Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / The National, 7th-11th April 2025)
Yes 56% (+4)
No 44% (-4)
I'm about to go and get some fresh air before the sun goes down, but when I get back I'll update this post with analysis.
UPDATE: OK, so I'm back. As most of you know, Find Out Now have been conducting independence polls for several years, and all but one of those polls have shown an outright Yes lead. So whenever another one comes along showing the same thing, we must sound that pesky "settled will" klaxon. However, this goes well beyond that norm because as far as I can see 56-44 is the biggest Yes lead Find Out Now have ever shown. There are two caveats to put on that: a) Find Out Now only started polling on independence a few months after the peak period for Yes in the autumn of 2020, and b) any individual poll that shows something a bit out of the ordinary has to be treated with caution until and unless more polls come along that show the same pattern. However, in this case it's not hard to see a plausible reason why Find Out Now might be picking up a completely new boost for Yes, because this is the first independence poll from any firm to be entirely conducted after Liz Kendall's hammer-the-vulnerable speech to the House of Commons. (The YouGov poll of 17th-21st March which excited KC so much took place partly before the speech and partly afterwards.)
It's also worth noting that five of the last seven independence polls across all polling firms have shown a Yes lead - and the two that didn't were both from YouGov, which is known to be one of the most No-friendly firms and thus a 'house effect' may have been at play.
As of yet there's no sign of the data tables on the Find Out Now site, although The National's write-up does reveal a familiar disparity among age groups, with under-30s backing Yes by a 3-1 margin, and over-75s backing No by a 2-1 margin.
nigel farage will win indy for us
ReplyDeletein his ugly frog like coupon we see the real face of england
siamese twinned to a nation of cunts
please let it end
I would hope we win Independence on positive reasons rather than your nonsense. I take it your a britnat muddying the waters
DeleteIt's not going to be won by the indy movement atm.
DeleteAnon at 7.06 pm is a Britnat troll.
DeleteHe's wetting himself because his hero Nigel is coming up to Hamilton.
DeleteWestminster parties swinging too far to the right. It might appeal to a majority of Englanders... But it's extremely off-putting to the vast majority of Scots
ReplyDeleteSo have we surpassed the threshold SNP supporters insist we need to reach before doing anything yet or na?
ReplyDeleteIFS is raging lol
ReplyDeleteNo I am not raging. You are becoming very predictable Skier with your repetitive comment. Pity you are not so good with your own predictions.
DeleteRun along back to the mad House that is alba and enjoy tommy Sheridan.
DeleteIFS isn't a member of Alba, you cretinous dunce.
DeleteTbf to him he didn't say he was.
DeleteThen why would he be told to 'run back' to them? Declan is probably the thickest poster on here, with a long track record of getting things wrong. Don't credit him with intelligence he patently doesn't have.
DeleteDeclan I have never been a member of Alba and I didnae vote for Alba last year. But you know that don't you. You just love your little lies Skier.
DeleteIn fact I have a growing contempt for politicians and their parties. Labour are currently at the top of that list.
SNP deserve the credit for this.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
DeleteSo Alba and the ISP deserve the credit instead ?
DeleteAnon at 4.007pm. I never said that. Try and improve your reading skills. I asked a question. I'll spell it out for you. Why do the SNP deserve the credit for the increase in yes to 56%?
DeleteIf Prof Ailsa Henderson’s figures are correct (ie. 57% of folk born outside the UK voted No, and 72% of folk born in rUK voted NO, and it’s not clear that they were necessarily correct in 2014, and they certainly won’t be now, and taking into account the 2022 census data) the headline 12% lead for Yes in this poll would equate to an 18% net preference for independence amongst autochthonous Scots. I’m not arguing for a “nativist” franchise, in my opinion that ship has sailed. I’m merely asking what kind of people would vote in a constitutional referendum in a country in which they weren’t born, when they know their Scots neighbours favour independence by a near 20% margin of victory? We all ken the answer, and it’s cnuts.
ReplyDelete“……….. when they know their Scots neighbours favour independence by a near 20% margin of victory? ………”
DeleteWhat utter nonsense!
Embarrassing stuff!
KC your regular - "nonsense, embarrassing, desperate, bullshit " comments are not an argument or even a project fear type of Better Together comment. You are wasting your time.
DeleteIFS, I noticed on a previous thread you’re still spouting your “colony” nonsense.
DeleteThat really is embarrassing!
Anon at 8.44 ... you are only making a fool of yourself.
DeleteIFS has defended noncing before.
DeleteAnon at 8.44pm is just the Britnat KC.
DeleteAnon at 6.24pm is just a troll with no self respect posting lies.
Good news.
ReplyDeleteNot all that surprising though, given the Labour Unionist UK Govt's lurch to the Right to try to outflank Farage and their ramping up of English Nationalism in their so-called priorities.
