plan and vote in favour of using a majority of votes on the list vote for all pro-independence parties as a mandate for independence - not just politely requesting a Section 30 - then I may be persuaded to lend my constituency vote to the SNP. If they don't then it's unlikely I would vote SNP in the constituency vote, and I'll be looking for other options - and spoiling my ballot paper in protest is an option that I will be giving serious consideration to.
After all the very numerous historical battles and even deaths to get universal suffrage so that we can all cast our votes, it really does take a special type of idiot to spoil their ballot.
Loopy, RefUK friendly company Find Out Now, have conducted a poll from the racist fringes of Facebook again.
ReplyDeleteScottish sub-sample (124) field work 6th Aug
Con 16%, Lab 13%, LibDem 12%, RefUK 22%, SNP 28%, Green 6%.
As many as 22 % of the Scottish electorate are bonkers?
DeleteThe Hamilton by election suggests that a 22% estimate for Reform is on the low side. If they use the name 'Reform Scotland' for Holyrood I have a feeling they woud get more than the 26% they got in Middle Scotland Hamiltion.
DeleteI think the key question many people have now is: how exactly is the SNP going to be changed from within?
ReplyDeleteWe've been told it's possible, but every serious attempt so far has either been blocked, side-lined, or outright suppressed by the leadership. Even the current 'rebel' independence plan might not even make it to the conference floor.
The reality is electoral victories are seen as endorsements — not just of the party, but of its leadership and strategy. So what exactly is meant to force any radical change if they keep winning elections anyway? There’s no real incentive to shift direction when the system keeps rewarding more of the same.
And that’s the real concern — that we’ll be sitting here in the run-up to the 2031 election, having the exact same discussion we’re having now. The same frustrations, the same empty promises, the same excuses. At a certain point, it starts to feel like that old line about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.
You can’t keep asking folk to pour energy into something if they feel like they're just wasting their time. People need to believe change is possible — and right now, there’s not much reason to think it is.
"At a certain point, it starts to feel like that old line about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results."
DeleteAnyone would think you're describing the people who keep voting Alba and keep being surprised that they don't win any seats. "Doh, it's almost like the party I'm voting for doesn't have enough support to win seats or something!" But hey, maybe switching to Liberate Scotland, an alliance with a tiny of fraction of Alba's miniscule support, will prove to be a more promising strategy. Hope springs eternal.
So what exactly is meant to force any radical change if they keep winning elections anyway? There’s no real incentive to shift direction when the system keeps rewarding more of the same.
DeleteThis is good in theory. Unfortunately it's not guaranteed that withdrawing the rewards (electoral success) would lead to the desired reassessment. An election defeat can be interpreted in many ways, and the evidence from setbacks in the last few years is that the leadership tends to take it as a message that they've been *too* serious about independence. That's particularly likely to be the case if their voters appear to go to Unionist parties.
You're right that Alba and Liberate Scotland haven’t proven themselves electorally. But your response — that this means voters must continue to give wasted votes to the SNP — is circular. New parties can’t become viable if voters are told from the outset that they can’t win. Viability in AMS often comes from clearing the 5–6% threshold. With enough tactical support in one or two regions, that is entirely achievable — especially if SNP list votes are already going nowhere.
ReplyDeleteYou also seem to be pinning all hope on internal SNP reform — but offer no reason to believe it will happen without electoral pressure. Parties do not tend to change course voluntarily when they continue to win. The argument that "we must vote SNP now and reform it later" has been repeated since at least 2017, yet the party has stagnated on independence strategy, centralised power, and narrowed internal debate. If the movement has no leverage to demand change, why would it happen?
"With enough tactical support in one or two regions, that is entirely achievable"
DeleteYou accuse me of circular logic and then write a sentence like that?! No, it is not possible for Alba and Liberate Scotland to win list seats *because they don't have enough support*.
"You also seem to be pinning all hope on internal SNP reform — but offer no reason to believe it will happen without electoral pressure."
That is a false claim. I have pointed out in previous videos that if all else fails the SNP do run leadership elections, and that is where change can occur if it doesn't prove possible by other means.
Worst case scenario (which unfortunately is also quite likely). The SNP go with the unaltered Swinney plan into HR26 and get a middling sort of result. Most seats but well short of a majority and all their efforts are then on holding together a minority government with independence well off the table for the sake of Unionist approval of the budget etc. John Swinney still in charge sucking the life out of everything and deputy McAllan inspiring precisely nobody.