Most Rational Scots will find all that as appetising as a bowl of cold vomit.
Important question: What happens now? Genuinely what's next?
ReplyDeleteStep 1. Get more Scots supporting indy & see what reflected in the polls.
Job done.
What's Step 2?
Step 1: Plug in.
DeleteStep 2: Get elected.
Step 3: There is no step 3!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihOxl1v5BRk
Jeff Goldblum got the strategy right, back in the nineties.
Looks like I will have to point out the obvious implication of this poll.
ReplyDeleteA 56% yes poll shows the gap between independence supporters and the the SNP has increased substantially. Now approximately 20 to 25%.
Is the SNP propagandist Declan ( Skier) greeting into his SNP rule book?
Are ISP attempting a rebrand?
ReplyDeleteThey're saying they're now working under the 'Liberate Scotland' umbrella but it just seems to be them with another name.
They've got the support of Barrhead dude and his amigos. add to that the iSP and they'll be able to hold their gathering in a medium size hotel room.
Delete60+% for five years and you might get the international community to start showing an interest.
ReplyDeleteThe reason? Catalunya.
Less than a decade ago support for secession was well over 60% in some polls. Now it's dropped back to around 40%.
Your ignorance comes through in spades with your reference to Catalunya. Ta for the laugh. Shame it’s at you, silly ignorant wee man.
DeleteAh yes. The standard ScotNat response to the Catalunya question these days. Funny how there were so many Catalunyan flags on the pre COVID AUOB marches and we were told at the time how Scotland / Catalunya's indy journeys were identical.
DeleteThat's all in the bin now isn't it?
Anon at 5.07. What you claim is a straight lie. The constitutional position in Catalonia is completely different to that in Scotland. It has never been claimed otherwise, except by unionist liars. Oh, that would be you. Panic is it seems setting in. A 12% lead for yes. Lovely stuff. People can express support for groups other than those in identical situations to themselves. You do know that? Perhaps not.
DeleteNot talking about the constitutional situation. Never was. That is obviously different.
DeleteI'm talking about public support. In Catalunya, support for independence has dropped right off. 20%+ down from 8 years ago. It's particularly low amongst young people. Why? Because the tired old arguments for Catalunyan independence became the establishment. Young people typically reject establishment positions and the wider population lost faith in a Yes movement which had become stale and was going nowhere. Sound familiar?
Have a big party about this outlying poll result if you wish but the long term trend is a big flat plateau. That will slide downwards in the coming years.
we were told at the time how Scotland / Catalunya's indy journeys were identical
DeleteCitation needed
Anon at 6.20. Back-pedalling furiously but no one believes you. You lied. You got called out for lying. Stop digging. Go and lie down. We know you are hurting.
DeleteBackpedaling? No need. Hurting? Hah! Absolutely not. That would be you surely.
DeleteEven after Brexit, Johnson, COVID, Truss, Starmer, Reeves, Kendall and having a hand picked leader, feted by the international community, you're having to desperately cling on to an obvious outlier from an indy friendly pollster to pretend there's been any movement towards independence in a decade. No wonder you're so salty.
Excellent news 56%. And that's without campaigning. What altered you to the polls existence?
ReplyDeleteI suspect 'altered' should read 'alerted'.... yes?
DeleteAt our constituency candidate selection meeting, which was quite well attended, both candidates, the quite good one and the chameleonlike opportunist, felt the need to assert their active support for an independence centred strategy.
ReplyDeleteOne made a decent fist of it the other cobbled together some platitudes presumably from a party leadership 'play book'.
There is a chance of progress now. Time for money where mouth it. For the mutual abusers on here - cut the 'I said - s(he) said' crap and get working !
I take it you can evidence the play book or is it just made up?
DeleteAnon at 9.11. Your village wants you to go home.
DeleteAnon 09:11 - read the words you very silly person.
DeletePlay book doesn’t exist then. Whose silly now.
DeleteAnon at 1.09. You were told to get back to the village. So go. And maybe try some school attendance. Your literacy level is very poor.
DeleteI see the Republic of Ireland has wages considerably higher than that of its enforced neighbour in the north. Remember when that was never the case. independence hasn’t held Ireland back. Incidentally “The Whitegate refinery, near Whitegate, County Cork, is Ireland's only oil refinery. It has a capacity of 75,000 barrels of oil per day, sufficient to provide 40 percent of Ireland's fuel requirements. It was commissioned in 1959 and was redeveloped several times and produces a range of petroleum products including from the North Sea” Any chance Ireland will close it?
ReplyDeleteLove the smell of Yoons melting in the morning.
ReplyDeleteGreat start to the day.
No opinion poll will win anything
ReplyDeleteOnly a concerted, spearheaded campaign can do that.
I see no spears