DeleteThat's not destroying the SNP.
“That’s not destroying the SNP” correct. It is just more of the same of the last 11 years- purgatory.
DeleteIf we're being frank though: We know all the candidates standing for the SNP in 2026... it's a difficult task to find any viable future Leader in that list. Not to mention one who'll radically shift the SNP to prioritise independence rather than just talking about it when there's an election on the horizon.
DeleteHas anyone suggested Mairi Gougeon?
DeleteMairi Gougeon isn't standing for election.
Delete6.58 Mairi Gougeon is standing down next year.
DeleteCampbell is a radge
ReplyDeleteQuite enjoying Scot Goes Pod, now that you’ve found your stride, James.
ReplyDeleteI think where the pressure is most needed now is on Swinney and those around him to allow the rebel plan to get a fair hearing at conference, and, just as crucially, to do the same to his plans to limit future leadership elections. The true nature of the SNP will reveal itself when these contentious ploys are brought out into the light of open debate. The crucial part is ensuring they even get there.
You are absolutely correct in your latest assessment, James.
ReplyDeleteCampbell is, without a shadow of a doubt, a complete nutter, now only followed and believed by a shrinking buch of other complete nutters.
Scottish, and more especially UK politics, is in a state of tremendous flux, with fascistic racist garbage like Reform harnessing the votes of the dumbest, thickest, most racist twats on these islands and being actively promoted by gibbering idiots like Stewie himself.
As for Alba and the other indy-fringe parties in Scotland, as you rightly say,
every one of them has shown itself to be totally incompetent, totally incoherent, hopelessly mismanaged and completely unable to attract Scottish voters.
They are simply a non-electable laughing stock and there is no sign whatever of that changing any time in the future.
So we are stuck with the imperfect SNP to vote for, as opposed to the imperfect other parties vying for our support and the SNP still remain the best option for achieving Scottish Independence, even with all their faults and missteps, because none of the other contenders will ever get remotely close to the public support required to have the political heft to do so.
Stewie and his lttle clique can shout and rant as much as they like, but it will have little or no effect on what happens next year.
They do not matter.
I forecast that, urged on by him, most of his Scottish followers will vote for Farage's filth in any case, 'to save indy by killing it first'.
So far are they gone.
“Imperfect SNP” more like not fit for purpose SNP.
DeleteWhatever the merits of any plan or resolution, the SNP could get an overall majority in 2026 despite what some pundits say. And could win a good few on the List. I have a spreadsheet for the list seats, and take 2021 Holyrood constituency and list, just substitute the 2011 list results, all 8 of them, for both SNP and Greens in the 2021 list results, and instead of getting just 2 list seats, the SNP would have got 5 – for a total of 67 seats instead of 64, and an overall majority.
ReplyDelete2026 will be different for the unionist parties, but the principle is the same. So to get an overall majority, all the SNP have to do is actually get out the vote, and fight the idea that spreading the votes around on the list will help independence. It needs one single strong party to have a majority. If some serious, energetic and popular new party sprung up and genuinely replaced the SNP as the Independence party, I’d vote for it. Both votes. But there isn’t one, and only a few thousand would vote for any of the current lot, apart from the Greens. And they have far too much baggage.
Take Ireland in the 1918 UK General Election. Of the 105 seats, the Unionists took 22, and the devolutionist IPP took just 6. The Sinn Féin took 73 and a large Independence majority. Could you imagine where Ireland might not be now if say the Sinn Féin had taken just 50 seats and been at the mercy of the IPP with their resulting 29? On their knees to the Charlie Boy and God Bless their PM Starmer! Pass the buicéad tinn.
"I have a spreadsheet for the list seats, and take 2021 Holyrood constituency and list, just substitute the 2011 list results, all 8 of them, for both SNP and Greens in the 2021 list results, and instead of getting just 2 list seats, the SNP would have got 5 – for a total of 67 seats instead of 64, and an overall majority."
DeleteNow all you have to is explain how you propose to get the SNP back to 2011/2021 levels of support when the Scottish Government has such relatively poor ratings on policy delivery.
This is wishful thinking thh. It’s not about turnout, it’s about distribution. Even with sky-high SNP list turnout in 2021, they still won zero list seats in multiple regions, because d’Hondt punished them for winning too many constituencies.
DeleteHow? By wishcasting?
DeleteAmong the less politically engaged folk I know, there's a strong feeling that the Scottish government has turned stale and needs thrown out. That wasn't so in 2021. Where no one can agree is replaced by *who*? The enthusiasm for the SNP has sunk considerably since the last election, but there's no positive enthusiasm for their opponents, either. Not like there was in 2024 behind Labour. There's no one on the rise at all.
I've a bad feeling that where we're heading now is a reduced turnout, reduced seats for the SNP and Greens, and independence officially off the agenda. In other words: it's all going according to plan.
I’m minded to vote for Corbyn's party, if they look electable in the polls. I was guilty of wishcasting, back in 2021, when I voted Alba, in the hope the polls were wrong. They weren't.
Reform are doing remarkably well in Scotland, and Jeremy Corbyn is currently a Labour MP.
DeleteNo he isn't! He hasn't been a Labour MP for years.
DeleteI am 53 years old and I have never sat in a helicopter. Not even on the ground. I'm starting to think I'll never sit a Brexit-free Britain. Start the small boats - I'm off to Belgium!
DeleteSure. Here's what the SNP conference could adopt for its 2026 manifesto:
ReplyDelete"Manifesto to the Scottish People
The coming Holyrood Election is fraught with vital possibilities for the future of our nation. Scotland is faced with the question whether this generation wills it that she is to march out into the full sunlight of freedom, or is to remain in the shadow of a base imperialism that has brought and ever will bring in its train naught but evil for our race.
The SNP gives Scotland the opportunity of vindicating her honour and pursuing with renewed confidence the path of national salvation by rallying to the flag of the Scottish Republic.
The SNP aims at securing the establishment of that Republic.
1. By withdrawing the Scottish Representation from the British Parliament and by denying the right and opposing the will of the British Government or any other foreign Government to legislate for Scotland.
2. By making use of any and every means available to render impotent the power of England to hold Scotland in subjection by military force or otherwise.
3. By the establishment of a constituent assembly comprising persons chosen by Scottish constituencies as the supreme national authority to speak and act in the name of the Scottish people, and to develop Scotland's social, political and industrial life, for the welfare of the whole people of Scotland."
or similar adaptation. The Republic bit is optional. All it needs is some courage and determination - and integrity.
https://celt.ucc.ie/published/E900009/index.html
I disagree about withdrawing MPs. Our policy should be to disrupt parliament, to make it difficult for WM to conduct business. We need to trash their customs and traditions. Why leave disobedience to the public? Let our reps do the hard work. As I said before, we'd be better to elect boxers to punch their lights out than the insipid ones we have now.
DeleteI'm in two minds about that. But that was slightly adapted from the Sinn Féin manifesto for the UK 1918 General Election - and it worked for them. Here's what I posted earlier:
Delete"Take Ireland in the 1918 UK General Election. Of the 105 seats, the Unionists took 22, and the devolutionist IPP took just 6. The Sinn Féin took 73 and a large Independence majority."
https://celt.ucc.ie/published/E900009/index.htm
Someone give John Swinney a copy.
Even Sandi Toksvig thinks its kooky.
ReplyDeleteGoing to meeting in Perth tomorrow to try to push change in SNP on a step. No guarantees - just the best option at present. Certainly better than microbes fighting eachother in a single drop of water that political sectarians and cultists seem to favour.
ReplyDeleteAlba are my first choice party even though I don't agree with all of their policies, because as things stand in my view they are the only party with a credible plan to achieve independence for Scotland, so I will be doing as James says in this video and voting fir my first choice of Alba on the list.
ReplyDeleteIf the SNP reject John Swinney's plan and vote in favour of using a majority of votes on the list vote for all pro-independence parties as a mandate for independence - not just politely requesting a Section 30 - then I may be persuaded to lend my constituency vote to the SNP. If they don't then it's unlikely I would vote SNP in the constituency vote, and I'll be looking for other options - and spoiling my ballot paper in protest is an option that I will be giving serious consideration to.
After all the very numerous historical battles and even deaths to get universal suffrage so that we can all cast our votes, it really does take a special type of idiot to spoil their ballot.
Delete